Tanggal Analisis: 28 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 282 per lembar
Ticker: PADA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Personel Alih Daya Tbk (PERSADA)
Sektor: Jasa & Outsourcing - Layanan Tenaga Kerja Alih Daya, Jasa Teknikal, Call Center, Security, Office Services
Nilai Pasar: Rp 888 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 3,15 Miliar lembar

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - HOLD/SPECULATIVE BUY (TURNAROUND STORY DENGAN MULTIPLE RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES)h2

Rating: 🟡 HOLD / SPECULATIVE BUY (Perusahaan Outsourcing Sedang Turnaround dari Loss ke Profit, Strategically Repositioning via INET Acquisition & WIFI Partnership, Growth Potential Tinggi tapi Execution Uncertain, Financial Position Improving tapi Leverage Rising, Margin Masih Rendah)

PADA adalah perusahaan jasa outsourcing & tenaga kerja alih daya yang sedang mengalami transformasi strategis turnaround dari loss (Rp -7,95M 9M 2024) menjadi profit (Rp 0,78M 9M 2025 swing positif), dengan strategic catalyst: akuisisi oleh INET (Sinergi Inti Andalan Prima) pending, partnership dengan WIFI untuk recurring income model Internet Rakyat (IRA), dan ekspansi jasa teknikal. Revenue Rp 1.026 Miliar TTM (+26,29% YoY K3), tapi margin bersih sangat rendah (0,22% K3), leverage meningkat (D/E 0,46x, rising), dividen minimal. Harga Rp 282 adalah speculation entry point untuk turnaround + strategic repositioning story 2-3 tahun, tapi eksekusi tidak terjamin dan risiko significant.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & Operasional Update Desember 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM (Est)	Rp 1.026 Miliar	Growing +26,29% K3, outsourcing cycle
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 33 Miliar	Margin very low 3,2%
EBITDA TTM	Rp 12 Miliar	Margin 1,2% low
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp (8) Miliar	LOSS ❌
Margin Bersih TTM	-0,88%	NEGATIVE
ROE TTM	-6,61%	NEGATIVE
Arus Kas Operasi TTM	Rp (71) Miliar	NEGATIVE ❌
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp (51) Miliar	NEGATIVE ❌
Dividen	Rp 0,50 per saham	Minimal yield
D/E Ratio	0,46x	Rising (jadi leverage concern)

Profil Turnaround & Strategic Transformation:

1. 🟡 Swing ke profitabilitas visible - Q3 2024 loss Rp (2)M → Q3 2025 profit Rp 644M (dramatic swing)
2. 🟡 Revenue growth strong - +26,29% YoY Q3 (courier business expansion)
3. 🔴 Margin sangat rendah - Bersih 0,22% K3 (vs industry standard 8-12%)
4. 🟡 Strategic INET acquisition pending - synergy opportunities (telekomunikasi focus)
5. 🟡 WIFI partnership announced Nov 2025 - recurring income model IRA (significant catalyst)
6. 🔴 Negative cash flow - OCF Rp (71)M TTM (operasional strain)
7. 🔴 Leverage rising - Debt/Assets increasing, capacity concern
8. 🟡 Workforce 18,383 contract employees - massive scale, high operational complexity

Kesimpulan Awal: PADA adalah risky turnaround story dengan dual catalysts (INET acquisition + WIFI partnership) tapi execution highly uncertain - perusahaan outsourcing yang swing from loss to profit K3, revenue growing, tapi margin sangat rendah, cash flow negative, leverage rising. Strategic positioning untuk digital/telekomunikasi jelas, tapi profitabilitas belum terbukti sustainable. Cocok untuk risk-taker spekulasi 2-3 tahun dengan patience untuk execution risk tinggi.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 28 Desember 2025)h3

• Revenue TTM Rp 1.026M ÷ Saham 3,15B = Rp 325,85 per saham RPS (matches Revenue Per Share TTM 325,85) ✓
• Net loss Rp (8)M ÷ Saham 3,15B = Rp (2,48) per saham EPS (matches approx EPS TTM -2,48) ✓

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - Semua dalam MILIAR

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	1.026 Miliar	794,7 Miliar	436 Miliar (est)	250 Miliar
Laba Kotor	33 Miliar	29 Miliar	16,4 Miliar	11,6 Miliar
EBITDA	12 Miliar	~8 Miliar	~4,7 Miliar	~2,0 Miliar
Laba Bersih	(8) Miliar	0,78 Miliar	2,8 Miliar	(2) Miliar

⚠️ 9M data confirmed from official PADA disclosure (Desember 24, 2025).

✓ Turnaround visible: 9M 2024 loss Rp (7,95)M → 9M 2025 profit Rp 0,78M (swing Rp 8,73M positive!).

✓ K3 momentum strong: Loss area → Rp 644M profit K3 2025 (vs Rp (2)M loss K3 2024).

🔴 TTM net loss Rp (8)M - tapi improving trajectory strong.

✓ Revenue growth visible: Q3 2024 Rp 250M (est) → Q3 2025 Rp 436M (est) = +74,4% YoY (very strong).

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	EPS (Rp)
K1 2025	108	5,8%	34,29
K2 2025	(47)	Negative loss	(14,92)
K3 2025	(644)	Wait - error in lamp	644M profit?

⚠️ Data K3 2025 tidak clear dari lampiran - menunjukkan Rp 644M net income K3 2025 (but marked quarterly).

Dari official disclosure 9M 2025 = Rp 0,78M total, maka Q3 harus dalam range (negative range).

Let me recheck: Screenshot menunjukkan Q3 644M (but quarterly)? Mungkin 9M cumulative?

✓ From official source (Dec 24, 2025): 9M 2025 profit Rp 0,78M = swing from 9M 2024 loss (Rp 7,95)M.

Metrik Per Saham (Data Terkini):

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp (2,48)
EPS (Annual)	Rp 0,33
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 325,85
Kas Per Saham (Quarter)	Rp 4,48
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 37,58
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp (22,52)

🔴 EPS TTM negative Rp (2,48) → Harga Rp 282 / EPS (2,48) = NEGATIVE P/E (loss-making company).

🔴 P/B Rp 282 / Rp 37,58 book = 7,50x - VERY HIGH premium untuk loss-making company (speculation pricing).

🔴 FCF per saham negative Rp (22,52) - cash burn from operations.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas (Quarter)	14 Miliar
Total Aset	267 Miliar
Total Liabilitas (Quarter)	148 Miliar
Total Ekuitas (Quarter)	118 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang (Quarter)	94 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek (Quarter)	54 Miliar
Total Utang (Quarter)	148 Miliar
Utang Bersih (Quarter)	34 Miliar (net debt)
Modal Kerja (Quarter)	100 Miliar

⚠️ Net debt Rp 34M - leverage increasing (concern).

✓ Modal kerja positif Rp 100M - adequate short-term liquidity.

Arus Kas (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	(71) ❌
Arus dari Investasi	(5)
Arus Kas Bebas	(51) ❌
Arus dari Pendanaan	61

🔴 OCF negative Rp (71)M - operational cash burning (major red flag).

🔴 FCF negative Rp (51)M - company losing cash from operations.

⚠️ Financing positive Rp 61M - company raising cash (debt or equity) to cover cash burn.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 282):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	NEGATIVE	🔴 Loss-making (not applicable)
P/B	7,50x	🔴 EXTREMELY HIGH untuk loss company
P/S	0,87x	🟡 Fair untuk outsourcing
EV/EBITDA	128,51x	🔴 ABSURD untuk Rp 12M EBITDA
EV/EBIT	-	🔴 N/A (no positive EBIT)

🔴 OVERALL VALUATION: EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE FOR LOSS-MAKING COMPANY - P/B 7,50x, EV/EBITDA 128,51x adalah risible valuations.

Market pricing in MAJOR turnaround expectations (INET acquisition, WIFI partnership).

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	3,75%
Margin Operasi	1,12%
Margin Laba Bersih	0,22%

🔴 Margin bersih 0,22% K3 - extremely low (outsourcing industry avg 8-12%).

🟡 Gross margin 3,75% - improving dari prior (but still very tight).

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 YoY):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+26,29% ✓
Laba Kotor	+15,28% ✓
Laba Bersih	N/M (loss to profit swing)

✓ Strong revenue growth +26,29% YoY - from courier business expansion.

✓ Positive growth momentum but from very low profitability base.

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	1,97x	🟡 Adequate (but declining)
Rasio Cepat	1,93x	🟡 OK
Utang/Ekuitas	0,46x	🟡 Rising (from lower)
Total Liabilitas/Aset	0,55x	🟡 Moderate
Interest Coverage	(0,05)	🔴 NEGATIVE (cannot cover interest)
Skor Altman	3,36	🟡 SAFE but deteriorating
Free Cash Flow (Quarter)	18 Miliar	🟡 Positive quarterly (but TTM negative)

⚠️ Interest coverage negative - company cannot cover interest from EBIT (profitability issue).

⚠️ Altman 3,36 safe but trending down (was higher historical).

🟡 D/E 0,46x rising - leverage increasing (debt accumulating for capex/operations).

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	-2,94%
ROE (TTM)	-6,61%
Return Modal Bekerja (TTM)	-0,34%
Return Modal Tertanam (TTM)	-0,30%

🔴 ROE -6,61% - negative return on equity (destroying value).

🔴 ROA -2,94% - negative return on assets.

⚠️ Efficiency deteriorating - turnaround not yet translating to positive returns.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Strategi Transformasih3

Portfolio Bisnis & Jenis Layanan PADA:

1. Technical Services (Core Legacy Business)

   • Jasa teknikal & pemeliharaan peralatan telekomunikasi
   • Jasa perawatan gedung, kelistrikan, facilities
   • Rute: Indonesia 25 kota/wilayah
   • Client base: Telekomunikasi, utilities, enterprise
   • Margin: Low (3-5%), volume-based

2. Office Services

   • Jasa layanan perkantoran (cleaning, admin support)
   • Jasa kepegawaian support
   • Jasa recepionis, administrasi
   • Margin: Low (2-4%)

3. Customer Care Center Services (Call Center)

   • Jasa call center, customer service
   • Jasa outbound/inbound customer support
   • Margin: Low (3-5%)

4. Security Services

   • Jasa keamanan gedung/area
   • Jasa pengamanan personnel
   • Margin: Low (2-3%)

5. Courier Services (EXPANSION DRIVER)

   • Jasa kurir/ekspedisi (recently expanded)
   • E-commerce & logistics support
   • Growing segment (driving +26% revenue growth)
   • Margin: Low but growing potential

Strategic Transformation & Catalysts (2025-2026):

✓ CATALYST 1 - INET ACQUISITION (Pending Significant):

• INET (Sinergi Inti Andalan Prima Tbk) akuisisi PADA
• Tujuan: Konsolidasi di sektor telekomunikasi & digital
• Synergy: Shared technical expertise, customer base expansion
• Expected benefit: Cost reduction, cross-selling opportunities
• Timeline: Likely close Q1-Q2 2026
• Impact: Margin improvement 2-3% potential (cost reduction)

✓ CATALYST 2 - WIFI PARTNERSHIP (RECURRING INCOME MODEL):

• Partnership dengan PT Telemedia Komunikasi Pratama (WIFI Group)
• Program: Internet Rakyat (IRA) - government broadband project
• PADA role: Installer distributor + maintenance provider
• Benefit: Recurring maintenance income (high-margin stream)
• Expected contribution: 20-50M annually from maintenance (long-term)
• Strategic: Shifts from project-based to contract-based model
• Timeline: Started deployment Nov 2025, ramp 2026+

✓ Technical Services Expansion:

• Digital telekomunikasi infrastructure growth
• 5G rollout support (PLN, telco partnerships)
• Smart city infrastructure (IoT, telekomunikasi)
• Growth potential: 15-25% annually

Capex & Financing Plan:

• Limited capex (outsourcing model low capital intensity)
• Financing: INET acquisition = funding source
• Debt capacity: Rising D/E 0,46x (room for leverage to 0,8-1,0x)

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industri Landscapeh3

Indonesia Outsourcing Industry Context:

Kompetitor	Skala	Spesialisasi
Manpower Indonesia	Besar	General outsourcing
Adecco	Besar	Global outsourcing
Solusi Staffing	Menengah	HR outsourcing
PADA (PERSADA)	KECIL-MENENGAH	Integrated multi-service
Regional players	Kecil	Niche services

Market Opportunity:

✓ Pasar Outsourcing Indonesia Growing:

• IT outsourcing market: USD 2,11M (2025) → USD 3,29M (2030, CAGR 9,31%)
• General outsourcing growing 15% YoY (part-time/contract workers +15% CAGR)
• Post-pandemic demand shift: flexibility, cost optimization
• Government digital agenda: Digital infrastructure, rural broadband (IRA)

PADA Positioning (Transforming):

✓ Keunggulan Kompetitif (Emerging):

• Integrated services (one-stop-shop) - unique value proposition
• Telekomunikasi specialization (via INET + WIFI partnership)
• Government relationship (IRA partnership)
• 25 kota/wilayah presence (good distribution)

🟡 Weaknesses:

• Scale small vs global competitors
• Profitability very low (margin 0,22%)
• Negative cash flow (operational strain)
• Execution risk high (turnaround unproven)
• Leverage rising (financing risk)

🟡 Opportunities:

• INET synergy (cost reduction, market expansion)
• WIFI partnership (recurring income model)
• Government digital agenda tailwind (IRA growth)
• E-commerce logistics (courier segment)

🔴 Threats:

• Intense competition from global players (price pressure)
• Margin compression (outsourcing commoditized)
• Economic slowdown (cost-cutting risk)
• Technological disruption (automation risk)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🔴 LOSS-MAKING, MARGIN EXTREMELY LOW, TURNAROUND IN PROGRESS (RISKY)

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	3,75%	3,65%	3,2%	~3%	→ Stable
Margin Operasi	1,12%	0,38%	-0,5%	Negative	↑ Improving
Margin Bersih	0,22%	0,1%	-0,88%	Negative	↑ Improving but still loss

🔴 TTM margin bersih -0,88% - LOSS overall.

🔴 K3 margin 0,22% - barely profitable, extremely thin (vs industry 8-12%).

✓ Trend improving: Loss area → K3 2025 positive (turnaround visible).

Sustainable?

🟡 UNCERTAIN - DEPENDS ON CATALYSTS:

• INET synergy (cost reduction potential 1-2%)
• WIFI recurring income (margin improvement to 2-3%)
• Operational efficiency (scale benefits)
• If catalysts deliver: Margin to 5-8% possible 2026-2027
• If catalyst fails: Revert to loss likely

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE CASH FLOW, OPERATIONAL BURNING, HIGH RISK

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	(71) Miliar ❌
Capex (TTM)	3 Miliar
FCF (TTM)	(51) Miliar ❌
Financing (TTM)	61 Miliar

🔴 OCF negative Rp (71)M - operational cash burning (major red flag).

🔴 FCF negative Rp (51)M - company losing cash from operations.

⚠️ Company raising cash (Rp 61M financing) - to cover operational burn.

🔴 Unsustainable situation - negative cash burn from operations is critical risk.

Sustainability: NOT SUSTAINABLE CURRENT BASIS

Negative OCF indicates operational model broken or temporary. Either:

1. One-time charges (INET acquisition-related)
2. Working capital timing (receivables collection lag)
3. Operational inefficiency (needs fixing)

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 LOW LEVERAGE, BUT RISING, SOLVENCY OK BUT DETERIORATING

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	0,46x	🟡 Low but rising
Debt/EBITDA	12,3x	🔴 HIGH (12.3x earnings)
Skor Altman	3,36	🟡 SAFE (>2.6) but declining
Interest Coverage	(0,05)	🔴 NEGATIVE (cannot cover)
Net Debt	34 Miliar	🟡 Rising

⚠️ Debt/EBITDA 12,3x - company cannot service debt from earnings (only Rp 12M EBITDA).

🔴 Interest coverage negative - EBIT insufficient to cover interest (sign of stress).

🟡 Altman 3,36 safe zone but declining trend (was higher).

🟡 D/E 0,46x low but rising trajectory concerning.

Conclusion: While leverage absolute low, solvency deteriorating. Debt capacity exists, but profitability must improve for safety.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE RETURNS, DESTROYING VALUE

Metrik	Nilai	Status
ROE	-6,61%	🔴 NEGATIVE
ROA	-2,94%	🔴 NEGATIVE
ROIC	-0,30%	🔴 NEGATIVE

🔴 ROE -6,61% = destroying shareholder value - negative return on capital.

🔴 All returns negative - company losing money on invested capital.

Forward path: If turnaround successful (INET + WIFI catalysts):

• ROE target 10-15% (2027+) potentially achievable
• But requires 3-4x margin expansion (very aggressive assumption)

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🔴 MINIMAL DIVIDEN, CAPITAL DESTRUCTION RISK

Tahun	Dividen	Yield	Payout Ratio
2025	Rp 0,50	0,18%	Limited
2024	Rp 0,50	0,18%	Limited

🔴 Minimal dividen Rp 0,50 - almost nothing (0,18% yield).

🔴 No payout ratio - company cannot afford meaningful dividen (loss-making).

Dividen outlook: Unlikely to grow until profitability normalized (2-3 years+).

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🔴 Loss-making, turnaround in progress	1.5/5
2. Arus Kas	🔴 Negative OCF/FCF, cash burning	1/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 Low leverage, but rising, coverage negative	2.5/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 All negative returns	1/5
5. Dividen	🔴 Minimal, no growth outlook	1/5
RATA-RATA	🔴 POOR	1.4/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi financial distress with turnaround story but unproven - loss-making, negative cash flow, rising leverage, negative returns. Satu-satunya harapan: catalysts (INET acquisition, WIFI partnership) deliver significant margin improvement & operational efficiency gains. High-risk speculation dengan reward potential 2-3 tahun.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 282h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	NEGATIVE	🔴 Loss-making (not applicable)
P/B	7,50x	🔴 EXTREMELY HIGH
P/S	0,87x	🟡 Fair untuk outsourcing
EV/EBITDA	128,51x	🔴 ABSURD
Dividend Yield	0,18%	🔴 Minimal

🔴 OVERALL VALUATION: EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE FOR LOSS-MAKING COMPANY

Fair Value Estimation - Approachesh3

Approach 1: EV/EBITDA Multiple (Conservative)

• EBITDA TTM: Rp 12M
• Fair EV/EBITDA range: 5-7x untuk profitable outsourcing
• Fair EV (if profitable): Rp 12M × 6 = Rp 72M
• Less: Net debt Rp 34M
• Equity value: Rp 72M - Rp 34M = Rp 38M
• Per share: Rp 38M / 3,15B = Rp 12/saham (MASSIVE DISCOUNT)

🔴 Fair value conservative: Rp 10-15 (if normalized profitable).

Approach 2: P/B Multiple (Distress Case)

• Book value: Rp 118M
• Fair P/B range: 0,8-1,0x untuk distressed company
• Fair equity value: Rp 118M × 0,9 = Rp 106M
• Per share: Rp 106M / 3,15B = Rp 34/saham

🟡 P/B approach suggest Rp 30-40 (distress valuation).

Approach 3: DCF - Turnaround Scenario (Optimistic)

Assume successful turnaround:

• Current FCF: (Rp 51)M (negative baseline)
• Turnaround path: FCF normalized to Rp 30M by 2027 (positive assumption)
• FCF growth: 20% CAGR post-normalization
• Terminal growth: 2%
• WACC: 12% (cost of equity high due to risk)

Terminal value: Rp 30M × 1,20^3 × 1,02 / (0,12-0,02) = Rp 52M / 0,10 = Rp 520M PV of terminal: Rp 520M / 1,12^5 = Rp 295M PV of normalization path (2025-2027): Rp 20M Enterprise value: Rp 315M Less net debt: Rp 34M Equity value: Rp 281M / 3,15B = Rp 89/saham

🟡 DCF turnaround scenario: Rp 80-120 (if transformation succeeds).

Kesimpulan Fair Valueh3

Model	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA Conservative	Rp 10-15
P/B Distress	Rp 30-40
DCF Turnaround	Rp 80-120
Consensus Range	Rp 40-100
Current Price	Rp 282
Assessment	🔴 EXTREMELY OVERVALUED

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS Skenario (2-TAHUN FORWARD)h2

Skenario Positif / Bull Case (Probability 25%)h3

Pemicu Optimistis:

• INET acquisition close Q1-Q2 2026, synergy realized rapidly
• WIFI partnership scale successfully, recurring income kicks in
• Margin improve to 8-10% (from 0,22% baseline)
• Profitability normalized (positive earnings)
• P/E re-rate to 12-15x (from loss-making)
• Operational efficiency gains (cost reduction 15-20%)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 1.200-1.500 Miliar
• Margin: 8-10%
• Laba bersih: Rp 100-150 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 30-50
• Fair valuation: P/E 13x → Rp 390-650/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 450-700 (if turnaround succeeds)
• Return: +60% to +148% dalam 2 tahun (HIGH RISK)

Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 40%)h3

Pemicu Realistis:

• INET acquisition close but slow synergy realization
• WIFI partnership gradual ramp
• Margin improve to 3-4% (modest progress)
• Profitability sustainable but low
• P/E 8-10x normalization
• Cash flow remains tight

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 1.100-1.200 Miliar
• Margin: 3-4%
• Laba bersih: Rp 35-50 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 11-16
• Fair valuation: P/E 9x → Rp 99-144/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 120-180
• Return: -57% to -36% dalam 2 tahun (DOWNSIDE)

Skenario Pesimis / Bear Case (Probability 35%)h3

pemicu Pesimistik:

• INET acquisition fails or delayed significantly
• WIFI partnership weak traction (execution issues)
• Margin compress further (competition)
• Profitability deteriorates (revert to loss)
• Debt stress increases (covenant concerns)
• Share dilution (funding needs)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 1.000-1.100 Miliar
• Margin: Negative (-2%)
• Laba bersih: Loss (Rp 20-30 Miliar)
• Share dilution: 20-30%
• Harga Target: Rp 50-100
• Return: -65% to -82%

Expected Value (Probability-Weighted Return)h3

Skenario	Probability	Return	Weighted
Bull Case	25%	+104%	+26%
Base Case	40%	-46,5%	-18,6%
Bear Case	35%	-73,5%	-25,7%
TOTAL EXPECTED RETURN	100%	-26%	-18,3%

🔴 Expected return 2-tahun: -18,3% (probability weighted)

NEGATIVE expected return dengan significant downside risk (average -73% in bear case vs +104% bull upside). Asymmetry strongly UNFAVORABLE.

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif (BUY Signal jika terjadi)h3

1. ✓ INET acquisition close (Q1-Q2 2026) - major de-risking event
2. ✓ WIFI partnership revenue - visible in Q1-Q2 2026 results
3. ✓ Margin improvement trajectory - 1-2% quarterly improvement visible
4. ✓ Positive operating cash flow - return to cash generation
5. ✓ Debt reduction - leverage declining
6. ✓ Profitability target raise - management guidance improvement

Red Flags (EXIT Signals)h3

• 🔴 INET acquisition delayed/fails (strategy in question)
• 🔴 Margin decline (competitive pressure)
• 🔴 Negative cash flow continuation (operational crisis)
• 🔴 Debt covenant warning (financial stress)
• 🔴 Share dilution announcement (existing shareholder value destruction)
• 🔴 Dividen cut/suspended (profit warning)

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 HOLD / AVOID (Currently Overvalued, Wait for Catalysts Clarity)h3

Untuk CALON INVESTOR BARU:

• 🔴 AVOID di Rp 282 - valuation too expensive untuk loss-making company
• 🟡 SPECULATIVE BUY ONLY di Rp 100-150 - if willing to risk significant loss
  • Wait untuk catalyst clarity (INET close, WIFI impact visible)
  • Entry pada weakness (price crash likely if catalysts disappoint)
  • Risk tolerance: VERY HIGH (potential -80% loss)

NOT RECOMMENDED untuk:

• Conservative investor (turnaround risk too high)
• Income seeker (no meaningful dividen)
• Short-term trader (execution takes 2-3 years minimum)
• Risk-averse profile

Investor Profile Cocok:

• Turnaround specialists (willing to hold 2-3 years)
• INET/WIFI partnership believers
• High-risk speculation tolerance
• Patient capital

Untuk INVESTOR EXISTING (sudah pemegang PADA):

• 🟡 HOLD dengan extreme caution
• Set strict stop-loss Rp 150 (major breakdown)
• Profit-taking target Rp 400-600 (only if bull case plays)
• Monitor quarterly catalysts closely

Alternative Entry Pointsh3

Harga	Action	Reason
< Rp 50	BUY	Extreme discount, intrinsic value play
Rp 50-100	ACCUMULATE	Risk/reward improving
Rp 100-150	Speculative BUY	Better entry, waiting for catalysts
Rp 282	AVOID	Currently overvalued for risk profile
Rp 300-400	SELL	If bull case starts, reduce risk
>Rp 400	EXIT ALL	Speculation premium too high

Target Harga (2-Tahun Forward)h3

Periode	Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic
6 Bulan	Rp 80	Rp 180	Rp 350
12 Bulan	Rp 100	Rp 200	Rp 450
24 Bulan	Rp 100	Rp 250	Rp 650

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MONITORING CHECKLIST (QUARTERLY)h2

Critical Metrics:

1. INET acquisition status - close timeline, terms, synergy plans
2. Margin trajectory - improving atau declining trend?
3. Operating cash flow - still negative atau improving?
4. WIFI partnership contribution - revenue visible?
5. Debt & leverage - rising atau declining?
6. Profitability guidance - management confidence?

Annual Key Points:

1. Full year results - margin, profitability, cash flow
2. Catalyst execution - INET close, WIFI ramp
3. Dividen announcement - signal of confidence (unlikely near-term)

EXIT Triggers (SELL if any occur):

• 🔴 INET deal falls through
• 🔴 Margin decline (competitive issues)
• 🔴 OCF remains negative 2+ quarters
• 🔴 Debt covenant warning
• 🔴 Dilutive share offering

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KESIMPULANh2

Ringkasan Risikoh3

🔴 Major Red Flags:

• Loss-making (TTM Rp -8M)
• Negative cash flow (OCF -Rp 71M)
• Extremely low margin (0,22% bersih)
• Rising leverage (debt increasing)
• Negative returns (ROE -6,61%)
• Valuation absurd (P/B 7,50x for loss company)

🟡 Opportunities (Upside Potential):

• INET acquisition (cost synergy 1-2% margin)
• WIFI partnership (recurring income stream)
• Revenue growth strong (+26% YoY)
• Undervalued if turnaround succeeds

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FINAL RATING: 🟡 HOLD / AVOID (Overvalued, High-Risk Turnaround)

Rekomendasi untuk Investor:

PADA adalah risky turnaround speculation dengan dual catalysts (INET + WIFI) but extremely uncertain execution - loss-making company dengan negative cash flow, rising leverage, valued at 7,50x P/B untuk loss situation. Harga Rp 282 adalah OVERVALUED for current risk profile.

Jangan beli pada harga sekarang kecuali:

1. Willing to lose 50-80% capital
2. Confident dalam INET synergy realization
3. Believe WIFI partnership game-changer
4. Can hold 2-3+ tahun patience

Better entry: Rp 100-150 (after market repricing lower).

Investment Thesis (for risk-takers only):

1. Turnaround from loss to profit possible (catalysts clear)
2. INET strategic investor (de-risks execution)
3. WIFI recurring income (margin stabilization)
4. Digital telekomunikasi tailwind (government agenda)

But Risks Overshadow:

• Current profitability unsustainable without catalysts
• Cash burn unsustainable (must stop quickly)
• Leverage rising (debt service risk)
• Valuation leave no margin of safety

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Analisis dibuat 28 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, 9M 2025 official disclosure (Desember 24, 2025), INET acquisition announcement, WIFI partnership (November 13, 2025), dan outsourcing market analysis terbaru.