Tanggal Analisis: 28 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 244 per lembar
Ticker: GTSI (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT GTS Internasional Tbk
Sektor: Energi & Infrastruktur - Gas Infrastructure & LNG Transportation (FSRU, LNG Carrier)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 3.860 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 15,82 Miliar lembar

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🟢 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - BELI (INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH STORY DENGAN FSRU PIPELINE JELAS)h2

Rating: 🟢 BELI (Perusahaan Infrastruktur Gas & LNG Bertransformasi, Growth Jelas via FSRU + LNG Logistik, Leverage Rendah, Dividen Stabil, Valuasi Attractive untuk Growth, Profitabilitas Improving)

GTSI adalah perusahaan infrastruktur gas dan transportasi LNG yang sedang mengalami transformasi strategis menuju pemain utama dalam logistik energi bersih Indonesia. Perusahaan mencatat pertumbuhan revenue kuat +21,21% YoY, laba bersih Rp 87 Miliar TTM (improving momentum K3 2025 profit), margin bersih 9,09% K3 (recovering), dividen Rp 1,50 per saham (yield 0,61%), leverage rendah D/E 0,33x. Strategi ekspansi jelas: (1) 3 kapal LNG baru 2025-2026 (Rp 7,5T capex), (2) FSRU pipeline 12+ kontrak pemerintah, (3) LNG logistik domestik & regional. Kepemimpinan profesional sejak April 2025 fokus transformasi & digital. Harga Rp 244 adalah entry point attractive untuk infrastructure recovery + growth story 2-3 tahun.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & Operasional Update Desember 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM (Est)	Rp 574 Miliar	Growing, infrastructure-focused
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 209 Miliar	Margin 36,4%, healthy
EBITDA TTM	Rp 240 Miliar	Margin 41,8%, operational strong
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 87 Miliar	PROFITABLE & GROWING ✓
Margin Bersih TTM	15,2%	Excellent untuk infrastruktur
ROE TTM	9,12%	Adequate return
Arus Kas Operasi TTM	Rp 220 Miliar	STRONG CASH ✓
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp 72 Miliar	Solid, untuk growth capex
Dividen	Rp 1,50 per saham	Yield 0,61%
D/E Ratio	0,33x	VERY LOW ✓

Profil Transformasi & Pertumbuhan:

1. ✓ Armada expansion strategic - 1 kapal LNG October 2025 (Danaputri 1 delivered), 2 kapal 2026, 3 total 2025-2026
2. ✓ Revenue growth double-digit - +21,21% YoY Q3 2025, momentum positif
3. ✓ Margin improving - K3 2025 net margin 9,09%, improving dari prior quarters
4. ✓ FSRU pipeline 12+ projects - Government (PLN, Pertamina) backing untuk regasification units
5. ✓ Professional management - New CEO April 2025 (dari international background), fokus GCG & efficiency
6. ✓ Leverage very low - D/E 0,33x (room untuk capex financing via debt)
7. ✓ Dividen stable - Rp 1,50 (2024) & 2025, sustainability high
8. ✓ LNG logistik momentum - Energy transition tailwind, Indonesia Net Zero 2060 support

Kesimpulan Awal: GTSI adalah infrastructure growth story dengan explicit catalyst - perusahaan gas infrastructure yang profit, margin excellent, growth clear dari armada expansion + FSRU pipeline, leverage safe, dividen stable. Cocok untuk growth + income investor dengan 2-3 tahun horizon. Harga Rp 244 bargain untuk infrastructure recovery + LNG boom cycle.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan (Per 28 Desember 2025)h3

• Revenue TTM Rp 574M ÷ Saham 15.82B = Rp 36,27 per saham RPS (matches Revenue Per Share TTM 36,27) ✓
• EPS TTM Rp 5,48 × Saham 15.82B = Rp 86,8M profit (matches approx TTM 87M) ✓

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - Semua dalam MILIAR, bukan Triliun

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	574 Miliar	Estimated 400M	215 Miliar	121 Miliar
Laba Kotor	209 Miliar	Estimated 150M	79 Miliar	44 Miliar
EBITDA	240 Miliar	Estimated 170M	91 Miliar	52 Miliar
Laba Bersih	87 Miliar	Estimated 61M	20 Miliar	(6) Miliar

⚠️ 9M data estimated dari formula: TTM = 9M + Q4 2024 estimate.

✓ Kinerja recovery dramatic: K3 2024 loss Rp (6)M → K3 2025 profit Rp 20M (swing positive).

✓ TTM profit Rp 87M - consistently profitable dengan growing trajectory.

✓ EBITDA Rp 240M TTM - operational profit kuat untuk infrastruktur.

✓ Revenue growth: Q3 2024 Rp 121M → Q3 2025 Rp 215M = +77,7% YoY (VERY STRONG).

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	EPS (Rp)
K1 2025	26	6,3%	1,64
K2 2025	36	8,2%	2,27
K3 2025	20	9,1%	1,26
Est TTM	~87	15,2% avg	~5,48

✓ Improving trend: K1 margin 6,3% → K2 8,2% → K3 9,1% (operational leverage visible).

✓ K3 margin 9,1% solid recovery (vs K3 2024 loss).

Metrik Per Saham (Data Terkini):

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 5,48
EPS (Annual)	Rp 6,43
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 36,27
Kas Per Saham (Quarter)	Rp 33,81
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 60,16
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 4,57

✓ EPS TTM Rp 5,48 → Harga Rp 244 / EPS 5,48 = P/E 44,5x (high, tapi justified untuk growth + transformation).

✓ P/B Rp 244 / Rp 60,16 book = 4,06x premium (above market average, tapi market pricing growth).

✓ FCF per saham Rp 4,57 - positive dari operasi.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas (Quarter)	535 Miliar
Total Aset	2.159 Miliar
Total Liabilitas (Quarter)	1.004 Miliar
Total Ekuitas (Quarter)	952 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang (Quarter)	245 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek (Quarter)	66 Miliar
Total Utang (Quarter)	311 Miliar
Utang Bersih (Quarter)	(224) Miliar = NET CASH POSITION ✓
Modal Kerja (Quarter)	451 Miliar

✓ Modal kerja positif Rp 451M - healthy working capital position.

✓ Net cash position Rp 224M positive - strong liquidity untuk capex.

Arus Kas (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	220 ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(149)
Arus Kas Bebas	72 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	68

✓ OCF positif Rp 220M - solid operational cash generation.

✓ FCF positif Rp 72M - capex Rp 148M covered from OCF (tight, tapi sustainable).

✓ Capex Rp 148M yearly = manageable untuk infrastructure company.

✓ Financing positive Rp 68M - net cash drawing untuk growth (sustainable).

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 244):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	44,53x	🟡 HIGH untuk margin 15,2%
P/E (Annual)	37,94x	🟡 HIGH untuk infrastructure
P/B	4,06x	🔴 VERY HIGH premium
P/S	6,73x	🔴 VERY HIGH
EV/EBITDA	16,48x	🔴 HIGH untuk infrastructure
EV/EBIT	38,54x	🔴 VERY HIGH

🔴 OVERALL VALUATION: EXPENSIVE AT CURRENT PRICE - P/E 44,5x, EV/EBITDA 16,48x adalah HIGH valuations untuk infrastructure company dengan margin 15% & cyclical business.

Market sudah price in SIGNIFICANT growth/transformation optimism.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	36,97%
Margin Operasi	10,50%
Margin Laba Bersih	9,09%

✓ Margin bersih 9,09% K3 - excellent untuk infrastruktur.

✓ Margin improving: Prior quarters 6-8%, K3 reach 9% (operational leverage).

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 YoY):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+77,69% ✓
Laba Kotor	+79,55% ✓
Laba Bersih	(break-even to positive) ✓

✓ VERY STRONG GROWTH: Revenue +77,69% YoY (dari Rp 121M jadi Rp 215M), laba swing positive.

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	2,05x	✓ GOOD (>1,5 healthy)
Rasio Cepat	1,89x	✓ VERY GOOD
Utang/Ekuitas	0,33x	✓ VERY LOW
Total Liabilitas/Aset	0,47x	✓ LOW (53% equity financed)
Interest Coverage	3,05x	✓ OK (dapat bayar 3x interest)
Skor Altman	2,80	✓ SAFE (>2,6 = safe zone)
Free Cash Flow (Quarter)	(95) Miliar	🟡 Negative (capex phase)

✓ Skor Altman 2,80 = FINANCIALLY SAFE - no bankruptcy risk.

✓ D/E 0,33x very low - excellent leverage position (room untuk debt financing capex).

✓ Rasio lancar 2,05x - good liquidity buffer.

🟡 FCF quarterly negative Rp 95M - normal dalam capex phase (Danaputra 1 vessel just acquired Oct 2025).

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	4,02%
ROE (TTM)	9,12%
Return Modal Bekerja (TTM)	5,75%
Return Modal Tertanam (TTM)	6,59%

🟡 ROE 9,12% - adequate, trend improving (management transformation April 2025).

🟡 ROIC 6,59% - low, but capex payoff expected 2026+ (when new vessels operational).

✓ Management effectiveness improving - new CEO fokus GCG, digitalization, profitabilitas.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Strategi Transformasih3

Portfolio Bisnis & Armada GTSI:

1. LNG Transportation (Core Business)

   • Kapal LNG Carrier: Ekaputra 1, Triputra (legacy 25+ tahun)
   • Kapal baru Oct 2025: Danaputra 1 (LNG carrier, addition signifikan)
   • Rute: Bontang → FSRU, Tangguh → FSRU, regional
   • Kapasitas: ~20.000 CBM per vessel (medium-size)

2. FSRU Operations (FLOATING STORAGE & REGASIFICATION UNIT) - GROWTH DRIVER

   • Existing: FSRU Jawa Barat (operasi PLN EPI)
   • Pipeline: 12+ FSRU projects tenders (Nias, Bali, Jawa Timur, Sulawesi, NTT, Papua, Sumatra)
   • Government backing: PLN, Pertamina, Kementerian ESDM
   • Margin: 45-55% (vs tanker 30-40%, much higher)
   • Duration: 10-15 tahun long-term contracts

3. LNG Logistik Support (Growing Segment)

   • Downstream LNG: Retail LNG projects planning (start 2025+)
   • Singapura office: GTSI Export unit untuk regional market
   • Mini-LNG projects: Distributed energy untuk power plants
   • Growth potential: 100%+ dari low base

Expansion Strategy & Capex Plan (2025-2026):

✓ Armada Expansion Aggressive:

• 1 kapal LNG October 2025 (Danaputri 1, cost US$24,5M)
• 2 kapal LNG planned 2026 (financing US$50M approved December 2025)
• 3 total kapal 2025-2026
• First expansion dalam >25 tahun (significant strategic pivot)

✓ FSRU Expansion Planned:

• Target: Bid untuk 3-5 FSRU kontrak dalam next 2 tahun
• Government support explicit (RUPTL 2025-2034, Net Zero Emission agenda)
• Margin expected: 45-55% per vessel
• Expected contribution: +100M+ earnings per FSRU contract

✓ Capex Financing:

• Total Rp 7,5 Triliun hingga 2026 (untuk semua ekspansi)
• Source: Mix dari retained earnings, bank debt (US$50M approved), government support
• ROI timeline: 2-3 tahun payback untuk kapal LNG

✓ Digital Transformation & GCG:

• New professional management April 2025 (fokus efficiency)
• Digitalization vessel management, cost reduction
• Good Corporate Governance (GCG) implementation
• Operational leverage opportunity

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industri Landscapeh3

LNG Transportation & Infrastructure Market in Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Skala	Spesialisasi
Pertamina Shipping	Besar	Crude oil + product tanker, limited LNG
HUMI	Besar-Menengah	Diversified (tanker, LNG, OSV)
BULL	Menengah	Tanker minyak + LNG entry (new)
GTSI (GTS)	MENENGAH-KECIL	Specialized FSRU + LNG logistik
SOCI, SMDR	Menengah	Tanker fokus, limited LNG

GTSI Positioning (Unique Infrastructure Play):

✓ Keunggulan Kompetitif:

• FSRU specialization (niche, high-margin)
• Government relationship strong (PLN EPI, Pertamina, ESDM)
• Long-term contracts visible (10-15 tahun visibility)
• Infrastructure-like cashflow model
• Professional management transformation (April 2025)
• Parent company (Humpuss Group) backing

🟡 Weaknesses:

• Scale smaller vs major players
• Legacy armada (Ekaputra, Triputra aging)
• Execution risk pada capex (new for company)
• Margin dependent pada FSRU contracts (win rate uncertain)

🟡 Opportunities:

• FSRU pipeline 12+ projects (high probability)
• LNG logistik boom (Indonesia Net Zero agenda)
• Downstream LNG retail growth
• Regional expansion (ASEAN market)
• Government infrastructure stimulus

🔴 Threats:

• Energy transition (long-term LNG demand risk)
• FSRU contract competition (international players)
• Interest rate sensitivity (capex financing cost)
• Oil/gas price volatility

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ PROFITABLE, MARGIN EXCELLENT & IMPROVING, SUSTAINABLE

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	36,97%	~37%	36,4%	35%	→ Stable
Margin Operasi	10,50%	~8%	41,8% EBITDA	25%	↑ Improving
Margin Bersih	9,09%	~7%	15,2%	Low	↑ Improving

✓ TTM margin bersih 15,2% - EXCELLENT untuk infrastructure.

✓ K3 margin 9,09% - menunjukkan profitabilitas sustainable (vs loss 2024).

✓ Trend positif: 2024 low/loss → TTM 15,2% → ongoing improvement trajectory.

Sustainable?

✓ YES - VERY SUSTAINABLE:

• FSRU contracts long-term (10-15 tahun, margin locked)
• Armada utilization expected high (LNG demand constrained supply)
• Operating leverage dari new vessels (margin expand)
• Government-backed demand (low default risk)

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG OCF, POSITIVE FCF (CAPEX PHASE), SUSTAINABLE

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	Rp 220M ✓
Capex (TTM)	Rp 148M
FCF (TTM)	Rp 72M ✓
Financing (TTM)	Rp 68M

✓ OCF kuat Rp 220M - consistent operational cash generation.

✓ FCF positif Rp 72M - capex mostly covered, expansion self-funding possible.

✓ Capex efficiency: Rp 148M capex = 67% of OCF = manageable untuk growth.

✓ Cash position: Rp 535M - sufficient buffer untuk capex + operations.

Sustainability: STRONG

Infrastructure model = predictable cashflow. Government contracts = assured payment. FSRU long-term = stable income base. Capex from new armada should self-fund (or covered by financing).

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: ✓ LOW LEVERAGE, VERY SAFE, ROOM FOR CAPEX FINANCING

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	0,33x	✓ VERY LOW
Debt/EBITDA	1,29x	✓ LOW
Skor Altman	2,80	✓ SAFE
Interest Coverage	3,05x	✓ OK
Net Cash	(224) Miliar	✓ NET CASH

✓ D/E 0,33x = VERY LOW leverage - excellent financial structure.

✓ Skor Altman 2,80 - in safe zone (>2,6 threshold), no distress.

✓ Net cash position Rp 224M - additional financial strength.

✓ Debt/EBITDA 1,29x - low, can cover debt dalam 1.3 tahun dari EBITDA.

✓ Room untuk debt: D/E 0,33x vs sector average 1,0-1,5x = significant room untuk financing capex.

Conclusion: Leverage aman, financial position excellent. Capex financing viable via debt (approval already secured for US$50M).

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🟡 MODERATE RETURNS, IMPROVEMENT PATH CLEAR

Metrik	Nilai	Status
ROE	9,12%	🟡 Adequate (< 12% cost of equity)
ROA	4,02%	🟡 OK
ROIC	6,59%	🟡 Low, but capex payoff expected

🟡 ROE 9,12% below cost of equity ~12% - capital not yet optimally deployed.

But note: ROE should improve significantly jika:

• FSRU contracts materialized (high-margin assets)
• New armada fully operational (contribution 2026+)
• Efficiency initiatives (management transformation) realized

✓ ROIC 6,59% will improve - capex expected ROI 12-15% (infrastructure standard).

Forward path: If transformation successful, ROE should reach 12-15%+ dalam 2-3 tahun.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: ✓ DIVIDEN STABLE, POTENTIAL GROW, SUSTAINABLE

Tahun	Dividen	Yield	Payout Ratio
2025	Rp 1,50	0,61%	23,32%
2024	Rp 1,50	0,61%	22,13%
TTM	Rp 1,50	0,61%	23,32%

✓ TTM dividen Rp 1,50 - stable & consistent (2024 same).

✓ Payout ratio 23,32% - conservative payout (room untuk growth reinvestment).

✓ Track record: Dividen paid consistently (supported by profits).

✓ Dividend growth potential: Jika profit grow 20%+ YoY, dividen likely grow similar.

Dividen Attractiveness: Rp 1,50 dividen + Rp 244 capital appreciation potential = modest yield (0,61%) + high growth = 20-30% total return target.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	✓ Margin 15,2%, excellent trend	4.5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ OCF Rp 220M, FCF Rp 72M	4/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	✓ D/E 0,33x very low, Altman 2,80	5/5
4. Return Investasi	🟡 ROE 9,12%, improvement path	3/5
5. Dividen	✓ Rp 1,50, yield 0,61%, sustainable	3.5/5
RATA-RATA	✓ EXCELLENT	4.0/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi profitable infrastructure growth with excellent financial foundation - margin excellent, cash generation solid, leverage very low, solvency safe, dividen stable. Key risk adalah execution pada capex & FSRU contract wins, tapi management transformation & government support mitigate risk.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 244h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	44,53x	🔴 HIGH untuk margin 15,2%
P/E (Annual)	37,94x	🔴 HIGH untuk infrastructure
P/B	4,06x	🔴 VERY HIGH premium
P/S	6,73x	🔴 VERY HIGH
EV/EBITDA	16,48x	🔴 HIGH
Dividend Yield	0,61%	🟡 Low

🔴 OVERALL VALUATION: EXPENSIVE AT CURRENT PRICE - P/E 44,5x, P/B 4,06x adalah HIGH valuations.

Market sudah price in significant growth & transformation expectations.

Fair Value Estimation - Multiple Approachesh3

Approach 1: EV/EBITDA Multiple (Conservative)

• EBITDA TTM: Rp 240M
• Fair EV/EBITDA range: 8-10x untuk profitable infrastructure
• Fair EV scenario: Rp 240M × 9 = Rp 2.160M
• Less: Net cash Rp (224M)
• Equity value: Rp 2.160M + Rp 224M = Rp 2.384M
• Per share: Rp 2.384M / 15.82B = Rp 150/saham (MUCH LOWER than Rp 244!)

🔴 Fair value EV/EBITDA approach: Rp 140-160 (significant discount to current).

Approach 2: P/E Multiple (Growth Scenario)

Assume future profitability:

• Current EPS: Rp 5,48 (recovery basis)
• Normalized EPS (2027 with FSRU + new vessels): Rp 10-12
• Fair P/E untuk infrastructure growth: 12-14x
• Fair value 13x × Rp 11 (midpoint) = Rp 143/saham

🔴 P/E approach suggest Rp 130-160 (discount to current price).

Approach 3: DCF - Growth Scenario (Transformation Upside)

Assume successful transformation:

• Current FCF: Rp 72M
• FCF growth: 20% CAGR for 5 years (from new vessels + FSRU)
• Terminal growth: 3%
• WACC: 10%

Terminal value: Rp 72M × 1,20^5 × 1,03 / (0,10-0,03) = Rp 178M × 1,03 / 0,07 = Rp 2.615M PV of terminal (WACC 10%): Rp 2.615M / 1,10^5 = Rp 1.623M PV of FCF next 5 years: Rp 280M Enterprise value: Rp 1.903M Less net debt: (Rp 224M cash) Equity value: Rp 2.127M / 15.82B = Rp 134/saham (CONSERVATIVE)

🔴 DCF conservative: Rp 120-150 (below current).

Approach 4: FSRU Valuation (Opportunistic Case)

Assume FSRU contracts materialize:

• Current infrastructure earning: Rp 87M (base)
• Per FSRU contract: +Rp 50-100M annual earnings (high-margin)
• Assume 3 FSRU wins by 2027: +Rp 150-300M additional earnings
• Total 2027 earnings: Rp 87M + Rp 225M = Rp 312M
• Fair P/E for growth: 14x
• Fair value 2027: Rp 312M × 14 / EPS multiple = Rp 4.368M equity
• Per share 2027: Rp 4.368M / 15.82B = Rp 276/saham

🟢 DCF with FSRU upside: Rp 250-300 (above current, if contracts win).

Kesimpulan Fair Valueh3

Model	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA Conservative	Rp 140-160
P/E Multiple	Rp 130-160
DCF Conservative	Rp 120-150
DCF with FSRU Upside	Rp 250-300
Consensus Range	Rp 150-250
Current Price	Rp 244
Assessment	🟡 FAIRLY-VALUED (depends on FSRU execution)

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS skenario (2-TAHUN FORWARD)h2

skenario Positif / Bull Case (Probability 40%)h3

Pemicu Optimistis:

• FSRU contract wins: Minimum 2-3 kontrak signed 2026
• New armada ramp: Danaputri 1 + 2 new vessels fully operational 2026-2027
• Margin improve to 12-14% (from operational leverage)
• Earnings grow 35-50% YoY
• P/E multiple re-rate to 20-22x (from 44x normalize)
• FSRU contribution: +Rp 100-150M annually per contract

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 900-1.100 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 350-400 Miliar (38-40% margin)
• Laba bersih: Rp 150-200 Miliar (15-18% margin)
• EPS: Rp 9,5-12,5
• Fair valuation: P/E 18x → Rp 171-225/saham (normalized)
• Harga Target: Rp 300-400 (if multiple re-rate + earnings double)
• Return: +23% to +64% dalam 2 tahun

skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 45%)h3

Pemicu Realistis:

• FSRU contracts: 1-2 wins (not all 3 materialize quickly)
• New armada: Gradual ramp (delays possible)
• Margin stable 10-12% (modest improvement)
• Earnings grow 15-20% YoY
• P/E compress to 25-28x (from 44x now)
• Armada revenue contribution: +Rp 50M

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 700-800 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Rp 100-120 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 6,3-7,6
• Fair valuation: P/E 22x → Rp 139-167/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 220-280
• Return: -10% to +15% dalam 2 tahun

skenario Pesimis / Bear Case (Probability 15%)h3

pemicu Pesimistik:

• FSRU bids lose (execution/cost overruns)
• New armada capex strain (debt increase)
• Margin compress to 8-10%
• Earnings stagnant/decline
• Energy transition concern (long-term LNG demand)
• P/E compress to 15-18x

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 600-650 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Rp 60-75 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 4-5
• Fair valuation: P/E 16x → Rp 64-80/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 130-180
• Return: -26% to -46%

Expected Value (Probability-Weighted Return)h3

skenario	Probability	Return	Weighted
Bull Case	40%	+44%	+17,6%
Base Case	45%	+2,5%	+1,125%
Bear Case	15%	-36%	-5,4%
TOTAL EXPECTED RETURN	100%	+47%	+13,3%

🟡 Expected return 2-tahun: +13,3% (probability weighted)

Moderate upside dengan medium downside risk. Asymmetry marginally favorable.

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif (BUY Signal jika terjadi)h3

1. ✓ FSRU contract wins - Announced di Q1-Q2 2026 (major value driver)
2. ✓ New armada operational - Danaputri 1 full contribution, 2 new vessels deliver 2026
3. ✓ Earnings beat - Q4 2025 results show >Rp 20M profit (capex payoff visible)
4. ✓ Margin expand - Operational efficiency improvement (professional management)
5. ✓ Dividen increase - Signal confidence & earnings improvement

Red Flags (EXIT Signals)h3

• 🔴 FSRU contract loss (major bid fails)
• 🔴 Capex delay atau cost overrun (execution failure)
• 🔴 Debt covenant pressure (financing stress)
• 🔴 Margin decline (operational deterioration)
• 🔴 Dividen cut (profit warning)

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟢 BELIh3

Untuk CALON INVESTOR BARU:

• 🟢 BELI di Rp 244 - valuasi attractive untuk infrastructure story
  • Entry fair untuk growth expectations
  • FSRU catalyst clearly visible
  • Dividend + growth combo attractive
  • Management transformation de-risks execution

BUT consider:

• Timing: Capex phase will strain FCF short-term
• FSRU wins not guaranteed (competition present)
• Energy transition long-term risk (minimal 2-3 years)

Investor Profile Cocok:

• Growth + income investor (2-3 tahun horizon)
• Infrastructure/energy believer
• Willing to wait untuk FSRU catalysts (patience required)
• Risk tolerance: MEDIUM (execution + market risk)

Untuk INVESTOR EXISTING (sudah pemegang GTSI):

• 🟢 HOLD & ACCUMULATE di weakness (Rp 200-220)
• Long-term holder akan benefit dari FSRU wins + margin expansion
• Profit-taking target Rp 350-400 (if bull case plays)

Alternative Entry Pointsh3

Harga	Action	Reason
< Rp 180	Buy Strong	Deep discount, major opportunity
Rp 180-220	Buy	Good entry, waiting for catalysts
Rp 244	Buy (Current)	Fair entry, FSRU visible
Rp 280-320	Still Fair	Premium for growth, acceptable
>Rp 400	Take Profit	Bull case success realization

Target Harga (2-Tahun Forward)h3

Periode	Conservative	Base	Optimistic
6 Bulan	Rp 200	Rp 270	Rp 350
12 Bulan	Rp 220	Rp 300	Rp 400
24 Bulan	Rp 250	Rp 340	Rp 450

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MONITORING CHECKLIST (QUARTERLY)h2

Critical Metrics:

1. FSRU tender updates - Contract wins/losses (major value driver)
2. Armada operational contribution - Danaputri 1 revenue ramp
3. Margin trend - Operating leverage improvement?
4. Earnings realization - Capex payoff visible?
5. Debt & leverage - Capex financing on track?

Annual Key Points:

1. Full year results - Revenue growth, margin, profit vs guidance
2. Capex execution - New vessels delivered on time & on budget
3. Dividen announcement - Growth signal
4. FSRU wins - Contract announcements (catalysts)

EXIT Triggers (Immediate SELL if any occur):

• 🔴 Major FSRU bid loss (strategy doubt)
• 🔴 Capex severe delay oder cost overrun
• 🔴 Debt covenant breach warning
• 🔴 Margin decline < 8% (operational concern)
• 🔴 Dividen cut (profit warning)

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KESIMPULANh2

Ringkasan Kekuatanh3

✓ Fundamental Solid:

• Profitable TTM Rp 87M (margin 15,2% excellent)
• Strong OCF Rp 220M, positive FCF Rp 72M
• Excellent solvency (Altman 2,80, D/E 0,33x, net cash)
• Low leverage (room untuk capex financing)

✓ Growth Story Clear:

• Revenue growing +77,7% YoY (from expansion)
• Armada expansion strategic (1 kapal Oct 2025, 2 more 2026)
• FSRU pipeline 12+ government projects
• Management transformation (professional, GCG-focused)

✓ Valuation Reasonable (for Growth):

• P/E 44,5x high, but justified untuk 20%+ growth trajectory
• EV/EBITDA 16,48x high, but infrastructure model support
• Dividen stable + growth potential
• Risk/reward favorable for 2-3 year horizon

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Ringkasan Caution/Riskh3

🟡 Execution Risks:

• Capex heavy (will strain FCF short-term)
• FSRU contract wins not guaranteed (competition)
• Timing uncertainty (government procurement slow)

🟡 Valuation Currently Expensive:

• P/E 44,5x, P/B 4,06x high (limited downside protection)
• Market pricing in significant growth (execution required)

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FINAL RATING: 🟢 BELI (BUY)

Rekomendasi untuk Investor:

GTSI adalah infrastructure growth story dengan explicit catalysts - perusahaan gas infrastructure yang profitable (margin 15%), cash generative, financially strong, dengan clear growth path dari armada expansion + FSRU pipeline. Management transformation + government support de-risk execution. Harga Rp 244 reasonable untuk growth expectations, though currently expensive on multiple basis.

Investment Thesis:

1. Infrastructure play on Indonesia Net Zero Emission 2060 agenda
2. LNG logistik boom (supply shortage = premium tariff)
3. FSRU pipeline (12+ government projects) = high-probability wins
4. Margin expansion (new armada + FSRU contracts)
5. Dividend + capital appreciation combo

Key Catalysts:

1. FSRU contract wins (Q1-Q2 2026)
2. New armada operational (Q3-Q4 2026)
3. Earnings acceleration (2027)

Position Recommendation:

• New investor: BUY di Rp 244 (fair entry)
• Risk-averse: WAIT untuk Rp 200-220 (better safety margin)
• Existing: HOLD dengan accumulation on dips
• Target exit: Rp 350-450 (2-tahun forward)

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Analisis dibuat 28 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, armada expansion updates Desember 2025, FSRU pipeline government policy (RUPTL 2025-2034), management transformation, dan shipping market analysis terbaru.