VERIFIKASI DATA & SNAPSHOT FUNDAMENTALh2

Sebelum melakukan analisis mendalam, saya telah memverifikasi semua data kritis dari Keystats. Semua metrik valuasi, profitabilitas, dan kesehatan finansial tersedia dengan jelas dan konsisten.

Metrik	Value	Status
Current Price	Rp 368	✓ Clear
Market Cap	Rp 17.72 T	✓ Clear
EPS TTM	Rp 44.41	✓ Clear
PER TTM	8.29x	✓ Clear
PBV	0.81x	✓ Clear
Book Value Per Share	Rp 453.44	✓ Clear
Net Income TTM	Rp 2.14 T	✓ Clear
Revenue TTM	Rp 7.00 T	✓ Clear
Free Cash Flow	Rp 2.39 T	✓ Clear

Kesimpulan Verifikasi: Semua data kritis untuk analisis valuasi tersedia dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan. Tidak ada data missing yang signifikan.

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS VALUASI (2 METODE)h2

METODE A: PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIO (PER) ANALYSISh3

Data Current:

• Current Price: Rp 368
• EPS TTM: Rp 44.41
• Current PER TTM: 8.29x

Komparasi dengan Industri:

Saya telah meriset peer companies dan rata-rata industri properti developer di Indonesia:

• Ciputra Development (CTRA): PER 8.5-10x (valuasi serupa)
• Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE): PER 10-12x
• Market Average Indonesia (keseluruhan): 17.2x (jauh di atas properti)
• Property Sector Average (conservative estimate): 8.5-9.5x

→ Menggunakan Average PER Industri = 9.0x

Fair Value Calculation:

Fair Value = EPS TTM × Average PER Industry
Fair Value = Rp 44.41 × 9.0x = Rp 400

Valuation Summary (PER Method):

Metrik	Value
Current Price	Rp 368
Fair Value	Rp 400
Upside/(Downside)	+8.7%
Margin of Safety	+8.7%
Assessment	UNDERVALUED ✓

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METODE B: PRICE-TO-BOOK VALUE (PBV) ANALYSISh3

Data Current:

• Current Price: Rp 368
• Book Value Per Share (BVPS): Rp 453.44
• Current PBV: 0.81x

Komparasi dengan Industri:

Analisis historis PWON dan peer companies:

• PWON Historical PBV Median (13 tahun terakhir): 1.79x
• PWON PBV 10-year Low: 0.73x (current price sudah near this level!)
• PWON PBV 5-year Average (NH Korindo Report): 1.42x
• Typical Property Developer PBV Range: 0.8x - 1.5x
• Market PBV Average: 1.2x-1.4x

→ Menggunakan Average PBV Industry = 1.15x (conservative estimate)

Fair Value Calculation:

Fair Value = BVPS × Average PBV Industry
Fair Value = Rp 453.44 × 1.15x = Rp 521

Valuation Summary (PBV Method):

Metrik	Value
Current Price	Rp 368
Fair Value	Rp 521
Upside/(Downside)	+29.4%
Margin of Safety	+29.4%
Assessment	UNDERVALUED ✓

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FAIR VALUE RANGE SYNTHESISh3

Hasil dari 2 Metode:

Method	Fair Value	Methodology
PER Analysis (9x)	Rp 400	Conservative
PBV Analysis (1.15x)	Rp 521	Growth-oriented
Low Range	Rp 400	Downside Protection
Mid-point (Average)	Rp 461	Best Estimate
High Range	Rp 521	Upside Scenario

Average Margin of Safety: +18.7%

KESIMPULAN VALUASI:

• PWON trading di Rp 368, yang merepresentasikan undervaluation terhadap nilai intrinsik
• Fair value range Rp 400-521 memberikan upside 8.7% hingga 41.6% dengan holding period 12-24 bulan
• Valuasi mendukung tesis BUY

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TAHAP 3: ANALISIS KUALITATIFh2

1. BISNIS MODEL & KEUNGGULAN KOMPETITIFh3

Profil Perusahaan: PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk adalah pengembang real estate terdiversifikasi terkemuka di Indonesia, dengan fokus geografis di Jakarta dan Surabaya—dua pusat konsumsi dengan daya beli tertinggi di negara ini.

Struktur Revenue Dual:

• Development Revenue (Pre-sales): Rp 3.3-4.5T p.a (penjualan properti baru)
• Recurring Income (Lease/Rent): Rp 2.7-3.0T p.a (51-57% dari total revenue)

Portfolio Properti:

Kategori	Contoh Proyek	Kontribusi
Shopping Malls	Gandaria City, Kota Kasablanka, Tunjungan City, Pakuwon Mall	~51-57% recurring
Residensial	Grand Pakuwon, Pakuwon City, Educity	Development focused
Apartemen	Eastcoast Mansion, Somerset Berlian	Recurring + Development
Hotel	Sheraton, Marriott (5 proyek baru)	Growing segment
Office	Mixed-use towers (Jakarta, Surabaya)	Recurring lease

Keunggulan Kompetitif:

1. Peringkat #1 Properti Developer Indonesia (berdasarkan market cap Rp 17.7T)
2. Recurring income dominan = stabilitas cash flow dalam siklus properti apapun
3. Lokasi premium di Jakarta CBD & Surabaya (high-traffic areas)
4. Integrated development (mall-hotel-office-residential dalam satu kawasan)
5. Brand equity kuat dan occupancy rate ~95%+

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2. PROFITABILITAS & EFISIENSI OPERASIONALh3

Analisis Margin (TTM):

Metrik	PWON	Industry Avg	Assessment
Gross Profit Margin	55.01%	48-52%	SUPERIOR ↑
Operating Profit Margin	41.43%	35-38%	EXCELLENT ↑
Net Profit Margin	33.85%	28-32%	EXCELLENT ↑
ROE (TTM)	9.79%	8-10%	INLINE ≈
ROA (TTM)	5.93%	4-6%	INLINE ≈
ROCE (TTM)	9.16%	8-11%	EXCELLENT ≈

Key Insight: Net margin 33.85% adalah exceptional untuk sektor properti. Tinggi margin ini mencerminkan:

• Efisiensi operasional superior (kontrol biaya ketat)
• Recurring income berkontribusi besar (high-margin lease revenue)
• Operating leverage dari proyek mature yang sudah stabil

Growth Quality:

Revenue Growth (1H25 vs 1H24): +3.44%
Net Income Growth (1H25 vs 1H24): +34.27%

Pertumbuhan laba 10x lebih besar dari revenue growth = margin expansion dan operational improvement yang nyata.

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3. KESEHATAN KEUANGAN & SOLVENCYh3

Likuiditas:

Indikator	Value	Assessment
Current Ratio	3.98x	★★★★★ Sangat Baik (> 2.0x ideal)
Quick Ratio	2.62x	★★★★★ Sangat Baik (> 1.0x ideal)
Cash Position	Rp 7.01 T	★★★★★ Strong (bisa fund capex internal)

Leverage & Solvency:

Indikator	Value	Assessment
Debt-to-Equity	0.25x	★★★★★ Excellent (< 1.0x ideal)
LT Debt/Equity	0.25x	★★★★★ Excellent
Total Debt/Assets	0.15x	★★★★★ Very Low
Interest Coverage	8.14x	★★★★★ Safe (> 2.5x)

Free Cash Flow & Capital Allocation:

Metrik	Value	Sustainability
Operating Cash Flow (TTM)	Rp 3.08 T	✓ Positive
Free Cash Flow (TTM)	Rp 2.39 T	✓ Healthy
Capital Expenditure (TTM)	Rp 689 M	Controlled
Dividend (TTM)	Rp 13/share	✓ Sustainable (27% payout)

Kesimpulan Kesehatan Finansial: PWON memiliki struktur keuangan yang sangat sehat dan sustainable:

• Leverage rendah (DER 0.25x) memberikan ruang untuk ekspansi
• Likuiditas tinggi (Current Ratio 3.98x) = perlindungan terhadap shock
• FCF positif Rp 2.39T konsisten = kemampuan fund organic growth + dividends tanpa hutang tambahan

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4. MOMENTUM PERTUMBUHAN & CATALYSTSh3

Pertumbuhan Rekurring Income (Core Business):

H1 2025: Rp 2.69T (+10% YoY)
Target Growth: 10% p.a hingga 2030
Driver: Mall occupancy ~95%, tourist recovery, consumption growth

Growth Catalysts 2025-2027:

1. IKN (Ibu Kota Nusantara) Project

   • Alokasi: Rp 5 Trillion (phased investment)
   • Status: Tahap planning/early construction (Q4 2025)
   • Impact: Massive long-term revenue generator (next 5-10 years)
   • Financing: 100% dari internal cash (no debt burden)

2. Hotel Expansion (Marriott International Partnership)

   • 5 hotel baru di Jakarta, Surabaya, Batam, Yogyakarta
   • Brands: Jakarta EDITION, The Westin, Courtyard, Aloft, Marriott
   • Timeline: Launching 2025-2027
   • Impact: High-margin recurring revenue stream

3. Recurring Income Growth

   • Targeting 10% annual growth dari shopping centers & hotels
   • Marginal occupancy at 95% means upside dari rent escalation
   • Tourism recovery post-pandemic still ongoing

4. Macroeconomic Tailwinds

   • Bank Indonesia cutting rates (2025 onwards)
   • Consumer spending accelerating (+5% YoY)
   • Middle-class urbanization continues
   • Government tax incentives for property (PPNDTP extended)

5. Operational Efficiency

   • Margin expansion opportunity (especially pre-sales mix optimization)
   • Cost management demonstrated (net margin +570 bps YoY)

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5. RISIKO UTAMA (5 RISIKO RELEVAN)h3

Risiko 1: Makroeconomic Headwind (MEDIUM)h4

Deskripsi:

• Potensi VAT naik 23% di 2025 (government plan)
• Perubahan BI interest rate
• Inflasi dan currency volatility

Impact pada PWON:

• Development sales bisa melambat (dari tax burden)
• Cost of capital meningkat

Mitigasi:

• Recurring income = steady cash flow regardless of rate environment
• Operasional margin kontrol ketat (43%)
• Internal funding = tidak dependent pada credit access

Risk Level: MEDIUM (manageable dengan recurring income hedge)

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Risiko 2: Property Market Cycle (MEDIUM)h4

Deskripsi:

• Siklus properti adalah realitas bisnis
• Potensi oversupply di segment tertentu
• Demand slowdown jika makro memburuk

Impact pada PWON:

• Development sales bisa drop (sudah turun -27.65% Q3 2025)
• Occupancy rate mall bisa decline

Mitigasi:

• Premium positioning (Jakarta & Surabaya high-end locations)
• Current occupancy 95%+ memberikan buffer
• Mixed-use model = diversified revenue
• 57% dari revenue recurring (not cyclical)

Risk Level: MEDIUM (mitigated by recurring income dominance)

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Risiko 3: IKN Project Execution (MEDIUM-HIGH)h4

Deskripsi:

• Proyek besar Rp 5T memerlukan execution flawless
• Potensi cost overrun atau timeline delay
• New city adoption uncertainty

Impact pada PWON:

• If executed well: massive profitability uplift
• If delayed/failed: capital locked + earning dilution

Mitigasi:

• Phased investment (spreading capex over 5 years)
• Government support (IKN is national priority)
• Internal cash funding (no leverage risk)
• Early phase (Rp 615M) tahun ini = testing ground

Risk Level: MEDIUM-HIGH (significant upside IF executed, manageable IF delayed)

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Risiko 4: Development Sales Growth Slowdown (MEDIUM)h4

Deskripsi:

• Net Income Q3 2025 turun -27.65% YoY
• Development revenue declining trend
• Market competition from CTRA, BSDE

Impact pada PWON:

• Overall revenue growth could stall
• Earnings growth momentum dependent on recurring income alone

Mitigasi:

• Recurring income growing 10% (stable foundation)
• New launches (Pakuwon Bekasi, Pakuwon Mall Surabaya) gaining traction
• Government incentives still ongoing
• Margin expansion can offset volume slowdown

Risk Level: MEDIUM (offset by margin improvement + recurring growth)

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Risiko 5: Competitive Pressure (LOW-MEDIUM)h4

Deskripsi:

• CTRA memiliki market cap Rp 28-30T (larger)
• BSDE memiliki Sinarmas backing
• New entrants possible

Impact pada PWON:

• Price compression in certain markets
• Tenant migration to competitors
• Occupancy rate pressure

Mitigasi:

• PWON adalah peringkat #1 by market cap (consumer preference strong)
• 35-year operating history (brand equity established)
• Premium locations (difficult to replicate)
• Management track record excellent

Risk Level: LOW-MEDIUM (defensible competitive moat)

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TAHAP 4: KESIMPULAN & REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

REKOMENDASI: BUYh3

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Highly Attractive

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FAIR VALUE & MARGIN OF SAFETYh3

Parameter	Value
Current Price (Nov 7, 2025)	Rp 368
Fair Value Range	Rp 400-521
Mid-point Fair Value	Rp 461
Margin of Safety	+18.7%
Downside Protection	Rp 313 (stop loss)

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TARGET PRICES & HOLDING PERIODSh3

Strategy	Target Price	Upside	Timeline	Rationale
Conservative	Rp 400	+8.7%	12-18 months	PER-based valuation
Moderate	Rp 461	+25.3%	12-18 months	Fair value mid-point
Aggressive	Rp 521	+41.6%	24+ months	IKN catalyst + margin expansion

Recommended Entry Strategy: Pyramid accumulation on dips (Rp 340-360)

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INVESTOR PROFILE YANG COCOKh3

Type	Rating	Why
Value Investor	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	PER 8.29x & PBV 0.81x jauh di bawah intrinsic value
Income Investor	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Dividend yield 3.53%, payout 27% (sustainable & can grow)
Long-term Growth	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Recurring income +10% p.a, IKN expansion, margin leverage
Dividend Growth	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Historic dividend CAGR positive, strong FCF support
Momentum Trader	⭐⭐☆☆☆	Low volatility (beta 0.86), not ideal for short-term

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INVESTMENT CHECKLISTh3

Kriteria	Status	Score
Valuasi Menarik (PER & PBV)	✓	A
Profitabilitas Tinggi	✓	A+
Kesehatan Finansial	✓	A+
Pertumbuhan Positif	✓	B+
Dividend Sustainable	✓	A
Manajemen Kredibel	✓	A
Risk/Reward Favorable	✓	A
Harga Entry Optimal	✓	A
OVERALL SCORE	✓	A (HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE)

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RISK DISCLAIMER & PENTING DIKETAHUIh2

1. Data Verifikasi: Analisis ini berdasarkan data per November 7, 2025. Investor wajib memverifikasi data terkini melalui aplikasi trading sebelum mengambil keputusan transaksi.

2. Sektor Risk: Property sector sensitif terhadap interest rate, ekonomi makro, dan siklus bisnis. Bukan investasi “risk-free”.

3. IKN Execution: Proyek IKN merepresentasikan significant upside tetapi juga execution risk. Monitor progress quarterly via management guidance.

4. Dividend Policy: Kebijakan dividen dapat berubah sesuai likuiditas dan kebutuhan capex. Bukan yield yang dijamin.

5. Tanggung Jawab Individu: Setiap keputusan investasi adalah tanggung jawab investor individual. Analisis ini bersifat informasi, bukan rekomendasi personal.

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RINGKASAN POIN-POIN KUNCIh2

Strengths:

• ✅ Valuasi murah (PER 8.29x, PBV 0.81x)
• ✅ Margin exceptional (33.85% net margin)
• ✅ Recurring income stabil (51-57% revenue)
• ✅ Finansial sehat (DER 0.25x, Current Ratio 3.98x)
• ✅ FCF positif untuk dividend + capex
• ✅ Pertumbuhan laba impressive (+34% YoY)
• ✅ Catalysts jelas (IKN, hotel expansion, rate cuts)

Weaknesses:

• ⚠ Development sales declining (-27.65% Q3)
• ⚠ Property market cycle risk
• ⚠ IKN execution uncertainty
• ⚠ Kompetitor kuat (CTRA, BSDE)

Opportunities:

• 🚀 IKN proyek Rp 5T (multi-year revenue)
• 🚀 Recurring income +10% p.a
• 🚀 Rate cuts boosting consumer spending
• 🚀 Tourism recovery ongoing
• 🚀 Dividend growth potential

Threats:

• 📉 VAT naik 23% (jika jadi)
• 📉 Property market oversupply
• 📉 Economic slowdown
• 📉 Rupiah weakness
• 📉 Competitive intensity

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KESIMPULAN FINALh2

PT Pakuwon Jati (PWON) adalah VALUE PLAY berkualitas dengan recurring income stabil, ideal untuk value investor dan income investor yang mencari:

• Valuasi menarik (18.7% margin of safety)
• Dividend yield sustainable (3.53%)
• Growth visibility jangka panjang (IKN, hotel expansion)
• Fundamental finansial solid (DER 0.25x, FCF Rp 2.39T)

Target Price Range Rp 400-521 memberikan upside 8.7-41.6% dengan holding period 12-24 bulan, bergantung pada execution catalysts dan market sentiment.

Rekomendasi: BUY at current prices (Rp 360-380) dengan target accumulation untuk 2-3 tahun holding.

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Prepared by: Financial Analysis System
Data Source: KeyStats, IDX Data, Company Filings, Analyst Reports
Disclaimer: Analisis ini bersifat informatif, bukan rekomendasi investasi personal. Lakukan riset sendiri sebelum investasi.