Analisis mendalam saham EPAC per Q3 2025: kerugian struktural berlanjut, krisis likuiditas parah, risiko kebangkrutan tinggi, rekomendasi AVOID total.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 5 Januari 2026
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 41 per lembar
Ticker: EPAC (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Megalestari Epack Sentosaraya Tbk
Sektor: Manufaktur - Kemasan Plastik Fleksibel (Flexible Packaging: Makanan, Kosmetik, Healthcare)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 135 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 3,30 Miliar lembar
Didirikan: 2013 (13 tahun) | IPO: Tier 3 (Small Cap)
🔴 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - AVOID (PACKAGING COMPANY NEAR-BANKRUPTCY, STRUCTURAL LOSSES ONGOING, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, NO MARGIN OF SAFETY)h2
Rating: 🔴 AVOID completely (Perusahaan kemasan plastik dalam crisis serius: revenue Rp 160M stabil tapi profit loss Rp (11) Miliar TTM, Q1-Q3 2025 loss Rp (9) Miliar dengan Q3 worst Rp (8.5) Miliar, liquidity severe crisis (current ratio 0.54, quick ratio 0.38), negative OCF trend ongoing, 2025 recovery guidance Rp 9.5M profit extremely ambitious unproven, Altman -1.73 BANKRUPTCY LEVEL distress, interest coverage -0.19x cannot cover debt service, margin keselamatan ZERO, HANYA untuk bankruptcy specialists)
EPAC adalah perusahaan kemasan plastik fleksibel spesialisasi food/cosmetics packaging. TTM revenue Rp 160M stabil (no growth), TTM profit loss Rp (11) Miliar CRITICAL. 2025 fundamental deterioration: revenue Q1-Q3 Rp 1.95T (+4.39% vs 2024 = minimal), gross profit loss trend (operating -2.62%, net -8.66% margins catastrophic). Q1 loss Rp (2) Miliar, Q2 loss Rp (3) Miliar, Q3 loss Rp (8.5) Miliar (WORSENING) = 9M 2025 loss Rp (13.5) Miliar vs guidance Rp 9.5M profit = MISS massive. Dividen none. Current ratio 0.54 (below 1.0 LIQUIDITY CRISIS), quick ratio 0.38 extreme stress. Cash position Rp 1M only (CRITICAL). Altman -1.73 (bankruptcy level). OCF positive +15M TTM but deteriorating quarter-over-quarter (OCF Q3 2024 Rp 4.9M weak). 2025 recovery strategy: revenue target Rp 220M (53.8% growth), profit Rp 9.5M (FROM LOSS) IF expansion pet food/healthcare/personal care succeeds + capacity utilization improves. Management optimistic but execution FAILED so far (Q3 loss WORSE). Piotroski 8.0 superficially okay but masked by severe losses. P/B 1.92x overvalued. P/S 0.85x relative cheap but irrelevant with massive losses. Momentum +5.13% YTD weak. Rating AVOID - bankruptcy/restructuring likely IF 2025 recovery doesn’t materialize Q4 2025 onwards.
Status Kini (Data Q3 2025, 9M 2025, TTM) - CRITICAL DISTRESS:
| Item | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp 160 Miliar | Stabil, no growth |
| Laba Kotor TTM | Rp 20 Miliar | 12.5% margin minimal |
| EBITDA TTM | Rp 28 Miliar | 17.5% mask by losses |
| Laba Bersih TTM | Rp (11) Miliar | LOSS SEVERE ❌ |
| Q1-Q3 2025 Revenue | Rp 1.95 Miliar | +4.39% weak |
| Q1-Q3 2025 Loss | Rp (13.5) Miliar | WORSENING ❌ |
| Q3 2025 Loss | Rp (8.5) Miliar | WORST quarter ❌ |
| 2025F Guidance | Rp 9.5M profit est | Unproven, missed so far ⚠️ |
| Current Ratio | 0,54x | LIQUIDITY CRISIS ❌ |
| Quick Ratio | 0,38x | EXTREME STRESS ❌ |
| OCF TTM | Rp 15 Miliar | Positive but declining |
| FCF TTM | Rp 9 Miliar | Marginal positive |
| Altman Score | -1,73 | BANKRUPTCY LEVEL ❌ |
| D/E Ratio | 0,80x | Moderate high |
| Dividen 2025 | Rp 0 | None (conservation) |
| P/E (TTM) | -12,71x | Loss company |
| Momentum YTD | +5.13% | Weak |
Profil Packaging Distress:
- ❌ Structural losses ongoing - Revenue Rp 160M but loss Rp (11) Miliar TTM
- ❌ Profitability deterioration - Q3 loss Rp (8.5) Miliar (worst quarter YTD)
- ❌ Liquidity severe crisis - Current ratio 0.54, quick ratio 0.38 (below safety)
- ❌ Altman -1.73 bankruptcy level - Solvency stressed critically
- ❌ 2025 recovery unproven - Guidance Rp 9.5M profit but Q1-Q3 LOST Rp (13.5) Miliar
- ❌ Interest coverage negative - Cannot service debt at current profitability
- ❌ Margin of safety ZERO - Any disruption = bankruptcy
Kesimpulan Awal: EPAC adalah PACKAGING NEAR-BANKRUPTCY - Structural losses ongoing, liquidity crisis severe, Altman distress level, 2025 recovery unproven + failing. AVOID completely.
ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILAR (BANKRUPTCY-LEVEL DISTRESS)h2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: ❌ STRUCTURAL LOSSES, DETERIORATING
❌ Loss Rp (11) Miliar TTM - Structural unprofitability.
❌ Q1-Q3 2025 loss Rp (13.5) Miliar - Trend WORSENING not improving.
❌ Q3 2025 loss Rp (8.5) Miliar worst - Quarterly deterioration clear.
❌ 2025 guidance Rp 9.5M profit unproven - Failed so far, unlikely 100%+ swing Q4.
Assessment: Profitability catastrophic = BANKRUPTCY RISK extreme.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: 🟡 OCF positive but declining, near negative
🟡 OCF +15M TTM still positive - But quarter trend declining.
❌ FCF +9M marginal - Capex pressure ongoing.
❌ Cash position Rp 1M only - CRITICAL low.
❌ No financing cushion - Any disruption = cash crisis.
Assessment: Cashflow borderline = LIQUIDITY CRISIS imminent.
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: ❌ BANKRUPTCY-LEVEL DISTRESS
❌ Altman -1.73 bankruptcy level - Extreme distress signal.
❌ Current ratio 0.54 < 1.0 - Cannot pay short-term obligations.
❌ Quick ratio 0.38 - Acute liquidity crisis.
❌ Interest coverage -0.19x - Cannot service debt interest.
Assessment: Solvency = BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT if not improved rapidly.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: ❌ SEVERELY NEGATIVE, VALUE DESTRUCTION
❌ ROA -4.28%, ROE -15.09% - Severe destruction.
❌ ROIC negative - Value destroying not creating.
❌ Returns collapsing - Loss expansion translates to wipeout.
Assessment: Returns catastrophic = EQUITY WIPEOUT likely.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: ❌ NO DIVIDEN, EQUITY DILUTION + WIPEOUT RISK
❌ No dividend (conservation) - Obvious with losses.
❌ Equity eroding - Loss Rp (11) Miliar TTM destroys equity base.
❌ Capital appreciation impossible - Only downside risk.
❌ Likely restructuring - Equity dilution/wipeout expected.
Assessment: Shareholder return = NEGATIVE/WIPEOUT.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | ❌ Structural losses, worsening | 0.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | 🟡 Declining positive | 1/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | ❌ Bankruptcy-level distress | 0.5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | ❌ Severely negative | 0.5/5 |
| 5. Dividen | ❌ None, equity wipeout risk | 0/5 |
| RATA-RATA | ❌ BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT | 0.5/5 |
Score 0.5/5 = CRITICAL WORST.
VALUASI & BANKRUPTCY RISKh2
| Scenario | Fair Value | Current (Rp 41) | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bankruptcy (liquidation) | Rp 5-10 | Rp 41 | -76-88% |
| Restructuring (equity wipeout) | Rp 10-20 | Rp 41 | -51-76% |
| 2026 recovery success | Rp 30-50 | Rp 41 | -27 to +22% |
🔴 FAIR VALUE Rp 10-20 = Current Rp 41 MASSIVELY OVERVALUED 100%+ premium = AVOID.
SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2
| Scenario | Probability | Return | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bankruptcy/Restructuring | 60% | -80% | Rp 8 |
| Muddle through zombie | 25% | -40% | Rp 25 |
| 2026 recovery | 15% | +20% | Rp 49 |
| Expected | -65% | Rp 14 |
🔴 Expected return -65% SEVERE DOWNSIDE.
REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: 🔴 AVOID COMPLETELY - BANKRUPTCY IMMINENTh3
🔴 DO NOT BUY AT ANY PRICE - Bankruptcy specialist play only
Why AVOID:
- ❌ Structural losses Rp (11) Miliar TTM ongoing
- ❌ Q1-Q3 2025 loss Rp (13.5) Miliar trend WORSENING
- ❌ Liquidity crisis current ratio 0.54, quick 0.38 (below safety)
- ❌ Altman -1.73 bankruptcy-level distress
- ❌ 2025 recovery guidance unproven + FAILING
- ❌ Interest coverage negative -0.19x (cannot pay interest)
- ❌ Margin of safety ZERO
- ❌ Equity wipeout probability 60% (restructuring likely)
- ❌ Expected return -65% severe downside
- ❌ Current Rp 41 MASSIVELY OVERVALUED vs restructuring scenario
Investment Grade: 🔴 F (FAIL) - BANKRUPTCY/RESTRUCTURING IMMINENT. Do not buy.
KOMPETITOR & PELUANGh2
Competitive: Plastic packaging market Indonesia competitive. EPAC versus larger players (IPP, etc.).
Peluang (Low Probability):
- 🟢 2026 recovery IF pet food/healthcare diversification succeeds (unlikely given Q3 worsening)
- 🟢 Strategic investor bailout (possible but dilution massive)
Ancaman (High Probability):
- 🔴 Continued losses → covenant breach → restructuring
- 🔴 Liquidity exhaustion → bankruptcy filing
KESIMPULANh2
EPAC adalah 🔴 AVOID/BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT - EXTREME DISTRESS, LIKELY RESTRUCTURING WITHIN 12-18 MONTHS.
Do not invest.
Analisis dibuat 5 Januari 2026 berdasarkan Q3 2025 results, TTM deterioration, dan structural distress indicators.
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