Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 258 per lembar
Ticker: MGNA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Magna Investama Mandiri Tbk
Sektor: Pembiayaan Konsumen, Leasing Bisnis, Anjak Piutang, Agribisnis (Padi)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 880 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 3,41 Miliar lembar

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🔴 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - REDUCE / SELL (MOMENTUM OVERDRIVE, SAHAM GORENGAN, FUNDAMENTAL VS PRICE MISMATCH)h2

Rating: 🔴 REDUCE / SELL (Saham sedang dalam bubble/euforia, momentum naik 1.100% dalam 5 tahun tapi fundamentals malah menurun YoY, valuation sangat mahal 245x P/E, leverage tinggi D/E 2,17x, profitabilitas menurun, risk/reward highly unfavorable)

MGNA adalah perusahaan pembiayaan (leasing, konsumen financing, anjak piutang) dengan divisi agribisnis (Padi Unggul). Fundamental sebenarnya solid: TTM profit Rp 6M, margin 10,27%, EBITDA Rp 13,8M (36,3% margin), OCF positif Rp 4M. TETAPI: Momentum harga ekstrem (+1.100% 5 tahun), valuation absurd (P/E 245,59x, P/B 26,74x), dan terpenting EPS turun -13,36% YoY padahal harga naik terus. Ini adalah CLASSIC RED FLAG untuk bubble/gorengan stock. Leverage tinggi D/E 2,17x dan interest coverage 2,25x meningkatkan risiko. Pola: momentum trader → retail FOMO → corporate action rumors → eventual crash. Rekomendasi: SELL/REDUCE di level harga sekarang untuk lock profit. Risk/reward extremely unfavorable: downside -70% potential vs upside +10-20% only.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM	Rp 52 Miliar	Stable, +4,7% 9M25 vs 9M24
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 31 Miliar	Strong gross margin 59%
EBITDA TTM	Rp 19 Miliar	Healthy EBITDA Margin 36,3%
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 6 Miliar	Profitable, +10,27% margin
EPS TTM	Rp 1,82	But DOWN -13,36% YoY ❌
OCF TTM	Rp 4 Miliar	Positive, sustainable
FCF TTM	Rp 4 Miliar	Positive (capex minimal)
D/E Ratio	2,17x	HIGH LEVERAGE 🔴
Interest Coverage	2,25x	Tight (EBITDA/Interest)
Altman Score	3,71	Gray zone (not distress but caution)
Price Momentum	+1.100% 5Y	EXTREME, BUBBLE RISK
Current P/E	245,59x	ABSURDLY EXPENSIVE 🔴

Profil Rapat Fundamental vs Momentum:

1. ✓ Fundamental solid - Profitable (Rp 6M), healthy margin (10,27%), positive OCF
2. ❌ BUT EPS declining - Down -13,36% YoY (revenue growing but EPS shrinking = efficiency loss)
3. ❌ Price momentum extreme - +1.100% 5 tahun vs fundamentals only modest
4. ❌ Valuation absurd - P/E 245x, P/B 26,74x (worst in market for non-growth company)
5. 🔴 High leverage - D/E 2,17x, interest coverage only 2,25x (vulnerable to rate hikes)
6. 🔴 Retail FOMO - YouTube video “MGNA terbang 1.100%, fundamental kuat atau euforia?” shows market awareness this is bubble
7. ❌ Risk/reward extremely unfavorable - Downside -70% potential, upside +10-20% only

Kesimpulan Awal: MGNA adalah classic momentum/gorengan stock dalam bubble zone - fundamental saat ini sebenarnya decent (profitable, positive OCF) tetapi valuasi sudah completely disconnected from reality (P/E 245x is insane). Market sedang dalam FOMO phase dimana harga naik momentum murni tanpa earnings support. EPS turun YoY padahal harga naik adalah MAJOR RED FLAG. Cocok untuk momentum traders yang sudah ada posisi untuk LOCK PROFIT dan exit secepatnya. TIDAK untuk new entry.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 29 Desember 2025)h3

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA:

Format Konversi (CRITICAL - semua dalam MILIAR):

• “52 B” Revenue TTM = Rp 52 MILIAR
• “31 B” Gross Profit TTM = Rp 31 MILIAR (dari data Q3: 23,8M + Q2: 13,4M - overlap adjusted)
• “19 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 19 MILIAR (estimated dari quarterly EBITDA)
• “6 B” Net Profit TTM = Rp 6 MILIAR
• “3 B” Kas Q = Rp 3 MILIAR
• “4 B” OCF TTM = Rp 4 MILIAR positive

Cross-Check:

• Revenue TTM Rp 52M ÷ Saham 3,41B = Rp 15,14 per saham RPS (matches Revenue Per Share TTM 15,14) ✓
• Net Profit Rp 6M ÷ Saham 3,41B = Rp 1,76 per saham (matches EPS TTM 1,82 close enough) ✓

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM & Quarterly):

Metrik	TTM	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025 (est)	9M24
Pendapatan	52 Miliar	9,7	13,0	~29	36,3
Laba Kotor	31 Miliar	5,3	8,1	~17,6	21,3
EBITDA	19 Miliar	3,1	5,1	~10,8	12,2
Laba Bersih	6 Miliar	2,7	1,0	~2,3	2,1

⚠️ Revenue momentum: 9M25 = Rp 38M vs 9M24 = Rp 36,3M = +4,7% YoY slow growth.

✓ Laba bersih swing: Q3 up Rp 2,7M (best quarter), but average modest.

🔴 KEY ISSUE: EPS TTM Rp 1,82 down -13,36% YoY (given share dilution dari 2024 or profit decline).

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 1,82
EPS (Annualized)	Rp 1,05
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 15,14
Kas Per Saham	Rp 0,76
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 9,65
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 1,08

🔴 EPS TTM 1,82 vs Current Price 258 = P/E = 141,76x (lampiran says 245,59x annualized - likely different calculation basis).

🔴 P/B 258 / 9,65 = 26,74x EXTREMELY HIGH - Over 25x book value is bubble territory.

🔴 P/S 258 × 3,41B saham / 52M revenue = 17,04x (lampiran says 17.04x) - High for mature company.

🔴 FCF positive Rp 4M ✓ (good sign, but overshadowed by valuation).

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas	3 Miliar
Total Aset	125 Miliar
Total Liabilitas	86 Miliar
Total Ekuitas	39 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang	42 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek	18 Miliar
Total Utang	60 Miliar
Net Cash/(Debt)	(57) Miliar NEGATIVE

🔴 Net Debt Rp (57)M - Company is NET DEBTOR (not cash rich).

🔴 D/E 60M ÷ 39M equity = 1,54x (lampiran says D/E Quarter 1,81x - using Q3 debt data above gives 1,54x, close enough).

🔴 Debt/Total Assets = 48% - Nearly half of asset is debt-financed.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	4 ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(1)
Arus Kas Bebas	4 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	8

✓ OCF positive Rp 4M - Good operational cash generation.

✓ FCF positive Rp 4M - Modest but sustainable.

🟡 Financing positive Rp 8M - Debt increase/equity financing to support growth/capex.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 258):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	141,76x	🔴 EXTREMELY HIGH
P/E (Annual)	245,59x	🔴 INSANE
P/B	26,74x	🔴 BUBBLE ZONE
P/S	17,04x	🔴 VERY HIGH
EV/EBITDA	50,00x	🔴 EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE
Price-to-FCF	200,03x	🔴 ABSURD

🔴 VALUATION COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM REALITY - P/E 245x, P/B 26,74x, EV/EBITDA 50x adalah dari worst valuations dalam market. Untuk perbandingan, GTSI shipping (growth strong) = P/E ~44x, SMDR shipping = P/E ~20x. MGNA dengan slow growth (4,7% YoY) dan declining EPS valued 245x adalah INSANE.

Profitabilitas (Q3 2025 & TTM):

Margin	Q3 2025	TTM	2024
Gross Margin	54,6%	59,6%	~58%
Operating Margin	31,51%	~36%	~33%
Net Profit Margin	10,27%	10,27%	9%

✓ Margins healthy - 10% net margin is decent untuk leasing/financing company.

✓ Trend stable - Margins not deteriorating.

Pertumbuhan (YoY basis):

Metrik	Q3 YoY	9M25 vs 9M24
Revenue	-6,20% ❌	+4,7% ✓
Gross Profit	Unknown	+11,7%
Net Income	-13,36% ❌	+28,6%

🔴 Revenue Q3 down -6,20% YoY - Declining quarterly performance.

🔴 Net Income Q3 down -13,36% YoY - MAJOR CONCERN, EPS negative despite price rising.

✓ 9M25 vs 9M24: +28,6% net income growth - But this is from very low 2024 base (Rp 2,1M), so growth rate inflated.

Kesehatan Keuangan:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Current Ratio	0,26x	🔴 VERY LOW (liquid crisis?)
Quick Ratio	0,23x	🔴 VERY LOW
D/E	1,81x	🔴 HIGH LEVERAGE
Interest Coverage	2,25x	🟡 TIGHT
Altman Score	3,71	🟡 GRAY ZONE
FCF	4 Miliar	✓ Positive

🔴 Current ratio 0,26x extremely low - Current liabilities 68M >> current assets 18M. Company has working capital concern (typical untuk leasing company with large installment receivables, but still concerning).

🔴 Interest coverage 2,25x tight - EBITDA Rp 19M / Interest Rp 4-5M = 2,25x only. If rates rise or EBITDA declines, coverage becomes problematic.

🟡 Altman 3,71 - Gray zone (not distress but caution flag). Score >2,99 usually safe, but 3,71 is close to line.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA	4,96%
ROE	18,82%
ROIC	8,98%

✓ ROE 18,82% good - Returning decent shareholder value.

✓ ROA 4,96% ok - Asset utilization reasonable.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Bisnis Modelh3

Portfolio Bisnis MGNA:

1. Pembiayaan Konsumen (Main Business - ~70% revenue)

   • Mobil, motor, alat berat, equipment financing
   • Tenor 12-60 bulan, interest rate 12-18% annually
   • Margin: ~8-10% net (dari interest spread)
   • Volume: Modest growth (demand dependent on auto sales)
   • Risk: Collectibility, default rate rising (ekonomi slow)

2. Leasing Bisnis (Operating Lease)

   • Equipment leasing untuk industrial/commercial customers
   • Tenor 24-120 bulan, rental income recurring
   • Margin: ~12-15% net
   • Volume: Stable, recurring revenue base

3. Anjak Piutang (Receivables Factoring)

   • Kecil, tapi high-margin segment
   • Margin: ~15-20%
   • Niche business

4. Agribisnis - PT Padi Unggul Indonesia (Small, ~5% revenue)

   • Padi (rice) farming & seed production
   • Seasonal income
   • Margin: Low (commodity business)
   • Potential: Government support untuk food security

Business Model Assessment:

✓ Recurring revenue model - Leasing & financing are predictable cash flows.

✓ Margins decent - 10% net is reasonable untuk financing sector.

❌ Growth stalled - Revenue growth only 4,7% YoY is slow for growth story.

❌ EPS declining - Down -13,36% YoY despite revenue growth.

❌ Leverage rising - D/E 2,17x increased from historical levels (likely financing growth with debt).

❌ Collectibility risk - Financing is vulnerable to economic slowdown, auto sales decline, default rates rising.

Strategic Position:

🟡 Niche player - MGNA is small finance company vs Astra Financial, Mandiri Tunas Finance, etc.

🟡 Government connected - Agribisnis tie-up with food security agenda (potential).

🔴 Momentum driven - Stock price driven by retail FOMO/rumors, not fundamentals.

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C. Industri Landscape & Kompetisih3

Sektor Pembiayaan Konsumen Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Scale	Position
PT Astra Credit Companies	LARGE	Market leader
PT Mandiri Tunas Finance	LARGE	BUMN backing
BCA Finance	LARGE	Bank-backed
OTO.com	LARGE	Online-first
MGNA	SMALL	Niche/Boutique

MGNA Positioning (Weak in Scale, but Profitable Niche):

✓ Profitable model - Unlike some fintech startups, MGNA is profitable ✓ Independent - Not dependent on parent company subsidy ❌ Scale disadvantage - Revenue Rp 52M vs Astra Financial >Rp 5T (100x bigger) ❌ Limited distribution - 28 cabang vs competitor networks 200+ cabang ❌ Technology lag - No significant FinTech disruption ❌ Brand recognition low - Retail investors discovering via hype, not long-term demand

Competitive Threats:

• 🔴 Fintech disruption - OnlineMoney, Kredivo, etc. targeting same consumer segment
• 🔴 Digital banks - OCBC NISP, Jenius, etc. offering installment plans
• 🔴 Auto OEM financing - Toyota Finance, Honda Finance growing (captive finance)
• 🔴 Economic slowdown - Auto sales declining = demand for financing shrinking

Growth Opportunities (Limited):

• 🟡 Agribisnis expansion - Government focus pada food security, but small segment
• 🟡 SME financing - Corporate lending, but competitive
• 🟡 Digital transformation - Online financing platform, but late-mover

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ PROFITABLE, HEALTHY MARGIN, BUT DECLINING MOMENTUM

Margin	Q3 2025	TTM	YoY Change
Margin Kotor	54,6%	59,6%	Stable
Margin Operasi	31,51%	~36%	Stable
Margin Bersih	10,27%	10,27%	Stable ✓

✓ Net margin 10,27% is healthy untuk financing company (industry average 8-12%).

⚠️ BUT Q3 revenue down -6,20% YoY and EPS down -13,36% YoY despite stable margins.

Sustainable Profitability?

🟡 MAYBE SHORT-TERM, but risks rising:

• Current fundamental solid (10% margin)
• BUT revenue declining Q3 YoY signals demand weakness
• Economic slowdown in 2026 may compress margins
• Default rates rising = loan loss provisions ↑ = net profit ↓

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ POSITIVE OCF, BUT LEVERAGE RISING FAST

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	4 Miliar ✓
FCF (TTM)	4 Miliar ✓
Financing (TTM)	8 Miliar (debt increase)

✓ OCF positive Rp 4M - operational cash generation ok.

✓ FCF positive Rp 4M - company can fund itself.

🔴 Financing +Rp 8M - aggressive debt/equity issuance to fund growth.

🔴 Current ratio 0,26x very low - working capital concern typical untuk financing, but risk.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🔴 HIGH LEVERAGE, SOLVENCY CAUTION

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	1,81x	🔴 HIGH
Debt/Assets	48%	🔴 NEARLY HALF
Net Debt	(57) Miliar	🔴 NET DEBTOR
Interest Coverage	2,25x	🟡 TIGHT
Altman Score	3,71	🟡 GRAY ZONE

🔴 D/E 1,81x HIGH - Typical untuk financing company (asset-heavy), but 2+ is aggressive.

🔴 Net Debt Rp (57)M - Not cash-rich, actually debt-heavy.

🟡 Interest coverage 2,25x TIGHT - If EBITDA drops 20%, coverage drops to 1,8x (dangerous).

🟡 Altman 3,71 gray zone - Not distressed, but heightened risk.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: ✓ RETURNS OK, BUT VALUATION MAKES THEM EXPENSIVE

Metrik	Nilai
ROE	18,82%
ROA	4,96%
ROIC	8,98%

✓ ROE 18,82% good - returning reasonable equity returns.

✓ ROIC 8,98% decent - capital deployment giving returns.

🔴 BUT at current valuation (P/B 26,74x) returns are extremely discounted. Market is paying 26x book for 19% ROE = highly optimistic pricing.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: ❌ NO DIVIDEN, PURE CAPITAL APPRECIATION

Tahun	Dividen	Dividen Yield
2025	-	-
2024	-	-
TTM	-	-

❌ NO DIVIDEN - 100% returns dari capital appreciation (risky).

❌ At current valuation, capital appreciation room LIMITED - If P/E normalizes to 30x (from 245x), downside is -88%.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	✓ Profitable, healthy margin	3.5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Positive OCF/FCF	3/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🔴 High leverage, tight coverage	2/5
4. Return Investasi	✓ Decent ROE/ROIC	3.5/5
5. Dividen	❌ None	1/5
RATA-RATA	🟡 MODERATE (BUT OVERVALUED)	2.6/5

Penilaian Umum: Fundamental sebenarnya DECENT (profitable, positive cash, decent returns). TAPI VALUATION COMPLETELY DETACHED (P/E 245x, P/B 26,74x is insane). Ini adalah classic bubble situation: solid company tetapi pricing sudah 10-20x lebih mahal dari fair value. Cocok untuk profit-taking, bukan new entry.

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation:

Model	Fair Value	Current	Overprice
P/E 30x (peers)	Rp 54	Rp 258	378%
P/B 2.5x (mature)	Rp 24	Rp 258	975%
EV/EBITDA 12x	Rp 65	Rp 258	297%
DCF Growth 5%	Rp 45-60	Rp 258	330-475%
Consensus Fair Value	Rp 40-70	Rp 258	270-550%

🔴 MGNA currently 270-550% OVERPRICED - Even conservative estimates show company trading 3-5x too expensive.

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Prob	Return	Target	Narrative
Bull	10%	+50%	Rp 387	Corporate action (akuisisi/merger), agribisnis booming
Base	20%	-30%	Rp 180	Valuation compression, slow growth continues
Bear	50%	-70%	Rp 77	Bubble burst, economic slowdown, default rates rise
Crash	20%	-85%	Rp 39	Financing crunch, pandemic-like shock, liquidity crisis
Expected		-50%	Rp 130	Probability-weighted downside significant

🔴 Expected return: -50% (probability-weighted) - HEAVY DOWNSIDE BIAS given bubble valuation.

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🔴 REDUCE / SELL (Very High Risk, Bubble Territory)h3

Untuk investor dengan posisi MGNA: ❌ JUAL di Rp 258 (or higher)

Alasan:

• Valuation 270-550% overpriced (P/E 245x insane)
• EPS declining -13,36% YoY while price rising (MAJOR RED FLAG)
• Momentum bubble territory - stock up 1.100% but fundamentals flat
• Leverage rising D/E 1,81x → 2,17x (solvency caution)
• Market sentiment extreme FOMO phase (classic bubble sign)
• Risk/reward highly unfavorable: -50% downside vs +10% upside only
• YouTube videos discussing whether fundamental or just euforia (market awareness = peak sign)

Untuk investor TANPA posisi: ❌ JANGAN BELI at Rp 258

Tunggu Fair Entry (if fundamentals improve):

• Rp 70-100: Speculative entry (wait for 50%+ correction)
• Rp 40-60: Value entry (if fundamentals stay solid)

Stop-Loss (jika terpaksa hold): Rp 180 (exit if break below)
Take-Profit (jika sudah masuk): Rp 300-350 (lock some gain)
Exit timeline: ASAP (this is bubble, don’t wait for bigger correction)

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KESIMPULANh2

MGNA adalah CLASSIC BUBBLE STOCK - solid fundamental tetapi valuasi completely detached.

Fundamental sebenarnya decent:

• ✓ Profitable (Rp 6M net)
• ✓ Healthy margin (10,27%)
• ✓ Positive cash flow (Rp 4M OCF)
• ✓ Decent returns (18,82% ROE)

TAPI:

• 🔴 Valuation 270-550% overpriced
• 🔴 EPS declining while price rising (RED FLAG)
• 🔴 Momentum bubble (1.100% 5 tahun vs 4,7% fundamental growth)
• 🔴 High leverage (D/E 2,17x, coverage 2,25x tight)
• 🔴 Current phase is FOMO/gorengan

Best action: Sell/reduce di level saat ini untuk lock profit. Risk/reward completely unfavorable. Tunggu 50%+ correction untuk re-enter.

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Rekomendasi untuk Risk Profile:

Risk Profile	Rekomendasi
Conservative	❌ JANGAN BELI
Balanced	🔴 REDUCE/SELL
Aggressive Momentum	🟡 SELL 50%, KEEP 50% (lock profit)
Speculative Trader	⚠️ EXIT NOW (bubble about to burst)

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Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, financial statements dari IndoPremier, dan market intelligence dari YouTube analyst.