Tanggal Analisis: 22 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 795 per lembar
Sektor: Properti & Real Estate (Residential, Mixed-Use, Commercial)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 3,573 Triliun
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 4,55 Miliar lembar

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - TUNGGU / SPEKUIATIF BUYh2

Rating: 🟡 TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE BUY (Perusahaan Developer dengan Turnaround Story, Tapi Risiko Tinggi, Balance Sheet Stressed, Recovery Execution Kritis)

TRIN adalah developer properti mid-tier yang sedang dalam fase recovery pasca-pandemi dengan proyek-proyek besar dalam tahap advanced completion (serah terima dimulai 2026). Fundamentalnya menunjukkan tanda-tanda turnaround, namun masih dalam kondisi “touch and go” - banyak risiko execution yang bisa derail recovery narrative.

Status Kritis (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & Sebelumnya):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan (TTM)	Rp 204 Miliar	Kecil, tapi sedang recover (revenue recognition PSAK 72)
Laba Kotor (TTM)	Rp 49 Miliar	Margin 24%, decent untuk property
EBITDA (TTM)	Rp (103) MILIAR	🔴 NEGATIVE EBITDA
Laba Bersih (TTM)	Rp (60) MILIAR	RUGI BESAR
Laba K3 2025	Rp 30 MILIAR	Positif, tapi anomali
Margin Bersih TTM	-29,4%	🔴 LOSS
ROE TTM	-11,13%	Value destruction
Dividen	TIDAK ADA	No shareholder return

Situasi Paradoks:

1. ✓ Operasi sedang recover - Laba K3 2025 positif Rp 30M (revenue PSAK 72 dari serah terima)
2. 🔴 Tapi TTM masih rugi besar - Rp 60M loss (akumulasi kerugian 2023-2024 masih membayang)
3. 🔴 EBITDA negatif - Rp 103M, menunjukkan operasi belum profitable
4. 🔴 Arus operasi negatif - Rp 22 Miliar (cash burn meski ada revenue)
5. 🔴 Balance sheet stress - Utang Rp 1.625T vs equity Rp 541M (D/E 3.0x)
6. ✓ Pipeline proyek besar - Collins Boulevard, Sequoia Hills, Holdwell serah terima 2026
7. ✓ Management confident - December 2025 statement kalau target 2025 tercapai

Kesimpulan Awal: TRIN adalah turnaround play - bukan untuk conservative investor. Kalau serah terima proyek berjalan lancar (2026), bisa rebound signifikan. Kalau ada hambatan (keterlambatan, penurunan demand), risiko loss >50%. Speculative untuk high-risk tolerance only.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN KRITISh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 22 Desember 2025)h3

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	204 M	101 M	110 M	138 M
Laba Kotor	49 M	24 M	30 M	31 M
EBITDA	(103) M 🔴	(67) M	(15) M	9 M
Laba Bersih	(60) M 🔴	1 M	30 M	(11) M

⚠️ CRITICAL OBSERVATION:

K3 2025 laba Rp 30M positif, tapi TTM masih rugi Rp 60M. Artinya: K1-K2 2025 combined rugi besar, K3 recover.

Kemungkinan: K1-K2 belum ada serah terima (pre-PSAK 72), K3 mulai terima unit (revenue terjadi).

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	Per Saham (Rp)
K1 2025	1.000	0,9%	0,22
K2 2025	(3.000)	-2,8%	(0,66)
K3 2025	30.000	27,3%	6,59
Total 9M	28.000	27,7%	6,15

🟡 Tren aneh: K1 minimal profit, K2 besar loss, K3 besar profit. Menunjukkan timing revenue recognition irregular.

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
Laba Per Saham (TTM)	Rp (13,22) 🔴
Laba Per Saham (Annual)	Rp 8,34
Pendapatan Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 44,81
Kas Per Saham	Rp 4,33
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 118,78
Arus Kas Bebas Per Saham	Rp 4,35

⚠️ EPS TTM negatif Rp 13,22 - tapi annual estimate positif Rp 8,34 (based on K3 tren).

Neraca (Kuartal Terakhir - Q3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas	20
Total Aset	2.098
Total Utang	1.625
Total Ekuitas	541
Utang Jangka Panjang	-
Utang Jangka Pendek	- (semua current)
Total Utang	-
Utang Bersih	(20) = CASH POSITIVE
Modal Kerja	474

⚠️ STRESS SIGNAL: Utang Rp 1.625T, equity hanya Rp 541M = D/E 3.0x = VERY HIGH.

Semua utang SHORT-TERM = perlu refinance dalam 12 bulan. Kalau pasar stress, bisa tight liquidity.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	22 ✓
Investasi	(29)
Arus Kas Bebas	(7) 🔴
Dari Pendanaan	7

🔴 OCF positif Rp 22M tapi FCF negatif Rp 7M - tidak sustainable untuk payout dividen.

Dari pendanaan +Rp 7M = refinance liabilities.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 795):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	-59,39x	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss)
P/E (Annual)	94,08x	🔴 MAHAL
Harga/Nilai Buku	6,61x	🔴 SANGAT PREMIUM
Harga/Penjualan	17,52x	🔴 SANGAT MAHAL
EV/EBITDA	-34,00x	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss EBITDA)
Hasil Dividen	-	(No dividen)
Hasil Earning	-1,68%	🔴 NEGATIVE (EPS negatif)

🔴 Valuasi SANGAT MAHAL untuk perusahaan unprofitable (TTM) dengan high debt.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	-12,55% 🔴
Margin Operasi	-202,17% 🔴
Margin Laba Bersih	354,05% 🔤

⚠️ ANOMALI: Gross profit margin NEGATIVE? Operating margin amat negatif? Bersih margin positif 354%?

Ini menunjukkan one-time gain atau biaya unusual masking akuntansi. Likely: reversal kerugian atau gain dari serah terima unit.

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 vs Tahun Lalu):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	-91,10% 🔴
Laba Kotor	-103,97% 🔴
Laba Bersih	+380,24% ✓

⚠️ Revenue JATUH 91% YoY - tapi laba NAIK 380%. Ini karena basis pembanding rendah (K3 2024 loss Rp 11M vs K3 2025 profit Rp 30M).

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	1,63x	🟡 OK (>1,0 minimal)
Rasio Cepat	0,14x	🔴 SANGAT RENDAH (aset illiquid)
Utang/Ekuitas	3,01x	🔴 SANGAT TINGGI
Total Utang/Aset	0,61x	🔴 TINGGI (61% aset financed by debt)
Kemampuan Bayar Bunga	(7,02)	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss, tidak bisa bayar bunga dari laba)
Skor Altman	1,23	⚠️ ABU-ABU (1,1-2,6)

🔴 SKOR ALTMAN 1,23 = FINANCIAL DISTRESS ZONE. Property company dalam zona bankruptcy risk.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
Hasil Aset (ROA)	-2,87% 🔴
Hasil Ekuitas (ROE)	-11,13% 🔴
Return Modal Bekerja	-8,27% 🔴
Return Modal Tertanam	-23,06% 🔴

🔴 Semua return NEGATIVE - shareholder capital sedang dievaluasi.

B. Konteks Historis & Tren Recovery (dari Penelitian)h3

Timeline Proyek TRIN:

Proyek	Lokasi	Status	Target Serah Terima
Collins Boulevard Tower I (The Hyde)	Tangerang	✓ SELESAI	Agustus 2022+ (done)
Collins Boulevard Tower II (The Scott)	Tangerang	Struktur (lantai 15/32)	Q4 2026
Sequoia Hills Cluster I (The Leroy)	Sentul	Produksi massal + serah terima	2025-2026
Sequoia Hills Cluster II (Earthville)	Sentul	Struktur	Q3 2026
Condovilla Paul & Prive	Batam	Topping off (Maret 2025)	Q3 2026
Holdwell Business Park	Bandar Lampung	Infrastruktur + fondasi	Q1 2026 topping, Q4 2026 terima

Analisis Timeline:

✓ The Hyde (Collins I) sudah diserahkan 2022+ → revenue sudah terakui ✓ Sequoia Hills sedang serah terima bertahap → revenue mulai terakui K3 2025 ✓ Multiple projects serah terima Q1-Q4 2026 → revenue akan ACCELERATE 2026

🟡 Timing Revenue PSAK 72 Penting: Serah terima unit = revenue recognized. Jadi K4 2025 forward akan lihat spike revenue.

Historical Kinerja:

Dari research H1 2025: Laba Rp 5 Miliar (growth 110% vs H1 2024). Sebelum itu loss 2023-2024.

Recovery Narrative:

2023-2024: Project execution delayed (COVID, financing), margin squeeze, loss 2025: Proyek accelerate completion, serah terima dimulai, laba recovery 2026: Multiple project completion, revenue spike, profitability rebound

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industri (Analisis Properti)h3

Industri Properti Indonesia Konteks:

Aspek	Status
Cycle	Recovery (2023-2025) post-COVID
Growth Drivers	Urban migration, affordability demand, luxury segment
Demand	Moderat-good (mixed: segment tertentu down, luxury up)
Inventory	High (banyak oversupply apartemen)

Kompetitor Utama:

Kompetitor	Ukuran	Strategi
Alam Sutera (ASRI)	Besar	Master-planned communities
Agung Podomoro Land (APLN)	Besar	Luxury + mixed-use
Sinar Mas Land (SMLS)	Raksasa	Diversifikasi properti
Pikko Land	Menengah	Affordable housing
Triniti Land (TRIN)	KECIL-MENENGAH	Mixed-use urban projects

Posisi TRIN:

✓ Strengths:

• Lokasi strategis proyek (Tangerang, Sentul, Lampung tier-1/2)
• Mixed-use concept (apartment + retail + office) diversifikasi revenue
• Beberapa project kesuksesan (Collins phase 1 terjual baik)
• Serah terima dimulai 2026 = revenue acceleration expected

🔴 Weaknesses:

• Scale KECIL vs kompetitor (nilai proyek < Rp 5T vs ASRI/APLN ratusan triliun)
• Oversupply apartment market (khususnya segment mid-tier Tangerang)
• Balance sheet stressed (D/E 3.0x, utang short-term)
• Profitabilitas masih belum sustainable (TTM loss)
• Track record execution inconsistent (timeline sering delay)
• Brand awareness lower vs major developers

🟡 Opportunities:

• Logistic park, data center expansion (strategi baru - Q1 2026)
• Affordable housing demand (government push)
• Green development trend (TRIN claim eco-friendly)
• Sentul area development (regional growth)

🔴 Threats:

• Real estate cycle downturn (jika economy recede)
• Interest rate hike (impact affordability & financing)
• Regulatory changes (property tax, foreign ownership)
• Competitor aggressive (undercutting price)
• Oversupply apartment market
• Execution risk (proyek delay = cash flow defer)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE TTM, TAPI TURNING POINT K3

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024
Margin Kotor	Anomali	24%	24%	23%
Margin Operasi	Anomali	-4%	-50%	-40%
Margin Bersih	354% (anomali)	1%	-29%	-30%

Analisis:

🔴 TTM Margin Bersih -29% = tidak sustainable. Kerugian Rp 60M dari Rp 204M revenue.

✓ K3 2025 turning point - laba Rp 30M positif (margin 27% - anomali tapi tren baik)

🟡 Penyebab:

• 2023-2024: Project belum complete → no revenue (but cost ongoing) → loss
• 2025: Serah terima dimulai → revenue spike (PSAK 72) → profit
• Forward: Multiple proyek serah terima → higher profitability

Berkelanjutan?

🔴 TTM tidak sustainable. Tapi forward (2026 onwards) bisa normalize ke 5-15% margin jika serah terima lancar.

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: 🟡 POSITIVE OCF TAPI NEGATIVE FCF, BALANCE SHEET STRESSED

Komponen	Nilai
Arus Operasi	22 M ✓
Investasi	(29) M
Arus Kas Bebas	(7) M 🔴
Dari Pendanaan	7 M (refinance)

Analisis:

✓ OCF positif Rp 22M - bisnis mulai generate cash

🔴 FCF negatif Rp 7M - setelah capex, cash negative

⚠️ Dari pendanaan +Rp 7M = refinance & new borrowing untuk cover FCF gap.

Working Capital:

✓ Positif Rp 474M, rasio lancar 1,63x OK.

Tapi QUICK RATIO hanya 0,14 = aset illiquid. Menunjukkan banyak inventory (property inventory, WIP).

Sustainability:

🟡 Tight tapi OK untuk 2025-2026 jika:

• Serah terima on schedule (cash inflow)
• Tidak ada unexpected expense
• Market property tetap resilient

🔴 Risiko: Jika serah terima delayed atau demand weak, cash flow bisa squeeze drastis.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🔴 LEVERAGE TINGGI, SKOR ALTMAN DISTRESS, RISIKO REFINANCE

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Utang/Ekuitas	3,01x	🔴 SANGAT TINGGI
Total Utang/Aset	61%	🔴 TINGGI
Rasio Lancar	1,63x	🟡 OK tapi marginal
Quick Ratio	0,14x	🔴 SANGAT RENDAH
Skor Altman	1,23	🔴 FINANCIAL DISTRESS

🔴 D/E 3.0x = VERY HIGH

Artinya setiap Rp 1 equity, ada Rp 3 utang. Leverage sangat besar.

Risiko:

• Equity cushion tipis (jika loss Rp 300M, equity habis)
• Jika aset price decline (property value down), DER ratio worse

🔴 SKOR ALTMAN 1,23 = DISTRESS ZONE (1,1-2,6 = grey zone, < 1,1 = danger)

Tapi company bukan bankruptcy imminent (balance sheet positive, OCF positive). Lebih tepat: “financial stress tapi sustainable jika operasi improve”.

🔴 ALL DEBT SHORT-TERM = perlu refinance 12 bulan

Risk: Jika market stress, akses kredit terbatas, refinance mahal/tidak bisa.

Mitigation:

• Serah terima on-schedule (cash-in to reduce leverage)
• Asset-backed financing (gunakan inventory/finished property as collateral)
• Equity injection dari owner/investor (dilute current shareholder)

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE, TAPI PATH TO POSITIVE CLEAR

Metrik	Nilai	Target 2026+
ROE	-11,13%	→ +15-20%
ROA	-2,87%	→ +5-10%
ROIC	-23,06%	→ +10-15%

Analisis:

🔴 ROE -11% = shareholder capital eroding.

✓ Clear path to positive: Serah terima proyek → revenue → profit → ROE positive.

If 2026 laba Rp 100-150M (conservative estimate):

• ROE = 150M / 541M = 27% (good)
• ROA = 150M / 2098M = 7% (OK)

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🔴 TIDAK ADA DIVIDEN, PURE CAPITAL GAIN PLAY

Tahun	Dividen	Catatan
2024	-	No dividen (loss)
2025	-	No dividen expected
2026+	Possible	Jika profit, dividen bisa di-initiate

Analisis:

🔴 Tidak ada dividen sekarang = pure capital appreciation play.

Investor return bergantung 100% pada stock price appreciation (not recurring cash returns).

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🔴 Negative TTM, Turning K3	2/5
2. Arus Kas	🟡 OCF OK, FCF negative	2,5/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🔴 High leverage, Distress	1,5/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 Negative now, Path positive	2/5
5. Dividen	🔴 None	0/5
RATA-RATA	🔴 DISTRESS TURNAROUND	1.6/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi financial distress tapi dengan clear recovery path. Kalau serah terima proyek berjalan lancar, bisa rebound signifikan. Tapi risiko tinggi jika ada hambatan.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 795h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	-59,39x	🔴 MEANINGLESS (loss)
P/E (Annual)	94,08x	🔴 SANGAT MAHAL
Harga/Nilai Buku	6,61x	🔴 PREMIUM GANDA
Harga/Penjualan	17,52x	🔴 SANGAT MAHAL
EV/EBITDA	-34,00x	🔴 NEGATIVE (loss EBITDA)

🔴 Valuasi SANGAT PREMIUM untuk perusahaan distress & unprofitable.

Fair Value Estimationh3

Method 1: Net Asset Value (Adjusted)

• Book value (equity): Rp 541 Miliar
• Adjustment for property values (revalued): Estimate +Rp 300-500M (property assets undervalued)
• Adjusted equity: Rp 840-1.040 Miliar
• Per share: Rp 184-228 (if no dilution)

🔴 Fair value NAV: Rp 180-230 per lembar (assuming no further loss & property revaluation)

Method 2: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF Turnaround)

Base Case (50% prob):

• 2026 FCF: Rp 50M (serah terima improve cash)
• 2027 FCF: Rp 100M (multiple projects complete)
• Terminal growth: 3%
• WACC: 15% (high risk premium untuk recovery)
• Value: Rp 50M/(0,15-0,03) = Rp 417M market cap = Rp 91/share

Bull Case (30% prob):

• 2026 FCF: Rp 150M (strong execution)
• Terminal: Rp 1.500M/0,12 = Rp 12.500M market cap = Rp 2.747/share (unrealistic)

Actually this is too optimistic. Realistic bull:

• 2026-2027 cumulative EBIT Rp 250M
• Valuation 8-10x EBIT = Rp 2.000-2.500M market cap = Rp 440-550/share

Bear Case (20% prob):

• Serah terima delay/demand weak
• FCF negative terus
• Forced asset sale, debt restructuring
• Value: Rp 50-100/share

Kesimpulan Valuasih3

Model	Fair Value
NAV Adjusted	Rp 180-230
DCF Base	Rp 91
DCF Bull	Rp 440-550
DCF Bear	Rp 50-100
Consensus Range	Rp 90-550
Current Price	Rp 795
Assessment	🔴 OVERPRICED (worst case), FAIR to CHEAP (bull case)

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIOh2

Skenario Positif / Bull (Probability 30%)h3

Pemicu:

• Serah terima berjalan on-schedule (2026)
• Demand tetap strong (real estate cycle continue)
• Multiple proyek simultaneous completion → revenue spike
• Profit margin normalize 8-12%
• Debt reduction dari inflow serah terima
• Investor confidence return, stock rerate

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 600-800 Miliar (3-4x 2025)
• EBIT: Rp 150-200 Miliar (margin 20-25%)
• Laba Bersih: Rp 120-160 Miliar (after tax/interest)
• EPS: Rp 26-35
• Fair P/E: 15-18x (growth company)
• Harga Target: Rp 390-630
• Return: -51 to -21% (downside dari Rp 795!)

⚠️ Even in bull case, return negatif jika base price Rp 795!

Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 50%)h3

Pemicu:

• Serah terima with minor delays
• Demand moderate (some segments weak)
• Revenue Rp 400-500M 2026
• Laba: Rp 40-60M (thin margin 8-12%)
• Debt reduction gradual
• Stock price stabilize/slight appreciation

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 400-500 Miliar
• EBIT: Rp 40-60 Miliar
• Laba: Rp 30-50 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 6,6-11
• Fair P/E: 10-12x (moderate)
• Harga Target: Rp 66-132
• Return: -83% (major crash)

Skenario Pesimis / Bear (Probability 20%)h3

Pemicu:

• Serah terima significant delays (>6 months)
• Demand collapse (real estate cycle down)
• Forced debt restructuring (covenant breach)
• Asset sale at loss
• Bankruptcy risk / dilutive equity raise

Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 200M (stagnant)
• Laba: Loss Rp 50M (margin squeezed)
• D/E ratio spike (refinance fails)
• Stock: Distressed valuation

Harga Target: Rp 20-50 Return: -94 to -94% (total loss)

Nilai Harapan (Tertimbang)h3

Skenario	Peluang	Return	Tertimbang
Positif	30%	-35%	-10,5%
Base	50%	-83%	-41,5%
Pesimis	20%	-94%	-18,8%
HARAPAN	100%	-72%	-70,8%

🔴 EXPECTED RETURN: -70,8% dalam 2 tahun (probability weighted).

Downside materially outweigh upside.

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif:h3

1. ✓ Serah terima on-schedule Q1-Q4 2026 - cash inflow critical
2. ✓ Demand tetap kuat - unit pre-launch/pre-sales lancar
3. ✓ Margin improvement - operational leverage dari volume
4. ✓ Debt reduction - leverage ratio improve
5. ✓ Logistics/data center expansion - new revenue stream (Q1 2026)

Red Flags (EXIT jika terjadi):h3

• 🔴 Serah terima delay >3 bulan
• 🔴 Debt covenant breach / refinance warning
• 🔴 Demand slowdown (units unsold)
• 🔴 Accounting restatement / audit qualified
• 🔴 Equity dilution announcement (rights issue massive)
• 🔴 Management exit

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 TUNGGU / SPECULATIVE BUYh3

Untuk PEMEGANG SAHAM EXISTING:

• ⚠️ HOLD dengan tight stop-loss di Rp 500-600
• Tidak ambil position baru sekarang
• Expect volatilitas tinggi forward
• Dividen tidak ada - pure appreciation play
• Expected return forward NEGATIVE (-70% prob-weighted)

Untuk CALON PEMBELI BARU:

• 🟡 TUNGGU untuk entry jika:
  • Harga turun ke Rp 400-500 (lebih discount)
  • Serah terima positif news (de-risk narrative)
  • Debt ratio improve (refinance sukses)
• 🔴 HINDARI sekarang di Rp 795 kecuali:
  • High risk tolerance
  • Conviction serah terima lancar (contrarian bet)
  • Can hold 2-3 tahun tanpa panic
  • Portfolio allocation kecil (< 5%)

Target Hargah3

Periode	Harga Target	Return	Peluang
3 Bulan	Rp 500-700	-12 to -37%	40%
6 Bulan	Rp 400-600	-25 to -50%	50%
12 Bulan	Rp 200-400	-50 to -75%	50%
Bull Case (2026+)	Rp 390-630	-21 to -51%	30%
Base Case (2026+)	Rp 66-132	-83%	50%
Bear Case (2026+)	Rp 20-50	-94 to -94%	20%

Siapa Cocok Membeli TRIN?h3

Tipe Investor	Rekomendasi	Alasan
Conservative	🔴 SKIP	Risk profile not suitable
Value Investor	⚠️ WAIT	Beli saat harga Rp 200-400 (deep discount)
Growth Investor	🟡 MAYBE	Ada pertumbuhan 2026+ IF execution lancar
Turnaround Specialist	🟡 RISKY	Interesting thesis tapi >70% probability fail
Spekulant	🔴 SKIP	Expected return NEGATIVE
Real Estate Bull	🟡 MAYBE	Jika conviction property cycle naik

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MONITORING CHECKLISTh2

Pantau Setiap Bulan:

1. Serah Terima Progress - on-schedule atau delay?
2. Pre-Sales Pipeline - ada kontrak baru?
3. Debt Refinance - berhasil atau default warning?
4. Construction Update - proyek melaju atau hambatan?
5. Market Sentiment - real estate cycle trend

Quarterly:

1. Revenue & Margin - realisasi vs guidance
2. Cash Position - improvement atau deteriorate?
3. Debt Ratio - D/E improve atau worse?
4. Profit Realization - laba turning point sustainable?

Red Flags (IMMEDIATE EXIT):

• 🔴 Serah terima delay announcement
• 🔴 Covenant breach / debt default warning
• 🔴 Demand collapse (units returned, presale slow)
• 🔴 Equity dilution >20% (rights issue)
• 🔴 Management departure / scandal

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KESIMPULANh2

PT Perintis Triniti Properti Tbk adalah perusahaan TURNAROUND play dengan high-risk, high-reward profile:

🔴 Fundamental Stress:

• TTM loss Rp 60M (unprofitable)
• EBITDA negative Rp 103M
• D/E 3.0x (very high leverage)
• Skor Altman 1,23 (distress zone)
• No dividen, pure capital appreciation

✓ Recovery Narrative:

• Serah terima dimulai Q3 2025 (The Leroy, Condovilla)
• Major projects completion Q1-Q4 2026
• Expected revenue acceleration 3-4x
• Profit inflection potential jika execution lancar

🔴 Valuasi Tidak Attractive:

• Harga Rp 795 overpriced
• Even bull case returns -21 to -51%
• Base case -83% crash
• Fair value estimate Rp 90-550 (wide range = high uncertainty)

🔴 Expected Return:

• Probability-weighted: -70,8% dalam 2 tahun
• Risk/reward tidak balance
• 80% probability loss vs 20% gain

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Rekomendasi Akhir: TUNGGU atau SKIP. Jangan beli sekarang di Rp 795.

Analisis dibuat 22 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & H1 2025 data, ditambah riset proyek dan industri properti terbaru.