Analisis mendalam saham PEHA (PT Phapros Tbk) per kuartal ketiga 2025, mencakup profil bisnis, kinerja keuangan, valuasi, risiko, dan rekomendasi investasi.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 298 per lembar
Ticker: PEHA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Phapros Tbk
Sektor: Farmasi - Produksi, Distribusi Obat-obatan, Herbal, Supplement
Nilai Pasar: Rp 250 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 840 Juta lembar
Sejarah: Founded 1952 | IPO 2001 | Historical Blue-chip | Recently Restructuring
🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - ACCUMULATE (PHARMACEUTICAL TURNAROUND, Q3 2025 INFLECTION POINT, HIGH-RISK/HIGH-REWARD)h2
Rating: 🟡 ACCUMULATE (Perusahaan farmasi sedang turnaround recovery dari 2024 loss crisis, Q3 2025 menunjukkan inflection point positif dengan profit swing + OCF positive, tapi TTM masih negatif, valuation murah, dividen history kuat - cocok untuk patient recovery investor)
PEHA adalah perusahaan farmasi bersejarah yang mengalami kesulitan 2023-2024 (loss Rp (285)M 2024) tetapi mulai recovery 2025. TTM menunjukkan loss Rp (210)M akibat bleed 2024, tapi 9M 2025 sudah swing positive profit Rp ~7-10M dengan trajectory jelas. Q3 2025 solidnya: revenue Rp 856M (+10,27% YoY), operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37%, OCF positif Rp 115M (turnaround signal kuat). Cost restructuring berhasil. Management target H1 2025 positive (achieved). Saham turun -82% dari peak justified karena 2024 crisis, tapi recovery underway. P/E negative (loss company) tapi IMPROVING. Dividen history Rp 13-85 (dari era profitable) suggestive dari potensi. Rating ACCUMULATE untuk risk-taker believing turnaround akan complete 2026.
Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9M 2025 Progress):
| Item | Nilai | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp 856 Miliar | Growing +10,27% YoY |
| Laba Kotor TTM | Rp 353 Miliar | Gross margin 41,2% |
| EBITDA TTM | Rp 157 Miliar | EBITDA margin 18,3% |
| Laba Bersih TTM | Rp (210) Miliar | TTM LOSS (2024 overhang) |
| Q3 2025 Profit | Rp 5 Miliar | Positive ✓ (inflection) |
| 9M 2025 Profit (est) | Rp ~7-10 Miliar | Swing positive ✓ |
| OCF TTM | Rp 115 Miliar | POSITIVE STRONG ✓ |
| FCF TTM | Rp 106 Miliar | STRONG ✓ |
| D/E Ratio | 1,67x | Manageable |
| Altman Score | 0,43 | 🟡 Distress zone (TTM), but improving |
| Interest Coverage | -3,88x | Negative (TTM), but Q3 positive |
| Operating Margin Q3 | 7,49% | Good |
| Net Margin Q3 | 2,37% | Positive inflection |
Profil Turnaround & Recovery:
- 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Rear-view mirror effect (2024 crisis cumulative in TTM)
- ✓ But Q1-Q3 2025 profitable - 9M swing positive turnaround underway
- ✓ OCF positive Rp 115M - Cash generation strong (turnaround signal)
- ✓ Revenue growth +10,27% - Demand recovery visible
- ✓ Cost restructuring working - Operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37% (Q3 improvement)
- 🟡 Price down -82% 5-tahun justified - But valuation now beaten down
- ✓ Dividen history Rp 13-85 - Suggests profitable era potential returning
- ✓ Pharmaceutical fundamentals solid - Essential products, recurring demand
Kesimpulan Awal: PEHA adalah HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND PLAY dengan clear inflection point Q3 2025. TTM loss hanya karena 2024 crisis yang sudah dilewati; operasional 2025 sudah profitable. OCF positif dan revenue growth confirm turnaround genuine. Cocok HANYA untuk investor yang: (1) percaya turnaround akan complete 2026, (2) dapat hold 2-3 tahun, (3) accept -50% downside jika turnaround fails, (4) tahu farmasi sector. Rating ACCUMULATE (bukan BUY aggressive).
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2
PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA & TIMING:
Format Konversi (CRITICAL):
- “856 B” Revenue TTM = Rp 856 MILIAR (B = Billion = Miliar, BUKAN Triliun)
- “353 B” Gross Profit TTM = Rp 353 MILIAR
- “157 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 157 MILIAR
- “(210) B” Net Loss TTM = Rp (210) MILIAR loss
- “115 B” OCF TTM = Rp 115 MILIAR
- “92 B” Kas Q = Rp 92 MILIAR
✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - semua dalam MILIAR format
PENTING - TTM vs Quarterly Sequential Analysis:
Kenapa TTM loss tapi Q3 positif? Karena TTM (last 12 months) includes:
- Q4 2024 (very weak, loss Rp ~100M+)
- Q1-Q3 2024 (weak, loss Rp ~180M total)
- Total 2024 loss ~Rp (285)M = Q4 2024 bleed
Sedangkan 2025 (9M):
- Q1 2025: (6) Miliar loss (early recovery)
- Q2 2025: 8 Miliar profit (turning point!)
- Q3 2025: 5 Miliar profit (confirmed!)
- Total 9M 2025 ~Rp 7M profit (SWING!)
Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM vs Sequential):
| Periode | Revenue | Operating Margin | Net Profit | Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 267,5M | 7,49% | 5M | 2,37% | ↑ Positive |
| Q3 2024 | 243,3M | Negative | (18)M | Negative | ↓ Loss |
| 9M 2025 est | 800M | ~6% | ~7-10M | ~1% | ↑ Turnaround |
| 9M 2024 | 713M | Negative | (30)M | Negative | ↓ Loss |
| FY 2024 | 780M | Negative | (285)M | Negative | ↓ Crisis |
| TTM | 856M | 18% EBITDA | (210)M | Negative | ↑ Improving |
KEY INSIGHT: TTM loss is 2024 cumulative (Rp (285)M) still heavy-weighted. But 9M 2025 already swing positive! This suggests 4Q 2025 could be VERY positive if momentum continues.
Per Saham:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | Rp (249,48) |
| EPS (Annual) | Rp 12,28 |
| Revenue Per Share (TTM) | Rp 1.019,16 |
| Dividen (Historical) | Rp 13,37 |
🟡 EPS TTM negative - But annualized EPS positive Rp 12,28 (showing recovery).
🟡 Dividen historical Rp 13,37 - From profitable 2022, suggests distribution capacity if turnaround succeeds.
Neraca (Q3 2025):
| Item | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Kas | 92 |
| Total Aset | 1.457 |
| Total Liabilitas | 1.054 |
| Total Ekuitas | 390 |
| Utang Jangka Panjang | 388 |
| Utang Jangka Pendek | 261 |
| Total Utang | 649 |
| Net Debt | (557) |
🟡 Net Debt Rp (557)M - Some leverage, but D/E 1,67x manageable.
🟡 Working capital tight - Liabilities > Equity ratio elevated (turnaround stress).
Arus Kas (TTM):
| Komponen | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Arus dari Operasi | 115 ✓ |
| Arus dari Investasi | (9) |
| Arus Kas Bebas | 106 ✓ |
| Arus dari Pendanaan | (64) |
✓ OCF Rp 115M positive - EXCELLENT turnaround signal (company generating cash despite loss on paper).
✓ FCF Rp 106M positive - Can self-fund operations, no external financing needed.
Valuasi (pada harga Rp 298):
| Metrik | Nilai | Penilaian |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | Negative | N/A (loss company) |
| P/E (Annual) | 24,27x | 🟡 Fair-to-High (if turnaround succeeds) |
| P/B | 0,64x | 🟢 Discount to book (value) |
| P/S | 0,29x | 🟢 VERY CHEAP |
| EV/EBITDA | -4,09x | N/A (negative) |
| Price-to-FCF | 2,36x | 🟢 EXCELLENT |
🟢 VALUATION ATTRACTIVE IF TURNAROUND SUCCEEDS - P/S 0,29x is extremely cheap, P/B 0,64x discount, P/FCF 2,36x excellent.
🔴 BUT RISK: If turnaround fails, downside -50%+ (to Rp 150 range).
Profitabilitas (Quarterly Trend):
| Margin | Q3 2025 | 9M 2025 | FY 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 52,34% | ~41% | ~40% | Stable |
| Operating Margin | 7,49% | ~6% | Negative | ↑ RECOVERING |
| Net Profit Margin | 2,37% | ~1% | Negative | ↑ RECOVERING |
✓ Margins improving dramatically - Q3 2025 net margin 2,37% vs FY2024 negative = clear recovery.
Pertumbuhan (YoY):
| Metrik | Q3 YoY | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10,27% ✓ | Growing |
| Gross Profit | +27,32% ✓ | Strong |
| Net Income | +129,23% ✓ | Swing from loss |
✓ ALL positive YoY - Net income swing +129% (from -18M to +5M) shows inflection.
Kesehatan Finansial:
| Metrik | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1,32x | 🟡 Tight |
| Quick Ratio | 1,02x | 🟡 Barely adequate |
| D/E | 1,67x | 🟡 Manageable |
| Interest Coverage | -3,88x | 🔴 TTM negative |
| Altman Score | 0,43 | 🔴 DISTRESS (TTM), improving |
| FCF | 106 Miliar | ✓ Positive |
🟡 Altman 0,43 indicates distress - BUT this is TTM (2024 crisis). Q3 2025 momentum suggests Altman improving.
Returns (TTM):
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| ROA | -14,38% |
| ROE | -53,77% |
| ROIC | -23,01% |
🔴 ALL NEGATIVE TTM - But backward-looking (2024 loss). 2025 ROIC likely positive if turnaround continues.
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: 🟡 INFLECTION POINT - RECOVERING FROM LOSS
🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Negative fundamental.
✓ BUT Q3 2025 margin 2,37% - Positive inflection confirmed.
✓ 9M 2025 profit Rp ~7-10M - Turnaround underway.
✓ Margin trajectory improving - Operating margin 7,49% Q3 strong untuk farmasi.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: ✓ STRONG POSITIVE - RECOVERY SIGNAL
✓ OCF Rp 115M POSITIVE - Excellent for loss company (indicates genuine recovery, not accounting).
✓ FCF Rp 106M POSITIVE - Self-funding capability.
✓ Cash generation proof - Turnaround is real (not just paper).
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: 🟡 MANAGEABLE LEVERAGE, MONITORING NEEDED
🟡 D/E 1,67x manageable - High but typical turnaround.
🔴 Interest coverage negative TTM - But likely positive Q3 2025.
🟡 Altman 0,43 distress TTM - Will improve as 2024 loss weight out.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE TTM, BUT IMPROVING Q3
🔴 All returns negative TTM - ROE -53%, ROA -14%, ROIC -23%.
✓ But trend upward - If turnaround succeeds, returns will swing positive dramatically.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: - NONE NOW, BUT HISTORY STRONG (Rp 13-85)
❌ No dividen 2023-2025 - Suspended during crisis.
✓ But historical Rp 13,37 (2022), Rp 23,09 (2020) - Suggests capacity to resume if turnaround succeeds.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | 🟡 Inflection recovering | 2.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | ✓ Strong positive | 4/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | 🟡 Manageable | 2.5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | 🔴 Negative TTM | 1/5 |
| 5. Dividen | - None, but capacity if successful | 1/5 |
| RATA-RATA | 🟡 TURNAROUND INFLECTION | 2.2/5 (TTM) |
PENTING: Rata-rata 2.2/5 TTM tidak fair. Sequential Q3 2025 menunjukkan 3.5-4.0/5 trajectory. This is ASYMMETRIC risk/reward: downside defined (cash positive), upside significant (if turnaround complete).
TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2
Fair Value Estimation (Base on Turnaround Scenario):
| Model | Fair Value | Current | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B 1,0x (if profitable) | Rp 390 | Rp 298 | +31% |
| P/E 12x (normalized) | Rp 147 | Rp 298 | -50% |
| P/S 0,5x (industry avg) | Rp 428 | Rp 298 | +44% |
| DCF recovery scenario | Rp 350-450 | Rp 298 | +17-51% |
| Consensus (if turnaround) | Rp 350-450 | Rp 298 | +17-51% |
🟡 Fair value highly CONDITIONAL on turnaround success.
TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2
| Scenario | Prob | Return | Target | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | +100% | Rp 596 | Turnaround complete, profit Rp 30-40M, dividen resume |
| Base | 40% | +20% | Rp 358 | Turnaround succeeds, profit Rp 15M, normalized valuation |
| Bear | 20% | -40% | Rp 179 | Recovery stalls, margin pressure, dividen stays suspended |
| Crash | 10% | -80% | Rp 60 | Turnaround fails, return to loss, liquidity crisis |
| Expected | +8% | Rp 322 | Probability-weighted (modest positive, high-risk) |
🟡 Expected return +8% is LOW, but asymmetric risk: huge upside if turnaround succeeds, defined downside if fails.
REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: 🟡 ACCUMULATE (Not BUY - requires specific thesis)h3
🟡 ACCUMULATE di Rp 298 (Hanya untuk risk-taker turnaround believers)
Alasan:
- ✓ Turnaround inflection point clear (Q3 2025 profit positive)
- ✓ OCF Rp 115M positive (genuine recovery, not accounting)
- ✓ Revenue growing +10,27% (demand exists)
- ✓ Cost restructuring working (margin improving)
- ✓ Valuation cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
- ✓ Dividen history strong (Rp 13-85 suggests resumption potential)
- ✓ Saham down -82% already reflected worst case
TAPI WARNING:
- ❌ TTM still loss (rear-view mirror, but real)
- ❌ Altman 0,43 distress zone
- ❌ Interest coverage negative TTM
- ❌ Working capital tight
- ❌ Downside -50%+ if turnaround stalls
Entry Strategy (For High-Risk Tolerance Only):
| Level | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Rp 298-320 | SMALL BUY (10-15% portfolio) | Current, test turnaround narrative |
| Rp 250-280 | Accumulate (if dips) | Better risk/reward entry |
| >Rp 400 | REDUCE (lock profit) | Full recovery scenario achieved |
Hold Period: 2-3 years minimum (turnaround cycle)
Key Catalysts to Monitor:
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | Full-year 2025 results (CRITICAL) | Confirm turnaround trajectory |
| H1 2026 | Profit Rp 15M+ target | Dividen resumption signal |
| 2026+ | Margin normalization (5%+) | Valuation re-rating |
Red Flags / Stop-Loss:
- 🔴 Q4 2025 profit < Rp 3M - Momentum stalling
- 🔴 Revenue decline - Demand weakness
- 🔴 Margin compression - Cost creep returning
- 🔴 Altman score declining - Solvency worsening
- 🔴 Interest payments missed - Financial distress
- Stop-Loss: Rp 150 (fundamental deterioration)
KESIMPULANh2
PEHA adalah 🟡 ACCUMULATE (HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND) - NOT FOR GENERAL INVESTORS.
Fundamental kritis:
- 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M (real, but from 2024 crisis)
- 🔴 Altman 0,43 distress (but improving)
- ✓ But OCF Rp 115M positive (turnaround genuine)
- ✓ Q3 2025 profit swing positive (inflection confirmed)
Valuation:
- ✓ Cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
- ❌ Potentially expensive IF turnaround fails (downside -50%)
Cocok HANYA untuk:
- Investor yang percaya pada pharmaceutical sector Indonesia recovery
- Mereka yang believe management execution turnaround
- Risk-takers yang dapat afford 50%+ loss jika turnaround fails
- 2-3 year+ hold minimum horizon
NOT for:
- Conservative investors
- Short-term traders
- Portfolio diversification (single risk=concentrated)
Best approach: Small speculative position (5-10% portfolio) if convinced turnaround narrative. Monitor Q4 2025 results closely - this is THE test of recovery thesis.
Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, H1 2025 progress report, cost restructuring evidence, dan pharmaceutical industry tailwinds.
Comments