RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Isra Presisi Indonesia Tbk (ISAP) adalah perusahaan manufaktur presisi berukuran kecil (micro-cap) yang mengkhususkan diri dalam pembuatan dies, mold, checking fixture, precision parts, dan stamping parts untuk industri otomotif dan non-otomotif. Perusahaan didirikan tahun 2011 sebagai hasil inisiatif Yayasan Dharma Bhakti Astra dan tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia sejak Desember 2022 dengan harga IPO Rp96 per saham.

Kesimpulan Utama:

ISAP adalah saham mikro-cap dengan profil risiko tinggi dan volatilitas ekstrem. Dalam 12 bulan terakhir, saham mengalami rally spektakuler 289% (dari ~Rp10.8 di Januari 2025 menjadi Rp42 saat ini), namun di tengah fundamental yang sangat lemah: revenue jatuh 53,5% dari Rp76,9 Miliar (2023) menjadi Rp35,7 Miliar (2024), earning per share turun 27,7%, dan profitabilitas bersih hanya Rp1,4 Miliar.

Disconnect antara harga dan fundamental sangat besar. Perusahaan currently trading pada P/E 28.2x (sangat mahal untuk saham dengan profitabilitas menurun), padahal book value per share hanya Rp41.92—hampir sama dengan harga saat ini. Momentum teknikal sudah overbought (RSI 78.29), dan institutional holders sedang mengurangi posisi (Bandar Movement negative).

Rating ISAP adalah HOLD/CAUTION dengan strong emphasis pada RISK MANAGEMENT. Saham ini hanya cocok untuk spekulan dengan high risk tolerance dan experience dengan micro-cap volatility. Conservative investors harus HINDARI sepenuhnya.

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I. ANALISIS FUNDAMENTALh2

A. PROFIL BISNIS & POSISI INDUSTRIh3

Latar Belakang Perusahaan:

PT Isra Presisi Indonesia Tbk adalah hasil inisiatif pengembangan UKM (Usaha Kecil Menengah) dalam sektor manufaktur presisi melalui program mentoring Yayasan Dharma Bhakti Astra (divisi CSR Astra International). Perusahaan didirikan pada tahun 2011 dan beroperasi sebagai supplier strategis bagi Astra Group dan ekosistem otomotif Indonesia.

Kantor pusat dan fasilitas manufaktur berlokasi di Kawasan Industri Delta Silicon III, Lippo Cikarang, Bekasi—lokasi strategis dekat cluster manufaktur otomotif Indonesia.

Segmen Bisnis Utama:

1. Dies & Mold Manufacturing (60–70% revenue estimate)

   • Custom dies untuk stamping
   • Injection molds untuk plastik
   • Pressing tools
   • Target: OEM otomotif, supplier tier-1, manufaktur umum

2. Precision Parts Manufacturing (15–20% revenue)

   • Machining parts dengan toleransi tinggi
   • CNC-produced components
   • Assembly-ready components
   • Target: Automotive components, machinery, electronics

3. Checking Fixtures & Gauges (10–15% revenue)

   • Quality control fixtures
   • Measurement gauges
   • Assembly fixtures
   • Target: Quality assurance services untuk OEM

4. Stamping & Secondary Services (5–10% revenue)

   • Metal stamping
   • Surface treatment
   • Assembly support services
   • Target: Job-shop services untuk various industries

Competitive Position:

Posisi ISAP dalam industri dies & molds Indonesia adalah mid-tier supplier dengan keunggulan:

• Lokasi strategis di cluster otomotif Bekasi
• Access ke Astra Group ecosystem (major customer base)
• Technology sufficient (CNC machinery, CAD/CAM software, inspection equipment)
• Skilled workforce (engineering, machining capabilities)
• Niche positioning dalam custom precision work (tidak competing on scale vs. large Chinese suppliers)

Kelemahan Kompetitif:

• Ukuran kecil = limited capacity, no economy of scale
• Limited capital untuk modernisasi equipment
• Dependency pada Astra Group (concentration risk)
• Manual processes for some operations
• Limited project portfolio visibility

B. KINERJA FINANSIAL (2024 vs. HISTORICAL)h3

Revenue Trend & Analysis:

Tahun	Revenue (Rp Miliar)	YoY Change
2021	16.41	-
2022	20.93	+27.56%
2023	76.85	+267.11%
2024	35.72	-53.51%

Dramatic volatility dalam revenue pattern:

• 2021-2022: Modest growth 27.56% (normal)
• 2022-2023: Explosive growth 267% (unusual—suggests large project or major customer win)
• 2023-2024: Severe contraction 53.51% (suggests project completion or customer loss)

Interpretation: 2023 likely benefited dari large one-time project (e.g., tooling order dari OEM baru atau major production die set), dan 2024 revert ke lower baseline revenue. Current revenue Rp35.72B likely closer to normalized run-rate untuk company structure.

Profitability Analysis:

Metrik	2023	2024	Change
Revenue	76.85	35.72	-53.51%
Cost of Revenue	69.85	29.98	-57.08%
Gross Profit	6.99	5.74	-17.88%
Gross Margin	9.09%	16.07%	+598 bps
Operating Profit	3.10	2.50	-19.35%
Operating Margin	4.04%	7.00%	+296 bps
Net Income	1.97	1.42	-27.74%
Net Margin	2.56%	3.97%	+141 bps

Key Observation: Meskipun revenue collapsed 53.5%, gross margin actually IMPROVED dari 9.09% menjadi 16.07%—ini sangat positif! Menunjukkan perusahaan cut costs aggressively dan maintained pricing power pada remaining orders.

Interpretation:

• Company managed cost structure responsibly during revenue downturn
• Pricing power suggests differentiated product (custom dies/molds)—not commodity
• Operating leverage negative (fixed costs still high relative to lower revenue)
• Profitability thin (3.97% net margin) leaves little room for error

Earnings Per Share (EPS):

Tahun	EPS (Rp)	YoY Change
2022	0.36	-
2023	0.49	+35.14%
2024	0.35	-27.74%

EPS peaked in 2023 at Rp0.49, then declined to Rp0.35 in 2024—below 2022 level! Current P/E of 28.2x (based on current price Rp42 / EPS Rp0.35) is extremely high for:

• Declining earnings
• Small company with limited market
• Thin profit margins
• Revenue instability

C. BALANCE SHEET & LIQUIDITYh3

Balance Sheet Snapshot (2024):

Item	2024 (Rp Miliar)	% of Assets
ASSETS
Current Assets	160.19	90.1%
Non-Current Assets	17.57	9.9%
TOTAL ASSETS	177.76	100%
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities	6.07	3.4%
Non-Current Liabilities	0	0%
TOTAL LIABILITIES	6.07	3.4%
EQUITY
Total Equity	171.69	96.6%

Liquidity & Solvency Assessment:

Rasio	2024	Status
Current Ratio	25.45	Extraordinarily High
Quick Ratio	0.55	(if adjusting inventory)
Debt-to-Equity	0.03	Virtually Debt-Free
Debt-to-Assets	0.03	Excellent
Working Capital	154.12 Miliar	Very Strong

Kesimpulan Likuiditas:

Posisi likuiditas ISAP adalah world-class untuk small company. Current ratio 25.45 berarti perusahaan dapat cover short-term liabilities 25x over! Praktis debt-free.

Namun, ini mengindikasikan:

• Cash hoarding / inefficient capital deployment
• Under-utilization of financial leverage
• Conservative management (possibly due to small size)
• Limited growth investment (low capex)

Book Value Assessment:

Total Equity: Rp171.69 Miliar Shares Outstanding: 4.02 Miliar Book Value Per Share: Rp42.73

Current Price: Rp42 Price-to-Book Ratio: 0.98x (trading almost exactly at book value!)

Ini adalah very cheap valuation pada aset basis, tetapi extremely expensive pada earnings basis (P/E 28.2x).

D. CASH FLOW ANALYSISh3

Operating Cash Flow Trend:

Tahun	OCF (Rp Juta)	Status
2021	2,080	Positive
2022	-133,610	Major negative (IPO spending?)
2023	-11,700	Still negative
2024	1,850	Returned to positive

Positive OCF in 2024 (Rp1.85 Miliar) adalah good sign—company generating cash from operations despite revenue decline. Suggests efficient working capital management.

Overall Cash Position:

Component	2024
Operating CF	+1.85M
Investing CF	-777.5M
Financing CF	-1.44M
Net Cash Change	-364.5M
Cash End Period	1.63M

Company invested Rp777.5M in capex (equipment), which is healthy. Overall cash depletion modest. Cash runway is short (only Rp1.63M actual cash), but generated positive OCF.

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II. ANALISIS TEKNIKALh2

A. TREN HARGA JANGKA PANJANG (April 2024 – January 2026)h3

Berdasarkan grafik yang disajikan, ISAP menunjukkan volatilitas ekstrem dengan strong uptrend yang sedang mengalami corrective pullback:

Fase Capitulation (April – May 2024):

• Price mencapai all-time low Rp6 pada April 3, 2024
• Volume tidak tinggi (confirmation bahwa bukan smart money selling)
• Base terbentuk sangat dalam—indikasi excessive selling

Fase Bottoming & Recovery (June – September 2024):

• Breakout dari Rp6 base dengan gradual volume increase
• Menaiki resistance pertama Rp20–30 zone
• Momentum building slowly (V-shaped recovery pattern)

Fase Explosive Rally (October 2024 – December 2025):

• Parabolic move dari Rp30 menuju Rp69 high (late Dec 2025)
• Volume spike massive, VWAP moving average di Rp42 level
• RSI reached 100 (maximum overbought)
• Accumulation Distribution Indicator (Accum/Dist) at Rp3.32B (high)
• Rally 600%+ dari Rp6 bottom—extreme momentum move

Fase Pullback/Consolidation (January 2026):

• Price retreated dari Rp69 high ke current Rp42 (-39%)
• Still above VWAP (Rp42 = VWAP, per chart)
• RSI normalized dari 100 to 78.29 (still overbought but cooling)
• Volume declining (less participation)
• Bandar Movement turning negative (institutional selling signal)

B. MOMENTUM INDICATORS & TECHNICAL SIGNALSh3

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 78.29

• Status: Overbought (RSI >70)
• Interpretation: Market has rallied extensively; pullback likely soon
• However: Can stay overbought in strong secular uptrends for extended periods
• Warning: Reversal risk high if any negative catalyst

Stochastic RSI: 100 (Historical) / 93.80 (Orange)

• Confirms extreme overbought condition
• Suggests momentum exhaustion

VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Rp42

• Price currently = VWAP
• Interpretation: Price at fair volume-adjusted average—neutral
• Next support: Rp35 (previous consolidation level)
• Resistance: Rp50, then Rp69 (recent high)

Bandar Movement: -Rp7.18M

• Negative = Smart money (institutional) selling
• This is concerning—big players taking profits or turning negative

Net Foreign Buy/Sell: +Rp1.17M

• Positive = Foreign investors buying
• Conflict signal: Locals selling, foreigners buying
• Suggests foreign interest in micro-cap turnaround play

Volume Analysis:

• Current Volume: 26.89M shares
• Volume MA (Average): 85.61M
• Current volume below average = less participation = weaker move
• This is concerning for uptrend sustainability

C. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELSh3

Resistance (Upside Targets):

1. Rp50 – Psychological round number, prior consolidation
2. Rp60 – Swing high from Dec 2024
3. Rp69 – All-time recent high (late Dec 2025)
4. Rp75+ – New territory (if breaks Rp69)

Support (Downside Protection):

1. Rp40–42 – VWAP & current price zone, psychological support
2. Rp35–38 – Prior consolidation band
3. Rp30 – Breakout level from mid-2024
4. Rp20–25 – Major support from June-Sept 2024 trading
5. Rp6–10 – The capitulation low (Apr 2024), major psychological support

Technical Verdict: Uptrend intact but showing signs of exhaustion. Pullback to Rp35–38 likely; further breakdown to Rp25–30 possible if negative catalyst emerges.

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III. ANALISIS SENTIMEN & KATALISAh2

A. SENTIMEN POSITIFh3

1. Ultra-Cheap Valuation on Asset Basis

• Trading at P/B 0.98x (almost at book value)
• Asset backing strong: Rp171.7B equity for Rp169B market cap
• If company liquidated, shareholders recover nearly 100% of capital
• Provides strong downside protection / floor price

2. Improved Cost Management (2024)

• Gross margin improved to 16.07% despite 53.5% revenue decline
• Operating margin at 7% shows cost discipline
• Company can maintain profitability even at lower revenue levels
• Suggests lean operations, not bloated

3. Positive Operating Cash Flow Turnaround

• 2024 OCF positive Rp1.85B (after negative in 2022-2023)
• Shows underlying business generating cash
• Better than high-growth companies with negative cash burn

4. Micro-Cap Volatility = Opportunity

• 289% rally in 1 year = high liquidity event possible
• Small floats = potential for squeeze/momentum plays
• Private equity / acquisition potential (roll-up plays)

5. Astra Group Backing

• Yayasan Dharma Bhakti Astra affiliation provides credibility
• Astra is major customer = order visibility
• Strategic importance to Astra (local sourcing initiative)

6. Niche Market Position

• Dies & molds are high-barrier-to-entry (tooling expertise)
• Not competing on price vs. China (differentiation)
• Custom work = sticky customer relationships

B. SENTIMEN NEGATIF / RISIKO MATERIALh3

1. Revenue Collapse is Unexplained & Concerning

• 53.51% YoY revenue decline (2024 vs 2023) is NOT normal
• No official explanation for drop
• Could indicate:
  • Major customer loss
  • Project completion (one-off 2023)
  • Market share loss to competitors
  • Automotive industry downturn impact
• This is the single biggest risk

2. Profitability Very Thin & Declining

• EPS down 27.74% YoY
• Net margin only 3.97% = no safety margin for any disruption
• Operating profit only Rp2.5B / year = minimal

3. Extreme Valuation Disconnect

• P/E 28.2x is absurdly high for small manufacturer with declining earnings
• Market pricing in unrealistic growth that fundamentals don’t support
• Valuation trap potential

4. Micro-Cap Illiquidity Risks

• Market cap only Rp169B (one of smallest on IDX)
• Trading volume volatile
• Bid-ask spreads can be wide
• Exit difficult in market stress

5. Overbought Technical Condition

• RSI 78.29 = exhausted momentum
• Rally 600%+ from bottom = reversion to mean likely
• Negative Bandar Movement = smart money exiting
• Pullback to Rp30–35 very possible

6. One-Time Revenue Spike Unproven as Sustainable

• 2023 revenue of Rp76.9B might have been project-based
• 2024 normalized to Rp35.7B might be the “true” run rate
• If 2024 is the baseline, company is NOT worth Rp42/share at P/E 28.2x

7. No Dividend History & Tight Cash

• No dividen paid despite retained earnings
• Cash only Rp1.63B = cannot support expansion without borrowing
• Growing from internal cash generation difficult

8. Automotive Industry Cyclicality

• Heavy dependency on automotive OEM orders
• 2024 was weak year for auto industry globally
• Further industry slowdown would impact materially

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IV. VALUASI & ANALISIS SKENARIOh2

A. VALUATION FRAMEWORKSh3

1. Price-to-Book Approach (Asset-Based):

Book Value per Share: Rp42.73 Current Price: Rp42.00 P/B Ratio: 0.98x (at book value)

Typical P/B ranges:

• Mature, profitable companies: 1.0–2.0x
• Growth companies: 2.0–5.0x
• Distressed/turnaround: 0.5–1.0x

ISAP at 0.98x suggests:

• Fair value by asset standards
• Or market is discounting earnings quality

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2. Earnings-Based Approach (P/E):

Current EPS (TTM): Rp0.35 Current Price: Rp42.00 Current P/E: 28.2x

Peer/sector benchmarks:

• Automotive/industrial machinery: 8–12x P/E
• Small-cap growth: 15–20x P/E
• Micro-cap speculative: 20–40x P/E

ISAP at 28.2x is:

• Expensive for declining earnings
• Reasonable for micro-cap speculation
• But requires earnings growth to justify

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3. Normalized Earnings Approach:

Assuming Rp35.7B revenue is sustainable and normalizing to 5% net margin (vs current 3.97%):

• Normalized Net Income: Rp1.79B (up from Rp1.42B current)
• Normalized EPS: Rp0.45 (vs current Rp0.35)
• Fair P/E (12x): Rp42 per share

Conclusion: Current price is FAIR on normalized earnings at 12x multiple.

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B. SCENARIO ANALYSISh3

BULL CASE (Probability: 25%)

Assumptions:

• Revenue recovers to Rp60–70B (2023 level) in next 2 years
• New large projects / customers secured
• Gross margin maintains at 15%+
• Operating leverage improves (fixed costs spread over higher revenue)
• Net margin improves to 5–6%

Projected 2026-2027:

• Revenue: Rp60B
• Net Income: Rp3.0–3.6B
• EPS: Rp0.75–0.90

Valuation (at 15x P/E multiple):

• Fair Price: Rp0.82 × 15 = Rp12.3 ÷ Rp169B market cap
• Target: Rp65–75/share (+55% to +79% upside)

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BASE CASE (Probability: 50%)

Assumptions:

• Revenue stabilizes at Rp35–40B (current normalized level)
• Gross margin at 14–16%
• Net margin at 3.5–4%
• Modest growth 5–10% annually
• No major customer wins or losses

Projected 2026-2027:

• Revenue: Rp38–40B
• Net Income: Rp1.5–1.6B
• EPS: Rp0.37–0.40

Valuation (at 12x P/E):

• Fair Price: Rp0.38 × 12 = Rp4.56 ÷ Rp169B (per share calculation)
• Target: Rp42–45/share (0% to +7% return)

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BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%)

Assumptions:

• Revenue further declines to Rp25–30B (2025-2026)
• Margin compression due to operating leverage
• Major customer loss or project cancellation
• Automotive industry slowdown continues
• Pricing pressure from competitors

Projected 2026-2027:

• Revenue: Rp28B
• Net Income: Rp0.8–1.0B
• EPS: Rp0.20–0.25

Valuation (at 10x P/E—distressed multiple):

• Fair Price: Rp0.22 × 10 = Rp2.2 ÷ Rp169B
• Target: Rp25–30/share (-25% to -40% downside)

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Weighted Fair Value = (25% × 70) + (50% × 43) + (25% × 27.5) = Rp43.375

Current price Rp42 ≈ Base Case Fair Value

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V. REKOMENDASI & RATINGh2

RATING: HOLD / CAUTION

Target Price 12 Bulan: Rp40–50 Current Price: Rp42 Implied Return: 0% to +19% (limited upside, asymmetric downside risk) Risk/Reward: Unfavorable (downside risk > upside potential)

Rationale:h3

1. Valuation Fair But Not Compelling

   • At P/B 0.98x = fair asset value
   • At P/E 28.2x = expensive for earning quality
   • Blend = neutral, not attractive

2. Fundamental Deterioration Concerning

   • Revenue down 53.5% YoY
   • EPS down 27.74% YoY
   • Explanation lacking
   • Market pricing in optimism without evidence

3. Technical Overbought, Risk of Reversal

   • RSI 78.29, Stochastic extreme
   • Rally 600%+ unsustainable
   • Bandar Movement negative
   • Volume declining = less support

4. Micro-Cap Risks Substantial

   • Illiquidity
   • Volatility
   • Information asymmetry
   • Exit difficulty

5. Limited Upside / Material Downside

   • Base case = 0-7% return
   • Bull case = 55-79% but low probability (25%)
   • Bear case = -25% to -40% and higher probability (25%)

Positioning Strategy:h3

FOR CURRENT HOLDERS:

• ✅ HOLD at current levels, but tight stop loss at Rp35
• ✅ Take partial profits at Rp50–55 if reached
• ✅ Monitor quarterly results closely (revenue trend critical)
• 🚨 EXIT immediately if revenue guidance declines further

FOR POTENTIAL BUYERS:

• ⏸️ WAIT for pullback to Rp35–38 range (more attractive risk/reward)
• ✅ Only suitable for HIGH-RISK tolerance investors
• ✅ Maximum position size 1–2% of portfolio (micro-cap concentration risk)
• ⏸️ Better opportunities exist elsewhere

FOR TRADERS (1–3 month horizon):

• Short at Rp45–50, target Rp30–35
• Stop loss: Rp55 (confirms breakout above resistance)
• Risk/reward: 1<1>.5 minimum

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VI. CRITICAL MONITORING POINTSh2

RED FLAGS (SELL SIGNALS):

• Revenue guidance further declines (negative outlook)
• Major customer loss announcement
• Earnings miss vs. expectations
• Dividend cut or suspension (cash crisis signal)
• Departure of key management
• Debt restructuring or covenant breach
• Technical breakdown below Rp30 support
• Negative operating cash flow return

GREEN FLAGS (BUY SIGNALS):

• Revenue growth returns to double-digit YoY
• Large project / contract win announced
• Margin improvement vs. current
• Strategic acquisition by larger manufacturer
• Dividend initiation (capital return)
• Analyst upgrade with positive EPS revision

QUARTERLY METRICS TO TRACK:

1. Revenue trend (critical—must show stabilization or growth)
2. Gross margin (watch for compression below 14%)
3. Net margin (watch for contraction below 3%)
4. Operating cash flow (must remain positive)
5. Customer concentration (Astra dependency level)
6. Order book (forward revenue visibility)
7. Inventory levels (working capital indicator)

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VII. KESIMPULAN & INVESTMENT THESISh2

PT Isra Presisi Indonesia Tbk (ISAP) adalah speculative micro-cap dengan asymmetric downside risk.

Positive Aspects:

• Debt-free, strong balance sheet (P/B 0.98x = asset protection)
• Niche business model (custom dies/molds)
• Astra Group backing & relationships
• Positive OCF turnaround
• Cost discipline demonstrated

Negative Aspects:

• Revenue collapsed 53.5% YoY (unexplained)
• Earnings declining (-27.74% EPS)
• Valuation stretched (P/E 28.2x)
• Profitability thin (3.97% margin)
• Technical overbought (RSI 78.29)
• Micro-cap illiquidity / volatility risks
• Smart money selling (Bandar Movement negative)

Investment Conclusion:

ISAP is NOT a buy at current Rp42 price. Current valuation already prices in modest recovery scenarios. Downside risk (25-40% to Rp25-30) > upside potential (0-19% to Rp42-50).

Only suitable for:

• Speculation on micro-cap turnaround
• Traders playing technical bounces
• Risk-seeking investors with high tolerance for volatility

Better suited for waiting at:

• Rp35–38 (pullback zone = better risk/reward)
• Rp25–30 (bear case scenario = significant margin of safety)

Investors should prioritize understanding revenue decline before making any decision. Until company explains the 53.5% revenue collapse and shows stabilization/growth, fundamental story remains questionable.

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Disclaimer: Analisis ini berdasarkan data publik per Januari 19, 2026 dan merupakan educational material saja, BUKAN financial advice. Micro-cap stocks adalah high-risk, speculative assets. Investor harus memiliki high risk tolerance dan experience dengan small-cap volatility. Semua keputusan investasi adalah tanggung jawab investor. Konsultasikan dengan licensed financial advisor sebelum investasi.