RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Saraswanti Indoland Development Tbk (SWID) adalah real estate developer dengan mixed-use flagship project Mataram City di Yogyakarta. Perusahaan menunjukkan profitabilitas yang solid dengan earnings tumbuh kuat (+151,82% YoY) dan margin operasi tinggi (36,01%), didukung solvency yang kuat (DER 0,60x, Altman Z-Score 6,21). Namun, earnings quality dipertanyakan oleh weak operating cash flow (hanya Rp 2B TTM), negative free cash flow (Rp -6B), dan cash position minimal (Rp 4B)[1].

Valuasi Premium (PER 17,14x vs pasar 8,69x) tidak fully justified untuk company dengan cash flow issues. Ini adalah profitable company TAPI dengan execution risk pada cash generation dan liquidity management.

Key Data Points:

• ✓ Net Income TTM: Rp 37B (profitable)
• ✓ Margin excellent: Net 22,35%, Operating 36,01%
• ✓ ROE strong: 14,21%
• ✓ Revenue growth solid: +42,09% YoY
• ✓ Solvency healthy: DER 0,60x, CR 5,74x
• ⚠️ Operating Cash Flow: only Rp 2B (TOO LOW!)
• ⚠️ Free Cash Flow: negative Rp -6B
• ⚠️ Cash position: tiny Rp 4B
• ⚠️ Micro-cap (Rp 641B market cap): illiquid
• ⚠️ PER 17,14x premium: needs cash flow improvement to justify

Rekomendasi: HOLD pada harga current Rp 92, ACCUMULATE only on weakness to Rp 70-75.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & BUSINESS PROFILEh2

Business Overviewh3

PT Saraswanti Indoland Development Tbk (SWID) adalah anak perusahaan dari Saraswanti Group, established 2010, listed IPO July 2022[131][136]. Perusahaan fokus pada pengembangan properti high-rise buildings dengan portfolio:

1. Mataram City (Flagship Project)

• Lokasi: Yogyakarta (mixed-use development)
• Terdiri dari: 2x Tower Apartemen (19 lantai), 1x Tower Condotel (19 lantai), Convention Center
• Partner: The Alana Yogyakarta Hotel (operated by Archipelago International) + MICC (Mataram City International Convention Center)
• Market Position: Premium residential + hospitality hub[131][134][139]

2. Graha Indoland

• Tower Condotel 8 lantai
• Operated as Innside by Melia Yogyakarta[131][136]

3. The Royal Alana Yogyakarta (Under Construction)

• 219 premium hotel rooms (bintang lima)
• Completion targeted untuk strengthen hotel capacity[139]

Financial Profile - Q3 2025h3

Metric	Value	Assessment
Revenue TTM	Rp 169B	Small but growing
Net Income TTM	Rp 37B	✓ Positive, growing
Operating Cash Flow	Rp 2B	❌ EXTREMELY LOW
Free Cash Flow	Rp -6B	❌ NEGATIVE
Cash Position	Rp 4B	❌ CRITICAL LOW

Valuation Metricsh3

Metric	Value	Peer Avg	Status
PER TTM	17,14x	8,69x	97% PREMIUM
PBV	2,43x	~1,5-2,0x	Fairly valued
P/S	3,80x	~2-3x	Slight premium
P/CF	310,32x	-	EXTREME (earnings quality concern)
EV/EBITDA	14,00x	~10-12x	Premium

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TAHAP 2: PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS - Strong But Quality Questionedh2

Margin Structure (Excellent)h3

Gross Profit Margin:      61.49% ✓ VERY HIGH
Operating Profit Margin:  36.01% ✓ VERY HIGH
Net Profit Margin:        22.35% ✓ VERY HIGH

Assessment: High margin business model reflects:

• Premium property development positioning
• Hotel operations with strong pricing power
• Convention center rental yields
• Limited wage/material cost competition in Yogyakarta[134][139]

Return Metrics (Good But Not Exceptional)h3

Metric	Value	Assessment
ROE	14,21%	Good (need >15% for premium)
ROA	7,93%	Reasonable
ROCE	13,61%	Adequate

Growth Performance - Strongh3

Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024:

• Revenue Growth: +42,09% YoY
• Gross Profit Growth: +25,51% YoY
• Net Income Growth: +151,82% YoY (from low base Q3 2024: Rp 4B)[1][134]

Earnings Acceleration:

• Q3 2024: Rp 4B
• Q3 2025: Rp 10B (+150%)[134]

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TAHAP 3: CASH FLOW RED FLAG - THE CRITICAL ISSUEh2

Operating Cash Flow Crisish3

TTM Operating Cash Flow: Only Rp 2 Miliar ⚠️

This is EXTREMELY LOW for company with:
- Revenue Rp 169B TTM
- Net Income Rp 37B TTM
- EBITDA Rp 58B TTM
→ OCF should be Rp 30-40B, not Rp 2B!

What This Means:

1. Earnings NOT being converted to cash
2. Possible revenue recognition issues (pre-delivery property sales?)
3. High working capital requirements
4. Business model cash generation poor

Free Cash Flow - NEGATIVEh3

Operating Cash Flow:      Rp 2B
Capital Expenditure:      -Rp 8B
FREE CASH FLOW:           Rp -6B ❌ NEGATIVE!

Critical Issue: Company burning cash despite profitability on P&L. Typical signs:

• Heavy construction capex (projects under development)
• Large unearned revenue (pre-sales of units, not yet delivered)
• Working capital increase (inventory buildup)

Cash Position - Minimalh3

Current Cash: Only Rp 4B

vs. Total Debt: Rp 159B → Cash/Debt ratio = 2.5%
vs. Short-term Debt: Rp 5B → Coverage = 0.8x (problematic)

Risk: If operating cash flow stays at Rp 2B monthly burn rate:

• Cash depletes in ~2 months if no financing
• Must refinance or sell projects to maintain liquidity
• Micro-cap makes capital raise difficult

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TAHAP 4: SOLVENCY - Strong on Balance Sheet But Cash Flow Weakh2

Leverage Metrics (Healthy)h3

Metric	Value	Safe Range	Status
Debt-to-Equity	0,60x	< 1,0x	✓ Good
Interest Coverage	20,83x	>5x	✓ Excellent
Current Ratio	5,74x	>1,5x	✓ Strong
Altman Z-Score	6,21	>3,0x	✓ Safe

Assessment: Balance sheet appears very healthy on traditional metrics.

BUT: Working Capital Quality Concernh3

Working Capital (Quarter): Rp 253B

• Current Assets: Mostly inventory/land bank (illiquid)
• Current Liabilities: Mostly customer advances/deposits

Problem:

• Large portion of “assets” are land bank & construction WIP (not cash-convertible)
• Revenue often recognized upon delivery (future years)
• Creates illusion of liquidity (CR 5.74x) but actual cash position tight

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TAHAP 5: VALUASI - PREMIUM JUSTIFIED?h2

PER Analysish3

Current PER: 17,14x (vs IHSG median 8,69x = 97% premium)

Justification Check:

For PER 17x premium over market, company needs:
1. ✓ Earnings growth >20% p.a. → ACHIEVED (+151% YoY) ✓
2. ✓ High ROE >15% → PARTIAL (14.21%, close enough) ~
3. ✓ Consistent cash generation → MISSING ✗
4. ✓ Strong competitive moat → PARTIAL (location, brand)

Verdict: PER 17x only justified IF cash flow improves. Currently 1-2x too expensive on cash basis.

Fair Value Scenariosh3

Scenario	Price	Basis	Probability
Bear (cash flow miss)	Rp 70	PER 12x	25%
Base (normalized)	Rp 85	PER 13-14x	50%
Bull (cash improves)	Rp 110	PER 16x	25%

Current Rp 92 = Slightly optimistic case pricing.

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TAHAP 6: RISKS & CATALYSTSh2

Key Risksh3

1. Cash Flow Deterioration (MEDIUM-HIGH)

   • If capex increases or project delays
   • Cash position already minimal
   • Could force financing or asset sales

2. Property Market Slowdown (MEDIUM)

   • Yogyakarta property absorption slowing
   • Competition from larger developers
   • Economic slowdown reducing demand

3. Liquidity Crisis (MEDIUM)

   • Low free float (20,33%) = illiquid micro-cap
   • Cash burn unsustainable long-term
   • Difficulty raising capital if needed

4. Hotel Segment Volatility (LOW-MEDIUM)

   • Tourism dependent
   • Occupancy rates fluctuate
   • Competition from other Yogyakarta hotels

5. Interest Rate Risk (LOW)

   • High leverage (Rp 159B debt) at rising rates
   • But interest coverage strong currently

Positive Catalystsh3

1. The Royal Alana Completion

   • Adds 219 premium hotel rooms
   • Improves hotel revenue contribution
   • Completion 2026 expected[139]

2. Cash Flow Improvement

   • As Mataram City units delivered → cash inflows
   • Should improve OCF significantly
   • Maybe 2026F timing

3. Dividend Growth

   • Current payout 13,07% of earnings
   • Sustainable for 0,94/share = low yield
   • Could increase if capex completes

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TAHAP 7: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: HOLD / ACCUMULATE ON DIPSh3

Investment Thesis: SWID adalah profitable, high-margin real estate developer dengan strong fundamentals BUT quality of earnings questioned by weak cash flow. Premium valuation (PER 17x) needs cash generation improvement to justify.

Not suitable for:

• Cash flow purists (FCF negative)
• Income investors (dividend yield low 0,84%)
• Risk-averse (micro-cap liquidity)

Suitable for:

• Growth investors (earnings +151% YoY)
• Value buyers on dips (PBV 2.43x reasonable)
• Long-term property investors (believe in Yogyakarta market)

Price Action Planh3

Action	Price Level	Rationale
BUY	Rp 70-75	20-25% below current, good value
HOLD	Rp 85-100	Fair value range
TAKE PROFIT	Rp 115+	Near bull case, exit 50%
STOP LOSS	Rp 60	Break support, thesis broken

Time Horizonh3

Recommended: 2-3 years (wait for:)

1. The Royal Alana completion (2026)
2. Cash flow normalization post-project completion
3. Full earnings visibility on Mataram City sales cycle

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KESIMPULANh2

SWID adalah quality company dengan execution question on cash generation. Strong P&L profitability (net margin 22%, ROE 14%) impressive BUT:

• Earnings quality concern (OCF only Rp 2B vs NI Rp 37B)
• Cash position minimal (Rp 4B only)
• Valuasi premium (PER 17x) needs improvement to justify
• Micro-cap illiquid characteristics increase risk

Recommendation: HOLD current positions, ACCUMULATE only on weakness to Rp 70-80 range. Wait for cash flow improvement visible before adding.

Current Rp 92 is slightly expensive on cash basis, fair on earnings basis. Margin of safety insufficient for micro-cap risk profile.

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Disclaimer: Analisis berdasarkan KeyStats Q3 2025. SWID adalah micro-cap dengan characteristics micro-cap (illiquidity, volatility, limited institutional coverage). Cash flow weakness perlu monitoring ketat. Suitable only for investors comfortable with cash flow risk dan micro-cap characteristics.