Analisis mendalam saham PJHB per kuartal ketiga 2025, mencakup profil bisnis, kinerja keuangan, valuasi, risiko, dan rekomendasi investasi.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 272 per lembar (Post-IPO Reset, -18% dari IPO Rp 330, -75% dari peak Rp 1.085)
Ticker: PJHB (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Pelayaran Jaya Hidup Baru Tbk
Sektor: Maritim - Angkutan Laut Domestik, LCT Vessel Charter, Logistik Barang Berat
Nilai Pasar: Rp 515 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 1,92 Miliar lembar
IPO Date: 6 November 2025 (BARU! 54 hari saja)
Harga IPO: Rp 330 per lembar
Dana IPO Diperoleh: Rp 158,4 Miliar (untuk 3 kapal LCT baru)
🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - HOLD/ACCUMULATE (EARLY-STAGE IPO, ARMADA RAMP-UP, HIGH-GROWTH POTENTIAL, HIGH-RISK EXECUTION)h2
Rating: 🟡 HOLD/ACCUMULATE (Perusahaan maritim early-stage IPO dengan structural tailwinds kuat (Tol Laut, maritime connectivity) tapi facing near-term headwinds (revenue momentum weak, post-IPO volatility), valuation reset ke Rp 272 menarik untuk patient capital believing armada expansion will drive 2026+ growth)
PJHB adalah perusahaan LCT vessel charter kecil (Samarinda-based) yang baru IPO 6 November 2025. Fundamental EARLY-STAGE: TTM menunjukkan spartan data (Q1 profit Rp 6M, Q4 2024 Rp 10M), current armada 5 kapal, rencana 3 kapal baru funded dari IPO proceeds (Rp 158,4M). Balance sheet EXCELLENT: aset Rp 165M, liabilitas minimal Rp 5M, ekuitas Rp 159M (D/E near zero, Altman 31,91 best-in-class solvency). Profitabilitas tinggi (Q3 net margin 32,35%, gross 46,18% excellent) tapi revenue momentum YoY turun (-1,8% recent, -2,5% 2022-23, -2,6% 2023-24) due to pre-IPO underutilization. Management confident: target 50%+ profit growth 2026 as 3 new vessels come online & utilization improves. P/E 21,94x fair untuk growth, P/B 3,24x premium. Saham crashed -75% dari peak (Rp 1.085 Nov 12 → Rp 272 now) = post-IPO RESET suggesting retail exhaustion, attractive entry for long-term. Rating HOLD/ACCUMULATE untuk patient capital (3-5 year thesis).
Status Kini (Data Q1-Q4 2025, IPO 6 Nov 2025, Post-IPO Trading):
| Item | Nilai | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp ~48-55 Miliar (sparse) | Estimated from quarterly fragments |
| Laba Bersih Q1-Q4 | Rp 6-10M quarter | Limited Q data available |
| Profit Margin | 32,35% net (Q3), 46,18% gross | EXCELLENT ✓ |
| Aset Total | Rp 165 Miliar | Light balance sheet |
| Liabilitas | Rp 5 Miliar | Minimal |
| Ekuitas | Rp 159 Miliar | Strong |
| D/E Ratio | ~0,03x | BEST-IN-CLASS ✓ |
| Altman Score | 31,91 | EXCELLENT SOLVENCY ✓ |
| Current Armada | 5 kapal LCT | Fully utilized |
| New Vessels (IPO) | 3 kapal LCT 2.500 DWT | Under construction, delivery 2025-end |
| IPO Proceeds | Rp 158,4M | 100% untuk capex vessels |
| P/E (TTM) | 21,94x | Fair untuk growth |
| P/B | 3,24x | Premium |
| Altman | 31,91 | BEST |
Profil IPO Early-Stage & Growth Potential:
- ✓ Structural tailwinds kuat - Tol Laut program, infrastructure development, maritime connectivity
- ✓ Margin excellent - 32% net, 46% gross (teratas industri)
- ✓ Balance sheet pristine - D/E 0,03x, no leverage risk
- ✓ Armada ramp-up underway - 3 new vessels will double capacity (+60% from 5→8)
- 🟡 But revenue momentum weak - YoY declining last 2 years (pre-IPO utilization)
- 🟡 Post-IPO volatility - Crash -75% from peak (Rp 1.085 → Rp 272) unusual for quality IPO
- ✓ Valuation reset attractive - Rp 272 cheap jika armada ramp-up executes
- ✓ Management credible - 17-year history (founded 2008), family-owned
Kesimpulan Awal: PJHB adalah EARLY-STAGE GROWTH MARITIME IPO dengan LONG-TERM THESIS. Fundamental solid (excellent margins, zero debt, strong solvency), structural tailwinds powerful (Tol Laut, logistics growth), tapi near-term challenge (weak revenue momentum, post-IPO volatility). Valuation reset ke Rp 272 attractive jika percaya armada expansion akan drive 2026-2027 growth spurt. Rating HOLD/ACCUMULATE untuk 3-5 year investors.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2
PERHATIAN - DATA SPARSE KARENA IPO BARU (6 Nov 2025):
Lampiran menunjukkan data fragmentary (Q2, Q3 2025 blank, Revenue TTM blank). Ini NORMAL untuk IPO bulan ini - full quarterly disclosure belum lengkap.
Format Konversi (VERIFIED):
- “24 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 24 MILIAR
- “165 B” Total Assets = Rp 165 MILIAR (aset sangat ringan untuk trading company)
- All amounts verified in MILIAR format ✓
Laporan Keuangan (Available Fragments):
| Period | Revenue | Net Profit | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | - | 6 M | - | Early quarter, post-listing |
| Q4 2024 | - | 10 M | - | Last pre-IPO quarter |
| 9M April 2025 | 18,05 M | 5,8 M | 32% | IPO prospectus |
| FY 2024 | 54,66 M | 17,22 M | 31,5% | Good profitability |
| TTM (Q1) | ~48-55M est | ~23M est | ~35-42% | Very high margin |
✓ Profitabilitas tinggi - 30%+ net margin adalah EXCELLENT untuk maritime/logistics.
🟡 Revenue momentum weak - FY2024 Rp 54,66M turun YoY, April-May 2025 pace suggests Rp ~50-55M annualized (flat-to-down).
Per Saham (At Rp 272):
| Metrik | Nilai | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (Annual est) | Rp 12,22 | Positive |
| Book Value Per Share | Rp 82,66 | P/B 3,24x premium |
| P/E (TTM est) | 21,94x | Fair untuk growth |
| Cash Per Share | Rp 2,47 | Minimal cash (IPO proceeds used for capex) |
🟡 P/B 3,24x premium - Suggests market pricing in growth potential (vessels ramp-up), NOT cheap.
🟡 P/E 21,94x moderate - Fair jika revenue growth materialize, expensive jika stalls.
Balance Sheet Strength (Q3 2025):
| Item | Rp Miliar | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Kas | 5 | Very minimal (post-IPO capex heavy spending) |
| Total Aset | 165 | Light, vessel-backed |
| Liabilitas | 5 | Minimal |
| Ekuitas | 159 | Strong, 96% of assets = equity funded |
| D/E | ~0,03x | BEST-IN-CLASS ✓ |
| Net Cash/(Debt) | (5) | Slightly net debt, minimal |
✓ Pristine balance sheet - Practically zero leverage, perfect for capital-intensive business.
✓ Equity-funded growth - No balance sheet risk despite capex heavy model.
Arus Kas:
| Komponen | Assessment |
|---|---|
| OCF | Likely positive (profitable operations) |
| Capex | Rp 158,4M from IPO (heavy 2025, moderate 2026-27) |
| FCF | Likely neutral-to-positive after capex |
✓ Cash generation sufficient untuk armada ramp-up.
Valuation (pada Rp 272):
| Metrik | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM est) | 21,94x | 🟡 Fair-to-high |
| P/E (Annual forward) | 21,94x | Same, limited forward guidance |
| P/B | 3,24x | 🟡 Premium |
| P/S (est) | 5,6x (~Rp 48M ÷ Rp 515M cap) | 🟡 High |
| Price-to-FCF | Unknown | N/A |
🟡 Valuation NOT CHEAP at Rp 272 - but NOT expensive either if armada growth drives 30%+ CAGR.
Liquidity & Solvency:
| Metrik | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 7,26x | ✓ Excellent |
| Quick Ratio | 7,26x | ✓ Excellent |
| D/E | 0,03x | ✓ Best-in-class |
| Interest Coverage | N/A | N/A (no debt) |
| Altman Score | 31,91 | ✓ EXCELLENT |
| Piotroski F-Score | 3,0 | 🟡 Moderate (new company) |
✓ Altman 31,91 best score we’ve seen - Perfect solvency.
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: ✓ EXCELLENT MARGINS, BUT REVENUE MOMENTUM WEAK
✓ Net margin 32,35% (Q3), 31,5% (FY2024) - EXCELLENT untuk maritime.
✓ Gross margin 46,18% - Pricing power evident.
🟡 But revenue declining YoY - Last 2 years -1.8% to -2.6% (pre-IPO underutilization).
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: ✓ POSITIVE, BUT CAPEX HEAVY 2025
✓ Operational cash positive - Profitable operations generate cash.
🟡 Capex Rp 158,4M heavy - Funded from IPO, will impact FCF 2025.
✓ But long-term benefit - 3 new vessels will drive 2026+ growth exponentially.
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: ✓ PRISTINE - BEST-IN-CLASS
✓ D/E 0,03x minimal - Practically no leverage.
✓ Altman 31,91 excellent - Perfect solvency, zero financial distress risk.
✓ Equity-funded growth - No balance sheet stress.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: 🟡 LIMITED DATA, BUT MARGINS SUGGEST GOOD RETURNS IF SCALED
🟡 TTM returns unclear - Limited profitability data pre-IPO.
✓ But 30%+ margins suggest 10-15% ROIC possible if capital efficiently deployed.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: - NO DIVIDEN YET, GROWTH PHASE
❌ No dividen 2025 - Company retaining cash for growth.
✓ But potential post-2026 - Once armada expansion complete and cash generation strong.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | ✓ Excellent margin | 4.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | ✓ Positive (capex heavy) | 3/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | ✓✓ Best-in-class | 5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | 🟡 Unclear, promise | 3/5 |
| 5. Dividen | - None yet | 0/5 |
| RATA-RATA | ✓ GOOD | 3.1/5 |
Score 3.1/5 reflective of IPO early-stage: Strong foundation (solvency, margins) but growth execution & revenue momentum TBD.
TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2
Fair Value Estimation (Based on Vessel Ramp-up Thesis):
| Scenario | Fair Value | Target Revenue 2027 | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Rp 350-400 | Rp 70-80M | Flat growth, 1-2 vessel utilization |
| Base Case | Rp 500-600 | Rp 100-120M | 50% revenue growth, 3 vessels fully utilized |
| Bull Case | Rp 750-900 | Rp 150M+ | 150%+ growth, market expansion |
Current Rp 272 vs Fair Value:
- Conservative: +29-47% upside
- Base: +84-121% upside
- Bull: +176-231% upside
🟡 VALUATION DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON VESSEL RAMP-UP EXECUTION - No margin of safety in baseline.
TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2
| Scenario | Probability | Return | Target | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 25% | +100% | Rp 544 | 3 vessels operational by Q4 2025, revenue accelerates, 50%+ growth 2026 |
| Base | 50% | +40% | Rp 381 | 2 vessels operational by end 2025, steady ramp, 20-30% growth |
| Bear | 20% | -30% | Rp 190 | Vessel delays, market softness, revenue stalls, valuation compression |
| Crash | 5% | -80% | Rp 54 | Execution failure, vessel cost overruns, market loss |
| Expected | +23% | Rp 334 | Modest positive, high-risk distribution |
🟡 Expected return +23% modest - reflects execution risk & post-IPO volatility.
REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: 🟡 HOLD/ACCUMULATE (Not BUY - High-Risk IPO, Requires Thesis Conviction)h3
🟡 ACCUMULATE selectively di Rp 272 (Hanya untuk long-term vessel growth believers)
Alasan BUY/ACCUMULATE:
- ✓ Post-IPO crash (-75% dari peak) = valuation reset opportunity
- ✓ Structural tailwinds strong (Tol Laut, maritime growth, infrastructure)
- ✓ Balance sheet pristine (D/E 0,03x, Altman 31,91 - best-in-class)
- ✓ Margin excellent (32% net - teratas industri)
- ✓ Vessel ramp-up underway (3 new = +60% capacity, fundedaddy)
- ✓ Management credible (17 tahun history, family-owned)
TAPI WARNING:
- ❌ Revenue momentum weak (YoY declining 2 years)
- ❌ IPO volatility extreme (-75% crash unusual)
- ❌ Execution risk high (vessel delivery timeline, utilization ramp)
- ❌ Valuation NOT cheap (P/E 21.94x, P/B 3.24x premium IF growth materializes)
- ❌ No dividen, all cash retention
Entry Strategy (High-Risk Thesis):
| Level | Action | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Rp 250-300 | SMALL BUY 15-20% portfolio | Post-IPO reset, long-term conviction |
| Rp 200-250 | Accumulate (if further weakness) | Washout, attractive entry |
| Rp 400-500 | HOLD | Full vessel ramp confirmed |
| >Rp 600 | Take profit 50% | Major thesis validation |
Hold Period: 3-5 years MINIMUM (vessel capex cycle, utilization ramp)
Key Catalysts to Monitor:
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | First 1-2 vessels delivered | Revenue momentum proof |
| Q1-Q2 2026 | All 3 vessels operational, chartered | Capacity utilization visible |
| H2 2026 | Management guidance for 50% growth achieved | Valuation re-rating |
| 2027+ | Second capex wave (4th-5th vessel?) | Long-term growth acceleration |
Risk Management:
- 🔴 Stop-Loss: Rp 150 (fundamental deterioration, vessel delays)
- 🟡 Red Flags: Vessel delivery slips > 6 months, revenue < Rp 50M annualized, charter contracts decline
- ✓ Best Case Catalyst: First vessel operational, immediate 5-10% contract wins
KESIMPULANh2
PJHB adalah 🟡 HOLD/ACCUMULATE - IPO EARLY-STAGE MARITIME GROWTH dengan LONG-TERM THESIS.
Fundamental:
- ✓ Excellent margins (32% net), pristine balance sheet (D/E 0,03x)
- ✓ Structural tailwinds (Tol Laut, maritime growth)
- 🟡 But weak revenue momentum pre-IPO, execution risk on vessel ramp
Valuation:
- 🟡 NOT CHEAP at Rp 272 (P/E 21.94x, P/B 3.24x premium)
- ✓ But attractive IF 50%+ growth materializes (vessel ramp-up thesis)
- ✓ Post-IPO crash -75% suggests oversold, opportunity for conviction buyers
Best for:
- Long-term maritime/logistics believers
- Patient capital (3-5 year hold)
- Can accept -50% drawdown jika wrong
- Believe in Tol Laut/Indonesia maritime expansion
NOT for:
- Short-term traders (volatility extreme)
- Risk-averse (execution uncertain)
- Growth-at-any-price (need conviction on vessel ramp thesis)
Thesis Summary: IPO baru dengan balance sheet excellent + margin excellent + structural tailwinds, tapi facing near-term revenue headwind & execution risk. Valuation reset ke Rp 272 dari peak Rp 1.085 attractive untuk patient thesis-driven capital. Hold/Accumulate jika convinced armada ramp-up will happen 2025-2026.
Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan IPO prospectus, Q1-Q4 2025 fragments, post-IPO performance (IPO 6 Nov 2025), dan maritime sector tailwinds.
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