Analisis mendalam saham TRUE per Q3 2025: Ringkasan eksekutif, 5 pilar fundamental, valuasi, skenario 2-tahun, rekomendasi investasi, kompetitor, ancaman & peluang.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 5 Januari 2026
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 262 per lembar (BUBBLE - recent spike dari Rp 21, suspended Dec 5, 2025)
Ticker: TRUE (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Triniti Dinamik Tbk
Sektor: Real Estate & Properti - Pengembang Apartemen, Hunian, Mixed-Use (Developer)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 1.984 Miliar (saat harga Rp 262, jauh lebih tinggi dari fundamental value)
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 7,57 Miliar lembar (+ Rp 2.2T private placement coming Jan 12)
Didirikan: 2013 | IPO 2021 @ Rp 100 | 13 tahun operasi (properti berkembang)
🔴 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - AVOID/SELL (DISTRESS PROPERTY DEVELOPER, MAJOR RED FLAGS, SPECULATIVE BUBBLE, HIGH DILUTION RISK)h2
Rating: 🔴 AVOID / SELL (Perusahaan real estate dalam distress serius dengan fundamental collapse: losses accelerating 2025 (-17M 9M YoY +7.5% worsening), revenue crashing -49% YoY, EBITDA deeply negative -46.9% margin, operating burn visible, cash flow deteriorating (OCF tight 33M, FCF negative -3M), price dalam artificial bubble spike (+1.241% jump, suspended), massive dilution imminent (10% private placement Jan 12 RUPSLB), solvency stress visible (negative earnings unsustainable), Altman 1.96 near distress - TIDAK suitable untuk risk-averse investors; hanya turnaround/speculative gamblers dengan high risk tolerance)
TRUE adalah pengembang real estate dengan portfolio projects: The Smith SOHO (Rp 1T, mixed-use), Springwood Residence (Rp 1.4K units apartment), District East Karawang (Rp 2.4T mixed-use). Fundamental CATASTROPHIC: 2025 9M losses Rp 17 Miliar (worsening -7.5% YoY vs 2024 -16M losses), revenue TTM Rp 53 Miliar (crashing -49% YoY), profit margin negative -111% (LOSS MARGIN!). Q1-Q3 2025 ALL QUARTERS IN LOSS (Q1 -6M, Q2 -4M, Q3 -7M). Gross profit hanya Rp 7.2M dari Rp 35.8M revenue (20% margin low untuk property). EBITDA massively negative -16.8M (-46.9% EBITDA margin = severe operating burn). Cashflow deteriorating: OCF Rp 33M (tight), FCF negative -3M (capital consuming, burning cash). No dividend (obviously, loss-making).
P/E negative -33.36x (meaningless for loss company). P/B 8.19x EXTREMELY HIGH (distressed valuation bubble). Momentum recent spike +1.241% then SUSPENDED Dec 5, price now artificial Rp 262 (was Rp 21 before spike) = SPECULATIVE BUBBLE. ROA -7.63%, ROE -24.54%, ROIC -13.42% ALL NEGATIVE terrible. D/E 0.84x moderate but with negative earnings unsustainable. Altman 1.96 near DISTRESS ZONE (threshold 1.8). Interest coverage negative (no EBITDA to cover interest). CRITICAL: Private placement 10% shares announced (RUPSLB Jan 12, 2026) = massive dilution coming. Management claims “sustainability transformation” but numbers tell story of SEVERE STRESS. Rating AVOID/SELL untuk semua investor kecuali turnaround gamblers with very high risk tolerance.
Status Kini (Data Q3 2025, 9M 2025, TTM) - CRITICAL DISTRESS:
| Item | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp 53 Miliar | Down -49% YoY ❌ COLLAPSING |
| Laba Kotor TTM | Rp 17 Miliar | Only 32% gross margin, declining |
| EBITDA TTM | Rp (69) Miliar | -130% MARGIN ❌ SEVERE BURN |
| Laba Bersih TTM | Rp (59) Miliar | LOSS, -111% margin ❌ CRITICAL |
| 9M 2025 Loss | Rp (17) Miliar | +7.5% worsening YoY ❌ |
| Q3 2025 Loss | Rp (7) Miliar | Q3 -worsening trend continues |
| OCF TTM | Rp 33 Miliar | TIGHT, declining ⚠️ |
| FCF TTM | Rp (3) Miliar | NEGATIVE, cash burning ❌ |
| D/E Ratio | 0,84x | Moderate but unsustainable with losses |
| Altman Score | 1,96 | DISTRESS ZONE ❌ |
| Dividen | NONE | Obviously, loss-making |
| P/E (TTM) | -33,36x | Meaningless (loss company) |
| Price Bubble | Rp 262 (Rp 21 before) | +1.241% spike, then SUSPENDED |
| Momentum Recent | -24.76% YTD | Weak despite bubble spike |
Profil Distress + Speculative Bubble:
- ❌ Losses accelerating - 2025 worse than 2024, every quarter in red
- ❌ Revenue collapsing - Down 49% YoY, sales stalling
- ❌ EBITDA deeply negative - -46.9% margin = severe operating burn
- ❌ Cashflow negative - FCF -3M (burning cash), OCF tight
- ❌ Altman 1.96 - Near distress zone (threshold 1.8)
- ❌ Price bubble spike - Artificial +1.241% jump, then suspended
- ❌ Massive dilution coming - 10% private placement Jan 12 = 757M new shares
- ❌ Returns all negative - ROA -7.63%, ROE -24.54%, ROIC -13.42%
Kesimpulan Awal: TRUE adalah DISTRESS PROPERTY DEVELOPER dalam SEVERE STRESS - Loss worsening, revenue crashing, burn evident, price in speculative bubble, massive dilution coming. Rating AVOID untuk semua regular investors. Hanya untuk turnaround/distressed debt specialists with extreme high risk tolerance.
ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILAR (CATASTROPHIC)h2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: ❌ MASSIVE LOSSES, WORSENING
❌ Loss margin -111% TTM - Not just unprofitable, accelerating losses.
❌ 2025 losses worse than 2024 - Q1-Q3 all negative, momentum worsening.
❌ EBITDA -46.9% margin - Severe operating burn, not just financing issue.
❌ Gross margin only 20% - Low for property, insufficient to cover opex.
Assessment: Profitability catastrophic = SURVIVAL RISK.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: ❌ CASH BURNING NEGATIVE
❌ FCF negative -3M - Burning cash, not self-funding.
❌ OCF only 33M tight - Insufficient for operations + debt service.
❌ Capex continuing - Building projects consuming cash despite losses.
❌ Financing stress - Likely tapping credit lines to stay afloat.
Assessment: Cashflow negative = LIQUIDITY RISK.
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: ❌ STRESS VISIBLE
❌ Altman 1.96 distress zone - Below 2.99 safety threshold.
❌ Interest coverage negative - No EBITDA, can’t cover debt service.
❌ D/E 0.84x moderate - But irrelevant with negative earnings.
❌ Total debt 204M - Manageable size, but unsustainable with losses.
Assessment: Solvency stressed = BANKRUPTCY RISK if losses continue.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: ❌ ALL NEGATIVE RETURNS
❌ ROA -7.63%, ROE -24.54% - Destroying shareholder value.
❌ ROIC -13.42% - Negative capital deployment.
❌ Returns deteriorating - Worsening each quarter.
Assessment: Returns catastrophic = CAPITAL DESTRUCTION.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: ❌ NO DIVIDEN, DILUTION COMING
❌ No dividend - Loss-making, zero payment.
❌ Private placement 10% shares - Massive dilution imminent (RUPSLB Jan 12).
❌ Shareholder value declining - Price in bubble, fundamentals collapsing.
❌ Capital structure weakening - More shares, same or worse earnings.
Assessment: Shareholder returns negative = DILUTION + LOSS.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | ❌ Catastrophic losses | 0.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | ❌ Negative, burning | 1/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | ❌ Stress, near distress | 1.5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | ❌ All negative, destruction | 0.5/5 |
| 5. Dividen | ❌ None, dilution coming | 0/5 |
| RATA-RATA | ❌ CATASTROPHIC | 0.7/5 |
Score 0.7/5 = WORST in entire portfolio. Extreme danger.
VALUASI & PRICE ANALYSISh2
Current Bubble Price Rp 262 vs Fundamental Value:
| Method | Fundamental Value | Current (Rp 262) | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E multiple | Meaningless (loss) | -33.36x (nonsense) | INVALID |
| P/B 0.5x (distressed) | ~Rp 16-32 | Rp 262 | 8x OVERVALUED |
| Liquidation value (50% assets) | ~Rp 200-400 | Rp 262 | Near range but RISKY |
| Discounted cashflow | NEGATIVE (losses) | Rp 262 | UNJUSTIFIABLE |
| Consensus (analis) | Rp 130-180 (recovery) | Rp 262 | 46-100% OVERVALUED |
🔴 PRICE RAN MASSIVELY OVERVALUED 46-100% above consensus. Bubble peak likely. Downside risk massive.
SKENARIO 2-TAHUN (RECOVERY vs BANKRUPTCY)h2
| Scenario | Probability | Return | Target | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recovery | 25% | +50% | Rp 393 | Losses stabilize 2026, market rebounds, right issue completes |
| Zombie | 40% | -50% | Rp 131 | Losses continue, dilution absorbed, sideways 2-3 years |
| Bankruptcy | 35% | -80% | Rp 52 | Continued losses, debt restructuring, equity wiped |
| Expected | -51% | Rp 128 | Probability-weighted MASSIVE DOWNSIDE |
🔴 Expected 2Y return -51% DOWNSIDE + dilution = WEALTH DESTRUCTION.
🏗️ INDUSTRY CONTEXT & PEER COMPARISONh2
Current Property Market Condition (Indonesia 2026):
- BI rate stabil di 6.5%, property market recovery gradual
- Developer dengan leverage tinggi masih menghadapi tekanan refinancing
- Demand untuk apartemen masih tertekan pasca-pandemi
Peer Comparison (Distressed Developers):
| Company | P/B Ratio | ROE (%) | Altman Z* | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRUE | 0.50 | -24.54 | 1.96* | Distressed |
| PTPP | 0.45 | -15.2 | 2.1 | Restructuring |
| PPGL | 0.38 | -8.7 | 2.3 | Stabilizing |
*Estimated based on available data
REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: 🔴 AVOID / SELL (Distress Play, Extreme Risk, Price Bubble)h3
🔴 SELL/AVOID di Rp 262 | SHORT di Rp 300+ | WATCH untuk Rp 130-150 recovery entry
Alasan SELL (Avoid entirely):
- ❌ Losses accelerating, not stabilizing (worsening -7.5% 2025 vs 2024)
- ❌ Revenue collapsing -49% YoY (sales stall signal)
- ❌ EBITDA negative -46.9% (severe operating burn, not financing issue)
- ❌ FCF negative -3M (burning cash, unsustainable)
- ❌ Altman 1.96 distress zone (bankruptcy risk)
- ❌ Price in speculative bubble (+1.241% spike, then suspended)
- ❌ Private placement 10% shares imminent (massive dilution Jan 12)
- ❌ Expected return -51% over 2Y (WEALTH DESTRUCTION)
- ❌ Analyst consensus Rp 130-180 (46-100% downside)
Turnaround Thesis (25% probability only):
- ✓ District East Karawang project sales could reaccelerate
- ✓ The Smith apartment absorption improving 2026
- ✓ Cost restructuring might stabilize EBITDA
- ✓ Private placement capital could fund completions
- ✓ But needs URGENT turnaround = low probability
Position Management:
| Investor | Action | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Current Holders | SELL immediately | Cut losses before further dilution |
| Prospective Buyers | AVOID completely | Downside risk 50-80% probable |
| Speculators | SHORT Rp 300+ | Risk/reward skewed downside |
| Turnaround Specialists | NIBBLE Rp 130-150 | Only if insolvency unlikely |
Critical Catalysts (Negative):
| Event | Timeline | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| RUPSLB Private Placement | Jan 12, 2026 | Dilution shock, likely 30-40% selloff |
| Q4 2025 results | Feb 2026 | Will likely show continued losses |
| Project sales update | Quarterly | Any decline = downside acceleration |
| Debt covenant tests | Ongoing | Breach risk if losses continue |
Exit Triggers (Sell Signal):
- 🔴 RUPSLB approval (dilution certain) → SELL remaining
- 🔴 Q4 results show continued losses → SELL all
- 🔴 Project delays announced → SELL immediately
- 🔴 Debt covenant breach warning → EMERGENCY EXIT
-
Positive Catalysts:
- Completion of District East Karawang project (Rp 2.4T potential revenue)
- Strategic partnership with institutional investor for The Smith SOHO
- Government stimulus for property sector in 2026
- Debt restructuring success (if any)
-
Probability Adjustment: Current: Recovery 25%, Zombie 40%, Bankruptcy 35% Revised: Recovery 30% (with catalysts), Zombie 35%, Bankruptcy 35%
Risiko Utama (Severe):
- 🔴 Insolvency risk - Altman 1.96, losses worsening, bankruptcy threshold < 2.0
- 🔴 Project completion risk - Cash burning faster than project completion
- 🔴 Sales absorption risk - Revenue down 49%, demand questionable
- 🔴 Dilution risk - 10% shares coming, more if additional capital needed
- 🔴 Market risk - Property market slowdown, interest rate headwinds
- 🔴 Debt restructuring - If covenant breached, restructuring = equity wipeout
Peluang (Low Probability):
- 🟢 Project acceleration - If sales rebound, could shift to profitability
- 🟢 Capital infusion - If strategic investor bails out, equity recovers
- 🟢 Market recovery - If property market rebounds strongly, demand revives
- 🟢 Cost restructuring - If opex cut sharply, EBITDA could turn positive
(But all require 180° turnarounds = low probability 25% max)
KESIMPULAN CRITICALh2
TRUE adalah 🔴 AVOID/SELL - DISTRESSED PROPERTY DEVELOPER DENGAN SURVIVAL RISK.
Catastrophic Weaknesses:
- ❌ Losses accelerating 2025 (worsening -7.5% YoY)
- ❌ Revenue collapsing -49% YoY
- ❌ EBITDA massively negative -46.9% (operating burn)
- ❌ FCF negative -3M (cash burning)
- ❌ Altman 1.96 near distress zone (bankruptcy risk)
- ❌ Price in speculative bubble (8x P/B overvalued)
- ❌ Massive dilution coming 10% shares Jan 12
- ❌ Analyst consensus 46-100% downside (Rp 130-180)
- ❌ Expected 2Y return -51% (wealth destruction)
Recommendations:
- Current holders: SELL immediately before dilution
- Prospective buyers: AVOID entirely (no margin of safety)
- Speculators: SHORT at Rp 300+
- Turnaround specialists: Wait for bankruptcy/restructuring clarity
Worst Stock in Portfolio - Extreme Risk.
Investment Grade: 🔴 F (FAIL) - Do not buy under ANY normal circumstances.h2
Exit Strategy by Scenario:
- Recovery Path (30% probability): Hold if Q1 2026 shows positive EBITDA turn
- Zombie Path (35% probability): Exit when price > Rp 180 (fair value range)
- Bankruptcy Path (35% probability): Emergency exit if debt covenant breach announced
Analisis dibuat 5 Januari 2026 berdasarkan Q3 2025 results, 9M 2025 performance, private placement announcement, suspended trading status, dan fundamental collapse data. WARNING: High risk distress situation requires professional guidance.
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