EXECUTIVE SUMMARYh2

PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) adalah kasus recovery play yang paradoks: valuasi termurah di sektor manufaktur ban dengan potensi upside 58.9% (Rp 2.578), tetapi fundamental operasional memburuk drastis. Screenshot data menunjukkan red flags signifikan: Free Cash Flow negatif Rp -853B, revenue decline -5.98% YoY, dan net income turun -17.55%. Meskipun Lo Kheng Hong terus accumulating (kepemilikan naik ke 5.73% per Nov 3, 2025), kami merekomendasikan WAIT & SEE, bukan BUY pada harga saat ini.

Bottom Line: Valuasi menarik tetapi jangan beli fundamental yang memburuk. Tunggu bukti konkrit bahwa GJTL akan recovery sebelum entry.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & SNAPSHOT FUNDAMENTALh2

Semua data kritis untuk analisis tersedia dari screenshot KeyStats Q3 2025. Tidak ada data missing signifikan yang memicu “tidak ada info”.

Data Kritis - Terverifikasi:

• Current Price: Rp 1.050/saham (mid-range Nov 5-7, 2025)
• Market Cap: Rp 3.746 Triliun
• EPS TTM: Rp 283.53
• PER TTM: 3.79x (EXTREMELY CHEAP)
• PBV: 0.37x (RECORD LOW)
• Net Income TTM: Rp 988 Miliar
• Revenue TTM: Rp 17.709 Triliun
• Free Cash Flow TTM: Rp -853 Miliar ⚠️ NEGATIVE!

Status Verifikasi: ✅ Semua data tersedia dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS VALUASI (2 METODE)h2

METODE A: PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIO (PER) ANALYSISh3

Data Current:

• Current Price: Rp 1.050
• EPS TTM: Rp 283.53
• Current PER TTM: 3.79x ← EXTREMELY LOW

Komparasi dengan Industri:

Penelitian terhadap peer companies menunjukkan:

• GJTL (Current): PER 3.79x (RECORD DISTRESS LEVEL)
• MASA (Multistrada): PER 12-15x range
• GDYR (Goodyear): PER 15-18x range
• Manufacturing Sector Average: PER 12-16x

Insight: PER 3.79x jauh di bawah peers → signal distress atau recovery play

→ Menggunakan Conservative Industry Average = 10.0x

Fair Value Calculation:

Fair Value = EPS TTM × Industry Average PER
Fair Value = Rp 283.53 × 10.0x = Rp 2,835

Valuation Summary (PER Method):

Metrik	Value
Current Price	Rp 1.050
Fair Value (10x)	Rp 2.835
Upside	+170.0%
Assessment	UNDERVALUED

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METODE B: PRICE-TO-BOOK VALUE (PBV) ANALYSISh3

Data Current:

• Current Price: Rp 1.050
• Book Value Per Share (BVPS): Rp 2.901
• Current PBV: 0.37x ← ALL-TIME LOW

Komparasi dengan Industri:

Analisis historis dan peer comparison:

• GJTL (Current): PBV 0.37x (ALL-TIME LOW - termurah dalam sejarah GJTL)
• MASA (Multistrada): PBV 0.8-1.2x
• GDYR (Goodyear): PBV 0.6-0.9x
• Manufacturing Average: PBV 0.8-1.2x
• GJTL Historical (before crisis): PBV 0.8-1.3x

Insight: PBV 0.37x adalah level terendah → either deep value atau value trap

→ Menggunakan Conservative Industry Average = 0.80x

Fair Value Calculation:

Fair Value = BVPS × Industry Average PBV
Fair Value = Rp 2.901 × 0.80x = Rp 2,321

Valuation Summary (PBV Method):

Metrik	Value
Current Price	Rp 1.050
Fair Value (0.8x)	Rp 2.321
Upside	+121.0%
Assessment	UNDERVALUED

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FAIR VALUE RANGE SYNTHESISh3

Method	Fair Value	Upside	Basis
PER Analysis (10x)	Rp 2.835	+170%	Earnings-based
PBV Analysis (0.8x)	Rp 2.321	+121%	Book value-based
Low Range	Rp 2.321	—	Conservative
Mid-point	Rp 2.578	+145.5%	Best Estimate
High Range	Rp 2.835	—	Optimistic

Average Upside: +145.5% (walau dengan caveat besar)

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TAHAP 3: ANALISIS KUALITATIF - RED FLAGS & CONCERNSh2

Bisnis Model & Profil Perusahaanh3

PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk adalah produsen ban terintegrasi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, didirikan tahun 1951, IPO 1990. Portfolio produk mencakup:

• Passenger Tires: GT Radial, Giti (branded)
• Commercial Tires: Ban bias untuk truk/bus, Gajah Tunggal brand
• Motorcycle Tires: IRC Tire (market leader Indonesia)
• Vertical Integration: Memproduksi kain ban & karet sintetis (proprietary supply chain)

Ownership Structure:

• Denham Pte Ltd: 49.50%
• Compagnie Financiere Michelin Scma: 9.98%
• Lo Kheng Hong: 5.73% (actively buying, Nov 3, 2025 baru tambah 1.35M shares)

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Profitabilitas - SEDANG KE BURUKh3

Margin Analysis (Q3 2025):

Metrik	Q3 2025	Assessment
Gross Margin	19.64%	⚠️ RENDAH (vs industry 24-28%)
Operating Margin	9.87%	⚠️ RENDAH
Net Margin	7.37%	⚠️ TERENDAH 5 TAHUN
ROE	7.81%	❌ BELOW COST OF CAPITAL
ROA	3.54%	❌ SANGAT RENDAH

Insight: ROE 7.81% < Indonesia cost of capital (~10-12%) = menghancurkan nilai pemegang saham

Profitability Trend (DETERIORATING):

Q3 2024: Net Profit Rp 988.6B → Q3 2025: Net Profit Rp 789.7B
DECLINE: -20.1% YoY ← ALARMING

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Cash Flow - CRITICAL RED FLAG ❌h3

Free Cash Flow Analysis (TTM):

Metrik	TTM Value	Status
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 1.236 T	✓ Positive
Capital Expenditure	Rp -2.089 T	Heavy spending
Free Cash Flow	Rp -853 B	❌ NEGATIVE!

Critical Issue:

• GJTL menghabiskan Rp 2.089T untuk capex tetapi hanya generate Rp 1.236T dari operasi
• Hasilnya: Negative FCF Rp -853B = tidak sustainable
• Dividend Rp 50/share = Rp 175B p.a. tetap dibayar meskipun FCF negatif → unsustainable
• Artinya: Using debt atau cash reserves untuk bayar dividen ← Red flag for value investor

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Kesehatan Finansial - CONCERNINGh3

Liquidity:

Ratio	Value	Assessment
Current Ratio	1.50x	⚠️ MARGINAL (ideal 2.0x+)
Quick Ratio	1.06x	⚠️ TIGHT
Cash Position	Rp 867B	⚠️ LIMITED (market cap Rp 3.7T)

Leverage - PROBLEMATIC:

Ratio	Value	Assessment
Debt-to-Equity	0.55x	⚠️ ELEVATED (0.40x preferred)
Total Debt	Rp 5.545 T	High vs Rp 1.236T operating cash
Debt/EBITDA (Q3)	4.35x	⚠️ TIGHT (prefer < 3x)
Interest Coverage	2.87x	⚠️ MARGINAL (need > 4x comfort)

Solvency Concern: Dengan negative FCF + high debt + weak interest coverage, perusahaan rentan terhadap:

• Refinancing risk jika rates naik
• Dividend cut jika cash position worsens
• Possible covenant breach if EBITDA turun lagi

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Pertumbuhan - DETERIORATING 📉h3

Growth Metrics (YoY Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Metrik	Growth	Status
Revenue	-2.4%	❌ DECLINING
Gross Profit	-15.0%	❌ MARGIN SQUEEZE
Net Income	-20.1%	❌ PROFIT EROSION

9M 2025 Performance:

Revenue 9M 2025: Rp 13.122T vs 9M 2024: Rp 13.442T → -2.4% YoY
Net Profit 9M 2025: Rp 789.7B vs 9M 2024: Rp 988.6B → -20.1% YoY

Industry Context - Automotive Lemah:

• Car sales H1 2025: 453.278 unit (-10.8% YoY vs 505K unit)
• Wholesales: 435.390 unit (-10.1% YoY)
• Ban OEM demand turun → GJTL affected
• Shift ke EV → tire demand characteristics berubah

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TAHAP 4: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: HOLD / WAIT & SEE ⏸️h3

JANGAN BELI PADA HARGA SAAT INI

Why Not BUY?h4

1. Negative Free Cash Flow = Dealbreaker

   • Rp -853B TTM tidak sustainable
   • Dividend yield 4.65% terlihat menarik tapi basis cash flow negative
   • Tidak bisa fund capex + dividen dari operasi

2. Revenue Declining = Demand Destruction, Bukan Temporary

   • -2.4% YoY revenue (9M 2025)
   • -5.98% revenue per data lain
   • Signal demand weakness, not cyclical dip

3. Profitability Erosion = Margin Pressure

   • Gross margin down 15% YoY
   • Net margin at 5-year low
   • ROE 7.81% < Cost of capital

4. High Leverage + Weak Cash Flow = Refinancing Risk

   • DER 0.55x tidak ideal during downturn
   • Debt/EBITDA 4.35x getting tighter
   • If rates stay high = refinancing becomes expensive

5. Value Trap Risk = Market Knows Something

   • Valuasi PER 3.79x terendah di industri
   • PBV 0.37x all-time low
   • Cheap valuation might indicate deteriorating business = trap, not opportunity

Target Price Rangeh4

Scenario	Price	Upside	Timeline	Condition
Conservative	Rp 2.321	+121%	18-24 months	FCF turns positive
Moderate	Rp 2.578	+145%	12-18 months	Recovery + revenue growth
Aggressive	Rp 2.835	+170%	24+ months	Full turnaround + divid growth

Entry Trigger (When to CONSIDER buying):

1. ✅ Q4 2025 earnings show revenue returning to +ve YoY growth
2. ✅ FCF turns positive (Rp +100B or more)
3. ✅ Management credible turnaround roadmap
4. ✅ Automotive market stabilizing (rate cuts working)
5. ✅ Debt reduction progress or covenant confidence

Stop Loss: Rp 900 (-14.3%)

• If breaks this = thesis broken = exit

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Investor Profile & Suitabilityh3

Investor Type	Rating	Why
Value Trap Specialists	⭐⭐☆☆☆	High risk - negative FCF is dealbreaker
Recovery/Turnaround Traders	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Fit if 2-3 year horizon & high risk tolerance
Lo Kheng Hong Followers	⭐⭐⭐☆☆	Insider accumulation positive but not guarantee
Dividend Income Seekers	⭐☆☆☆☆	❌ AVOID - dividend unsustainable with -FCF
Conservative Long-term	⭐⭐☆☆☆	❌ Too risky - need positive FCF first

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Analisis Risiko Komprehensif (5 Risiko Kritis)h2

1. Negative Free Cash Flow (CRITICAL)h3

• Problem: Rp -853B TTM unsustainable
• Implication: Cannot fund growth + dividends internally
• Timeline: Must turn positive in H2 2025-Q1 2026
• Monitoring: Track quarterly OCF vs capex ratio

2. Revenue Decline (STRUCTURAL)h3

• Problem: -2.4% to -5.98% YoY indicates demand destruction
• Implication: Not temporary margin pressure - real volume loss
• Cause: Weak automotive sales, EV disruption, competitive pressure
• Monitoring: Watch H2 2025 sales momentum + 2026 guidance

3. High Leverage vs Weak Cash Flow (HIGH RISK)h3

• Problem: DER 0.55x with Debt/EBITDA 4.35x when EBITDA declining
• Implication: Refinancing risk if rates don’t fall or decline further
• Risk: Covenant breach possible if EBITDA drops >20% more
• Monitoring: Interest rate trajectory + debt maturity schedule

4. Automotive Industry Headwind (MEDIUM-HIGH)h3

• Problem: Car sales -10.8% H1 2025, shift to EV
• Implication: OEM tire demand down significantly
• Opportunity: Aftermarket still resilient (existing vehicles need tires)
• Monitoring: Wait for evidence of stabilization (Q4 + rate cut effects)

5. Value Trap Scenario (MEDIUM)h3

• Problem: Cheap valuation may signal market sees further deterioration
• Implication: Stock could go lower despite attractive valuations
• Precedent: Many “cheap” manufacturing stocks went lower in downturns
• Monitoring: Require concrete recovery evidence, not just valuation cheapness

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Key Catalysts untuk Re-Rating (Positif)h2

Ini adalah trigger yang bisa membuat GJTL transition dari HOLD ke BUY:

1. ✅ Positive FCF Generation

   • Current: -Rp 853B → Target: +Rp 100B+ quarterly
   • Signal: Operating discipline + capital allocation focus

2. ✅ Revenue Stabilization

   • Current: -2.4% to -5.98% YoY → Target: Flat to +2% YoY
   • Signal: Demand bottoming, market share defense working

3. ✅ Margin Improvement

   • Current: Gross margin 19.64% → Target: >22%
   • Signal: Cost management + pricing power

4. ✅ Automotive Industry Rebound

   • BI rate cuts having effect on consumer spending
   • Car sales inflection to +ve YoY growth
   • Signal: Sector cycle turning

5. ✅ Debt Reduction Progress

   • Target: Bring Debt/EBITDA from 4.35x to < 3.5x
   • Signal: Financial flexibility restored

6. ✅ Market Share Gains

   • Especially in aftermarket (less cyclical than OEM)
   • IRC motorcycle tire growing despite EV threat
   • Signal: Competitive positioning strengthening

7. ✅ Management Turnaround Credibility

   • Clear capex plans addressing industry trends
   • EV tire R&D progress
   • Dividend policy adjusted to match cash generation
   • Signal: Strategic pivot underway

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Kesimpulan & Rekomendasi Finalh2

Investment Thesis Summaryh3

Aspek	Assessment
Valuasi	EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE (PER 3.79x, PBV 0.37x)
Fundamental	DETERIORATING (negative FCF, revenue down, margin squeeze)
Sentiment	INSIDER BUYING (Lo Kheng Hong accumulating 5.73%)
Risk/Reward	HIGH RISK + HIGH REWARD recovery play
Current Recommendation	WAIT & SEE - do NOT buy now

Final Verdicth3

GJTL adalah paradox: termurah di industri tetapi fundamentalnya memburuk.

Why Valuation Alone Tidak Cukup:

• PER 3.79x sangat murah, tapi free cash flow negative
• Tidak masuk akal membeli bisnis dengan declining revenue + negative FCF hanya karena PER rendah
• Temptation untuk membeli cheap value seringkali leads ke value trap

Better Approach:

1. ✅ Tunggu bukti konkrit recovery (Q4 2025 results likely Jan 2026)
2. ✅ Cari tanda FCF stabilisasi (positive quarterly FCF)
3. ✅ Monitor BI rate cut effects (should help automotive sales)
4. ✅ Enter AFTER reversal confirmed, not before

Investor Action Planh3

IF you already own GJTL:

• HOLD (jangan panic sell, tapi monitor closely)
• Re-evaluate at Q4 2025 earnings release
• Set mental stop loss at Rp 900

IF you’re considering buying:

• DO NOT BUY AT CURRENT PRICE
• Create watchlist, monitor next 2-3 quarters
• Entry point: AFTER 2-3 positive indicators confirmed
• Alternative: PWON (better fundamentals) atau stocks with positive FCF

Key Monitoring Dates:

• Q4 2025 earnings release (est. late Jan 2026)
• BI rate cut announcement (expected Dec 2025)
• Auto sales data (monthly, check for recovery)
• Industry analyst downgrades (bellwether for further deterioration)

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Data Source Note: Semua data dari screenshot KeyStats per Nov 5-7, 2025. Harga terbaru Rp 1.040-1.095.

Disclaimer: Analisis ini informatif, bukan rekomendasi personal. Do your own research & consult financial advisor sebelum investasi. Past recovery patterns do not guarantee future results.