GOTO menunjukkan kemajuan signifikan menuju profitabilitas dengan pertumbuhan pendapatan kuat di Q3 2025. Namun, tantangan margin dan cash flow perlu diperhatikan.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYh2
PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) adalah platform teknologi terbesar di Indonesia yang telah mencapai milestone penting pada Q3 2025: pre-tax profit positif untuk pertama kalinya (Rp 62B), signaling end of burn phase dan start of profitability era. Berbeda dengan PWON (stable value) atau GJTL (recovery play), GOTO adalah HIGH-GROWTH company approaching profitability.
Key Facts:
- Still loss-making on net income basis (TTM -Rp 1,617T) but Adjusted EBITDA massively positive (Rp 1,336T for 9M 2025)
- Revenue growing +20,67% YoY, Gross Profit +29,16% YoY menunjukkan strong unit economics
- Management guidance raised untuk full-year 2025: Adjusted EBITDA Rp 1,8-1,9T (up from Rp 1,4-1,6T)
- Path to profitability clear: 2025 guide -Rp 293B net loss → 2026F +Rp 2,3T net profit
- Strong balance sheet: Net cash Rp 13,4T, no financial distress risk
- Valuation reasonable: P/S 4,15x in line with peers, not cheap but fair for growth
Rekomendasi: ACCUMULATE / BUY ON DIPS dengan target Rp 65-85 tahun depan. Saham ini bukan value trap seperti GJTL atau stable dividend seperti PWON - ini adalah growth story dengan clear profitability path.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATAh2
Semua data kritis tersedia dengan jelas dari KeyStats Q3 2025:
Data Valuation (UNIQUE FOR LOSS-MAKING COMPANY):
- Current Price: Rp 61
- EPS TTM: -Rp 1,36 (NEGATIVE - can’t use PER)
- PER TTM: -44,93x (MEANINGLESS - ignore)
- PBV: 2,26x (useable)
- Price-to-Sales: 4,15x (key metric for growth companies)
Data Finansial (TTM):
- Revenue: Rp 17,527 Triliun (growing)
- Net Income: -Rp 1,617 Triliun (still losing money)
- Adjusted EBITDA: Rp 1,336 Triliun (9M2025 run-rate) ← KEY METRIC
- Operating Cash Flow: Rp 265 Miliar (weak but improving)
- Free Cash Flow: -Rp 1,929 Miliar (negative but that’s normal for growth capex)
Balance Sheet (STRENGTH):
- Cash: Rp 17,649 Triliun ← STRONG
- Total Debt: Rp 4,221 Triliun
- Net Debt: -Rp 13,428 Miliar (NET CASH position!) ← VERY POSITIVE
- Debt-to-Equity: 0,13x ← Very low, no distress
- Current Ratio: 2,57x ← Excellent
Growth Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):
- Revenue Growth: +20,67% YoY ✓
- Gross Profit Growth: +29,16% YoY ✓
- Net Income Growth: +87,88% YoY (but from negative base, so still loss)
Status Verifikasi: ✅ Semua data tersedia dan konsisten dengan press release resmi GOTO
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS VALUASI (ALTERNATIVE METHODS)h2
⚠️ IMPORTANT: Standard PER Analysis TIDAK BERLAKU untuk GOTOh3
Kenapa?
- Perusahaan masih loss-making (Net Income -Rp 1,617T)
- EPS TTM negative (Rp -1,36 per share)
- PER -44,93x tidak meaningful → IGNORE
Alternatif untuk valuasi loss-making companies:
- ✅ Price-to-Sales (P/S) - murah dan meaningful
- ✅ Price-to-Book Value (PBV) - traditional valuation
- ✅ EV/Revenue - menunjukkan market value vs business size
- ✅ EV/Adjusted EBITDA - forward-looking profitability metric
METODE A: PRICE-TO-SALES RATIOh3
Current Metrics:
- Market Cap: Rp 72,660 Triliun
- Revenue TTM: Rp 17,527 Triliun
- Price-to-Sales: 4,15x
Industry Comparison:
| Company Type | Typical P/S | GOTO Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tech platforms (global) | 3-6x | In range |
| Gojek-like regional peers | 4-6x | In range |
| Profitable SaaS | 8-12x | Lower |
| Growth stage tech | 4-7x | In range |
Conclusion: GOTO P/S 4,15x is fair, not cheap - in line with comparable platforms.
METODE B: PRICE-TO-BOOK VALUEh3
Current Metrics:
- Current Price: Rp 61
- Book Value Per Share: Rp 26,93
- PBV: 2,26x
Fair Value Calculation:
Industry average PBV: 1,8x (conservative for tech platform)
Fair Value = Rp 26,93 × 1,8x = Rp 48,5
Current Price: Rp 61
Downside: -25,8%
Insight: On PBV basis, GOTO appears slightly expensive at current price. This suggests:
- Either market pricing in strong EBITDA improvement
- Or stock might correct to Rp 48-52 range on weakness
METODE C: EV/ADJUSTED EBITDA (MOST RELEVANT FOR GOTO)h3
Why this matters:
- Net income masih negative, tapi Adjusted EBITDA massively positive (Rp 1,336T for 9M)
- Ini signal bahwa operational business healthy, just timing of profitability different
- Management guidance: FY25 Adj EBITDA Rp 1,8-1,9T vs current 1,336T run-rate
Current Valuation:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | Rp 72,660 T |
| Net Cash | Rp 13,428 T |
| Enterprise Value | Rp 59,232 T |
| Adj EBITDA 9M2025 | Rp 1,336 T |
| EV/Adj EBITDA | 44,3x |
Comparison with peers:
- SaaS companies (pre-profit): 15-25x EV/EBITDA
- Tech platforms (growing): 20-35x
- GOTO: 44,3x ← Slightly premium but not unreasonable for GOTO’s scale
2026F Valuation (Forward-Looking):
Analyst 2026F Adj EBITDA Forecast: Rp 4,18 Triliun
Using 20x EV/EBITDA multiple (SaaS comparable):
Implied EV 2026: Rp 83,6 Triliun
Implied Market Cap: Rp 96 Triliun (using net cash adjustment)
Implied Price Per Share 2026: Rp 80
SCENARIO-BASED VALUATIONh3
| Scenario | Price | Upside | Probability | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEAR | Rp 45 | -26% | 15% | If growth stalls |
| BASE | Rp 65 | +7% | 60% | Current trajectory continues |
| BULL | Rp 85 | +39% | 25% | If 2026 guidance beat + expansion |
Most Likely: Base case Rp 65 = current price appreciation minimal but downside protected
TAHAP 3: ANALISIS KUALITATIFh2
Business Model & Ecosystem Strengthh3
GOTO adalah konglomerasi 3 pilar:
-
On-Demand Services (Gojek)
- Mobility (ride-sharing)
- Delivery (food, logistics)
- Q3 2025: Adj EBITDA Rp 336B (3,0% margin on GTV)
- Growth: Mobility +1% YoY (flatish), Delivery +4% YoY (modest)
- Challenge: Intense competition
-
E-Commerce (Tokopedia)
- Marketplace, payments, logistics
- Service fee revenue growing
- Q3 2025: Revenue Rp 211B from e-commerce (smallest segment but growing)
- Challenge: Competition from Shopee, Lazada
-
Financial Technology (GoPay, Fintech)
- Payment solutions, lending, insurance
- STRONGEST GROWTH ENGINE: Loan outstanding +88% YoY to Rp 7,6T
- Q3 2025: Adj EBITDA Rp 136B (+55% QoQ)
- Target: Rp 8T loan book by end 2025
- This is the profitability driver
Competitive Position:
✓ #1 digital ecosystem in Indonesia (largest user base across all segments)
✓ Unique moat: Ecosystem integration (users can stay within GOTO for all needs)
✓ Financial leverage in fintech: Using Gojek drivers + Tokopedia sellers as lending targets
⚠️ Competition intense in ODS (mobility & delivery saturated, margin thin)
Path to Profitability: The GOTO Turnaround Storyh3
Q3 2025 Milestone: FIRST POSITIVE PRE-TAX PROFIT
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Loss | -Rp 4,31 T | -Rp 0,776 T | -82% ✓ |
| Adj EBITDA | Rp 152 B | Rp 516 B | +239% ✓ |
| Pre-tax Profit (Adj) | -Loss | +Rp 62 B | POSITIVE! ✓ |
| Operating Margin | Negative | -1,07% | Improving ✓ |
Analyst Forecast Path:
2024 Actual: Net Loss -Rp 5,155 T
2025 Guidance: Net Loss -Rp 293 B (98% improvement!)
2026F Forecast: Net Profit +Rp 2,278 T (swing to profitability!)
2027F Forecast: Net Profit +Rp 3,545 T (expanding profits)
Operating Margin:
2024: 2% (hanya dari fintech)
2025F: 9% (group level)
2026F: 18% (approaching mature tech company)
2027F: 21% (normalized SaaS margins)
Key Catalyst: FINTECH IS THE PROFIT ENGINE
- Fintech contribution growing exponentially
- Loan originations scaling massively (+88% YoY)
- Net interest margin improving
- Credit quality data-driven, manageable delinquency
- This segment will drive GOTO to profitability
Growth Metrics: STRONGh3
| Metric | Growth | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Q3 25 vs Q3 24) | +20,67% | ✓ STRONG double-digit |
| Gross Profit (Q3 25 vs Q3 24) | +29,16% | ✓ STRONG - faster than revenue |
| GTV (Gross Transaction Value) | +6% QoQ / +6% YoY | ⚠️ Moderate (slowing?) |
| Fintech Loan Book | +88% YoY to Rp 7,6 T | ✓ VERY STRONG |
| MTU (Monthly Transaction Users) | Growing across segments | ✓ |
Insight: Revenue growing faster than GTV → Fintech/high-margin services taking bigger share = margin improvement story
Financial Health: EXCELLENTh3
Liquidity:
- Cash: Rp 17,649 T (strong buffer)
- Current Ratio: 2,57x (excellent)
- Net Cash Position: Rp 13,428 T (net cash not debt!)
Leverage:
- Debt-to-Equity: 0,13x (very low)
- No covenant concerns
- Can fund capex/investment from internal cash
Cash Flow:
- FCF negative (Rp -1,929B) but that’s expected for growth company
- Burning cash for capex/expansion = investment phase
- Not distress, just phase of development
- OCF only Rp 265B (weak) but management says improving
Risks & Challengesh3
1. Competition (HIGH)
- ODS (Gojek) facing intense competition from Grab
- Marketplace competing with Shopee, Lazada, Blibli
- Fintech competing with multiple lenders
- Mitigation: Ecosystem integration, first-mover advantage, scale
2. Regulatory Risk (MEDIUM)
- Government could change lending/payment regulations
- Tax treatment of platform companies evolving
- Competition policy scrutiny
- Mitigation: GOTO well-capitalized to absorb regulatory changes
3. Profitability Execution Risk (MEDIUM)
- Path to profitability clear but depends on:
- Fintech credit quality staying good (no loan loss spike)
- ODS margins not compressing further
- Tokopedia commerce layer scaling
- Mitigation: Diversified profit sources reducing single-point failure
4. Macroeconomic Risk (MEDIUM)
- Consumer spending slowdown → Gojek rides decline
- Higher inflation → lending default risk
- Rate hikes → credit demand falls
- Mitigation: BI rate cuts ongoing, consumption recovery underway
5. Technology/Product Risk (MEDIUM)
- Platform disruption by new entrant
- Changing user preferences (AI assistants, etc)
- Mitigation: Company investing heavily in AI (mentioned Sahabat-AI)
TAHAP 4: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2
RATING: ACCUMULATE / BUY ON DIPSh3
This is VERY DIFFERENT from PWON (steady value) or GJTL (recovery play):
- GOTO is growth story with profitability inflection point happening NOW
- Not cheap valuation, but fair price for right story
- Requires belief in management execution and fintech thesis
PRICE TARGETS & CATALYSTSh3
| Target | Price | Upside | Timeline | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Rp 65 | +7% | 12 months | Path continues, no surprises |
| Base Case | Rp 75 | +23% | 12-18 months | 2025 EBITDA met, 2026 guidance strong |
| Bull Case | Rp 85 | +39% | 18-24 months | 2026 profitability achieved, fintech scales |
Recommended Action:
- 🟢 BUY at Rp 53-58: Strong entry point
- 🟡 HOLD at Rp 58-65: Fair price, wait for 2025 year-end results
- 🔴 TAKE PROFIT at Rp 75+: Lock in gains on 2026 visibility
Stop Loss: Rp 50
- If breaks below this = thesis broken (serious deterioration)
Key Milestones to Monitorh3
| Catalyst | Timeline | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 Results | Jan 2026 | Confirm Adj EBITDA Rp 1,8-1,9T |
| 2026 Guidance | Jan 2026 | Signal path to net profitability |
| Q1 2026 Results | Apr 2026 | First quarter showing net profit potential |
| Fintech Loan Book | Ongoing | Target Rp 8T end-2025, watch delinquency |
| ODS Margin | Ongoing | Need stabilization, not further compression |
| AI/Tech Investment | Ongoing | Monitor ROI on Sahabat-AI, infrastructure |
Investor Suitabilityh3
| Type | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Investor | ★★★★★ | Perfect fit - high growth, clear profitability path |
| Long-term (3+ yr) | ★★★★★ | Hold through cycle, capture profitability upside |
| Income Investor | ★☆☆☆☆ | Not suitable - no dividend until 2026+ |
| Value Investor | ★★☆☆☆ | Not for pure value - must believe in growth |
| Trader/Momentum | ★★★☆☆ | Can trade but requires fundamental research |
| Risk-Averse | ★★☆☆☆ | Too volatile, needs stomach for fluctuation |
INVESTMENT THESIS SUMMARYh2
BULL CASE (Optimistic):h3
- ✓ Just achieved first pre-tax profit milestone (Q3 2025)
- ✓ Fintech growing +88% YoY with strong profitability
- ✓ Path to net profitability 2026 credible (analyst consensus)
- ✓ Ecosystem leverage creates competitive moat
- ✓ Balance sheet very strong (net cash Rp 13,4T)
- ✓ Indonesia GDP growth + consumption recovery tailwind
- ✓ BI rate cuts improving credit demand
BEAR CASE (Pessimistic):h3
- ✗ Still loss-making on reported basis (TTM -1,617T)
- ✗ ODS (Gojek) facing intense competition, thin margins
- ✗ Regulation risk in fintech/lending
- ✗ Macro slowdown could hurt Gojek rides + fintech demand
- ✗ P/S 4,15x not cheap, PBV 2,26x slightly premium
- ✗ Execution risk on profitability path not guaranteed
BASE CASE (Realistic):h3
- Company successfully navigates profitability transition
- Fintech becomes dominant profit source by 2026
- ODS margins stabilize even if growth slows
- Ecosystem integration drives efficiency
- By 2026-2027 becomes mature tech company at 20x EV/EBITDA
- Stock compounds to Rp 65-85 over 12-24 months
FINAL VERDICTh2
GOTO is NOT a value trap (like GJTL) and NOT a stable dividend play (like PWON).
GOTO is a GROWTH INFLECTION STORY - company is at the exact moment where:
- ✓ Losses shrinking dramatically (80%+ improvement YoY)
- ✓ Adjusted EBITDA scaling massively (+240% YoY)
- ✓ Pre-tax profitability achieved for first time
- ✓ Path to net profitability clear (2026F analyst consensus)
Investment Recommendation: ACCUMULATE with target Rp 65-85
Best suited for:
- Growth investors with 2-3 year horizon
- Believers in Indonesia’s digital economy
- Those comfortable with tech volatility
- Investors wanting exposure to fintech lending growth
Not suitable for:
- Dividend income seekers
- Pure value investors seeking cheap multiples
- Risk-averse investors
- Those needing positive earnings already
Key Monitoring:
- Monthly: Monitor ODS GTV growth (watch for acceleration, not further slowdown)
- Quarterly: Check Adj EBITDA trajectory (must stay on 1,8-1,9T for FY25)
- Quarterly: Fintech loan book & delinquency (risk indicator)
- Annual: Profitability timeline (watch 2026 guidance credibility)
Disclaimer: Analisis ini berdasarkan data Q3 2025 dan public guidance. Keputusan investasi adalah tanggung jawab investor individual. Pertumbuhan bisnis tidak guaranteed dan bergantung pada eksekusi manajemen dan kondisi makroekonomi.
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