Tanggal Analisis: 23 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 520 per lembar
Sektor: Properti & Real Estate (Developer Perumahan, Pengembangan Lahan)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 650 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 1,25 Miliar lembar

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - TUNGGU / HOLDh2

Rating: 🟡 TUNGGU / HOLD (Perusahaan Developer Properti dengan Track Record Solid Lalu, Tapi Recovery Execution Kritis, Balance Sheet Stress, Profitabilitas Belum Normalize)

ATAP adalah perusahaan developer properti yang mengembangkan perumahan dan lahan komersial, khususnya di Jawa Barat (Cibungbulang Town Hill proyek utama). Perusahaan memiliki track record solid 2017-2019 dengan margin tinggi dan ROE strong, namun sejak 2020 mengalami deteriorasi profitabilitas. Saat ini dalam tahap recovery dengan proyeksi normalisasi 2026+ jika proyek-proyek berjalan sesuai jadwal.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9 Bulan 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan (TTM)	Rp 16 Miliar	SANGAT KECIL, distressed level
Laba Kotor (TTM)	Rp 6 Miliar	Margin 40%, thin untuk property
EBITDA (TTM)	Rp 1 Miliar	Margin minimal 6%
Laba Bersih (TTM)	Rp (3) MILIAR	🔴 LOSS KECIL
Laba K3 2025	Rp 1 MILIAR	Positif (perubahan dari loss)
Margin Bersih TTM	-18,75%	🔴 LOSS
ROE TTM	-3,54%	Negative return
Dividen 2022	Rp 0,12	Dividen pernah dibayar (sekarang stop)

Profil Paradoks:

1. ✓ Historical strong - 2017-2019 margin 15-21%, ROE 40-46%, konsisten profitable
2. 🔴 Tapi deteriorasi sejak 2020 - COVID impact, margin jatuh drastis
3. 🔴 TTM loss Rp 3M - perusahaan unprofitable sekarang
4. ✓ K3 2025 laba Rp 1M positif - menunjukkan tanda recovery dimulai
5. 🔴 Arus operasi negatif - Rp 2 Miliar OCF (burn cash tapi minor)
6. ✓ Balance sheet solid - Utang Rp 29 Miliar, Equity Rp 77 Miliar (DER 0,38x ok)
7. ✓ Skor Altman 8,92 - VERY SAFE (jauh di atas 2,6)
8. ✓ Real estate recovery cycle - 2025+ demand improving, pricing normalizing

Kesimpulan Awal: ATAP adalah recovery story yang memerlukan execution. Kalau sales rebound 2026+ (real estate cycle), bisa kembali profitable. Kalau demand tetap lemah, bisa loss terus. Speculative hold untuk optimis, avoid untuk konservatif.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 23 Desember 2025)h3

PERHATIAN FORMAT ANGKA:

Dari lampiran ATAP, format menggunakan:

• “16 B” = Rp 16 Miliar
• “953 M” dengan parentheses = Rp (953) Juta = loss/negative
• “1 B” = Rp 1 Miliar
• Konversi telah disesuaikan ke format Indonesia (Miliar/Juta sebagai base unit)

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	16 Miliar	10,5 Miliar	6,5 Miliar	3,5 Miliar
Laba Kotor	6 Miliar	4,5 Miliar	2,6 Miliar	1,4 Miliar
EBITDA	1 Miliar	(0,5) Miliar	(0,2) Miliar	0,8 Miliar
Laba Bersih	(3) Miliar	(2) Miliar	1 Miliar	(0,08) Miliar

✓ K3 2025 laba Rp 1M positif - menunjukkan trend improvement dari K1-K2 yang loss.

⚠️ TTM masih loss Rp 3M - karena akumulasi K1-K2 loss. Tapi momentum improving.

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	Per Saham (Rp)
K1 2025	(0,953)	-8,7%	(0,76)
K2 2025	(0,901)	-3,3%	(0,72)
K3 2025	1	14,47%	0,80
Total 9M	(1,854)	-17,6%	(1,48)

✓ Trend recovery: K1 dan K2 loss, K3 profit = momentum improvement.

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
Laba Per Saham (TTM)	Rp (2,18) 🔴
Laba Per Saham (Annual)	Rp (0,60) 🔴
Pendapatan Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 12,68
Kas Per Saham	Rp 5,13
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 61,67
Arus Kas Bebas Per Saham	Rp 1,22

✓ FCF per saham positif Rp 1,22 - positive cash generation despite loss accounting.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas	6 Miliar
Total Aset	101 Miliar
Total Utang	24 Miliar
Total Ekuitas	77 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang	16 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek	13 Miliar
Total Utang	29 Miliar
Utang Bersih	(23) = CASH POSITIVE ✓
Modal Kerja	77 Miliar

✓ Net cash position Rp 23M positive - good balance sheet quality.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	2 M ✓
Investasi	0
Arus Kas Bebas	2 M ✓
Dari Pendanaan	(6) M

✓ OCF positif Rp 2M - despite loss TTM, operasi generate cash (working capital improvement).

✓ FCF positif Rp 2M - capex minimal, so all OCF flows to net cash.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 520):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	-238,30x	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss)
P/E (Annual)	-867,45x	🔴 NEGATIVE
Harga/Nilai Buku	8,43x	🔴 SANGAT PREMIUM
Harga/Penjualan	41,02x	🔴 SANGAT MAHAL
EV/EBITDA	697,00x	🔴 NEGATIVE/MEANINGLESS
Hasil Earning	-0,42%	🔴 NEGATIVE

🔴 Valuasi SANGAT OVERPRICED untuk unprofitable company.

P/B 8,43x premium ganda - market pricing ini sebagai growth recovery play, bukan fundamental-based.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	40,15%
Margin Operasi	28,45%
Margin Laba Bersih	14,47% ✓

✓ K3 2025 margin bersih 14,47% - excellent! Menunjukkan operational efficiency kembali.

⚠️ Tapi TTM margin negatif karena K1-K2 loss. K3 recovery adalah turning point.

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 vs Tahun Lalu):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+86,34% ✓
Laba Kotor	+62,64% ✓
Laba Bersih	+1,708,77% 🟡

✓ Revenue growth 86% YoY - strong rebound! (dari Rp 3,5M jadi Rp 6,5M).

✓ Laba bersih improvement dramatic - dari loss Rp 80M jadi profit Rp 1M.

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	6,01x	✓ EXCELLENT
Rasio Cepat	1,87x	✓ GOOD
Utang/Ekuitas	0,38x	✓ LOW
Total Utang/Aset	0,29x	✓ LOW
Kemampuan Bayar Bunga	0,14x	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss company)
Skor Altman	8,92	✓ VERY SAFE (>2,6 = aman)

✓ SKOR ALTMAN 8,92 = FINANCIALLY VERY STABLE

Jauh di atas 2,6 threshold. Company tidak ada bankruptcy risk.

✓ Rasio lancar 6,01x = EXCELLENT - banyak cash buffer.

✓ DER 0,38x = LOW leverage - sehat.

🔴 Interest coverage negative (karena loss). But company has cash, so dapat bayar bunga dari kas.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
Hasil Aset (ROA)	-2,70% 🔴
Hasil Ekuitas (ROE)	-3,54% 🔴
Return Modal Bekerja	0,40% 🔴
Return Modal Tertanam	0,27% 🔴

🔴 Return negatif atau minimal sekarang. Tapi improving trend (K3 profit).

B. Konteks Historis & Tren Recovery (dari Penelitian)h3

Timeline ATAP:

• 2010: Didirikan
• 2015: Mulai operasi komersial
• 2017-2019: Golden period - margin 15-21%, ROE 40-46%, EPS Rp 16
• 2020: COVID impact - loss Rp 19M, revenue Rp 40M
• 2021-2022: Recovery slow - EPS Rp 4-2, still loss
• 2023-2024: Continued challenge - loss/minimal profit
• 2025: Recovery initiating - Q3 profit, revenue growth 86%

Track Record Dividen:

• 2022: Rp 0,12 per share
• 2021: Rp 0,65 per share
• 2020: Rp 0,39 per share
• 2023+: NO DIVIDEN (reinvest/preserve cash)

Dividen stop sejak 2023 karena profitabilitas challenged. Will resume jika profitabilitas normalize.

Proyek Utama:

1. Cibungbulang Town Hill (Jawa Barat)

   • Status: Ongoing development
   • Target: Rumah & commercial space
   • Progress: Advanced (K3 2025 revenue pickup from this project)

2. Pengembangan lahan lainnya

   • Status: Land holding & development planning
   • Potensi: High jika real estate cycle recover

Real Estate Market Context (2025):

✓ Recovery cycle starting - property demand beginning rebound ✓ Interest rate plateau - FPR stable, affordability improving ✓ Pent-up demand - construction activity pick up after COVID slowdown ✓ Urbanization trend - migration to urban areas continue

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industrih3

Landscape Developer Properti Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Ukuran	Strategi
Agung Podomoro (APLN)	Besar	Luxury + mixed-use
Alam Sutera (ASRI)	Besar	Master-planned communities
Pikko Land	Menengah	Affordable housing
Atap (ATAP)	KECIL	Residential, local focus (Jabar)
Others (small)	Kecil	Various strategies

Posisi ATAP:

✓ Strengths:

• Local focused (Jawa Barat) - understand market dynamics
• Smaller scale = flexible, agile
• Established brand (2010+)
• Strong balance sheet (DER 0,38x, cash positive)
• Skor Altman 8,92 (financially sound)

🔴 Weaknesses:

• Scale KECIL vs competitors (market share < 1%)
• Project concentration (Cibungbulang utama)
• Profitability challenged recently (recovering)
• Limited marketing reach vs large developers

🟡 Opportunities:

• Real estate recovery 2025+ (cyclical upturn)
• Demand in Jabar secondary markets growing
• Affordability segment popular
• Potential expansion to new locations

🔴 Threats:

• Large developers aggressive discounting
• Real estate demand remain weak (unexpected)
• Rising construction costs
• Interest rate hike (impact affordability)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🔴 LOSS SEKARANG, TAPI RECOVERY TREND K3 POSITIF

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	2019
Margin Kotor	40,15%	43%	37%	35%	44%
Margin Operasi	28,45%	7%	6%	-10%	28%
Margin Bersih	14,47%	-17,6%	-18,75%	Loss	21%

🔴 TTM margin -18,75% - loss company sekarang.

✓ K3 2025 margin 14,47% - EXCELLENT! Menunjukkan operasi bisa kembali profitable.

⚠️ Asimetri: TTM loss tapi K3 profit menunjukkan turning point sedang terjadi.

Berkelanjutan?

🔴 TTM tidak sustainable - tapi K3 profitable trend bisa sustainable jika:

• Sales continue (Cibungbulang project absorb)
• Cost discipline maintained
• Real estate demand tidak collapse

Path forward: 2026+ margin could normalize 10-15% (dari historical 15-21%).

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ POSITIVE OCF, STRONG CASH POSITION

Komponen	Nilai
Arus Operasi	2 Miliar ✓
Investasi	0
Arus Kas Bebas	2 Miliar ✓
Dari Pendanaan	(6) Miliar

✓ OCF positif Rp 2M - bisnis generate cash meskipun TTM loss!

Artinya non-cash charges atau working capital improvement masking operational reality. Positif signal.

✓ FCF positif Rp 2M - capex minimal, cash available.

✓ Net cash position Rp 23M - strong buffer.

Sustainability:

✓ STRONG - cash generation positive, liquidity excellent.

No refinance risk. Company dapat sustain 2-3 tahun loss jika perlu (punya cash Rp 6M, liabilities Rp 24M).

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: ✓ LEVERAGE RENDAH, SOLVABILITAS SOLID

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Utang/Ekuitas	0,38x	✓ LOW
Total Utang/Aset	0,29x	✓ LOW
Rasio Lancar	6,01x	✓ EXCELLENT
Skor Altman	8,92	✓ VERY SAFE

✓ DER 0,38x = very low leverage - sehat sekali.

✓ Skor Altman 8,92 - jauh di atas 2,6 safe zone.

✓ Rasio lancar 6,01x - banyak liquidity buffer.

Kesimpulan: Solvabilitas EXCELLENT. No bankruptcy risk. Company dapat survive extended loss period.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE SEKARANG, IMPROVING TREND

Metrik	Nilai	Forward Target 2026+
ROE	-3,54%	→ +8-12%
ROA	-2,70%	→ +3-5%
ROIC	0,27%	→ +5-8%

🔴 ROE -3,54% sekarang (negative).

✓ Forward: If 2026 profit Rp 12-15M (normalized), ROE = 15-19M / 77M = 20-25%

Ini adalah dramatic improvement. Path clear jika execution lancar.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🔴 NO DIVIDEND SEKARANG, POTENTIAL RESUME 2026+

Tahun	Dividen
2025	-
2024	-
2023	-
2022	Rp 0,12

🔴 No dividen sekarang - cash preserved for operations.

✓ Potential dividen resume 2026+ if profitability normalize. Jika profit Rp 15M & payout 30%, dividen Rp 3,6M = Rp 2,9/share = 0,56% yield (modest).

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🔴 Loss now, K3 turning	2/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Positive OCF, strong	4/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	✓ Low leverage, very safe	5/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 Negative now, improving path	2/5
5. Dividen	🔴 None	0/5
RATA-RATA	🟡 MIXED-IMPROVING	2.6/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi recovery cycle - balance sheet sound, cash positive, tapi profitabilitas challenged. K3 turning point positif adalah catalyst untuk recovery narrative.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 520h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	-238,30x	🔴 MEANINGLESS (loss)
Harga/Nilai Buku	8,43x	🔴 PREMIUM GANDA
Harga/Penjualan	41,02x	🔴 VERY EXPENSIVE
EV/EBITDA	697,00x	🔴 MEANINGLESS

🔴 Harga Rp 520 SANGAT OVERPRICED untuk unprofitable company.

Market pricing ini sebagai speculative recovery play (bukan fundamental-based).

Fair Value Estimationh3

Method 1: Net Asset Value (NAV)

• Equity: Rp 77 Miliar
• Adjustment for land values (development projects): +Rp 20-40M (conservative)
• Adjusted equity: Rp 97-117 Miliar
• Per share (1.25B): Rp 77-94

🟡 Fair NAV: Rp 75-95 per lembar

Method 2: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF Recovery)

Base Case (50% prob):

• 2026 profit: Rp 15M (normalized)
• Terminal value: Rp 15M / 0,10 = Rp 150M
• Discount back 1 year: Rp 150M / 1,10 = Rp 136M
• Per share: Rp 109

Bull Case (30% prob):

• 2026 profit: Rp 25M (strong recovery)
• Terminal: Rp 25M / 0,08 = Rp 312M
• Discounted: Rp 283M
• Per share: Rp 226

Bear Case (20% prob):

• 2026 profit: Rp 5M (slow recovery)
• Per share: Rp 40

Probability-weighted: 50% × 109 + 30% × 226 + 20% × 40 = Rp 54.5 + Rp 67.8 + Rp 8 = Rp 130/share

Kesimpulan Valuasih3

Model	Fair Value
NAV	Rp 75-95
DCF Base	Rp 109
DCF Bull	Rp 226
DCF Prob-weighted	Rp 130
Range	Rp 75-226
Current Price	Rp 520
Assessment	🔴 OVERPRICED 2-7x (depends on scenario)

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIOh2

Skenario Positif / Bull (Probability 30%)h3

Pemicu:

• Real estate recovery strong (demand robust)
• Cibungbulang project sell well
• 2026 profit Rp 25M+
• Margin return 12-15%
• Valuation re-rate (recovery confirmation)

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 40-50 Miliar
• Laba: Rp 20-25 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 16-20
• Fair P/E: 15x (recovery multiple)
• Harga Target: Rp 240-300
• Return: -54 to -42% (downside dari Rp 520!)

⚠️ Even bull case stock down dari current price (overvalued now).

Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 50%)h3

pemicu:

• Gradual real estate recovery
• 2026 profit Rp 12-18M (partial normalization)
• Margin 8-10%
• Valuation stabilize

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 25-30 Miliar
• Laba: Rp 10-15 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 8-12
• Fair P/E: 10-12x
• Harga Target: Rp 80-140
• Return: -73 to -73% (major crash)

Skenario Pesimis / Bear (Probability 20%)h3

pemicu:

• Real estate demand stay weak
• 2026 still loss or minimal profit
• Debt covenant issues
• Forced restructuring

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 10-15 Miliar
• Laba: Loss
• Fair valuation: NAV only
• Harga Target: Rp 75-95
• Return: -82 to -82% (severe loss)

Nilai Harapan (Tertimbang)h3

Skenario	Peluang	Return	Tertimbang
Positif	30%	-48%	-14,4%
Base	50%	-73%	-36,5%
Pesimis	20%	-82%	-16,4%
HARAPAN	100%	-67%	-67,3%

🔴 EXPECTED RETURN: -67% dalam 2 tahun (probability weighted).

Harga Rp 520 sangat overvalued untuk fundamental sekarang.

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif:h3

1. ✓ Real estate demand improvement - order book Cibungbulang project
2. ✓ Profitability normalize - Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 earnings guidance
3. ✓ Valuation re-rate down - jika market realize overvaluation
4. ✓ New projects launched - expansion ke lokasi baru

Red Flags (CAUTION):h3

• 🔴 Revenue decline again (project sales weak)
• 🔴 Solvency concern (leverage spike)
• 🔴 Covenant breach / debt restructuring
• 🔴 Management shake-up

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 TUNGGU / HOLDh3

Untuk PEMEGANG SAHAM EXISTING:

• ⚠️ HOLD dengan target exit Rp 200-250 (take profit)
• Jangan menambah posisi
• Profit-taking setup jika ada spike
• Expected return forward -67% (very negative)

Untuk CALON PEMBELI:

• 🔴 TUNGGU untuk pullback ke Rp 250-300 (lebih reasonable entry)
• Atau skip sekarang, wait for concrete recovery evidence
• Current Rp 520 pricing too optimistic

Target Hargah3

Periode	Harga Target	Return	Peluang
6 Bulan	Rp 250-350	-33 to -52%	50%
12 Bulan	Rp 150-250	-52 to -71%	50%
Bull Case (2026+)	Rp 240-300	-42 to -54%	30%
Base Case (2026+)	Rp 80-140	-73%	50%
Bear Case (2026+)	Rp 75-95	-82%	20%

Siapa Cocok Membeli ATAP?h3

Tipe Investor	Rekomendasi	Alasan
Conservative	🔴 SKIP	Valuation risk too high
Value Investor	🔴 SKIP	Wait for Rp 100-150 entry
Growth Investor	⚠️ MAYBE	Growth potential ada tapi valuation premium
Turnaround Specialist	🟡 RISKY	Recovery narrative there but execution risky
Spekulant	⚠️ RISKY	-67% expected return, not attractive

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MONITORING CHECKLISTh2

Quarterly Earnings - KEY WATCH:

1. Revenue trend - acceleration atau deceleration?
2. Profit realization - sustainable atau one-off?
3. Project progress - Cibungbulang absorption rate?
4. Backlog/pipeline - future revenue visibility?

Red Flags:

• 🔴 Revenue decline again (loss return)
• 🔴 Margin compression < 5%
• 🔴 Working capital deterioration
• 🔴 Equity raise / dilution

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KESIMPULANh2

PT Trimitra Prawara Goldland Tbk adalah RECOVERY STORY dengan:

✓ Positive Factors:

• Balance sheet solid (DER 0,38x, Altman 8,92)
• Cash positive Rp 23M (no refinance risk)
• K3 2025 profit signal turning point
• Real estate market recovery cycle support
• Historical capability (2017-2019 strong)

🔴 Negative Factors:

• TTM still loss (Rp 3M)
• Valuasi very overpriced (P/B 8,43x)
• Execution risk high (recovery not assured)
• Expected return -67% forward (probability weighted)
• Market pricing extreme optimism

🟡 Verdict:

ATAP adalah speculative recovery play trading at extreme valuation. Bull case possible (30% probability) tapi bear/base case (70%) suggest significant downside. For value investor, wait for pullback Rp 200-300 before entry.

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Analisis dibuat 23 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & 9M 2025 data, ditambah historical analysis 2017-2024 dan industri real estate context 2025.