Analisis mendalam saham RMKO berdasarkan laporan keuangan kuartal 3 2025 dan 9 bulan 2025. Evaluasi fundamental, valuasi, risiko kebangkrutan, dan rekomendasi investasi terkini.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 23 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 314 per lembar
Sektor: Energi - Jasa Kontraktor Pertambangan Batu Bara (Mining Services Contractor)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 388 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 1,25 Miliar lembar
🔴 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - HINDARI / JUALh2
Rating: 🔴 HINDARI / JUAL (Perusahaan Lossmaking, Leverage Tinggi, Fundamental Terdeteriorasi, Solvabilitas Concern, Valuasi Overpriced)
RMKO adalah perusahaan jasa kontraktor pertambangan batu bara yang sedang menghadapi tantangan operasional serius: rugi besar kuartal terakhir, arus kas operasi negatif, leverage tinggi, dan solvabilitas dalam zona distress. Meskipun ada target pertumbuhan ambitious untuk 2026 (Rp 600 Miliar revenue), execution risk sangat tinggi dan current fundamental merah semua.
Masalah Kritis (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9 Bulan 2025):
| Item | Nilai | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan (TTM) | Rp 284 Miliar | DECLINE vs historical |
| Laba Kotor (TTM) | Rp 43 Miliar | Margin 15%, thin untuk konstruksi |
| EBITDA (TTM) | Rp 0 (ZERO) | 🔴 NO OPERATING PROFIT |
| Laba Bersih (TTM) | Rp (60) MILIAR | 🔴 MASSIVE LOSS |
| Laba K3 2025 | Rp 4 MILIAR | Positive tapi one-off anomali |
| Margin Bersih TTM | -21,1% | 🔴 HUGE LOSS |
| Arus Operasi TTM | Rp (92) MILIAR | 🔴 BURN CASH SEVERELY |
| Dividen | TIDAK ADA | No return to shareholder |
Masalah Fundamental Akut:
- 🔴 TTM Loss Rp 60 Miliar - perusahaan unprofitable besar-besaran
- 🔴 EBITDA ZERO - tidak bisa bayar bunga, operasi tidak profitable
- 🔴 OCF Negatif Rp 92 Miliar - CASH BURN PARAH
- 🔴 Leverage TINGGI - Utang Rp 423 Miliar vs Equity Rp 176 Miliar = D/E 2,4x
- 🔴 Skor Altman -2,93 - 🔴 🔴 BANKRUPTCY DISTRESS ZONE
- 🔴 Rasio Lancar 0,40x - CRITICALLY LOW (< 0,5 danger)
- 🔴 Interest Coverage -4,14x - NEGATIVE (tidak bisa bayar bunga dari operasi)
- 🔴 ROE -33,94% - MASSIVE value destruction
- 🔴 Valuasi overpriced - P/E -6,48x (negative, tapi harga masih premium untuk loss)
Kesimpulan Awal: RMKO adalah distressed company dengan bankruptcy risk dalam 12-24 bulan jika fundamental tidak improve dramatically. Skor Altman -2,93 adalah RED ALERT extreme. Pemegang saham existing harus JUAL SEKARANG cut loss, bukan hold untuk recovery.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN KRITISh2
A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 23 Desember 2025)h3
PERHATIAN FORMAT ANGKA:
Dari lampiran RMKO, format:
- “284 B” = Rp 284 Miliar
- “29 B” dengan parentheses = Rp (29) Miliar = loss/negative
- “4 B” = Rp 4 Miliar
- Konversi telah dilakukan ke format Indonesia (Miliar sebagai base unit)
Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):
| Metrik | TTM | 9M 2025 | Kuartal 3 2025 | Kuartal 3 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan | 284 Miliar | 176 Miliar | 109 Miliar | 65 Miliar |
| Laba Kotor | 43 Miliar | 27 Miliar | 11 Miliar | 9 Miliar |
| EBITDA | 0 | (5) Miliar | (3) Miliar | 27 Miliar |
| Laba Bersih | (60) Miliar | (9) Miliar | 4 Miliar | (15) Miliar |
⚠️ CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS:
- K3 2025 laba Rp 4M positif (anomali) - tapi 9M accumulated loss Rp 9M
- TTM loss Rp 60M = EBITDA Rp 0 plus interest/tax expense
- EBITDA negatif/zero = operasi tidak sustainable
- Revenue growth tapi profitabilitas jatuh drastis
Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:
| Kuartal | Laba (Rp Miliar) | Margin % | Per Saham (Rp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| K1 2025 | (29) | -26,6% | (23,23) |
| K2 2025 | (27) | -9,8% | (21,60) |
| K3 2025 | 4 | 3,7% | 3,20 |
| Total 9M | (52) | -29,5% | (41,63) |
🔴 Trend TERRIBLE: K1-K2 besar loss, K3 kecil profit (likely one-off). Net 9M loss besar.
Metrik Per Saham:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Laba Per Saham (TTM) | Rp (47,86) 🔴 |
| Laba Per Saham (Annual) | Rp (54,24) 🔴 |
| Pendapatan Per Saham (TTM) | Rp 227,32 |
| Kas Per Saham | Rp 4,03 |
| Nilai Buku Per Saham | Rp 141,02 |
| Arus Kas Bebas Per Saham | Rp (61,48) 🔴 |
🔴 EPS TTM -Rp 47,86 = perusahaan lossmaking. Harga Rp 314 tidak punya fundamental support.
Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):
| Item | Nilai (Rp Miliar) |
|---|---|
| Kas | 5 Miliar |
| Total Aset | 598 Miliar |
| Total Utang | 423 Miliar |
| Total Ekuitas | 176 Miliar |
| Utang Jangka Panjang | 47 Miliar |
| Utang Jangka Pendek | 69 Miliar |
| Total Utang | 116 Miliar (per table, discrepancy dari 423M perlu klarifikasi) |
| Utang Bersih | 111 Miliar |
| Modal Kerja | (226) Miliar 🔴 |
⚠️ MODAL KERJA NEGATIF RPRp 226 MILIAR = WORKING CAPITAL CRISIS
Artinya kewajiban jangka pendek Rp 226M lebih besar dari current assets. Ini adalah bankruptcy warning.
Arus Kas (TTM):
| Komponen | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Arus dari Operasi | (92) M 🔴 |
| Investasi | 1 M |
| Arus Kas Bebas | (91) M 🔴 |
| Dari Pendanaan | 91 M (refinance/debt) |
🔴 OCF NEGATIVE Rp 92 MILIAR = CASH BURNING FAST
Perusahaan tidak generate cash dari operasi. Setiap tahun burn Rp 92M. At this rate, cash depleted dalam 0,5-1 tahun jika refinance stops.
Valuasi (pada harga Rp 314):
| Metrik | Nilai | Penilaian |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | -6,48x | 🔴 NEGATIVE (loss) |
| P/E (Annual) | -5,66x | 🔴 NEGATIVE |
| Harga/Nilai Buku | 2,20x | 🔴 PREMIUM GANDA untuk loss company |
| Harga/Penjualan | 1,36x | 🟡 Fair jika profitable |
| EV/EBITDA | -7,454,00x | 🔴 NEGATIVE (zero EBITDA) |
| Hasil Earning | -15,44% | 🔴 NEGATIVE (EPS negative) |
🔴 Valuasi SANGAT OVERPRICED untuk perusahaan unprofitable dengan negative cash flow.
Harga Rp 314 tidak rational - spekulasi atau short squeeze kemungkinan.
Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):
| Margin | Persentase |
|---|---|
| Margin Laba Kotor | 10,00% |
| Margin Operasi | 5,68% |
| Margin Laba Bersih | 3,47% 🟡 |
⚠️ K3 margin bersih positive (anomali) - likely one-off gain atau timing. TTM overall loss.
Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 vs Tahun Lalu):
| Metrik | Pertumbuhan |
|---|---|
| Pendapatan | +67,07% ✓ |
| Laba Kotor | +30,64% |
| Laba Bersih | +1.498,43% 🔴 |
⚠️ Revenue naik 67% tapi laba jatuh drastis (dari loss Rp 15M jadi… kecil positive Rp 4M = improvement). Ini menunjukkan biaya operasi/interest expense membengkak lebih cepat dari revenue.
Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):
| Metrik | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Rasio Lancar | 0,40x | 🔴 CRITICALLY LOW |
| Rasio Cepat | 0,31x | 🔴 EXTREMELY LOW |
| Utang/Ekuitas | 2,40x | 🔴 VERY HIGH |
| Total Utang/Aset | 0,71x | 🔴 VERY HIGH (71% asset financed by debt) |
| Kemampuan Bayar Bunga | -4,14x | 🔴 NEGATIVE (tidak bisa bayar bunga) |
| Skor Altman | -2,93 | 🔴 🔴 BANKRUPTCY EXTREME ZONE |
🔴 SKOR ALTMAN -2,93 = BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT RISK
Interpretasi:
-
2,6: Safe
- 1,1-2,6: Grey zone
- < 1,1: Bankruptcy risk
- -2,93: EXTREME DISTRESS (Altman model predicts bankruptcy high probability)
Perusahaan dalam kondisi financial emergency. Refinance failure atau operational deterioration → bankruptcy dalam 12 bulan.
Efektivitas Manajemen:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Hasil Aset (ROA) | -9,99% 🔴 |
| Hasil Ekuitas (ROE) | -33,94% 🔴 |
| Return Modal Bekerja | -27,36% 🔴 |
| Return Modal Tertanam | -25,69% 🔴 |
🔴 SEMUA RETURN NEGATIVE - MASSIVE VALUE DESTRUCTION
Shareholder capital sedang eroded. ROE -34% = setiap rupiah capital merugi 34 sen setiap tahun.
B. Konteks Historis & Tren Deteriorasi (dari Penelitian)h3
Timeline RMKO:
- 2017: Didirikan sebagai PT Rantai Mulia Kontraktorindo
- 2022: Berganti nama jadi PT Royaltama Mulia Kontraktorindo (RMKO)
- 2023 Agustus: IPO di BEI (listing di papan Pengembangan)
- 2024: Full year operasi publik
- 2025: Kondisi merugi besar, capex Rp 36,6 Miliar (overshadow profit)
Target Management 2026:
Dari research Januari 2025:
- Revenue target: Rp 600 Miliar (2x dari Rp 284M TTM)
- Profit target: Rp 100 Miliar
- Capex 2026: Rp 26-30 Miliar
⚠️ Target sangat ambitious tapi execution risk EXTREME:
- Memerlukan operasi turnaround 180 derajat
- Dari loss Rp 60M → profit Rp 100M = improvement Rp 160M needed
- Memerlukan new client contracts yang material
- Debt refinancing perlu secure (saat ini solvabilitas stress)
Reality Check:
Jika target tercapai tahun 2026, baru bisa normalize fundamentals. Tapi 2025 still in crisis mode.
C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industrih3
Landscape Kontraktor Pertambangan Batu Bara:
| Kompetitor | Ukuran | Strategi |
|---|---|---|
| Bukit Asam (PTBA) | Raksasa | Integrated miner + in-house contractor |
| PT Vale Indonesia | Raksasa | Integrated miner (nikel) |
| PT Adaro Indonesia | Besar | Major coal producer + contractor services |
| RMKO | KECIL | Third-party contractor (specialized) |
| Various mid-tier contractors | Kecil-menengah | Regional services |
Posisi RMKO:
✓ Strengths (teoritis):
- Affiliation dengan RMKE (batu bara logistik) → integrated supply chain
- Spesialisasi mining support services
- Geographic focus Sumatra Selatan (logistik efisien)
- Diversified services (hauling road, coal mining, equipment rental, construction)
🔴 Weaknesses (actual):
- Scale KECIL vs Bukit Asam, Adaro (kemungkinan 1-3% market size)
- Highly dependent on RMKE group business (concentration risk)
- Customer base limited (few major coal producers)
- Financial stress threatening continuity
🟡 Opportunities:
- Coal demand recovery 2025-2026 (commodity cycle)
- New clients (target WSL, DBU in Muara Enim)
- Hauling road expansion (more capacity = more revenue)
- Services diversification (concrete production, construction)
🔴 Threats:
- Coal cycle downturn (prices drop = mining capex cut)
- Major customer (RMKE affiliation) could integrate services (reduce outsourcing)
- Competitors scale faster (larger players)
- Debt maturity pressure (refinance needs at adverse terms)
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: 🔴 LOSSMAKING, NOT SUSTAINABLE
| Margin | K3 2025 | 9M 2025 | TTM | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin Kotor | 10% | 15% | 15% | 14% |
| Margin Operasi | 5,68% | -2,8% | 0% | ~5% |
| Margin Bersih | 3,47% | -5,1% | -21,1% | Loss |
🔴 TTM Margin Bersih -21% = unprofitable. Loss Rp 60M dari Rp 284M revenue.
⚠️ K3 2025 positive margin - tapi one-off. Underlying trend deteriorating.
🔴 EBITDA ZERO = operasi tidak generate profit setelah fixed cost. Interest expense very high relative to EBITDA.
Berkelanjutan?
🔴 TIDAK - margin negative not sustainable. Perlu immediate cost restructuring atau revenue expansion dramatic.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: 🔴 CRITICAL - NEGATIVE OCF, CASH BURN
| Komponen | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Arus Operasi | (92) Miliar 🔴 |
| Investasi | 1 Miliar |
| Arus Kas Bebas | (91) Miliar 🔴 |
| Dari Pendanaan | 91 Miliar (refinance) |
🔴 OCF NEGATIVE Rp 92M = CASH BURN SEVERE
Perusahaan TIDAK GENERATE CASH dari operasi. Burn Rp 92M annually.
With cash Rp 5M = depleted dalam < 1 bulan jika funding stops.
🔴 FCF NEGATIVE Rp 91M - semua kas dari refinance/debt.
Sustainability:
Jika refinance tidak berhasil (bank pull funding due to distress), company insolvent dalam weeks.
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: 🔴 LEVERAGE TINGGI, SOLVABILITAS DISTRESS
| Metrik | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Utang/Ekuitas | 2,40x | 🔴 VERY HIGH |
| Total Utang/Aset | 0,71x | 🔴 71% FINANCED BY DEBT |
| Rasio Lancar | 0,40x | 🔴 CRITICALLY LOW |
| Skor Altman | -2,93 | 🔴 🔴 BANKRUPTCY EXTREME |
| Interest Coverage | -4,14x | 🔴 CANNOT PAY INTEREST |
🔴 D/E 2,4x = VERY HIGH leverage - utang 2,4x lebih besar dari equity.
🔴 71% asset financed by debt = equity cushion thin. Jika asset value decline 30%, equity gone.
🔴 Rasio Lancar 0,40x = WORKING CAPITAL CRISIS
Current liabilities jauh melebihi current assets. Company tidak bisa meet short-term obligations tanpa refinancing.
🔴 SKOR ALTMAN -2,93 = BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT
Model Altman predict bankruptcy probability >90%. Red alert extreme.
🔴 Interest Coverage -4,14x = NEGATIVE
Perusahaan tidak bisa bayar interest dari operating income. Interest dibayar dari refinancing/asset sale.
Debt Maturity:
- Short-term: Rp 69M (harus bayar 12 bulan)
- Long-term: Rp 47M
- Total: Rp 116M+ (per balance sheet)
Refinance risk sangat tinggi. If bank/lender pull funding → immediate insolvency.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: 🔴 MASSIVE VALUE DESTRUCTION
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| ROE | -33,94% 🔴 |
| ROA | -9,99% 🔴 |
| ROIC | -25,69% 🔴 |
🔴 ROE -34% = shareholder capital losing 34% value annually.
This is severe destruction. Investor capital being eroded.
No path to profitability clear unless operations turnaround dramatically.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: 🔴 NO DIVIDEND, PURE LOSS
| Tahun | Dividen |
|---|---|
| 2025 | - |
| 2024 | - |
🔴 TIDAK ADA DIVIDEN - perusahaan lossmaking.
Return pemegang saham: NEGATIVE (capital loss).
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | 🔴 Loss -21% | 0/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | 🔴 Burn -92M | 0/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | 🔴 D/E 2,4x, Altman -2,93 | 0/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | 🔴 ROE -34% | 0/5 |
| 5. Dividen | 🔴 None | 0/5 |
| RATA-RATA | 🔴 DISTRESSED | 0/5 |
Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam BANKRUPTCY DISTRESS kondisi. Fundamental semua merah. Skor Altman -2,93 adalah alarm bankruptcy imminent.
TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2
Valuasi pada Harga Rp 314h3
| Metrik | Nilai | Penilaian |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | -6,48x | 🔴 MEANINGLESS (loss) |
| Harga/Nilai Buku | 2,20x | 🔴 PREMIUM GANDA |
| Harga/Penjualan | 1,36x | 🔴 OVERPRICED untuk loss company |
| EV/EBITDA | -7,454,00x | 🔴 MEANINGLESS (zero EBITDA) |
🔴 Harga Rp 314 adalah COMPLETELY IRRATIONAL untuk lossmaking company dengan bankruptcy risk.
Fair Value Estimationh3
Method 1: Liquidation Value
Asumsi forced asset sale (distressed scenario):
- Total assets: Rp 598 Miliar
- Less: Total liabilities: Rp 423 Miliar
- Liquidation equity: Rp 175 Miliar
- Per share (1.25B shares): Rp 140
But in distressed scenario, assets sell at discount 20-40%:
- Discounted assets: Rp 359-479M
- Less liabilities: Rp 423M
- Liquidation value: NEGATIVE or near-zero
Per share: Rp 0-50 (depends on recovery rate)
Method 2: Going Concern Value (DCF Turnaround)
Assuming 2026 management targets realized:
- 2026 EBIT: Rp 100 Miliar (profit)
- Terminal value: Rp 100M / 0,10 = Rp 1.000M
- Less: Net debt Rp 111M
- Equity value: Rp 889M
- Per share: Rp 711
But probability of achieving target: < 20% (execution risk extreme).
Discount for probability: Rp 711 × 20% = Rp 142
Kesimpulan Valuasih3
| Model | Fair Value |
|---|---|
| Liquidation | Rp 0-50 |
| DCF Turnaround (prob-weighted) | Rp 140 |
| Current Price | Rp 314 |
| Assessment | 🔴 MASSIVELY OVERPRICED (2-6x overvalue) |
TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIOh2
Skenario Positif / Bull (Probability 20%)h3
Pemicu (Extremely Optimistic):
- 2026 management target achieved (Rp 600M revenue, Rp 100M profit)
- Debt restructuring negotiate & extend (no default)
- New major contracts signed
- Coal cycle recovery strong
- Operational turnaround executed perfectly
Proyeksi 2026-2027:
- Pendapatan: Rp 600 Miliar
- EBIT: Rp 100 Miliar
- Laba: Rp 80 Miliar
- EPS: Rp 64
- Fair P/E: 15x (recovery multiple)
- Harga Target: Rp 960
- Return: +206% dalam 2 tahun
⚠️ Even in bull case, probability only 20%.
Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 30%)h3
Pemicu:
- Partial recovery 2026 (Rp 350-400M revenue)
- Still unprofitable but loss narrows
- Debt refinance extends maturity
- No bankruptcy but restructuring likely
Proyeksi 2026-2027:
- Pendapatan: Rp 350-400 Miliar
- EBIT: Loss Rp 20-30 Miliar (margin squeeze persists)
- Laba: Loss Rp 40-50 Miliar
- Fair valuation: Distressed, P/B 0,5x
- Harga Target: Rp 70-100
- Return: -68 to -75% (major crash)
Skenario Pesimis / Bear (Probability 50%)h3
pemicu:
- Operations deteriorate further
- Coal cycle down (demand weak)
- Debt default / covenant breach
- Bankruptcy filing
- Equity wiped out or severely diluted
Proyeksi 2026-2027:
- Pendapatan: Rp 200-250 Miliar
- Laba: Loss continuing
- Debt restructuring likely (equity dilution)
- Stock crash to Rp 0-20 (liquidation)
- Return: -94 to -100% (total loss)
Nilai Harapan (Tertimbang)h3
| Skenario | Peluang | Return | Tertimbang |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positif | 20% | +206% | +41% |
| Base | 30% | -70% | -21% |
| Pesimis | 50% | -95% | -47,5% |
| HARAPAN | 100% | -60% | -27,5% |
🔴 EXPECTED RETURN: -27,5% dalam 2 tahun (probability weighted).
Dengan 50% probability loss 95%+, ini adalah VERY RISKY.
FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2
Red Flags (IMMEDIATE EXIT):h3
- 🔴 Debt covenant breach announcement
- 🔴 Debt default warning
- 🔴 Bankruptcy filing / reorganization
- 🔴 Major customer loss (RMKE)
- 🔴 Equity capital raise >50% dilution
- 🔴 Management exit/scandal
- 🔴 Delisting threat
Katalis Positif (unlikely tapi monitor):h3
- ✓ Major contract signed (material revenue)
- ✓ Debt restructuring announced (extend maturity)
- ✓ Profitability path clear (EBITDA positive)
REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: 🔴 HINDARI / JUALh3
Untuk PEMEGANG SAHAM EXISTING:
- 🔴 JUAL SEKARANG - cut loss immediately
- Jangan hold untuk recovery (probability < 20%)
- Better to realize loss now, redeploy capital
- Bankruptcy risk within 12-24 months
- Skor Altman -2,93 adalah critical warning
Untuk CALON PEMBELI:
- 🔴 HINDARI COMPLETELY
- Harga Rp 314 tidak rational untuk bankruptcy risk company
- Risk 95% loss probability outweigh bull case 206%
- Expected return -27,5% negative
- Better opportunities elsewhere
Target Hargah3
| Periode | Harga Target | Return | Peluang |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Bulan | Rp 100-200 | -36 to -68% | 60% |
| 6 Bulan | Rp 50-150 | -52 to -84% | 50% |
| 12 Bulan | Rp 20-100 | -68 to -94% | 50% |
| Bull Case (2026+) | Rp 960 | +206% | 20% |
| Base Case (2026+) | Rp 70-100 | -68 to -75% | 30% |
| Bear Case (2026+) | Rp 0-20 | -94 to -100% | 50% |
Siapa Cocok Membeli RMKO?h3
| Tipe Investor | Rekomendasi | Alasan |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 🔴 SKIP | Bankruptcy risk too high |
| Value Investor | 🔴 SKIP | Value trap, not value opportunity |
| Growth Investor | 🔴 SKIP | Deteriorating, not growth |
| Distressed Specialist | ⚠️ VERY RISKY | Only if expertise in restructuring |
| Spekulant | 🔴 SKIP | Probability weighted return negative |
MONITORING CHECKLISTh2
RED FLAGS - IMMEDIATE EXIT if ANY:
- 🔴 Debt covenant breach / default notice
- 🔴 Bankruptcy filing announcement
- 🔴 Major customer loss (RMKE contract)
- 🔴 Operating loss widening (not narrowing)
- 🔴 Delisting threat / stock suspension
Monitoring Points (if somehow holding):
- Quarterly earnings - trend improvement or worse?
- Debt refinancing - extended or facing difficulty?
- New contracts - material orders or declining?
- Debt/EBITDA ratio - improving or spiking?
KESIMPULANh2
PT Royaltama Mulia Kontraktorindo Tbk adalah BANKRUPTCY RISK company dengan:
🔴 Fundamental Collapse:
- TTM loss Rp 60M (margin -21%)
- EBITDA zero (tidak bisa bayar bunga)
- OCF burn Rp 92M (cash depletion)
- Skor Altman -2,93 (bankruptcy extreme)
🔴 Solvabilitas Distress:
- D/E 2,4x (very high leverage)
- Rasio lancar 0,40x (working capital crisis)
- Interest coverage -4,14x (cannot pay interest)
🔴 Valuasi Sangat Overpriced:
- P/E -6,48x (negative, meaningless)
- Harga Rp 314 vs fair value Rp 0-140
- 2-6x overvalued
🔴 Expected Return Negative:
- Probability-weighted -27,5% dalam 2 tahun
- 50% probability loss 95%+
- Bull case only 20% probability
Rekomendasi Final: JUAL atau HINDARI COMPLETELY. Bankruptcy risk dalam 12-24 bulan sangat tinggi. Tidak ada risk-reward yang acceptable untuk investor.
Analisis dibuat 23 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & 9M 2025 data, ditambah riset industri kontraktor pertambangan batu bara Indonesia terbaru.
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