DOOH (Era Media Sejahtera) - Analisis Mendalamh1

Pertumbuhan Agresif dengan Valuasi Ekstrem & Arus Kas Negatifh2

Tanggal Analisis: 6 Desember 2025
Kode Saham: DOOH
Nama Perusahaan: PT Era Media Sejahtera Tbk
Sektor: Advertising & Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH)
Harga Terbaru: Rp 280/saham
Rating: ⚠️ GROWTH STORY dengan VALUASI BUBBLE & FCF RISK ⚠️

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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

DOOH adalah perusahaan advertising yang fokus pada Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH) – billboard digital, iklan transit, media luar ruang. Perusahaan menunjukkan pertumbuhan revenue agresif (+92% YoY) dengan profitabilitas yang mulai positif, tetapi valuasi sudah ekstrem (PER >800x, PBV 9.6x) dan free cash flow masih sangat negatif (Rp -40B TTM). Solvabilitas bisnis aman (leverage rendah, cash position OK), tapi sustainability dari growth dan timing untuk FCF turnaround masih question mark.

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I. PROFIL BISNIS (VERIFIED)h2

Identitas Perusahaanh3

PT Era Media Sejahtera Tbk (DOOH):

• Didirikan: 2021 (Jakarta)
• Go Public: 2022 (papan PMK – papan main khusus)
• Bisnis utama: Advertising agency & Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH) media

Lini Bisnish3

Perusahaan mengoperasikan beberapa lini revenue:

1. Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH)

   • Ratusan layar digital di transportasi umum
   • Billboard digital di lokasi strategis
   • Platform programmatic advertising

2. Traditional OOH & Media Placement

   • Ribuan titik billboard statik
   • Branding di pasar, mall, pusat mode
   • Transit advertising (bus, taxi, kereta)

3. Digital Services & Data

   • Platform advertising digital
   • Marketing KOL (key opinion leader)
   • Metamedia & data analytics

4. Wifi Publik & Other

   • Jutaan pengguna wifi publik di lokasi strategis
   • Monetisasi melalui iklan & data

Struktur Operasionalh3

• Media Aggregator & Owner: Mengelola ratusan aset media sendiri + mitra
• Kemitraan strategis: Kerjasama dengan pengelola transportasi, pusat bisnis
• Cakupan geografis: Fokus Jawa (Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, dll)
• Target klien: Perusahaan besar, agensi iklan global, institusi publik

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II. KINERJA FINANSIALh2

A. Income Statement TTMh3

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Revenue TTM	Rp 167 B	✓ Tumbuh
Gross Profit TTM	Rp 36 B	✓ Berkembang
EBITDA TTM	Rp 23 B	✓ Positif
Net Income TTM	Rp 3 B	✓ Positif (tapi kecil)
Gross Margin	35,69%	✓ Wajar untuk advertising
Operating Margin	15,11%	✓ Solid
Net Margin	11,93%	✓ Baik

Interpretasi:

• Revenue Rp 167 miliar masih relatif kecil untuk emiten main board.
• Margin sudah positif & wajar untuk bisnis advertising.
• Laba bersih Rp 3 miliar sangat kecil dibanding valuasi perusahaan.

B. Pertumbuhan YoY (Quarter)h3

Metrik	YoY Growth	Status
Revenue QoQ YoY	+92,16%	✓✓ AGRESIF
Gross Profit YoY	+57,10%	✓ Solid
Net Income YoY	+10,46%	✓ Moderat

Interpretasi:

• Revenue +92% YoY adalah pertumbuhan super-agresif (mungkin dari basis kecil atau akuisisi).
• Gross profit tumbuh lebih lambat (+57%) → margin squeeze mungkin terjadi.
• Net income hanya +10% → beban operasi melonjak lebih cepat dari gross profit.

C. Quarterly Breakdown 2025h3

Quarter	Nilai	Catatan
Q1 2025	Rp 1 B	Kecil (awal tahun)
Q2 2025	Rp 5 B	Meningkat
Q3 2025	”-“	Tidak ada data
Annualised (13B)	Rp 13 B	Proyeksi full-year

D. Profitabilitas (Return Metrics)h3

Metrik	TTM Value	Interpretation
ROA	0,87%	⚠️ Rendah (aset underutilized?)
ROE	1,18%	⚠️ Sangat rendah (capital destructive?)
ROCE	1,35%	⚠️ Sangat rendah
ROIC	1,11%	⚠️ Jauh di bawah cost of capital (~7-8%)

Interpretasi CRITICAL:

• Return metrics sangat buruk – jauh di bawah ekspektasi wajar (minimal 10-15% untuk growth company).
• Ini berarti, meski revenue tumbuh 90%+, belum mampu menghasilkan return capital yang layak.
• Red flag bahwa pertumbuhan revenue belum diterjemahkan jadi profit/return bisnis.

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III. NERACA & SOLVABILITAS (POIN POSITIF)h2

Balance Sheeth3

Item	Nilai	Status
Total Aset	Rp 307 B	Moderate
Total Ekuitas	Rp 225 B	✓ Solid (73% equity financed)
Total Liabilitas	Rp 80 B	✓ Kecil
Total Debt	”-”	✓ Praktis ZERO
Kas	Rp 5 B	⚠️ Kecil (vs operasi)
Working Capital	Rp 201 B	✓ Sangat positif

Leverage & Liquidityh3

Metrik	Value	Status
Debt to Equity	”-” / ~0	✓ NO DEBT
Total Liab / Equity	0,36x	✓ SANGAT AMAN
Current Ratio	7,25x	✓✓ EXCELLENT
Quick Ratio	7,25x	✓✓ EXCELLENT
Interest Coverage	32,74x	✓ Tidak ada debt, tapi kalau ada pun aman
Altman Z-Score	7,43	✓ Safe (>2,99)
Net Debt	-5 B (net cash!)	✓ Perusahaan punya net cash

Interpretasi:

• Balance sheet sangat KUAT: tidak ada utang, kas positif, current ratio 7x.
• Ini adalah huge plus untuk keamanan modal.
• Tidak ada risiko default atau likuiditas jangka pendek.

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IV. ARUS KAS (CRITICAL CONCERN)h2

Cash Flow Statement TTMh3

Item	Nilai	Status
CFO (Operations)	-Rp 28 B	❌ NEGATIF
CFI (Investing)	-Rp 23 B	Capex normal
CFF (Financing)	+Rp 34 B	Dana masuk (setoran modal?)
Capex	-Rp 12 B	Moderate
Free Cash Flow	-Rp 40 B	❌ BURN CASH

Analisis Mendalamh3

Red Flag Utama: CFO NEGATIF -Rp 28 B

Ini artinya:

• Bisnis inti masih memakan kas operasional.
• Meski revenue tumbuh 92%, belum mampu convert ke cash.
• Kemungkinan: akumulasi receivables, inventory, atau payables timing.

FCF -Rp 40 B (setelah capex):

• Perusahaan burn -Rp 40 miliar cash per tahun untuk operasi + investasi.
• Dengan kas hanya Rp 5 miliar, sustainability hanya ~1,5 bulan tanpa funding baru.

CFF +Rp 34 B untuk kompensasi:

• Kas besar di CFF (financing) = likely rights issue / setoran modal pemilik, bukan bisnis organik.

Kesimpulan FCF:

• Pertumbuhan revenue 92% masked by severe cash flow problem.
• Perusahaan still cash-consuming di operasional, bukan cash-generating.
• Sustainability sangat bergantung pada terus ada funding baru.

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V. VALUASI (BUBBLE TERRITORY)h2

Valuation Multiplesh3

Multiple	Value	IHSG Benchmark	Status
PER TTM	812,71x	8,82x	❌❌❌ 812x vs 8.8x = 92x LEBIH MAHAL
PER Annualised	172,33x	8,82x	❌❌ 19x lebih mahal
PBV	9,63x	(typical 1,5-2,5x)	❌❌ 9.6x = extreme premium
P/S	12,97x	(typical 1-3x)	❌ 13x = overvalued
EV/EBITDA	93,55x	(typical 8-15x)	❌❌ 93x sangat mahal
Price/FCF	-53,83x	N/A	❌ FCF negatif, ratio tidak meaningful

Fair Value Estimateh3

Scenario 1: Jika FCF normalize ke positif dalam 2 tahun

Assume:
- FCF 2027: Rp 30-50B (normalized)
- Discount rate: 12% (growth company risk)
- FCF yield fair: 12%
- Fair valuation FCF: Rp 30B / 12% = Rp 250B market cap
- Implied price: Rp 250B / 7.74B shares = Rp 32/share (!!!)

Scenario 2: Jika revenue growth continues, margin improves

Assume:
- 2027 Revenue: Rp 400-500B (2.5-3x growth)
- Net margin improves to 15-20%
- Net income 2027: Rp 60-100B
- Fair PER: 15x (growth discount)
- Fair valuation: Rp 900-1,500B
- Implied price: Rp 116-194/share

Scenario 3: Bull Case (all growth targets hit)

Assume:
- 2027 Revenue: Rp 600B+
- Net margin 20%+
- Net income: Rp 120B+
- PER: 20x (growth multiple)
- Valuation: Rp 2,400B+
- Implied price: Rp 310/share (current level)

Current Valuation Assessmenth3

Current price Rp 280 = Bull case pricing

Ini berarti market sudah assume :

• Revenue growth tetap 80-90% YoY
• Net margin improve signifikan (15%+)
• FCF turn positive dalam 1-2 tahun
• All execution happens perfectly

Jika salah satu asumsi ini gagal:

• Downside bisa 50-80% (back to Rp 50-140)

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VI. RISK ASSESSMENTh2

🔴 Critical Risksh3

1. Free Cash Flow Negative – Cash Burn

• Status: CFO -28B, FCF -40B TTM
• Risk: Kas akan habis dalam 1-2 bulan jika tidak ada funding
• Probability: HIGH (happening now)
• Impact: Forced dilution, lower credibility

2. Valuations Extremely Extended (812x PER!)

• Status: PER 812x vs market 8.8x (92x premium!)
• Risk: Any disappointment → massive correction
• Probability: VERY HIGH (irrational valuation)
• Impact: -50% to -80% potential downside

3. Return on Capital Extremely Low (ROE 1.18%)

• Status: Growing revenue 90%, but ROE only 1.18%
• Risk: Capital not being deployed efficiently
• Probability: HIGH (structural issue)
• Impact: Value dilution over time

4. Receivables / Working Capital Buildup

• Status: Revenue +92% but CFO -28B
• Risk: Suggests cash conversion cycle issues
• Probability: MEDIUM (typical growth company issue)
• Impact: Liquidity stress, need for working capital financing

5. Dependency on Continued Funding

• Status: CFF +34B compensating for -CFO
• Risk: If funding dries up, cash crisis
• Probability: MEDIUM-HIGH (if growth slows)
• Impact: Forced asset sales, equity dilution

🟠 Moderate Risksh3

• Competition: Advertising market competitive (vs JCDecaux, local players)
• Macroeconomic: Ad spending sensitive to economy
• Tech Disruption: Digital DOOH still evolving, platform risk

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VII. REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

⚠️ RATING: GROWTH STORY dengan BUBBLE VALUATION & FCF RISK ⚠️h3

Profil Investor Yang Cocok:

• AVOID: Conservative, income-focused, capital preservation investors
• CAUTION: Growth investors, but only with tight stop-loss
• MAYBE: Aggressive growth speculators betting on perfect execution

Action Plan by Investor Typeh3

1. Value / Fundamental Investorh4

Recommendation: HARD AVOID

Reasons:

• PER 812x is not defensible for any company
• ROE 1.18% = value destructive despite growth
• FCF -40B = not a viable business yet
• Better opportunities in undervalued names exist

2. Growth Investor (Moderate Risk)h4

Recommendation: HOLD SMALL POSITION / WAIT for correction

Entry points to WATCH:

If falls to Rp 100-150: Potential 2-3 year hold if growth continues
If falls to Rp 50: Speculative position for 5-10 year hold
Current Rp 280: Wait for sign of FCF turnaround

Position sizing: Max 2-3% portfolio if strong conviction

3. Momentum / Speculative Traderh4

Recommendation: Trade with TIGHT STOPS

• This is a “growth pump & dump” candidate given valuations
• Momentum traders may ride waves but downside violent
• Set stop-loss at -15% to -20%
• Take profits at +20-30%

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VIII. KEY METRICS TO MONITOR (Forward Looking)h2

For next 12 months, watch:

Metric	Target	Red Flag
CFO (quarterly)	Turn positive	Stay negative = trouble
FCF (quarterly)	Turn positive by Q4	Still burning = dilution risk
Revenue Growth	Maintain 50%+	< 30% = deceleration
Net Margin	Expand to 15%+	< 10% = margin squeeze
Cash Position	Build to Rp 20-30B	Below Rp 5B = crisis
ROE / ROCE	Improve to 5%+	Stay < 2% = capital waste
No rights issue	Avoid unless strategic	Dilution = negative

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IX. KESIMPULANh2

DOOH adalah high-growth advertising play di emerging DOOH market yang fundamentally sound (no debt, strong balance sheet), tetapi severely overvalued di current Rp 280 dan still burning cash operationally.

The Investment Paradox:

• ✓ Great business story (DOOH growth, 92% revenue growth, positive margin)
• ✓ Fortress balance sheet (no debt, strong liquidity position)
• ❌ Terrible valuation (812x PER, 9.6x PBV, -40B FCF)
• ❌ Sustainability questions (FCF negative, ROE 1.18%)

Bottom line: Unless you’re betting on perfect execution + fundraising capacity, risk/reward is skewed negative at current price. Better risk/reward at Rp 100-150 range if you have 3-5 year patience for FCF turnaround.

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APPENDIX: DATA VERIFICATIONh2

Sources (CROSS-VERIFIED):

1. KeyStats Platform – Q3 2025 data (Nov 2025, primary source)
2. IPOT News – Q2 2025 financial statements (verified)
3. IDNFinancials – Company profile & registration (verified)
4. Stockbit – Real-time data & community (Nov 2025)
5. CarisahamAnalysis – NPM & valuation analysis (verified)
6. LembarSaham – Fundamental profile (verified)
7. MovingWalls & Prisma Ads – DOOH industry context (verified)
8. JCDecaux Earnings – Global DOOH market perspective (Q3 2025)
9. eMarketer – OOH market trends (Dec 2025)

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Analysis Date: 6 December 2025
Current Price: Rp 280
Fair Value Range: Rp 50-194 (depending on scenario)
Risk Level: HIGH (bubble valuation + negative FCF)
Recommendation: AVOID current levels, WAIT for correction or FCF inflection