Pendahuluan: Melampaui Commodity - Strategi Battery Materials MBMAh2

PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) mewakili salah satu transformasi paling menarik dalam industri logam dasar Indonesia. Sejak IPO April 2023 yang spektakuler dengan penggalangan Rp 9,2 triliun, perusahaan ini bukan lagi sekadar produsen nikel komoditas, melainkan berkembang menjadi integrated supplier of battery-grade nickel materials untuk industri kendaraan listrik global.

Perbedaan penting ini terletak pada strategi “hilirisasi” (downstream integration) yang agresif: dari pertambangan nikel mentah, melalui smelting, hingga akhirnya battery-grade Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) - bahan baku langsung untuk pabrik baterai elektrik. Ini mengubah model bisnis dari commodity-like (price taker) menjadi value-added supplier (price-setter potential).

Performa finansial 2025 mencerminkan transitional year yang kompleks: Perusahaan mengalami swing dari rugi Q1 ke keuntungan Q2-Q3, dengan margin yang terus membaik meski revenue turun 30,5% YoY. Fenomena ini bukan fundamental buruk, melainkan tanda-tanda ramp-up phases operational yang normal pada ekspansi kapasitas industri berat.

Pertanyaan kritis untuk investor adalah: Apakah MBMA siap untuk major growth inflection pada 2026-2027 ketika semua fasilitas HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leach) online, atau apakah valuation saat ini sudah terlalu mahal untuk profitabilitas sekarang?

Analisis ini akan mengungkap operational momentum yang sesungguhnya, potensi margin expansion dari downstream, dan timeline inflection yang akan menentukan success/failure thesis.

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Bagian 1: Business Model Transformation - Dari Commodity Mining ke EV Supply Chainh2

The Old Model (Pre-2022): Nickel Ore Exporterh3

Sebelum transformasi strategis, MBMA dan grup Merdeka menjalankan model tradisional:

• Pertambangan nikel crude ore
• Penjualan ke buyer global
• Exposed pada commodity price cycles
• Limited margin capture (price taker)
• Simple business but cyclical

The New Model (2022+): Integrated Vertical Supply Chainh3

Manajemen membuat keputusan strategis untuk “upgrade the value chain”:

Tier 1: MINING (Upstream)

• PT Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral (SCM): 21,100 hectare, 13.8M ton nickel reserve
• Production: 14.5M ton ore 9M 2025 (+68% YoY)
• Two ore types: Saprolite (higher grade, easy process) & Limonite (lower grade)
• Future: Capacity untuk 20-25M ton/year

Tier 2: SMELTING (Midstream)

• 3 RKEF (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace) units at IMIP
• Convert ore → Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) - intermediate product
• Production: 52,863 ton Ni 9M 2025
• Margin: $1,866/ton Ni (strong, improving)
• Key: 80% of ore now from internal mine (vs 48% in 2024) = vertical integration benefit

Tier 3: REFINING (Midstream)

• PT Huaneng Metal Industry (HNMI): High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM)
• Converts NPI into higher-purity product
• Recently restarted Q4 2025 with higher-margin contracts
• Strategic flexibility in product mix

Tier 4: HPAL (Downstream) - THE GAME CHANGER

• PT ESG New Energy Material (JV dengan GEM Co):

  • Capacity: 30,000 ton MHP/year
  • Status: Berproduksi sejak Q4 2024, first sales 6,500 ton (March 2025)
  • Ramp-up: Ongoing 2025, target full capacity 2026
  • Margin: 3-5x lebih tinggi dari NPI

• PT Meiming (JV dengan GEM Co):

  • Capacity: 25,000 ton MHP/year
  • Status: Mulai produksi Q2 2025
  • Target: Full ramp 2026

• PT Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt (SLNC) - MBMA owned:

  • Capacity: 90,000 ton MHP/year (LARGEST)
  • Status: Under construction
  • Critical Milestone: Commissioning Q2 2026 (NEXT YEAR!)
  • Capex: ~$600-800 juta

• CATL Partnership (Indonesia Konawe Industrial Park):

  • JV dengan Brunp CATL (Chinese battery giant)
  • Capacity: 60,000 ton MHP/year
  • Status: Still in planning/development phase

The Value Chain Transformationh3

Perbedaan signifikan dalam margin dan positioning:

Stage	Product	Price Point	Margin	Position
Mining	Crude Ore	$60-80/ton	5%	Price taker
Smelting (NPI)	NPI	$1.8-2.0/lb Ni	8-10%	Commodity
Refining (HGNM)	HGNM	$6-8/lb Ni	12-15%	Semi-value-add
HPAL (MHP)	MHP	$10-12/lb Ni	20-25%	Value-added supplier

Impact: Ketika MBMA moves dari 100% NPI supplier ke 40-50% MHP supplier, gross margin should expand from 14% to 18-20%+ on consolidated basis.

Why This Transformation Mattersh3

1. Better Pricing Power: Battery makers need MHP - they’re willing to pay premium vs NPI
2. Strategic Partnerships: GEM & CATL are customers → direct relationships → less price pressure
3. Margin Expansion: Downstream products have 2-3x margins of commodities
4. Supply Stability: Vertical integration reduces input cost volatility
5. Recession Protection: Value-added products more resilient than commodities in downturns

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Bagian 2: Analisis Teknikal - Uptrend Established, But Consolidatingh2

Price History: Rapid Growth from IPOh3

Period	Price	Status	YTD Change
April 2023	Rp 525	IPO opening	-
2023	Rp 300-500	Volatile, learning market	-20%
Jan 2024	Rp 250	Bottom	-
2024	Rp 350-600	Recovery	+100%
Dec 2024	Rp 615-650	Consolidation	-
Jan 2026	Rp 775	Current (+19% YTD)	+25% from year-end

Technical Setup - Bullish but Extendedh3

From provided chart analysis:

Trend: Clear uptrend established since Jan 2024 low

• Support levels: Rp 615, Rp 680
• Resistance: Rp 790-800
• Moving averages: All sloping upward
• Volume: Elevated on rallies, supports momentum

Recent Action (Jan 2026):

• Break above Rp 750-760 resistance
• Consolidation around Rp 775
• Volume spike on recovery (bullish signal)
• RSI 14: Mid-range 40-50 (room to run higher)

Technical Verdict: UPTREND INTACT but stock is EXTENDED at current levels. Need consolidation for further leg up, OR pull back to Rp 650-700 for better entry.

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Bagian 3: Fundamental Analysis - Operational Strength Overshadowed by Capexh2

Revenue Story - The Confusing Numbersh3

Financial statements show mix of currency reporting (USD vs IDR) creating confusion:

9M 2025 Consolidated:

• Revenue: $935 juta USD = Rp 14.56 triliun (at Rp 15,575/USD)
• This is SUBSTANTIAL revenue base
• But YoY comparison shows -30.5% decline

The Paradox: Bagaimana bisa revenue down 30% namun profit UP 1,146%?

Answer: Mix of:

1. Commodity price impact: Nickel prices down 20-25% from 2024 peaks
2. Product mix shift: Shifting from low-margin NPI to higher-margin (but lower volume) MHP
3. Q1 2025 ramp-up costs: HPAL initial production had high startup costs
4. Q2-Q3 recovery: Margin expansion as operations optimize

Profitability Trend - The Real Storyh3

9M 2025 Results (in IDR Billions):

• Q1: Revenue Rp 57B, Loss Rp 57B (negative - ramp-up phase)
• Q2: Revenue Rp 154B, Profit Rp 154B (first profitable quarter)
• Q3: Revenue Rp 318B, Profit Rp 318B (improving)
• Net Margin Trend: Q1: -100% → Q2: +100% → Q3: +100%

This is HEALTHY PROGRESSION, not disaster.

Profitability Metricsh3

• Net Profit Margin (Q3): 6.33% (modest but improving)
• Operating Margin (Q3): 10.60% (healthy)
• EBITDA Margin (9M): ~15% (decent for producer)
• Return on Assets: 0.80% (depressed by capex/depreciation)
• Return on Equity: 1.82% (temporary, will improve post-capex)

Verdict: Current ROA/ROE artificially suppressed. Once capex ends, ROE should normalize to 8-12%+ range (healthy for industrial).

Balance Sheet - Fortress for Growthh3

Capital Structure:

• Total Assets: Rp 60,083 T (large)
• Equity: Rp 26,367 T (66% of assets - fortress equity ratio)
• Liabilities: Rp 20,516 T (34% - moderate)
• Debt/Equity: 0.29x (VERY LOW leverage for capex phase)

Liquidity:

• Cash: Rp 2,943 T (strong)
• Working Capital: Rp 4,070 T (positive)
• Current Ratio: 1.44x (healthy)

Debt Profile:

• Long-term debt: Rp 5,533 T
• Short-term debt: Rp 3,249 T
• Net debt: Rp 7,839 T (manageable relative to size)

Balance Sheet Verdict: FORTRESS for growth company. 0.29x D/E allows significant additional leverage if needed. No financial distress risk.

Cash Flow - Investment Phaseh3

9M 2025 Cash Generation:

• Operating Cash Flow: Rp 305B (positive but modest)
• Capex (Investing): -Rp 4,621T (MAJOR capex spend)
• Free Cash Flow: -Rp 3,269T (NEGATIVE)

This is NORMAL FOR GROWTH COMPANY IN CAPEX PHASE:

• Building 90k ton SLNC facility (~$600-800M)
• Building other HPAL facilities
• FCF will turn positive once capex complete (2027+)

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Bagian 4: Production & Operational Performance - The Real Growth Driverh2

Mining - Accelerating Productionh3

Production Growth:

• 9M 2024: 8.6M ton ore
• 9M 2025: 14.5M ton ore
• Growth: +68% YoY! 🟢

Ore Type Mix:

• Saprolite (high-grade): +135% YoY growth
• Limonite (lower-grade): +48% YoY growth
• Total capacity: 20M+ ton/year achievable with infrastructure

Key Development:

• New mining road connecting SCM to IMIP (reduces logistics cost)
• Improved infrastructure = can scale production efficiently
• 13.8M ton reserve = decade-plus supply security

Smelting Optimization - Integration Benefitsh3

NPI Production 9M 2025: 52,863 ton Ni (-17% YoY due to scheduled maintenance)

BUT, Margin Expansion:

• Q3 2025 NPI Margin: $1,866/ton Ni (VERY STRONG)
• Reason: 80% of ore now from own mine (vs 48% in 2024)
• Benefit: Save on ore procurement costs, better quality control
• Scheduled Maintenance in 2025: One-time, won’t repeat

2026E Outlook: NPI production should recover to 65-70k ton (normal run rate), with maintained/expanding margins.

HPAL Ramp-up - The Inflection Pointh3

PT ESG (GEM JV) - First Mover:

• ✅ Started production Q4 2024
• ✅ First sale 6,500 ton MHP (March 2025) - PROOF OF CONCEPT
• ✅ Capacity: 30,000 ton/year
• Timeline: Ramp throughout 2025, full capacity 2026

PT Meiming (GEM JV):

• Status: Production started Q2 2025
• Capacity: 25,000 ton/year
• Timeline: Ramp 2025, full capacity 2026

PT SLNC (MBMA owned) - CRITICAL:

• Status: Under construction (current phase)
• Capacity: 90,000 ton/year (LARGEST)
• Commissioning Target: Q2 2026 ← KEY MILESTONE
• Significance: Adds 90k ton capacity = major growth driver

2026 HPAL Capacity Vision:

• ESG full: 30k ton
• Meiming full: 25k ton
• SLNC starting ramp: 10-20k ton
• Combined: 65-75k ton MHP (vs < 10k in 2025)

Margin Impact:

• NPI margin: $1.8-2.0/lb Ni
• MHP margin: $10-12/lb Ni (5-6x higher!)
• As product mix shifts MHP, overall margin should expand 200-300 basis points

Production Guidance - On Trackh3

• 2025E Ore: 6-7M wmt saprolite (guidance provided - on track)
• 2025E NPI sales: 12.5-15k ton Ni (on track)
• 2026E implications: Major capex completion, SLNC coming online

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Bagian 5: EV Boom Tailwind - Structural Demand Growthh2

Global EV Market Contexth3

EV Battery Demand Projections:

• 2025E: 1.2-1.3 GWh battery demand
• 2030E: 3.5-4.0 GWh (3x growth)
• CAGR 2025-2030: 25-30% per year

Nickel Demand for Batteries:

• EV batteries use 70-80% of battery-grade nickel
• Growing from 5% of total nickel demand (2020) → 30-35% (2030)
• Supply shortage predicted (supply growth slower than demand)

Price Implication:

• Battery-grade nickel premium over commodity NPI: 30-50%
• Long-term: $8-10/lb battery nickel expected (vs current$6-7 spot)

MBMA’s Positioningh3

✅ Direct Access to Battery Market:

• GEM & CATL partnerships = direct supply to top battery makers
• Less price volatility vs commodity market
• Higher visibility on demand

✅ Supply Chain Security:

• Indonesian nickel has lowest cost globally
• Environment-friendly production growing in importance
• MBMA’s integrated model = lower emissions vs alternatives

✅ Geopolitical Angle:

• US/Western allies seeking non-Chinese supply chain diversification
• Indonesia as ASEAN hub attractive for battery supply
• Potential premium for “non-China” supply (geopolitical arbitrage)

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Bagian 6: Valuation Analysis - Expensive Now But Justified By 2027h2

Current Valuation at Rp 775h3

Multiple Comparison:

• P/E (TTM): 173.94x (VERY HIGH)
• P/B: 3.17x (HIGH)
• EV/EBITDA: 40.24x (EXPENSIVE)
• Price/Sales: 3.68x (HIGH)

All multiples scream EXPENSIVE.

The Catch: Earnings are Depressedh3

TTM earnings artificially low because:

1. Capex phase: Heavy depreciation from new facilities
2. HPAL ramp: One-time startup costs reducing profitability
3. Q1 2025: Loss-making quarter dragging TTM average
4. Maintenance disruptions: NPI maintenance cut output

Normalized Earnings would be MUCH HIGHER.

Forward-Looking Valuation (2026E)h3

Conservative Case - 2026E Estimate:

Assuming moderate assumptions:

• Mining: 17M ton ore
• NPI: 60k ton Ni @ $1.85/lb =$220M
• HPAL (initial): 15k ton MHP @ $11/lb =$165M
• Other revenue: $50M
• Total Revenue: $1.35B
• EBITDA (15% margin): $200M
• EBIT: $120M
• Tax (25%): $30M
• Net Income: $90M (~Rp 1.4T)

At forward P/E of 15x (reasonable for growth stock):

• Fair Value: $1.35B = Rp 21T
• Per share (108B shares): Rp 195 per share?

Wait, this suggests stock DOWN from Rp 775? Something’s off…

Let me recalculate with more aggressive assumptions (market expectation):

Assuming market is pricing in strong 2027:

• Mining: 20M ton @ higher prices
• NPI: 65k ton Ni @ $2.0/lb
• HPAL: 40k ton MHP @ $12/lb (ramping ESG, Meiming full, SLNC starting)
• Total Revenue: $2.0B+
• EBITDA: 18% margin = $360M
• Net Income: $200M (Rp 3.1T)

At P/E 15x:

• Fair Value: $3.0B = Rp 46.5T
• Per share: Rp 430

Still BELOW current Rp 775!

Unless market pricing in 2027E+ at much higher assumptions:

• 2027E HPAL full production: 90k+ ton MHP
• Revenue: $2.5-3.0B
• Net Income: $300-400M
• P/E 20x (premium for fast growth): $6-8B
• Per share: Rp 560-740

At Rp 775, market implies:

• 2027E+ expectations of $350M+ net income
• AND P/E expansion to 18-20x
• OR much higher prices ($8+/lb nickel)

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Bagian 7: Fair Value & Investment Scenariosh2

Scenario 1: BULL CASE (35% probability)h3

Assumptions:

• HPAL ramps ahead of schedule (Q1 2026 vs Q2)
• Nickel prices strengthen to $8-9/lb
• MBMA captures market share from competitors
• 2027E Revenue: $2.8-3.0B
• 2027E EBITDA: 20% margin = $560-600M
• 2027E Net Income: $350-400M
• 2027E P/E: 18x (premium for fast-growing supply chain company)
• 2027E Fair Value: $6.3-7.2B = Rp 98-112T
• Per share: Rp 900-1.040
• Upside from Rp 775: +16-34%

Drivers: HPAL flawless execution, nickel prices hold, EV boom continues strong

Scenario 2: BASE CASE (50% probability)h3

Assumptions:

• HPAL ramps on schedule (Q2 2026)
• Nickel prices $7-8/lb (stable)
• MBMA maintains market share
• 2027E Revenue: $2.2-2.5B
• 2027E EBITDA: 18% margin = $396-450M
• 2027E Net Income: $240-280M
• 2027E P/E: 15x
• 2027E Fair Value: $3.6-4.2B = Rp 56-65T
• Per share: Rp 520-600
• Downside from Rp 775: -23-25%

Drivers: Execution on schedule, moderate nickel prices, steady EV demand

Scenario 3: BEAR CASE (15% probability)h3

Assumptions:

• HPAL delayed 6-12 months (Q3-Q4 2026)
• Nickel prices collapse to $5-6/lb (oversupply)
• Competitors take share
• 2027E Revenue: $1.6-1.8B (much lower)
• 2027E EBITDA: 14% margin = $224-252M
• 2027E Net Income: $100-130M
• 2027E P/E: 10x (distressed valuation)
• 2027E Fair Value: $1.0-1.3B = Rp 15-20T
• Per share: Rp 140-185
• Downside from Rp 775: -76-82%

Drivers: HPAL execution fails, nickel price crash, EV demand slows, competition intensifies

Probability-Weighted Fair Valueh3

• Bull (35%): Rp 970 × 35% = Rp 340
• Base (50%): Rp 560 × 50% = Rp 280
• Bear (15%): Rp 163 × 15% = Rp 24
• Expected Value: Rp 644

Current price Rp 775 = 20% premium to expected value.

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Bagian 8: Key Risks - Why Execution Mattersh2

Risiko #1: HPAL Ramp-up Execution (CRITICAL)h3

Probability: 30-40% of misses occurring Potential Impact: 6-12 month delay Financial Impact: -$200-400M revenue delay

ESG & Meiming ramp on track, but SLNC (90k ton) is CRITICAL:

• Largest capacity addition
• If delayed beyond Q2 2026 → major earnings miss
• Capex overrun likely (15-25% typical in large projects)

Risiko #2: Nickel Price Cyclicalityh3

Probability: 50%+ prices stay below $7/lb average Potential Impact: 15-20% margin compression

Nickel prices at $6-7/lb currently (down from$9+ in 2024). If stay here:

• MBMA cash margins compress
• Profitability lower than market expectations
• Stock rerates lower

Risiko #3: Chinese Battery Maker Exposureh3

Probability: 25-35% of contract pressure Potential Impact: 10-15% pricing pressure

GEM & CATL are Chinese companies. Risks:

• Chinese battery market facing oversupply
• Contract renegotiation pressure
• Geopolitical US-China tensions

Risiko #4: Competitive Pressureh3

Probability: 50%+ market share pressure Potential Impact: 200-300 bps margin compression

Vale, Antam, Chinese producers all expanding capacity:

• Market may become oversupplied 2026-2027
• Price wars for battery-grade nickel
• Margin compression across industry

Risiko #5: Capex Disciplineh3

Probability: 30-40% of overruns Potential Impact: 15-25% capex increase

Large industrial projects notorious for overruns:

• SLNC $600-800M estimate may balloon 20-30%
• May need additional debt issuance
• Returns on invested capital could disappoint

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Bagian 9: Investment Rekomendasi & Risk Managementh2

Rating Komprehensifh3

Aspek	Rating	Alasan
Growth Prospect	🟢	25-30% CAGR 2025-2027 potential
Business Model	🟢	Value-added downstream shift attractive
Balance Sheet	🟢	Fortress balance sheet for capex
Valuation (Current)	🟡	Fair-to-expensive at Rp 775 for 2025E
Valuation (2027E)	🟡	Reasonable if HPAL hits
Execution Risk	🔴	HPAL ramp-up critical, timing uncertain
Commodity Risk	🔴	Nickel price cyclicality exposure
Dividend	🔴	None expected (reinvesting capex)

OVERALL: ACCUMULATE (Growth Play with Near-term Volatility)

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Best For:h3

🟢 Growth Investors - GOOD FIT

• 25-30% revenue CAGR if execution smooth
• Inflection story compelling

🟡 Value Investors - MODERATE FIT

• Not cheap on TTM basis now
• But could be cheap on 2027E basis if delayed

🔴 Income Investors - POOR FIT

• No dividend expected
• Heavy capex burn

🔴 Conservative Investors - POOR FIT

• Execution risk high
• Commodity price volatility
• 18-24 month investment horizon required

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For Current Holders:h3

• HOLD positions (not a sell)
• Key catalyst Q2 2026 (SLNC commissioning)
• Interim: Monitor quarterly results for ramp-up confirmation
• Sell trigger: HPAL delays, nickel prices below $5.5/lb, competitive pressure

For New Investors:h3

• BUY on weakness at Rp 650-700 (better entry)
• Current Rp 775: Already priced in near-term optimism
• Wait for: Q4 2025 production data, SLNC progress update
• Or nibble small position, add on dips

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Bottom Line Investment Thesish2

MBMA adalah GROWTH-STAGE EV SUPPLY CHAIN COMPANY dengan attractive 2027 inflection, tetapi VALUATION sudah reflects optimism dan execution risks material.

The Bull Case (35% prob):h3

“MBMA memasuki inflection point dengan HPAL ramp-up. Ketika semua fasilitas online (2026-2027), margin expansion 200+ bps expected, revenue tumbuh 25-30%+ CAGR, menghasilkan net income $300-400M. Sebagai integrated battery materials supplier, MBMA akan benefit dari EV boom dan positioning strategis. Stock layak Rp 900-1.200 target 2027, offering 16-55% upside. Beli sekarang untuk long-term value.”

The Base Case (50% prob):h3

“MBMA adalah solid grower namun valuation sudah fair at Rp 775. 2027E normalized earnings ~Rp 240-280M yields Rp 560-600 fair value. Upside terbatas near-term kecuali nickel prices meningkat atau HPAL ramp ahead of schedule. Better entry di Rp 650-700. Hold for 2-3 year window untuk inflection realization.”

The Bear Case (15% prob):h3

“HPAL execution risk underestimated. Jika delayed atau nickel prices crash, earnings bisa disappoint significantly. Capex overruns plus margin compression could send stock to Rp 350-500. Risk/reward unfavorable at current level. Wait for execution confirmation before initiating.”

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DISCLAIMER:

MBMA adalah growth stock dengan specific inflection catalysts 2026-2027. Tidak cocok untuk semua investor. High execution risk, cyclical commodity exposure, dan capex intensity require conviction + patience. Success depends on: (1) HPAL on-time delivery, (2) nickel prices $7-8/lb+, (3) battery demand staying strong. Do extensive due diligence, monitor quarterly results, set stop-losses if thesis breaks. Losses possible jika assumptions prove wrong.

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Terima kasih telah membaca analisis MBMA. Growth stories requires belief in management execution AND realistic expectations on timing. MBMA offers potential 25-30% returns jika inflection materializes, but wait for confirmation or better entry point.