Tanggal Analisis: 14 November 2025
Data Source: KeyStats Q3 2025, Financial Statements 9M2025
Current Price: Rp 960/saham (volatile range Rp 278-1.250)
Rating: HOLD / SPECULATIVE BUY | Fair Value: Rp 850-1.100 | Target Price: Rp 1.100-1.300 (15-35% upside dengan high risk)

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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA) adalah perusahaan jasa konstruksi yang menangani proyek bangunan komersial dan infrastruktur di Indonesia. Perusahaan menunjukkan fundamental yang menarik dengan balance sheet sangat kuat (cash Rp 728 miliar, net cash Rp 477 miliar, debt minimal), free cash flow excellent (Rp 209 miliar), dan dividend yield attractive (2,23%). Pada 9M2025, NRCA mencatat revenue Rp 2,66 triliun (+4,8% YoY) dan net income Rp 156,3 miliar (+84,5% YoY).

Namun, perusahaan memiliki karakteristik yang perlu diperhatikan: pertumbuhan revenue lambat (+2,46% quarterly YoY), margin tipis untuk sektor konstruksi (net margin 8,4%), volatilitas harga ekstrem (swing 350%+ dalam setahun), dan free float rendah (20,14%) yang menandakan liquidity risk dan potential manipulation. Valuasi PER 16,05x premium terhadap market (8,65x) tidak fully justified oleh growth rate yang rendah.

Key Highlights:

• ✓✓ Cash position exceptional: Rp 728B cash, net cash Rp 477B
• ✓✓ Free cash flow strong: Rp 209B (137% of net income)
• ✓ Balance sheet fortress: DER 0,19x, Altman Z-Score 5,26
• ✓ Dividend attractive: 2,23% yield, 26% payout (sustainable)
• ✓ Profitability decent: ROE 11,3%, ROCE 19,05%
• ⚠️ Revenue growth slow: +2,46% YoY quarterly
• ⚠️ High volatility: Price swing Rp 278-1.250 (350%+)
• ⚠️ Low free float: 20,14% (illiquid)
• ⚠️ Valuation premium: PER 16x vs market 8,65x

Rekomendasi: HOLD at current Rp 960, SPECULATIVE BUY on dips Rp 700-800, TARGET Rp 1.100-1.300 dengan high volatility risk.

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TAHAP 1: BUSINESS PROFILE & VERIFIKASI DATAh2

Company Overviewh3

PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA) didirikan tahun 1975 sebagai kelanjutan dari PT National Roadbuilders, dan mulai beroperasi komersial tahun 1975. Perusahaan adalah anak usaha PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA), konglomerat properti & infrastruktur Indonesia.

Business Structure:

1. Jasa Konstruksi (Main Business - 99%+ revenue)

   • Bangunan komersial: hotel, mall, perkantoran
   • Infrastruktur: jalan, jembatan, kompleks industri
   • Proyek pemerintah & swasta
   • Revenue 9M2025: Rp 2,65 triliun

2. Hotel Operations (Minor - < 1% revenue)

   • PT Sumbawa Raya Cipta Hotel (subsidiary)
   • Revenue 9M2025: ~Rp 4 miliar (minimal contribution)

Recent Major Projects (2025):

• New Plant PT Astra Honda Motor (AHM) Deltamas Cikarang
• Holiday Inn Express Bandung
• Parking Building Universitas Gunadarma Depok
• Infrastructure Subang Smartpolitan
• Residence Mandarin Oriental Pandawa Denpasar
• Industrial building Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
• Hospital projects (Keluarga Sehat Coverall Rembang)

Market Position:

• Kontrak baru 9M2025: Rp 2,57 triliun (down -17,3% YoY)
• Major clients: Ciputra Group (13,8%), SSIA (parent), Musi Mas, Sahid Group, Sinar Mas
• Revenue target 2025: Rp 3,50 triliun (growth konservatif +3,85%)

Financial Verification (9M2025 vs 9M2024)h3

Metrik	9M2025	9M2024	Growth	Source	Status
Revenue	Rp 2.655B	Rp 2.534B	+4,8%	KeyStats/Media	✓ Verified
Gross Profit	Rp 316,5B	Rp 269,4B	+17,5%	Media	✓ Verified
EBITDA	Rp 243,9B	Rp 170B	+43,5%	Media	✓ Verified
Net Income	Rp 156,3B	Rp 84,7B	+84,5%	KeyStats/Media	✓ Verified
EPS	Rp 62,54	Rp 33,88	+84,5%	Media	✓ Verified

Status: ✅ Data terverifikasi accurate dari multiple sources

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TAHAP 2: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSISh2

Revenue & Earnings Growthh3

9M2025 Performance:

• Revenue: Rp 2.655B (+4,8% YoY)
• Net Income: Rp 156,3B (+84,5% YoY) - strong recovery
• EPS: Rp 62,54 (+84,5%)

Quarterly Breakdown:

• Q1 2025: Revenue Rp 889,5B
• Q2 2025: Revenue Rp 814,9B (implied from H1 Rp 1.704B)
• Q3 2025: Revenue Rp 950,7B (implied)
• Growth trend: Accelerating Q3 after slow H1

Kontrak Baru (New Order Book):

• 9M2025: Rp 2,57 triliun (down -17,3% YoY from Rp 3,11T)
• H1 2025: Rp 1,42 triliun (down -37,2% YoY)
• Concern: New contracts declining while revenue growing = working through backlog

Profitability Analysish3

Margin Structure (9M2025):

Gross Profit Margin:      11,9%  (typical konstruksi 10-15%)
EBITDA Margin:            9,2%   (low for construction)
Operating Margin:         8,9%   (implied)
Net Profit Margin:        5,9%   (slim but acceptable)

Assessment: Margins tipis normal untuk konstruksi Indonesia. Net margin 5,9% (vs 8,4% quarterly) acceptable mengingat sifat low-margin high-volume business.

Return Metrics (TTM):

• ROE: 11,30% (decent untuk construction)
• ROA: 5,54% (reasonable untuk asset-heavy)
• ROCE: 19,05% (good, above cost of capital)
• ROIC: 17,35% (good)

Interpretation: Returns decent, creating value untuk shareholders meskipun margins slim.

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TAHAP 3: BALANCE SHEET & CASH FLOW - FORTRESS POSITIONh2

Balance Sheet Strength (Q3 2025)h3

Asset Structure:

Total Assets:            Rp 2.767B
- Cash:                  Rp 728B (26% of assets!)
- Receivables:           Moderate
- Inventory:             Construction WIP

Total Equity:            Rp 1.356B
Total Liabilities:       Rp 1.411B

Debt Position - MINIMAL:

Long-term Debt:         Rp 9B (essentially zero!)
Short-term Debt:        Rp 243B
Total Debt:             Rp 251B
vs. Cash Rp 728B
NET CASH POSITION:      Rp 477B  ✓✓ EXCEPTIONAL

Leverage Metrics:

• Debt-to-Equity: 0,19x (very low!)
• Interest Coverage: 15,70x (can easily service debt)
• Current Ratio: 1,88x (healthy)
• Altman Z-Score: 5,26 (safe zone >3)

Verdict: Balance sheet adalah FORTRESS. Financial distress risk = MINIMAL.

Cash Flow Analysis (TTM)h3

Operating Cash Flow: Rp 217 Miliar

vs. Net Income Rp 153B:
OCF/NI Ratio = 142%  ✓✓ EXCELLENT
→ Earnings converting to cash efficiently
→ Quality of earnings HIGH

Free Cash Flow: Rp 209 Miliar

Operating Cash Flow:    Rp 217B
Capital Expenditure:    -Rp 8B (minimal capex)
FREE CASH FLOW:         Rp 209B ✓✓ STRONG

FCF/Net Income:         137%
→ Generating more cash than accounting profit!

Implication: Cash flow quality exceptional. Company bisa fund dividend + growth without external financing.

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TAHAP 4: DIVIDEND & SHAREHOLDER RETURNSh2

Current Dividendh3

Dividend Per Share:     Rp 22,00 (2024-2025)
EPS TTM:               Rp 61,38
Payout Ratio:          35,8% (conservative)
Dividend Yield:        2,23% (at Rp 960 price)

Dividend History (Impressive):

• 2024: Rp 22,00
• 2023: Rp 29,00 (higher!)
• 2022: Rp 42,00 (peak)
• 2021: Rp 15,00
• 2020: Rp 15,00
• 2019: Rp 25,00

Sustainability Check:

Free Cash Flow:        Rp 209B
Dividend Payment:      Rp 22 × 2,5B shares = Rp 55B
FCF Coverage:          3,8x (very safe)

Payout Ratio:          35,8% (conservative)
→ Room untuk increase dividend significantly

Assessment: Dividend SUSTAINABLE dengan room untuk growth. Conservative payout policy provides buffer untuk cyclical construction business.

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TAHAP 5: VALUASI ANALYSISh2

Current Valuation Metricsh3

Metrik	NRCA	Market Avg	Status
PER TTM	16,05x	8,65x	+85% PREMIUM
PBV	1,81x	1,5-2,0x	Fair
P/S	0,70x	2-3x	CHEAP!
EV/EBITDA	9,07x	10-12x	Reasonable
Earnings Yield	6,23%	~11-12%	Lower

Is Premium PER (16,05x) Justified?h3

NO, NOT fully justified because:

Positive factors (partially justifying):

1. ✓ Strong cash position (net cash Rp 477B)
2. ✓ Excellent free cash flow (Rp 209B)
3. ✓ Attractive dividend yield (2,23%)
4. ✓ Fortress balance sheet (minimal debt)
5. ✓ Recent earnings acceleration (+84,5% YoY)

Negative factors (against premium):

1. ✗ Revenue growth SLOW (+2,46% quarterly YoY, +4,8% 9M YoY)
2. ✗ New contracts declining (-17,3% YoY)
3. ✗ Low margins (net 5,9-8,4%)
4. ✗ Cyclical construction business
5. ✗ High volatility risk (price manipulation characteristics)

Verdict: PER 16,05x is EXPENSIVE given +2,46% revenue growth. Premium should be 10-12x max for konstruksi company with slow growth.

Fair Value Calculationh3

Method 1: PER Approach (construction sector 10-12x)

EPS TTM:               Rp 61,38
Fair Value PER:        10-12x (construction industry)
Fair Value:            Rp 614-737

Current Price Rp 960 implies premium unjustified

Method 2: P/S Approach (cheap signal)

Revenue Per Share:     Rp 1.399,43
P/S:                   0,70x (VERY CHEAP!)
Construction avg P/S:  1,0-1,5x
Implied FV:            Rp 1.399 - Rp 2.099

Suggests significant undervaluation on sales basis

Method 3: Dividend Discount Model

Dividend Rp 22, growth 5-10%, discount rate 10%
Fair Value:            Rp 440-880 (conservative)

Method 4: Net Cash Adjusted

Market Cap:            Rp 2.459B
Less: Net Cash         Rp -477B
Enterprise Value:      Rp 1.982B

EV/EBITDA:            1.982 / 244 = 8,1x (reasonable)

Fair Value Rangeh3

Scenario	Price	Basis	Probability
Bear	Rp 600-700	PER 10x, construction slowdown	20%
Base	Rp 850-1.100	PER 12-14x, steady execution	60%
Bull	Rp 1.200-1.500	Strong project wins, momentum	20%

Current Rp 960 = Mid-range (base-to-bull edge)

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TAHAP 6: RISIKO & CATALYSTh2

Key Risks (High Overall)h3

1. Extreme Volatility Risk (CRITICAL - VERY HIGH)

• Price range Rp 278-1.250 = 350%+ swing dalam setahun
• Low free float (20,14%) = illiquid, manipulation-prone
• Suspension history (multiple times by BEI di 2025)
• Insider selling (Komisaris sold all shares Sept 2025)
• Characteristics pump-and-dump pada micro-cap

2. Slow Growth Risk (HIGH)

• Revenue growth +2,46% quarterly = barely above inflation
• New contracts declining (-17,3% YoY)
• Backlog being worked through without replenishment
• Risk: Revenue flatten or decline 2026

3. Construction Cyclicality (MEDIUM)

• Dependent on property & infrastructure cycle
• Government capex fluctuations affect projects
• Competition intensifying (margin pressure)

4. Margin Pressure Risk (MEDIUM)

• Net margin slim 5,9-8,4%
• Material cost inflation can erode profitability
• Fixed price contracts = vulnerable to cost overruns

5. Parent Company Dynamics (LOW-MEDIUM)

• Controlled by SSIA (Surya Semesta group)
• Prajogo Pangestu & Hartono Bersaudara accumulating SSIA shares
• Potential corporate action if parent sold/restructured

Positive Catalystsh3

Near-term (6-12 months):

1. Project completion milestones (AHM, Subang Smartpolitan)
2. New large contract wins (government infrastructure projects)
3. Dividend increase (payout ratio only 35%, room to grow)

Medium-term (12-24 months): 4. Parent company (SSIA) restructuring benefits NRCA 5. Infrastructure boom (if government accelerates capex) 6. Backlog replenishment (kontrak baru improvement)

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TAHAP 7: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: HOLD / SPECULATIVE BUYh3

Investment Thesis: NRCA adalah construction company dengan balance sheet exceptional (cash-rich, minimal debt) dan dividend attractive, TAPI dengan volatility ekstrem, slow growth, dan valuation premium yang tidak fully justified. Suitable hanya untuk investors dengan high risk tolerance yang dapat handle volatility 100%+ swings.

Suitable For:

• ✓ Speculative investors (high risk tolerance)
• ✓ Dividend seekers (2,23% yield, stable)
• ✓ Value investors (on deep dips only, < Rp 800)
• ✓ Traders (momentum plays, high volatility)

NOT Suitable For:

• ❌ Conservative investors (volatility too high)
• ❌ Growth investors (revenue growth slow)
• ❌ Long-term buy-and-hold (execution risk)
• ❌ Risk-averse portfolios

Price Action Planh3

Action	Price Level	Rationale	Confidence
STRONG BUY	Rp 600-750	Deep value territory, 20-30%+ upside	High
BUY	Rp 750-850	Fair value zone, dividend + upside	Medium
HOLD	Rp 850-1.100	Current range, wait for catalysts	Medium
REDUCE 50%	Rp 1.200-1.400	Near bull case, take profits	High
SELL	Rp 1.500+	Overbought, exit completely	High

Stop Loss: Rp 700 (if new contracts continue declining + revenue miss)

Position Sizing & Risk Managementh3

Critical Rules:

• Max position: 2-3% of portfolio (high volatility + illiquid)
• Never use margin (volatility 100%+ can wipe account)
• Set strict stop loss (20-25% maximum loss)
• Take profits incrementally (50% at +30%, remainder at +50%)
• Monitor quarterly: Kontrak baru trends (leading indicator)

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KESIMPULANh2

NRCA adalah cash-rich construction company dengan excellent balance sheet TAPI volatility ekstrem dan slow growth:

Exceptional Strengths:

• ✓✓ Balance sheet fortress (net cash Rp 477B, minimal debt)
• ✓✓ Free cash flow strong (Rp 209B, 137% of net income)
• ✓ Dividend attractive (2,23% yield, sustainable)
• ✓ Altman Z-Score 5,26 (very safe)
• ✓ ROCE 19,05% (above cost of capital)

Critical Weaknesses:

• ⚠️⚠️ Extreme volatility (price swing 350%+)
• ⚠️⚠️ Low free float (20,14% = manipulation risk)
• ⚠️ Slow revenue growth (+2,46% quarterly YoY)
• ⚠️ Declining new contracts (-17,3% YoY)
• ⚠️ Valuation premium (PER 16x vs 8,65x market)

Valuation:

• Current Rp 960 = Fair-to-slightly-expensive
• Fair value: Rp 850-1.100 (base case)
• Target: Rp 1.100-1.300 in 6-12 months (with high volatility)
• Risk-adjusted recommendation: HOLD or WAIT for dips Rp 700-800

Final Word: NRCA adalah SPECULATIVE PLAY, bukan core holding. Balance sheet excellent tapi volatility dan growth concerns membuat ini hanya suitable untuk aggressive investors yang bisa handle 50-100% price swings. Conservative investors should AVOID atau wait for significant dips ke Rp 700 or below.

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Disclaimer: Analisis berdasarkan KeyStats Q3 2025 dan public information November 2025. NRCA memiliki karakteristik high volatility dan low liquidity (free float 20,14%). Stock pernah di-suspend multiple times oleh BEI tahun 2025. Past price swings 350%+ menunjukkan manipulation risk tinggi. Investor harus sangat hati-hati dan gunakan strict risk management. Tidak suitable untuk risk-averse investors.