RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Pakuan Tbk (UANG) adalah distressed micro-cap real estate company dengan fundamental yang sangat mengkhawatirkan. Meskipun memiliki growth story menarik (revenue naik 221% YoY), perusahaan sebenarnya LOSS dengan net loss TTM Rp -32 Miliar, negative cash flow, negative ROE, dan tidak mampu bayar bunga utang (interest coverage negatif). Saham ini sedang dimanipulasi oleh insider trading activities (Happy Hapsoro membeli di Rp 467 tapi saham naik jadi Rp 4.500 = 864% dalam sebulan).

Red Flags Kritis:

• Net Income: -Rp 32B (losing money, bukan profitabel)
• Operating Cash Flow: -Rp 60B (burning cash!)
• Free Cash Flow: -Rp 50B (cannot fund operations)
• Interest Coverage: -26.11x (cannot pay interest on debt!)
• ROE: -10.94% (destroying shareholder value)
• Dividend Payout Ratio: -20.05% (paying from cash reserves, unsustainable!)
• Debt-to-Equity: 1.94x (high leverage with losses)
• Altman Z-Score: 1.34 (distressed zone)

The Trap: Saham naik karena insider buying, BUKAN karena fundamental improve. Growth 221% revenue tapi tetap rugi = bisnis model broken.

Rekomendasi: JANGAN BELI. JIKA SUDAH OWN, SELL SEKARANG.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA DISTRESS SIGNALSh2

Data dari KeyStats Q3 2025h3

Semua data terverifikasi dari KeyStats dan menunjukkan critical distress indicators:

Valuation Metrics (Meaningless - All Negative):

• PER TTM: -191.92x ❌ (earnings negative)
• PBV: 20.99x ⚠️ (extreme premium for distressed company)
• P/S: 44.03x ⚠️ (extreme for Rp 140B revenue only)
• EV/EBITDA: -121.00x ❌ (negative, meaningless)
• Interest Coverage: -26.11x ❌ (CANNOT PAY INTEREST!)

Financial Position (TTM) - Critical:

• Revenue: Rp 140 Miliar (tiny!)
• Net Income: -Rp 32 Miliar (LOSS!)
• EBITDA: Rp 66 Miliar (barely positive)
• Operating Cash Flow: -Rp 60 Miliar (NEGATIVE!)
• Free Cash Flow: -Rp 50 Miliar (NEGATIVE!)

Profitability (All Destroyed):

• Gross Margin: 51.58% (OK, but…)
• Operating Margin: 4.16% (wafer thin!)
• Net Margin: 7.69% (misleading - TTM is loss)
• ROE: -10.94% (destroying capital!)
• ROA: -1.98% (negative!)

Solvency (Alarming):

• Current Ratio: 1.37x (OK on paper but misleading)
• Debt-to-Equity: 1.94x (HIGH)
• Total Liabilities/Equity: 3.82x (DANGEROUS!)
• Altman Z-Score: 1.34 (DISTRESSED)
• Equity Only Rp 294B (tiny, vs liabilities Rp 1.122T = 4x!)

Dividend Red Flag:

• Paying Rp 8.26/share dividend while losing money!
• Payout Ratio: -20.05% (negative = paying from cash reserves!)
• EPS TTM: -Rp 26.57 (negative earnings!)
• This is UNSUSTAINABLE

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TAHAP 2: BISNIS CONTEXT & WHY LOSSES DESPITE GROWTHh2

Business Profileh3

PT Pakuan Tbk (UANG) adalah bagian dari Vasanta Group, pengembang real estate yang fokus pada:

1. Shila at Sawangan Township

   • 700 rumah sudah dibangun (sejak 2021)
   • 102 hektar lahan, target 1.000 rumah
   • Partnership dengan Mitsubishi, Lotte Land Korea, Sinarmas
   • Revenue dari penjualan rumah & komersial

2. Planned Expansions (3 mega projects)

   • 3 Rumah Sakit (Jakarta Barat, Selatan, Jawa Barat)
   • Tech Industrial Complex (Karawang)
   • Data Center (inside tech industrial)
   • All in partnership mode dengan investor asing

3. Status:

   • Micro-cap (Market Cap Rp 6.171T)
   • Revenue base very small (Rp 140B TTM)
   • Pre-profitability stage despite revenue growth

Why Revenue Growing 221% But Still Losing Money?h3

Root Causes:

1. Heavy Pre-launch Capex

   • Massive land purchases + development for future projects
   • Hospitals, tech industrial, data center = huge capex
   • These are expensed, not capitalized

2. Partnership Structure

   • Joint ventures dilute profits
   • Partnership agreements may front-load costs, back-load revenues
   • Integration costs from multiple partnerships

3. Scale Economics Not Achieved

   • At Rp 140B revenue, cannot cover operating expenses
   • Fixed costs (management, overhead) too high for scale
   • Need 3-5x higher revenue to breakeven

4. Timing Issue

   • Shila sales ramping but infrastructure investment heavy
   • Hospital projects in design phase (no revenue yet)
   • Typical developer pattern but UANG too small to carry losses

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TAHAP 3: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - WHY THIS IS DISTRESSEDh2

Cash Burn Realityh3

TTM Numbers:

Operating Cash Flow:     -Rp 60 Miliar (BURNING CASH)
Free Cash Flow:          -Rp 50 Miliar (CANNOT FUND OPS)
Cash Position:           Rp 145 Miliar (DWINDLING)

At this burn rate:
Cash depletes in ~3 quarters if not improved

Debt Service Crisis:

• Total Debt: Rp 569 Miliar
• Interest Coverage: NEGATIVE (-26.11x)
• Cannot pay interest from operations
• Must use cash reserves or refinance

Operating Crisis:

Revenue:                 Rp 140 Miliar
Operating Expenses:      ~Rp 130+ Miliar (implied)
→ Operating margin wafer thin 4.16%
→ Already losing money on net basis

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Solvency Red Flagsh3

Debt Structure:

• Total Debt: Rp 569 Miliar (78% of market cap!)
• Long-term: Rp 528 Miliar
• Short-term: Rp 41 Miliar
• Equity only: Rp 294 Miliar (51% of market cap)

Leverage Metrics:

• DER: 1.94x (vs safe < 0.80x)
• Total Liabilities/Equity: 3.82x (dangerous)
• Debt/Market Cap: 0.78 (extremely high)
• Financial Leverage: 5.53x (dangerous)

Distress Indicator:

• Altman Z-Score: 1.34 (below 1.8 = distress zone)
• Previous analysis suggests potential bankruptcy risk if deteriorate further

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TAHAP 4: THE INSIDER TRADING MANIPULATIONh2

Recent Share Price Dynamics (October-November 2025)h3

Timeline:

Sept 3, 2025:   Happy Hapsoro buys 196.4M shares @ Rp 467 = Rp 91.8B
                → Becomes 16.24% shareholder

Sept 3 → Oct 11: Stock rallies from Rp 467 → Rp 7.000+ (1.400% gain!)
                 → Major pump

Oct 14:         Stock crashes hard, auto reject bawah (ARB) to Rp 3.110
                → Dump begins

Nov 7:          Hapsoro buys AGAIN 234.1M shares @ Rp 467 = Rp 109.4B
                → Becomes 19.35% shareholder (increased stake!)
                → INSIDER ACCUMULATION SIGNAL

Nov 12:         Stock rallies to Rp 4.220 (+155% in 5 days!)
                → Current Rp 4.500 range

Total Move:     Rp 467 (Hapsoro entry) → Rp 4.500 (current) = +864%!

Interpretationh3

What’s Happening:

1. Coordinated Insider Buying

   • Hapsoro buying at Rp 467 (knows valuation cheap)
   • Buying 19.35% stake shows strategic commitment
   • BUT this is classic accumulation before big announcement

2. Price Manipulation Pattern

   • Cheap insider entry (Rp 467)
   • Stock pumped to Rp 7.000+ (retail attention)
   • Insider holds, small cap illiquid
   • Price now Rp 4.500 = still 9.6x above insider entry

3. Why Hapsoro Buying?

   • See value in mega projects (hospitals, data center)
   • Possibly will invest more capital / renegotiate terms
   • NOT because fundamentals suddenly improved
   • Distressed entry for restructuring/turnaround candidate

Critical Point: Insider buying at dirt-cheap price (Rp 467) is NOT bullish for retail buyers at Rp 4.500. It means insider knows real value much lower, buying for long-term turnaround (5-10 years), NOT expecting quick profits.

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TAHAP 5: DIVIDEND TRAP WARNINGh2

The Unsustainable Dividendh3

Current Dividend:

• Dividend Per Share: Rp 8.26 (ex-date 27 Jun 24, paid 18 Jul 24)
• Annual Dividend Yield: 0.16% at current Rp 4.500
• BUT company losing money!

The Trap:

EPS TTM:                -Rp 26.57 (NEGATIVE!)
Payout Ratio:           -20.05% (NEGATIVE = paying from reserves!)
Dividend Sustainability: ZERO

What This Means:

• Company has NO earnings to pay dividend from
• Paying dividend from cash reserves (depleting equity)
• Sustainable for maybe 1-2 more quarters at current burn rate
• Will likely suspend dividend when cash runs out
• Stock will crash 30-50% on dividend cut announcement

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TAHAP 6: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: SELL / STRONG AVOIDh3

This is NOT a recovery candidate. This is a distressed micro-cap with:

• ✗ Negative earnings
• ✗ Negative cash flow
• ✗ High leverage
• ✗ Cannot pay interest
• ✗ Tiny revenue base
• ✗ Unsustainable dividend
• ✗ Insider trading pump pattern

Current Price Rp 4.500 is NOT justified for company with:

• Rp 140B revenue
• -Rp 32B net income
• -Rp 50B FCF
• Rp 569B debt
• Rp 294B equity

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Fair Value Estimatesh3

Scenario	Price	Basis
Liquidation Value	Rp 200-400	Asset value after debt payoff
Distressed Sale	Rp 300-600	Quick sale, 50-70% haircut
Turnaround (3-5yr)	Rp 1.500-2.500	If all mega projects succeed
Current Market	Rp 4.500	Insider manipulation zone

Downside from Current: -95% to -91%

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Action Planh3

If You Own UANG:

• ❌ SELL immediately (don’t wait for further deterioration)
• Don’t hold for turnaround (too risky, leverage too high)
• Lock in any gains if bought before Sept surge

If Considering Buying:

• ❌ DO NOT BUY at Rp 4.500
• This is not a value investment, it’s a distressed spec
• If you believe in turnaround thesis: wait for Rp 500-700 crash
• But even then, high execution risk

Red Lines Not to Cross:

• Do NOT buy micro-cap with negative earnings + high leverage
• Do NOT buy paying dividend while losing money
• Do NOT buy company burning cash + debt service risk
• Do NOT follow insider buying as retail (timing risk too high)

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KESIMPULANh2

Investment Thesis: FAILEDh3

UANG is a failed investment thesis wrapped in growth story PR.

Real facts:

• Losing money despite 221% revenue growth
• Cannot generate cash from operations
• Cannot pay interest on debt
• Paying unsustainable dividend from cash reserves
• Micro-cap illiquid with insider dominance
• Leveraged restructuring play, not value stock

This is NOT:

• Value opportunity (negative fundamentals)
• Growth story (losing money at growing revenue)
• Dividend play (unsustainable)
• Recovery candidate (too much debt, too small scale)

This IS:

• Distressed micro-cap
• Insider accumulation play
• Cash-burn-dependent on financing
• Extreme speculation (not investment)
• Potential bankruptcy candidate if financing dries up

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FINAL VERDICTh2

❌ AVOID UANG AT ALL COSTSh3

Current price Rp 4.500 does NOT reflect fundamental distress. Stock is trading on:

1. Insider accumulation news (Hapsoro buying)
2. Mega project hype (hospitals, data center)
3. Micro-cap retail buying (FOMO)

NOT on improved fundamentals (which are terrible).

Next catalysts likely NEGATIVE:

• Dividend cut or suspension (cash depletion)
• Debt covenant breach risk
• Capital raise dilution (if needed)
• Mega project delays / cancellations

This is classic PUMP before DUMP pattern with retail trapped at top.

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Recommendation: SELL / AVOID - Do not speculate on distressed micro-caps with negative fundamentals

Disclaimer: Analisis berdasarkan KeyStats Q3 2025. UANG adalah micro-cap dengan karakteristik micro-cap (illiquidity, insider dominance, high volatility). Tidak untuk retail investors. Risiko total loss sangat tinggi.