Pendahuluan: Dari Profit Champion ke Distressed Holder - Apa yang Terjadi?h2

PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya Tbk (SRTG), yang dikenal sebagai leading private equity firm Indonesia dengan 30 tahun sejarah investasi, menghadapi krisis earnings yang severe di 2025. Perusahaan yang tahun lalu (2024) membukukan profit Rp 5,2 triliun dan membagikan dividen Rp 22 per saham, kini rugi massif Rp 2,43 triliun hanya dalam 9 bulan pertama 2025, dengan Net Asset Value (NAV) turun 12,2% dari puncak Rp 53,9 triliun (akhir 2024) menjadi Rp 48,0 triliun (Q1 2025).

Saham yang pernah mencapai Rp 3.970 di 2022 kini merosot menjadi Rp 1.885 - turun 53% dari puncak. Bahkan lebih mengejutkan, saham saat ini trading BELOW BOOK VALUE pada 0.52x P/B ratio, sebuah kondisi langka yang mengindikasikan market tidak percaya pada nilai yang dilaporkan, atau mengantisipasi deterioration lebih lanjut.

Pertanyaan kritis untuk investor adalah: Apakah SRTG adalah value trap yang akan terus terperosok, atau apakah ini adalah deep value opportunity yang menunggu untuk portfolio companies recover?

Analisis ini akan mengungkap kompleksitas di balik krisis SRTG, penyebab sebenarnya dari losses, dan mengapa valuation murah tidak selalu bermakna good deal.

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Bagian 1: Apa Itu SRTG - Private Equity Company dengan Long Track Recordh2

Company Backgroundh3

PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya Tbk bukan perusahaan operasional biasa. Sejak didirikan 1995 dan IPO 2013, SRTG beroperasi sebagai active investment firm yang:

• Membeli saham di perusahaan berkembang (growth-stage)
• Memberikan dukungan strategis melalui board seats dan operational guidance
• Membantu perusahaan grow dan mature
• Eventually exit (via divestment, IPO portofolio, or natural payouts)

Kepemilikan: Edwin Soeryadjaya (Sandiaga Uno’s family group) 52.17%, publik 47.83%. Ini adalah family office dengan scale besar.

Filosofi Investasi: “Value creation through active management” - bukan passive holding.

Bisnis Model: Dependent pada Dua Sumber Incomeh3

SRTG’s profitability bergantung pada:

1. Dividend Income dari Portfolio Companies

• ADRO, AADI, TBIG, MPMX, dll
• Regular cash distributions dari holdings
• 2024: Rp 3.8 T dividend
• 2025: Declining (Rp 1.4 T 9M = annualized ~Rp 1.87T, down 51%)

2. Portfolio Gains (Realized & Unrealized)

• When holdings increase in value → paper gains
• When holdings decrease in value → paper losses
• Mark-to-market accounting creates volatility
• 2024: Positive marks + gains = profit
• 2025: Massive negative marks = losses Rp 4.3 T

Total Portfolio Value (LT Investments): Rp 61.5 T

The problem: Both sources are under pressure in 2025.

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Bagian 2: What Went Wrong in 2025 - The Commodity Crashh2

The Perfect Storm: Three Portfolio Companies in Troubleh3

MDKA (PT Merdeka Copper Gold) - 🔴 SEVERELY IMPAIRED

Situation:

• Copper prices crashed 30-40% from 2024 peak
• MDKA production hit by lower prices
• Q3 2025 Revenue: USD 504M (down 11.7% QoQ, 6.8% YoY)
• Balance sheet getting worse, losses mounting

SRTG’s Mark-to-Market Loss:

• MDKA investment carries large mark-down
• Contributes ~Rp 1-2 T of portfolio losses
• Directly hits SRTG’s reported earnings

Timeline Issue:

• Heap leach project was supposed online Q3 2025 (would fix margins)
• Now revised to Q4 2025 (likely miss again)
• Each month delay = project becomes uneconomical faster
• Recovery pushed back 12+ months

ADRO (PT Adaro Resources) & AADI (PT Adaro Andalan) - 🔴 DIVIDEND PRESSURE

Situation:

• Coal prices weak (from USD 400+ to USD 80-100 ranges)
• AADI margin compression: profit down 28.5% YoY
• Dividend cuts likely (was major contributor to SRTG)

SRTG’s Impact:

• Dividend income from coal companies dropped 15.66% YoY
• Expected to decline further in 2026
• Directly reduces SRTG’s earning power

Portfolio Contagion:

• Other holdings (TBIG, MPMX) also mark down due to sector stress
• Aggregate portfolio marks down Rp 4.3 T (9M 2025)

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Bagian 3: Financial Analysis - The Red Flagsh2

Earnings Collapse - From Profit to Lossh3

Timeline:

• 2024 Full Year: Net Income Rp 5.22 T ✅
• 9M 2024: Net Income (likely positive)
• Q1 2025: Loss Rp 6.076 T 🔴
• Q2 2025: Loss Rp 6.178 T 🔴
• Q3 2025: Loss Rp 2.533 T 🔴
• 9M 2025 Total: Loss Rp 14.787 T 🔴 (before tax benefit)
• Net Loss After Tax: Rp 2.43 T 🔴
• TTM Net Income: -Rp 4.359 T (NEGATIVE!) 🔴

Year-over-Year Comparison:

• 9M 2024: Profit Rp 5.22 T
• 9M 2025: Loss Rp 2.43 T
• Swing: -Rp 7.65 T swing in 9 months!

This is CATASTROPHIC deterioration.

Balance Sheet Weakeningh3

Item	Q3 2025	2024	Change	Meaning
Total Assets	Rp 52.844 T	Rp 63.771 T	-17%	Assets shrinking rapidly
Total Equity	Rp 49.135 T	Rp 51.746 T	-5%	Equity being eroded by losses
Cash	Rp 905 B	~Rp 2.0 T	-50%+	Cash burned for operations & dividends
LT Investments	Rp 61.518 T	~62T	Stable	NOT selling holdings (waiting)
NAV	Rp 48.0 T	Rp 53.9 T	-11% YTD	Net asset value declining

Key Insight:

• Company NOT cutting portfolio (still holding) = management believes recovery coming
• But equity/assets shrinking = losses eroding book value
• If losses continue → eventually forced to write down holdings further

Dividend Unsustainability - Dividend Yield Illusionh3

Historical Dividend:

• 2020: Rp 110/share
• 2021: Rp 60/share
• 2022: Rp 75/share
• 2023: Rp 22/share
• 2024: Rp 14.75/share (paid in July, ex-date July 7)
• 2025: Uncertain (company guidance Rp 1.7 T total budget)

Calculation for 2025:

• Rp 1.7 T dividend / 13.56 B shares = Rp 125 per share

BUT this is TARGET, not guarantee.

Current Yield Illusion:

• At Rp 1.885 with Rp 14.75 dividend (2024 actual): 0.78% yield
• Market saying: “Dividend not sustainable, will be cut”
• Payout ratio: -617% (NEGATIVE - paying from capital, not earnings!)

Dividend Safety: 🔴 NOT SAFE. Likely to be cut further 2025.

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Bagian 4: Technical Analysis - Broken Chart, No Reversal Signalsh2

Price History: Massive Declineh3

Period	Price	Status
2022 Peak	Rp 3,970	All-time high
2023	Rp 1,500-2,500	Decline begins
Early 2024	Rp 1,200	Bottom
Sept 2024	Rp 2,100	Recovery attempt
Dec 2024	Rp 2,000-2,200	Struggling
Jan 2026	Rp 1,885	Current

Decline from peak: -53% (Rp 3,970 → Rp 1,885)

Technical Setup - DOWNTREND INTACTh3

From provided chart:

• Long-term downtrend clear from 2022
• EMA (moving averages) all pointing down
• RSI oscillating 40-50 range (not oversold yet)
• Volume: Weak throughout (no conviction on either side)
• No support established above current Rp 1,885

Recent Action (Jan 2026):

• Bounce to Rp 1,900-1,950 range
• But no break above Rp 2,000 resistance
• Volume weak on recovery
• Classic “dead cat bounce” pattern

Technical Verdicth3

Chart is BROKEN. No reversal signals visible. Would need:

• Break above Rp 2,100 with volume
• Confirmation via higher highs/higher lows
• Positive catalysts (portfolio recovery news)

Currently shows 🔴 AVOID from technical perspective.

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Bagian 5: Valuasi - Apakah Murah atau Jebakan?h2

Current Trading Levelsh3

At Rp 1,885 per share:

Multiple	Value	Normal	Assessment
P/B Ratio	0.52x	1.0-1.5x	🔴 BELOW BOOK VALUE
Discount to NAV	-48%	-10% to -20% normal	🔴 EXTREME DISCOUNT
NAV per Share	Rp 3,622	-	-
P/E (TTM)	Negative	10-15x	🔴 LOSING MONEY
Dividend Yield	0.78%	3-5% normal	🔴 UNSUSTAINABLE

Why Trading Below Book Value?h3

Trading at 0.52x book value means market believes:

1. NAV will go down further (portfolio deteriorates)
2. Dividend will be cut more (reducing intrinsic value)
3. Management unable to recover holdings
4. Risk of forced liquidations

This is a WARNING SIGNAL, not a buy signal.

Fair Value Analysish3

Method 1: NAV-Based (If Recovery Happens)

• Current NAV: Rp 48.0 T (Q1 2025, likely lower now)
• Historical multiple: 0.8-1.2x NAV for active PE firm
• If MDKA recovers + commodity cycle turns: Rp 48T NAV
• Fair Value: Rp 38-48T (at 0.8-1.0x)
• Per share: Rp 2,800-3,540
• Current Rp 1,885 = 47% downside implied if NAV goes down further

Method 2: Dividend Discount (Current Reality)

• Sustainable dividend: Rp 10-12/share (not Rp 22)
• Dividend yield 6-8% warranted: Fair value Rp 1,250-1,700
• Current Rp 1,885 = 11-51% upside if dividend holds!

Method 3: Normalized Earnings

• Normal year earnings: Rp 2-3 T
• P/E 8x = Rp 16-24/share??? (WAY TOO LOW!)
• This method breaks down for PE firms

Fair Value Reconciliationh3

Different methods give conflicting signals:

• NAV approach: Maybe 10-30% upside IF portfolio stabilizes
• Dividend approach: 11-51% downside IF dividend really cut
• Current price Rp 1,885: Pricing in further deterioration

Most Likely Scenario:

• Fair value Rp 1,500-2,000 range
• Implies current Rp 1,885 = fair-to-slightly-expensive
• NOT a bargain, but not a disaster either at current level

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Bagian 6: Key Risks - Why This is Distressedh2

Risiko #1: Continued Portfolio Deterioration (CRITICAL)h3

Probability: 40-50%

Mechanism:

• Copper prices remain weak ($5.5-6.5/lb vs$8+ needed)
• Coal prices don’t recover
• China slowdown continues
• Additional portfolio markdowns in 2026

Impact: NAV down another Rp 5-10T (10-20%) → Stock to Rp 1,300-1,500

Risiko #2: Dividend Cut (MATERIAL)h3

Probability: 70%+

Mechanism:

• Current guidance Rp 1.7T / 13.56B shares = Rp 125/share
• But with losses, board may decide to preserve cash
• Real payout likely Rp 8-10/share (vs 2024’s Rp 14.75)

Impact: Yield disappears, stock down 20-30%

Risiko #3: MDKA Heap Leach Delays (CRITICAL)h3

Probability: 60%+

Mechanism:

• Already missed Q3 2025 target
• Revised to Q4 (likely to miss again)
• Large capex projects delay 12-24 months typical
• Each delay = lost operating margin, cash burn
• If delayed to 2026, recovery pushed back 18+ months

Impact: SRTG NAV recovery delayed, stock stays depressed

Risiko #4: Macro Headwinds (SYSTEMIC)h3

Probability: 70%

Mechanism:

• Global recession risk
• China slowdown
• Commodity super-cycle peaked
• High interest rates compress PE valuations

Impact: Portfolio companies stay impaired, earnings stay negative

Risiko #5: Forced Portfolio Liquidationh3

Probability: 20-30% (only if things deteriorate materially)

Mechanism:

• If losses continue, may need to raise cash
• Forced sales at depressed values
• Value destruction for shareholders

Impact: Catastrophic if happens

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Bagian 7: Investment Rekomendasih2

Who Should Avoid SRTG?h3

🔴 Conservative Investors - TOO RISKY 🔴 Income Investors - DIVIDEND UNSUSTAINABLE
🔴 Growth Investors - NO GROWTH VISIBILITY 🔴 Short-term Traders - CHART BROKEN 🔴 Value Investors - NOT A TRUE VALUE (book value at risk)

Who Might Consider?h3

🟡 Ultra-Long-Term Value Investors - ONLY IF:

• Believe commodity cycle recovery is 5-10 years
• Willing to hold through more pain
• Accept dividend cut to lower level
• Conviction that MDKA/ADRO eventually recover

Rating Summaryh3

Factor	Rating	Why
Valuation	🟡 Fair	0.52x book seems cheap but NAV at risk
Fundamentals	🔴 Broken	Losses, dividend unsustainable
Technical	🔴 Broken	Downtrend intact, no reversal
Dividend	🔴 Risky	Will be cut, currently illusion
Near-term (6-12mo)	🔴 Weak	Portfolio won’t recover fast
Long-term (3-5yr)	🟡 Maybe	If commodities recover

OVERALL: 🔴 AVOID

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Bagian 8: Bottom Line - Investment Thesish2

The Bull Case (10% probability):h3

“SRTG trading 48% below NAV is bargain for contrarian. Portfolio fundamentals OK - just marked down temporarily. Copper/coal cycle will turn (always does). MDKA heap leach will deliver. Dividend reverts to Rp 15-20 range. Stock will revalue to Rp 2,500-3,000. Patient investors win.”

Problem: Hinges on cycle recovery - UNCERTAIN TIMING.

The Base Case (60% probability):h3

“SRTG remains in distress 2-3 years. Portfolio companies underperform due to commodity headwinds. NAV grinds down to Rp 40-45T. Dividend normalized Rp 10/share. Stock fair value Rp 1,500-2,000. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.”

Implication: Better to wait for stabilization signals.

The Bear Case (30% probability):h3

“Commodity super-cycle peaked. Coal/copper structurally weak 10+ years. MDKA hemorrhages cash. ADRO/AADI cut dividends to survival levels. SRTG forced to liquidate at distressed prices. NAV erodes to Rp 30-35T. Stock collapses to Rp 800-1,200. Avoid.”

Risk: Real tail-risk if macro deteriorates.

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Rekomendasi Finalh2

For Current Holders:h3

• REDUCE 30-50% to lock in capital
• Keep remainder only if high risk tolerance
• Set sell stop at Rp 1,200 (if thesis breaks)
• Monitor quarterly results for stabilization signs
• Review dividend policy going forward

For New Investors:h3

• AVOID at current Rp 1,885
• Wait for stabilization signals:
  • 3 consecutive quarters of profit
  • NAV stabilization/growth
  • Dividend clearly sustainable
  • MDKA online proof-of-concept
• Then reassess entry around Rp 1,200-1,400 (if distress deepens) or Rp 2,000+ (if stabilizes)

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Kesimpulan: Murah Bukan Berarti Menarikh2

SRTG memang trading dengan harga murah - 48% diskon dari NAV, 0.52x book value. Tapi “cheap” bukanlah “good investment”. Saham ini murah KARENA:

✅ Portfolio companies sedang struggle (commodity down)
✅ Dividend unsustainable (paying from capital)
✅ Earnings negative (driven by markdowns)
✅ Technical chart broken (no reversal yet)
✅ NAV itself at risk (bisa turun lebih lanjut)

Ini bukan value trap turning bargain - ini adalah distressed PE holder waiting for commodity recovery yang TIMING-nya UNCERTAIN.

Better opportunities exist untuk investor mencari return 2026. Tunggu sampai SRTG menunjukkan tanda stabilisasi sebelum consider. Patient capital mungkin akan dihargai, tetapi risiko jangka pendek 1-2 tahun sangat material.

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DISCLAIMER:

SRTG adalah high-risk holding company dengan profitabilitas dependent on commodity prices dan portfolio company performance. Bukan cocok untuk semua investor. Losses sedang berlangsung, dividend unsustainable, dan technical chart broken. Potential untuk recovery dalam 3-5 tahun jika commodity cycle turns, tetapi timing UNCERTAIN dan risks material. Do extensive due diligence, set strict stop-losses, dan consider alternatives sebelum committing capital.

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Terima kasih telah membaca analisis SRTG. Private equity investing requires patience AND discipline - SRTG tests both right now. Better opportunities likely exist elsewhere dalam market.