RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Soho Global Health Tbk (SOHO) merupakan perusahaan farmasi dan kesehatan konsumen terkemuka dengan sejarah operasional lebih dari 70 tahun. Pada harga Rp 3.380 per saham per Januari 2026, SOHO menunjukkan kinerja operasional yang kuat dengan pertumbuhan laba bersih 28,9% pada periode sembilan bulan 2025, didorong oleh peningkatan penjualan 6,1% dan perbaikan signifikan dalam arus kas operasional.

Namun, valuasi SOHO saat ini sangat premium dengan rasio harga-terhadap-buku 15,1 kali dan rasio P/E sekitar 27 kali, jauh melampaui rata-rata industri farmasi (15-20 kali). Margin keuntungan bersih yang relatif tipis di 5,5% dan pertumbuhan pendapatan yang moderat menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang kelanjutan pertumbuhan laba yang sedang terjadi. Dividen yang konsisten dengan yield 2% memberikan dukungan defensif, namun tidak cukup untuk membenarkan premium valuasi saat ini.

Rating: HOLD dengan rekomendasi SELECTIVE BUY pada target entry Rp 2.800-3.000 (pullback 12-17% dari harga saat ini). Investor harus menunggu perbaikan teknikal atau penurunan valuasi sebelum membangun posisi signifikan.

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BAGIAN I: PROFIL PERUSAHAAN & OVERVIEW BISNISh2

Sejarah dan Positioning di Pasarh3

PT Soho Global Health Tbk didirikan pada 1956 dengan nama PT Parit Padang, menjadikannya pemain farmasi established dengan 70 tahun pengalaman operasional. Perusahaan mengubah nama menjadi PT Soho Global Health pada Oktober 2010, mencerminkan ekspansi strategis ke produk kesehatan global. Pada 31 Agustus 2020, SOHO melakukan penawaran umum perdana (IPO) dengan mencatatkan 114,4 juta saham pada harga penawaran Rp 1.820 per saham pada Bursa Efek Indonesia.

Saat ini, SOHO adalah produsen dan distributor farmasi terpercaya yang menawarkan portfolio produk kesehatan konsumen yang luas, mencakup kategori dari obat herbal tradisional hingga suplemen kesehatan modern dengan brand recognition yang kuat di pasar Indonesia.

Model Bisnis & Segmentasih3

SOHO beroperasi melalui struktur holding dengan empat entitas anak utama:

1. PT Soho Industri Pharmasi (SIP) - Manufacturing & Development

• Fungsi: Manufaktur farmasi dan pengembangan produk
• Status operasi: Sejak 1951
• Kepemilikan: 100% oleh SOHO
• Produk flagship: Imboost, Curcuma Plus, Diapet, Lelap
• Total aset: Rp 939.7 Miliar (Sept 2025)

2. PT Parit Padang Global (PPG) - Distribution & Marketing

• Fungsi: Distribusi farmasi dan pemasaran produk
• Status operasi: Sejak 2009
• Kepemilikan: 100% oleh SOHO
• Produk: Distribusi melalui multi-level marketing network
• Total aset: Rp 5.716.7 Miliar (Sept 2025) - largest subsidiary

3. PT Universal Health Network (UHN) - MLM Distribution

• Fungsi: Pemasaran farmasi berjenjang (multi-level)
• Status operasi: Sejak 2009
• Kepemilikan: 100% oleh SOHO
• Total aset: Rp 26.0 Miliar (Sept 2025)

4. PT Soho Global Medika (SGM) - Medical Devices

• Fungsi: Distributor peralatan kesehatan
• Status operasi: Belum operasi komersial
• Kepemilikan: 99,8% oleh SOHO
• Total aset: Rp 0 (belum operasional)

Segmen Bisnis Utamah3

Segmen	Deskripsi	Kontribusi	Margin
Professional Products	Produk farmasi untuk profesional kesehatan dan rumah sakit	~50-60%	10-12%
Consumer Health	Produk kesehatan konsumen (suplemen, herbal, OTC)	~35-40%	5-7%
Distribution & MLM	Saluran distribusi multi-level marketing	~10-15%	3-5%
Medical Devices	Peralatan kesehatan (dalam pengembangan)	Minimal	TBD

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BAGIAN II: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL MENDALAMh2

A. Kinerja Keuangan Periode 9 Bulan 2025h3

Pencapaian SOHO dalam sembilan bulan pertama 2025 menunjukkan tren positif yang konsisten:

Metrik	9M 2025	9M 2024	Perubahan	Growth %
Penjualan Neto (Rp M)	7.924.5	7.470.7	+453.8	+6.1%
Biaya Pokok (Rp M)	(6.615.4)	(6.316.4)	(299.0)	+4.7%
Laba Kotor (Rp M)	1.309.1	1.154.3	+154.8	+13.4%
Gross Margin %	16.5%	15.4%	+110 bps	Improvement
Laba Operasi (Rp M)	519.3	425.7	+93.6	+22.0%
Operating Margin %	6.6%	5.7%	+90 bps	Improvement
Laba Bersih (Rp M)	440.1	341.4	+98.7	+28.9% ✓✓
Net Margin %	5.5%	4.6%	+90 bps	Improvement
EPS (Rp)	35	27	+8	+29.6%

Analisis Kualitas Pertumbuhan:

• Pertumbuhan laba bersih 28,9% jauh melampaui pertumbuhan pendapatan 6,1%, menunjukkah operational leverage yang meningkat
• Margin improvement di setiap level (gross, operating, net) mengindikasikan better cost management
• Gain penjualan aset keuangan Rp 29.1 Miliar berkontribusi pada kinerja Q3, perlu dimonitor apakah sustainable
• Beban operasi terkontrol baik dengan efisiensi peningkatan

B. Posisi Keuangan (30 September 2025)h3

Struktur Aset:

Item	Nilai (Rp M)	% Total	Keterangan
Kas & Equivalents	917.2	15.3%	Naik drastis dari Rp 422.4M ✓
Piutang Usaha	2.134.3	35.5%	Normal untuk farmasi
Inventories	1.515.6	25.2%	Turun efisiensi dari Rp 1.622.7M
Aset Lancar Total	5.354.1	89.2%	Strong current assets
Fixed Assets	401.6	6.7%	Moderate capex
Intangible Assets	13.6	0.2%	Minimal
Total Aset	6.005.2	100.0%	Up from Rp 5.412.0M

Struktur Liabilitas & Ekuitas:

Item	Nilai (Rp M)	% Total	Assessment
Utang Usaha	2.654.2	44.2%	Naik dari Rp 2.213.5M
Liabilitas Lancar	2.969.3	49.4%	Working capital pressure
Liabilitas Jangka Panjang	188.9	3.1%	Low long-term debt
Total Liabilitas	3.158.1	52.6%	Up from Rp 2.696.8M
Total Ekuitas	2.847.0	47.4%	Up from Rp 2.715.2M
Book Value/Share	Rp 224	-	Rp 2.847B ÷ 12.692B shares

Analisis Struktur Modal:

• Gearing Ratio: 79,75% (net debt / equity) - sehat dan manageable
• Liabilitas naik Rp 461.3M (17%), tapi diimbangi dengan equity naik Rp 131.8M
• Working capital management mulai tertekan (piutang usaha + inventories naik lebih cepat dari kas)

C. Arus Kas & Likuiditash3

Analisis Arus Kas 9 Bulan 2025 vs 2024:

Aktivitas	9M 2025 (Rp M)	9M 2024 (Rp M)	Perubahan	Keterangan
Operating CF	+702.0	(208.6)	+910.6	MAJOR TURNAROUND ✓✓
Investing CF	+98.6	+19.7	+78.9	Asset sale gains
Financing CF	(305.8)	(162.0)	(143.8)	Dividend payment naik
Net Cash Change	+494.8	(350.9)	+845.7	DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT
Cash Position	917.2	337.6	+579.6	Rp 917M strong

Interpretasi Positif:

• Operating CF swing dari negative menjadi positive Rp 702M adalah breakthrough
• Cash position meningkat 172% year-to-date
• Pembayaran dividen meningkat ke Rp 300.8M (9M 2024) + Rp 33.1 per saham interim (Q3 2025)
• Free cash flow positive mendukung sustainability dividend

D. Rasio Keuangan Kunci (30 Sept 2025)h3

Kategori	Rasio	Target Industry	Penilaian
Likuiditas
Current Ratio	1.80x	1.5-2.0x	✓ Sehat
Quick Ratio	0.91x	0.8-1.0x	✓ Memadai
Profitabilitas
ROE (TTM estimated)	12.6%	10-15%	✓ Acceptable
ROA (TTM estimated)	4.2%	3-5%	✓ Reasonable
Net Profit Margin	5.5%	5-8% pharma	◐ Mid-range
Gross Profit Margin	16.5%	15-20%	✓ Solid
Leverage
Debt-to-Equity	Implied 1.11x	< 1.0x	◐ Slightly high
Gearing Ratio	79.75%	< 80%	◐ Near threshold
Interest Coverage	Implied >3.0x	>2.5x	✓ Safe
Efficiency
Asset Turnover (TTM)	1.35x	1.2-1.5x	✓ Normal
Receivables Days	~100 days	80-120 days	◐ Extended
Inventory Days	~80 days	70-90 days	◐ Elevated

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BAGIAN III: ANALISIS VALUASI KOMPREHENSIFh2

A. Valuasi Relatif - Perbandingan Harga Pasarh3

Pada Harga Rp 3.380 (Jan 17, 2026):

Metrik	SOHO	Rata-rata Industri	Penilaian
Market Cap	Rp 43.0 Triliun	Rp 50-100T (mid-cap)	Mid-cap
P/E Ratio (TTM)	~27.0x	15-20x pharma	MAHAL ✗
P/B Ratio	15.1x	2-4x normal	SANGAT MAHAL ✗
Price to Sales	5.4x	1.5-2.5x	MAHAL ✗
Dividend Yield	2.0%	2-3%	◐ Fair
EV/EBITDA	~25x	10-15x	MAHAL ✗

Interpretasi Valuasi:

• SOHO trading pada premium signifikan ke industri peers
• P/E 27x hanya justified jika pertumbuhan earnings 20-30% sustainable (uncertain)
• P/B 15.1x sangat aggressive untuk mid-cap farmasi dengan margin 5.5%
• Buyer harus percaya pada growth story yang belum terbukti fully execution

B. Valuasi Intrinsik - Multiple Approachesh3

Metode 1: P/E Normalization

• Estimated TTM EPS: Rp 140-150 (extrapolating 9M Rp 35)
• Fair P/E range: 15-18x (normalized pharma)
• Fair Value Range: Rp 2.100-2.700 per saham
• Current Price (Rp 3.380): 26-61% PREMIUM

Metode 2: Book Value Analysis

• Book Value per Share: ~Rp 224
• Fair P/B multiple: 2.0-2.5x (healthy growth pharma)
• Fair Value: Rp 448-560 per saham (book value multiple)
• BUT current Rp 3.380 implies 15.1x P/B = extreme premium
• Actual fair value likely in Rp 2.500-3.200 range

Metode 3: Dividend Discount Model

• Current DPS: Rp 23.7 + Rp 33.1 interim = ~Rp 56.8 (2025 full year estimated)
• Sustainable dividend growth: 10% annually (conservative)
• Required return (WACC): 10-12% (mid-cap pharma)
• DDM Fair Value: Rp 2.400-2.800 per saham

Kesimpulan Valuasi: Fair value SOHO berkisar Rp 2.100-2.800 per saham, dengan current Rp 3.380 mewakili 20-61% premium ke fair value tergantung methodology. Margin of safety NEGATIVE.

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BAGIAN IV: ANALISIS TEKNIKALh2

Chart Pattern Analysish3

Observasi Teknikal:

1. Trend Jangka Panjang (2024-2026):

   • Price action menunjukkan strong uptrend dari trough ~Rp 800 (2024) ke peak >Rp 3.400 (Jan 2026)
   • Pertumbuhan 4x dalam 1 tahun = exceptional rally
   • Tidak ada pullback signifikan, runs yaitu straight-up = overextension risk

2. Support & Resistance Levels:

   • Resistance 1: Rp 3.500 (recent highs, psychological)
   • Resistance 2: Rp 3.800-4.000 (potential if breakout)
   • Support 1: Rp 3.000-3.200 (intermediate support)
   • Support 2: Rp 2.500-2.800 (major support / pullback zone)
   • Support 3: Rp 2.000-2.200 (breaking support = trend break)

3. Technical Indicators (implied dari visual):

   • Volume: Moderate to high (uptrend support)
   • RSI: Likely in 60-75 range (overbought territory)
   • Moving Averages: Price above 20/50/200 day MAs (bullish structure)
   • MACD: Likely showing positive but potential divergence (warning)
   • Stochastic: Potentially in overbought (>80) = reversal risk

4. Pattern Analysis:

   • No consolidation at any level - straight-up move
   • Breakaway gap visible at several points (strong move)
   • Candlestick pattern: Mix of large green bodies with occasional small red (strong buying)

Technical Rating: OVERBOUGHT WITH DOWNSIDE RISKh3

Summary: While trend is up, lack of consolidation, high valuations, and overbought indicators suggest correction coming. Likely support zones: Rp 3.000-3.200 (12-15% pullback).

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BAGIAN V: ANALISIS SENTIMEN & FAKTOR MAKROh2

A. Kondisi Industri Farmasi Indonesia 2025-2026h3

Tailwinds (Positif) untuk Sektor Farmasi:

1. Pertumbuhan Demografi & Healthcare

   • Indonesia populasi 270+ juta dengan aging population
   • Peningkatan healthcare spending per capita
   • Rising awareness for preventive medicine & supplements

2. Government Support

   • Program jaminan kesehatan (BPJS) expansion
   • Deregulation on pharmaceutical imports
   • Infrastructure investment in healthcare

3. Consumer Trends

   • Rising demand untuk herbal & natural products
   • Growing middle class purchasing power
   • E-commerce penetration untuk healthcare products

Headwinds (Negatif) untuk Sektor:

1. Competitive Market

   • Increased competition dari generic producers
   • Price pressure dari government negotiations
   • New entrants + imports dari China/India

2. Regulatory Risks

   • Price ceiling controls oleh government
   • Stricter approval process untuk new products
   • Currency fluctuation (import costs)

3. Consumer Behavior Shifts

   • Shift towards wellness/prevention (lower margin produk)
   • Digital health services competition
   • Preference untuk imported premium brands

B. Strategic Development - SOHO’s Transformation Initiativeh3

Material Announcement (Jan 15, 2025):

• SOHO mengumumkan rencana “Change in Business Activities” (Perubahan Kegiatan Usaha)
• Details dalam attached documents (lamp1, lamp2)
• Ini adalah significant strategic move
• Management menegaskan: “No negative impact to operations or continuity”

Potential Implications:

• Merger/acquisition dengan partner
• Business restructuring untuk efisiensi
• Expansion ke new segments (medical devices, healthcare services)
• Change in ownership/control structure

Investor Impact:

• ✓ Positive IF: Merger creates synergies, enlarges scale, improves margins
• ✗ Negative IF: Dilution, integration risks, execution delays
• ◐ Need more details untuk informed decision

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BAGIAN VI: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, THREATSh2

SWOT Analysis Komprehensifh3

STRENGTHS (Kemampuan Internal)

✓ Sejarah & Brand Heritage

• 70 tahun operating history (established 1956)
• Trusted brands: Imboost, Curcuma Plus, Lelap
• Multi-generational customer loyalty

✓ Earnings Momentum

• Net income +28.9% 9M 2025 (exceptional growth)
• Margin expansion di semua levels
• EPS +29.6% (strong per-share growth)

✓ Dividend Sustainability

• Consistent dividend history (FY2024: Rp 23.7, Interim 2025: Rp 33.1)
• Payout ratio sustainable (~65% 2024)
• Strong free cash flow support dividend

✓ Integrated Business Model

• Manufacturing + Distribution + MLM network
• Vertically integrated = cost control
• Multi-channel revenue streams

✓ Improving Cash Position

• Operating CF swing to positive Rp 702M
• Cash balance at Rp 917M (170% increase YTD)
• Reduced leverage pressure

WEAKNESSES (Keterbatasan Internal)

✗ Expensive Valuation

• P/E 27x vs industry 15-20x (35% premium)
• P/B 15.1x vs pharma 2-3x (excessive premium)
• Limited margin of safety untuk investors

✗ Modest Revenue Growth

• Only 6.1% revenue growth 9M 2025 (below GDP growth)
• No clear path to double-digit organic growth
• Maturing market in Indonesia

✗ Thin Profit Margins

• Net margin 5.5% (low for differentiated pharma)
• Gross margin 16.5% (compressed vs standards)
• Operating margin 6.6% (limited leverage)

✗ Working Capital Pressures

• Receivables days ~100 days (extended collection)
• Inventory days ~80 days (elevated levels)
• Trade payables increased sharply (supplier pressure)

✗ Limited Competitive Moat

• No major exclusive brands or patents
• Faces competition dari generic producers
• MLM model facing regulatory scrutiny globally

OPPORTUNITIES (Faktor Eksternal Positif)

🔑 Healthcare Market Expansion

• Indonesia healthcare spending growing 8-10% annually
• Rising middle class = higher health product consumption
• New demographics demand = expanding TAM

🔑 Product Expansion

• Medical devices (SGM subsidiary not yet operational)
• Healthcare services / e-health integration
• Wellness/preventive products (higher margin)

🔑 Digital & E-commerce

• Growing e-commerce penetration for health products
• Online direct-to-consumer channels
• Digital health services integration

🔑 Strategic Partnerships

• Recent transaction/restructuring could unlock value
• Potential acquisitions or JVs
• Cross-borders opportunities

THREATS (Risiko Eksternal)

⚠️ Regulatory Headwinds

• Government price controls on pharmaceuticals
• Stricter approval process untuk new drugs
• MLM regulations tightening

⚠️ Competitive Intensity

• Low barriers to entry untuk generics
• Pricing pressure dari domestic + international competitors
• Market share erosion risks

⚠️ Macro Risks

• Rupiah depreciation (import cost inflation)
• Interest rate volatility (affects working capital cost)
• Economic slowdown (discretionary health spending)

⚠️ Execution Risk

• Strategic transaction could have integration challenges
• Management changes (CEO changed in 9/2025 per docs)
• Change in business model = uncertainty

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BAGIAN VII: RATING, TARGET PRICE & REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

Investment Rating: HOLDh3

Conviction Level: 6/10 (moderate uncertainty due to valuation vs growth tradeoff)

Current Recommendation:

• For existing holders: HOLD - tidak ada alasan urgent untuk sell, tapi jangan add
• For new investors: WAIT - tunggu pullback atau clarity on strategic transaction
• For aggressive traders: CAUTION - overbought technical, risk of sharp correction

Target Price & Timelineh3

Short-term (3 months)

• Price Target: Rp 3.000-3.200
• Implication: -5% to +5% from current
• Driver: Consolidation, awaiting strategic transaction details
• Catalyst: Earnings pre-announcement, transaction finalization

Medium-term (6-12 months)

• Price Target: Rp 2.500-2.800
• Implication: -17% to -26% from current (pullback expected)
• Driver: Valuation normalization, market rotation
• Catalyst: If earnings decelerate, dividend cut, or macro headwinds

Longer-term (12-24 months)

• Price Target: Rp 2.800-3.500 (range)
• Base Case: Rp 3.000-3.200 (modest growth continuation)
• Bull Case: Rp 3.500-4.000 (if transaction creates value + margins expand)
• Bear Case: Rp 1.800-2.200 (if growth disappoints + multiple compression)

Expected Returns Analysish3

Scenario	Probability	12-Month Target	Implied Return	Key Drivers
Bull Case	20%	Rp 3.500-4.000	+3% to +18%	Strong earnings, transaction success
Base Case	55%	Rp 2.800-3.200	-17% to -5%	Moderate growth, valuation pressure
Bear Case	25%	Rp 1.800-2.200	-35% to -47%	Earnings miss, macro headwinds
Expected Value	-	Rp 2.700	-20%	Risk/reward slightly negative

Conclusion: Expected 12-month return of -20% is UNATTRACTIVE for equity investors. Valuation risk outweighs upside potential at current levels.

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BAGIAN VIII: STRATEGI INVESTASI & RISK MANAGEMENTh2

Entry Strategy untuk Interested Investorsh3

Recommended Accumulation Plan:

Phase	Price Target	Allocation	Timing	Rationale
Phase 1	Rp 3.000-3.200	40%	If pullback 10%	Technical support zone
Phase 2	Rp 2.600-2.900	35%	If further weakness	Better risk/reward
Phase 3	Rp 2.200-2.500	25%	Crisis opportunity	Capitulation bottom

Position Sizing by Risk Tolerance:

• Conservative: 1-2% portfolio = minimal exposure, dividend focus
• Moderate: 2-3% portfolio = balanced risk/reward
• Aggressive: 3-5% portfolio = growth bet, technical setup

Risk Management Rulesh3

Stop Loss Levels:

• Hard stop: Rp 2.000 (if breaks major support, fundamentals deteriorate)
• Trailing stop: 15% below entry (let winners run but protect gains)

Take Profit Levels:

• 1st target: Rp 3.800-4.000 (+12-18% upside) - trim 50%
• 2nd target: Rp 4.500+ (if momentum continues) - trim 30%
• Hold 20% for long-term dividend compounding

Warning Signals to Exit:

• ✗ Earnings miss or guidance cut
• ✗ Dividend cut or suspension
• ✗ Strategic transaction fails or destroys value
• ✗ Technical breakdown below Rp 2.500
• ✗ Macro event (rupiah crash, recession)

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RINGKASAN FINAL DAN REKOMENDASIh2

Investment Thesis Summaryh3

SOHO Global Health Tbk adalah dividend-paying pharmaceutical company dengan kinerja operasional yang improving namun valuasi yang expensive. Pertumbuhan laba 28,9% 9M 2025, cash flow positif, dan consistent dividend payment (2% yield + potential growth) menarik untuk income investors. Namun, P/E 27x, P/B 15.1x, dan modest revenue growth 6,1% tidak dapat dijustifikasi pada harga saat ini tanpa visibility pada transformation strategy.

Final Rating Breakdown:h3

Aspek	Rating	Bobot	Score
Fundamental Strength	B+	35%	2.1
Valuation Attractiveness	D	30%	1.0
Dividend Sustainability	B	20%	1.6
Technical Setup	C-	15%	1.05
OVERALL	C+	100%	5.75/10

Ultimate Recommendation:h3

HOLD untuk existing holders. SELECTIVE BUY untuk new investors ONLY pada Rp 2.800 atau lebih rendah.

Investor yang belum memiliki SOHO lebih baik menunggu perbaikan technical atau news catalyst yang mengklarifikasi strategic direction. Pada harga saat ini (Rp 3.380), valuasi sudah mencerminkan pertumbuhan optimis yang belum terbukti execution-nya.

Untuk dividend seekers: SOHO adalah kandidat dengan 2% yield + potential growth, namun return prospects terbatas di current valuation. Better opportunities likely ada pada sektor lain atau wait for SOHO pullback.

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DISCLAIMER: Analisis ini bersifat edukatif dan research-based. Bukan merupakan financial advice atau investment recommendation. Investor harus melakukan due diligence sendiri dan konsultasi dengan financial advisor sebelum membuat keputusan investasi. Semua proyeksi dan target price memiliki margin error dan actual results dapat berbeda signifikan.