Tanggal Analisis: 24 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 90 per lembar
Ticker: WOWS (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Ginting Jaya Energi Tbk
Sektor: Energi - Jasa Migas (Work Over & Well Service Contractor)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 220 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 2,48 Miliar lembar

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE HOLDh2

Rating: 🟡 TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE HOLD (Perusahaan Jasa Migas Kecil dengan Recovery Trend Positif, Tapi Risiko Operasional Tinggi, Leverage Rendah-Baik, Profitabilitas Marginal, Dividen None)

WOWS adalah perusahaan jasa migas skala kecil yang menyediakan layanan work over (WO) dan well service (WS) untuk industri minyak dan gas. Perusahaan memiliki armada 9 unit rig dan menargetkan penambahan 2-3 rig baru. Fundamental menunjukkan recovery trend positif: revenue 9M 2025 Rp 166,93 Miliar (+120,7% YoY), laba bersih Rp 8 Miliar TTM (dari loss tahun-tahun sebelumnya). Namun margin bersih sangat rendah 3,6%, leverage masih moderate, dan visibility kontrak hanya sampai 2026. Harga Rp 90 adalah harga spekulatif untuk recovery story yang belum terbukti sustainable.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9 Bulan 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan (TTM)	Rp 221 Miliar	KECIL, tapi recovery trend positif
Laba Kotor (TTM)	Rp 56 Miliar	Margin 25%, tidak buruk untuk jasa
EBITDA (TTM)	Rp 35 Miliar	Margin 16%, moderate
Laba Bersih (TTM)	Rp 8 Miliar	PROFITABLE tapi MARGIN TIPIS 🟡
Margin Bersih TTM	3,6%	SANGAT RENDAH untuk pertumbuhan
ROE TTM	1,55%	SANGAT RENDAH - return minimal
Arus Operasi TTM	Rp (5) MILIAR	🔴 NEGATIVE OCF - CASH BURN
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp (22) MILIAR	🔴 NEGATIVE FCF

Profil Paradoks:

1. ✓ Revenue growth positif - +120,7% YoY (dari Rp 101,6M jadi Rp 221M pencapaian)
2. 🟡 Tapi margin sangat rendah - 3,6% bersih (pertumbuhan omzet, bukan profit)
3. 🔴 OCF & FCF negatif - burn cash meskipun accounting profit
4. 🟡 Kontrak Rp 300M dari PHR 2025 - visibility OK, tapi tidak long-term
5. ✓ Balance sheet decent - leverage D/E 0,13x (low), Altman 7,49 (safe)
6. ✓ Operasional recovery - K3 2025 profit Rp 2-3M (turnaround dari loss)
7. 🔴 ROE 1,55% < < cost of equity ~12% - severe capital inefficiency
8. 🔴 No dividen - investor tidak dapat return

Kesimpulan Awal: WOWS adalah high-risk recovery speculation - company yang sedang turnaround dengan revenue growing tapi profitability marginal dan cash flow negative. Cocok untuk risk-taker yang spekulasi recovery 2-3 tahun, bukan untuk conservative investor. Harga Rp 90 sudah reflect harapan positif, minimal margin of safety.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 24 Desember 2025)h3

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA:

Dari lampiran screenshot WOWS, saya konversi dari format US ke format Indonesia:

• “221 B” = Rp 221 Miliar (bukan 221 Triliun)
• “2 B”, “1 B” kuartalan = Rp dalam Miliar
• “56 B” gross profit = Rp 56 Miliar
• “490 M” = Rp 490 Juta (note M bukan B)
• Semua angka sudah diverifikasi konversinya

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	221 Miliar	167 Miliar	65 Miliar	32,3 Miliar
Laba Kotor	56 Miliar	38,3 Miliar	13,7 Miliar	8,8 Miliar
EBITDA	35 Miliar	22,3 Miliar	6,2 Miliar	2,2 Miliar
Laba Bersih	8 Miliar	4,5 Miliar	2 Miliar	(1,2) Miliar

⚠️ Data note: Q4 2024 estimated dari TTM minus 9M numbers (TTM = 221M, 9M = 167M, so Q4 est = 54M).

✓ Recovery trend jelas: K3 2024 loss Rp 1,2M → K3 2025 profit Rp 2M (dramatic turnaround).

✓ TTM profit Rp 8M - profitable tapi margin sangat rendah.

⚠️ Revenue jump dramatic - Rp 101,6M (9M 2024 est) → Rp 167M (9M 2025) = +64% dalam 9 bulan.

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	Per Saham (Rp)
K1 2025	2	1,5%	0,80
K2 2025	1	0,4%	0,40
K3 2025	2	2,7%	0,80
Total 9M	5	3,0%	2,0

⚠️ Margin sangat rendah: K1 1,5%, K2 hanya 0,4%, K3 2,7% = rata-rata 3% sangat thin.

✓ Tapi konsisten profitable (bukan loss).

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 3,30
EPS (Annual)	Rp 2,54
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 89,20
Kas Per Saham (Quarter)	Rp 1,18
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 213,29
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp (8,70) 🔴

🔴 EPS TTM Rp 3,30 → Harga Rp 90 / EPS 3,30 = P/E 27,3x (quite high untuk margin thin).

🔴 FCF per saham -Rp 8,70 - negative cash generation is concern.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas (Quarter)	3 Miliar
Total Aset	639 Miliar
Total Liabilitas (Quarter)	111 Miliar
Total Ekuitas (Quarter)	528 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang (Quarter)	19 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek (Quarter)	52 Miliar
Total Utang (Quarter)	71 Miliar
Utang Bersih (Quarter)	68 Miliar (utang bersih)
Modal Kerja (Quarter)	229 Miliar

✓ Modal kerja positif Rp 229M - healthy working capital position.

✓ Net debt Rp 68M - low leverage (utang Rp 71M vs kas Rp 3M net).

Arus Kas (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	(5) 🔴
Arus dari Investasi	27
Arus Kas Bebas	(22) 🔴
Arus dari Pendanaan	(20)

🔴 OCF NEGATIF Rp 5M - operasi burn cash!

Ini adalah MAJOR CONCERN - profitable di accounting basis tapi negative di cash basis.

Possible reasons:

• Working capital increase (inventory/receivables buildup)
• Capex investment (rig purchase/maintenance)
• Debt repayment
• Timing mismatch (receivables not collected)

🔴 FCF negatif Rp 22M - significant cash drain.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 90):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	27,27x	🔴 HIGH untuk margin tipis
P/E (Annual)	35,43x	🔴 VERY HIGH
Harga/Nilai Buku	0,42x	✓ Discount
Harga/Penjualan	0,99x	✓ Fair untuk omzet
EV/EBITDA	6,23x	🟡 Moderate
EV/EBIT	14,32x	🟡 High untuk EBIT margin thin

🟡 Valuasi mixed: P/E 27x tinggi untuk margin 3,6%, tapi P/B 0,42x bargain, EV/EBITDA 6,2x acceptable.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	21,50%
Margin Operasi	7,90%
Margin Laba Bersih	2,72%

⚠️ Operating margin 7,9% reasonable, tapi net margin 2,72% sangat rendah (interest, tax bite hard).

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 YoY):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+120,71% ✓
Laba Kotor	-9,54% 🔴
Laba Bersih	+2.211,04% ✓

⚠️ Anomali: Revenue +121% tapi Laba Kotor -9,54%? (dari Rp 15,2M jadi Rp 13,7M turun).

Likely reasons:

• Mix shift (lower margin jobs)
• Cost inflation (labor, fuel)
• One-off items

✓ Laba bersih +2.211% - dari loss Rp 1,2M jadi profit Rp 2M = massive swing (but dari basis kecil).

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	3,94x	✓ EXCELLENT (>2,0 good)
Rasio Cepat	2,73x	✓ VERY GOOD
Utang/Ekuitas	0,13x	✓ VERY LOW
Total Liabilitas/Aset	0,17x	✓ LOW (83% asset unencumbered)
Interest Coverage	2,43x	🟡 OK (dapat bayar bunga 2.4x)
Skor Altman	7,49	✓ VERY SAFE (>2,6 = safe)
Free Cash Flow (Quarter)	Rp 12M	🟡 Positive pero TTM negative

✓ Skor Altman 7,49 = FINANCIALLY VERY STABLE - no bankruptcy risk.

✓ Leverage sangat rendah - D/E 0,13x adalah excellent.

✓ Rasio lancar 3,94x - outstanding liquidity.

🔴 BUT: OCF & FCF negative - meskipun balance sheet solid.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	1,28%
ROE (TTM)	1,55%
Return Modal Bekerja (TTM)	3,51%
Return Modal Tertanam (TTM)	3,37%

🔴 Returns SANGAT RENDAH - ROE 1,55% jauh di bawah cost of equity 12%.

Artinya capital value eroding meskipun profitable.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Recovery Strategyh3

Lini Bisnis WOWS:

1. Work Over (WO) Services

   • Pemeliharaan sumur minyak & gas yang sudah beroperasi
   • Rigging, well servicing, completion
   • Klien utama: Pertamina EP, PHR (Pertamina Hulu Rokan)

2. Well Service (WS) Operations

   • Drilling support
   • Equipment rental (rig)
   • Personnel supply

3. Armada & Assets

   • 9 unit rig operasional (2024)
   • Target ekspansi: +2-3 rig baru (2024-2025)
   • Equipment maintenance & upgrade

Recent Contracts & Pipeline:

• Sept 2025: Kontrak Rp 300M dari Pertamina Hulu Rokan (PHR) untuk 2025

  • 6 rig contract senilai ~Rp 300M
  • Visibility: Extends sampai 2026
  • Strategic: PHR adalah klien strategis

• Target 2026: Penambahan portofolio kontrak lebih besar, rencana ekspansi rig

Industry Context:

✓ Tailwind positif:

• Indonesian oil production target 1 juta barel/hari 2029-2030 (government policy)
• Regulatory support: Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 14 Tahun 2025 untuk pengelolaan sumur migas
• Demand untuk well service / work over akan meningkat seiring dengan optimalisasi sumur existing

🔴 Headwind:

• Oil price volatility (minyak < US$60 → operator reduce capex)
• Small player vs large contractors (competition)
• Technology risk (automated drilling reduce demand)
• Cyclical industry (migas sensitive to macro)

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industri Landscapeh3

Competitors dalam Jasa Migas Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Skala	Spesialisasi
Baker Hughes	Raksasa	Oilfield services, global
Halliburton	Raksasa	Oilfield services, global
Pertamina Drilling	Besar	In-house contractor Pertamina
ISKA (Inti Swadaya Karya)	Menengah	Drilling, workover services
WOWS (Ginting Jaya)	KECIL	Specialized WO & WS services
Various small contractors	Kecil	Regional services

Positioning WOWS:

✓ Strengths:

• Long-standing client relationship (Pertamina group)
• Flexible, cost-competitive (small player advantage)
• Growing contract pipeline
• Strong balance sheet (low leverage)
• Recovery story (turnaround from losses)

🔴 Weaknesses:

• Small scale (9 rig vs major competitors hundreds)
• Limited geographic reach (Sumatra focused)
• Thin margins (3,6% net)
• Negative cash flow (despite accounting profit)
• Commodity-exposed (oil price dependent)

🟡 Opportunities:

• Rig fleet expansion (add 2-3 unit)
• New contracts from government policy push
• Regional expansion (Kalimantan, Papua)
• Technology upgrade (modern rig commands premium)

🔴 Threats:

• Oil price collapse (operator capex cut)
• Large contractor consolidation
• Automation / remote drilling (reduce WO demand)
• Operational accident (rig hazard)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🟡 PROFITABLE TAPI MARGIN SANGAT RENDAH, SUSTAINABILITY QUESTIONED

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	21,50%	22,9%	25%	25%	↓ Declining
Margin Operasi	7,90%	2,8%	16%	Low	⚠️ Volatile
Margin Bersih	2,72%	2,7%	3,6%	Loss	↑ Improving dari loss

🟡 TTM margin bersih 3,6% - sangat rendah untuk pertumbuhan omzet.

✓ Profitable shift: dari loss tahun lalu → profitable TTM (positive trend).

🔴 Margin stability concern: Gross margin declining (25% → 21,5%), operating margin volatile.

Sustainable?

🔴 TIDAK jelas - margin terlalu tipis:

• Operating margin 7,9% decent, tapi financing cost & tax bite hard
• Revenue growth dari kontrak baru, tapi margin tidak mejora (cost structure)
• Need volume + margin expansion untuk sustainable >10% net profit

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: 🔴 CRITICAL - NEGATIVE OCF & FCF DESPITE ACCOUNTING PROFIT

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	(Rp 5) M 🔴
Capex (TTM)	Rp 27 M
FCF (TTM)	(Rp 22) M 🔴
Financing (TTM)	(Rp 20) M

🔴 OCF NEGATIVE Rp 5M - operasi burn cash!

Ini adalah RED FLAG - accounting profit tapi cash negative.

Artinya: Receivables tidak dikumpul, inventory buildup, atau capex sangat besar.

🔴 FCF negatif Rp 22M - company drain cash every year.

Dengan kas hanya Rp 3M, if trend continues, liquidity crisis dalam 6-12 bulan.

Sustainability:

🔴 NOT SUSTAINABLE - negative FCF perlu immediate action:

• Reduce capex, OR
• Collect receivables faster, OR
• Reduce inventory, OR
• Get more contracts to generate positive OCF

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: ✓ LOW LEVERAGE, VERY SAFE, BUT CASH BURN CONCERN

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	0,13x	✓ VERY LOW
Debt/EBITDA	2,03x	🟡 OK
Skor Altman	7,49	✓ VERY SAFE
Interest Coverage	2,43x	🟡 OK
Rasio Lancar	3,94x	✓ EXCELLENT
Net Debt	68 Miliar	Low

✓ D/E 0,13x = VERY LOW leverage - almost no debt.

✓ Skor Altman 7,49 - jauh di atas 2,6 threshold, no bankruptcy risk sekarang.

✓ Rasio lancar 3,94x - good liquidity buffer.

🔴 BUT: Negative FCF is concern - if cash burn continues, liquidity squeezed.

Conclusion: Solvabilitas aman sekarang, tapi cash burn perlu watch closely.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 VERY LOW RETURNS, CAPITAL VALUE ERODING

Metrik	Nilai	Status
ROE	1,55%	🔴 VERY LOW
ROA	1,28%	🔴 VERY LOW
ROIC	3,37%	🔴 VERY LOW

🔴 ROE 1,55% < < cost of equity 12% - severe capital destruction.

Investor capital tidak menghasilkan return yang adequate.

For improvement, need:

• Profit increase significantly (margin expansion)
• Asset base reduction
• ROIC improvement dari operational efficiency

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🔴 NO DIVIDEND, PURE LOSS CURRENTLY

Tahun	Dividen
2025	-
2024	-
2023+	-

🔴 NO DIVIDEN - company tidak pay shareholder.

Return investor = pure capital appreciation (if happen).

Given negative cash flow, dividen unlikely 2026.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🟡 Profitable tapi margin tipis	2/5
2. Arus Kas	🔴 Negative OCF & FCF	1/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	✓ Low leverage, very safe	4.5/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 ROE 1,55%, very low	1/5
5. Dividen	🔴 None	0/5
RATA-RATA	🟡 RISKY	1.7/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi recovery tapi problematic - balance sheet safe, tapi operasional cash burn dan profitabilitas marginal adalah serious concerns.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 90h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	27,27x	🔴 HIGH untuk margin tipis
P/E (Annual)	35,43x	🔴 VERY HIGH
P/B	0,42x	✓ DISKON 58%
P/S	0,99x	✓ Fair
EV/EBITDA	6,23x	🟡 Acceptable

🔴 P/E 27x EXPENSIVE untuk company dengan 3,6% net margin dan negative cash flow.

✓ P/B 0,42x CHEAP - harga separuh dari book value.

Fair Value Estimationh3

Approach 1: P/E Multiple

• EPS TTM: Rp 3,30
• Fair P/E untuk small contractor recovery: 10-15x (conservative)
• Fair value 12x: Rp 3,30 × 12 = Rp 39,60/saham

🔴 P/E approach suggests Rp 40 - jauh di bawah Rp 90 sekarang.

Approach 2: Net Asset Value (NAV)

• Equity book: Rp 528M
• Per share: Rp 528M / 2.48B = Rp 213

✓ NAV Rp 213 - harga Rp 90 adalah diskon 58% ke NAV (bargain!).

Approach 3: DCF - Conservative Scenario

Assume turnaround success:

• 2025 FCF: -Rp 22M (negative)
• 2026 FCF: Rp 15M (improvement dari new contracts)
• 2027 FCF: Rp 30M (scale)
• Terminal growth: 2%

Operating cash flow assume normalize, company reduce capex/increase receivables collection.

Terminal value: Rp 30M / (0,12-0,02) = Rp 300M PV of FCF 2026-2027: Rp 40M Enterprise value: Rp 340M Less net debt: Rp 68M Equity value: Rp 272M / 2.48B = Rp 110/saham

🟡 DCF optimistic case: Rp 110 (assume successful turnaround).

Approach 4: Liquidation Value

If company liquidate:

• Assets Rp 639M - Liabilities Rp 111M = Rp 528M equity
• Per share: Rp 213

Kesimpulan Fair Valueh3

Model	Fair Value
P/E Multiple	Rp 40
NAV	Rp 213
DCF Turnaround	Rp 110
Liquidation	Rp 213
Consensus Range	Rp 40-213
Current Price	Rp 90
Assessment	🟡 FAIR (if turnaround succeeds)

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIO (2-TAHUN FORWARD)h2

skenario Positif / Bull Case (Probability 25%)h3

Pemicu Optimistis:

• Kontrak Rp 300M extended beyond 2026
• New contracts dari government push untuk oil production
• Rig fleet expand to 12-15 unit successfully
• FCF turn positive (operational improvement)
• Margin improve to 5-7% net (cost structure improvement)
• P/E multiple re-rate ke 15x (dari 27x sekarang)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 400-500 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 60-75 Miliar (15-16% margin)
• Laba bersih: Rp 20-30 Miliar (5-6% margin)
• EPS: Rp 8-12
• Fair valuation: P/E 15x → Rp 120-180/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 150-180
• Return: +67% to +100% dalam 2 tahun

Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 45%)h3

Pemicu Realistis:

• Kontrak stable, tapi margin squeeze (cost inflation)
• Revenue grow gradual ke Rp 300M annually (dari Rp 221M)
• FCF stay negative or barely positive
• Margin stay 3-4% (not improving)
• P/E stay 20-25x (no multiple re-rate)
• Dividend never resume

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 280-320 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Rp 10-15 Miliar (3-4% margin)
• EPS: Rp 4-6
• Fair valuation: P/E 15x → Rp 60-90/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 70-100
• Return: -22% to +11% dalam 2 tahun

skenario Pesimis / Bear Case (Probability 30%)h3

pemicu Pesimistik:

• Oil price crash < US$50/barrel (capex cut)
• PHR contract not renewed after 2026
• New contracts fail to materialize
• FCF negative persists (cash burn)
• Loss return (margin turn negative)
• Liquidity crisis (need dilute or debt)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 150-200 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Loss Rp 5-10 Miliar
• Fair valuation: Liquidation value Rp 100-150/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 50-100
• Return: -44% to -11%

Expected Value (Probability-Weighted Return)h3

skenario	Probability	Return	Weighted
Bull Case	25%	+83%	+20,75%
Base Case	45%	-5%	-2,25%
Bear Case	30%	-28%	-8,4%
TOTAL EXPECTED RETURN	100%	+50%	+9,9%

🟡 Expected return 2-tahun: +9,9% (probability weighted)

Moderate upside dengan significant downside risk. Asymmetry not strongly favorable.

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif (WATCH)h3

1. ✓ Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 earnings - FCF improvement? Margin better?
2. ✓ Rig expansion completion - 2-3 unit baru delivered on time & profitable?
3. ✓ New contracts announcement - portfolio expansion beyond PHR?
4. ✓ Oil price rebound - >US$70/barrel support operator capex
5. ✓ FCF turn positive - receivables collection improved?

Red Flags (EXIT Signals)h3

• 🔴 PHR contract not renewed (major client loss)
• 🔴 Loss return (margin turn negative)
• 🔴 Liquidity crisis (forced equity dilution)
• 🔴 Oil price < US$50/barrel sustained (demand collapse)
• 🔴 Operational accident (rig loss, safety issue)

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE HOLDh3

Untuk CALON INVESTOR BARU:

• 🟡 TUNGGU untuk Rp 60-75 - current Rp 90 tidak offer good entry
• OR SKIP completely - risk/reward not attractive untuk conservative
• Cocok untuk risk-taker spekulasi recovery 2-3 tahun
• But better opportunities available di market sekarang

Untuk INVESTOR EXISTING (sudah pemegang WOWS):

• 🟡 HOLD dengan caution - monitor FCF & margin closely
• Set stop-loss Rp 60 (if FCF not improve in Q1 2026)
• OR take profit di Rp 120+ (if bull case plays out)
• Not recommended untuk add position di Rp 90

Alternative Entry Pointsh3

Harga	Action	Reason
Rp 60-70	Speculative Buy	Discount ke NAV, risk/reward better
Rp 70-90	Hold/Wait	Already priced in some recovery
Rp 90	Not Recommended	Downside risk > upside potential
>Rp 110	Sell/Avoid	Overpriced untuk fundamental

Target Harga (2-Tahun Forward)h3

Periode	Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic
6 Bulan	Rp 50	Rp 85	Rp 120
12 Bulan	Rp 60	Rp 95	Rp 150
24 Bulan	Rp 50	Rp 85	Rp 180

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MONITORING CHECKLIST (QUARTERLY)h2

Critical Metrics:

1. Free Cash Flow - turn positive or continue negative?
2. Margin trend - improving atau declining?
3. Contract pipeline - new orders or renewal?
4. Receivables - collection improving?
5. Oil price - support for operator capex?

Annual Key Points:

1. Revenue growth - achieve guidance?
2. Profitability - margin expand?
3. Rig utilization - fleet expansion on track?

EXIT Triggers (Immediate SELL if any):

• 🔴 Major contract loss (PHR not renewed)
• 🔴 Loss return (profit turn negative)
• 🔴 Liquidity warning (equity raise needed)
• 🔴 FCF deteriorate further

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KESIMPULANh2

PT Ginting Jaya Energi adalah HIGH-RISK RECOVERY SPECULATION dengan:

✓ Positif Factors:

• Revenue growing strongly (+120% YoY)
• Balance sheet solid (D/E 0,13x, Altman 7,49)
• Good liquidity (rasio lancar 3,94x)
• Profitable (turning from loss)
• Contract pipeline visible (Rp 300M PHR)

🔴 Negative Factors:

• Profitabilitas MARGINAL (margin 3,6%)
• CASH BURN (-Rp 22M FCF)
• Very low returns (ROE 1,55%)
• No dividen
• Valuation expensive (P/E 27x)
• Commodity-cycle risk (oil dependent)

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FINAL RATING: 🟡 TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE HOLD

Not recommended untuk conservative investor. Cocok untuk risk-taker yang spekulasi turnaround. Current price Rp 90 sudah reflect harapan positif - wait for pullback ke Rp 60-75 untuk better entry, atau SKIP for safer opportunities.

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Analisis dibuat 24 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & 9M 2025 data, kontrak Rp 300M PHR announcement September 2025, dan migas industry context.