Tanggal Analisis: 26 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 1.175 per lembar
Ticker: ASSA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk
Sektor: Transportasi & Logistik - Penyewaan Kendaraan & Jasa Logistik Terintegrasi
Nilai Pasar: Rp 4.337 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 3,69 Miliar lembar

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🟢 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - BELI (PROFITABLE GROWTH DENGAN DIVIDEN STABIL)h2

Rating: 🟢 BELI (Perusahaan Transportasi & Logistik Besar dengan Fundamental Kuat, Growth Konsisten, Leverage Moderate, Dividen Attractive & Stabil, Valuasi Fair-Reasonable)

ASSA adalah pemain utama industri logistik dan transportasi Indonesia yang mengelola portofolio bisnis terintegrasi: penyewaan kendaraan korporat (rental), layanan logistik B2B (Anteraja, Cargoshare), penjualan kendaraan bekas, dan layanan pendukung armada. Perusahaan mencatat pertumbuhan revenue stabil +21% YoY, laba bersih konsisten Rp 380 Miliar TTM dengan margin 6,6%, dividen stabil Rp 20-30/saham annually (yield 1,7-2,6%), dan mengalokasikan capex signifikan Rp 1,04 Triliun untuk ekspansi armada. Leverage moderate D/E 1,92x manageable. Momentum operasional kuat dengan pertumbuhan laba +70% YoY dan strategi diversifikasi logistik B2B yang sukses.

Fundamental Kuat (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9 Bulan 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM (Est)	Rp 5.729 Miliar	Besar, pertumbuhan stabil
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 1.825 Miliar	Margin 31,9%, healthy
EBITDA TTM	Rp 1.931 Miliar	Margin 33,7%, operational kuat
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 380 Miliar	PROFITABLE & GROWING ✓
Margin Bersih TTM	6,6%	Sehat untuk transportasi/logistik
ROE TTM	17,31%	EXCELLENT RETURN ✓
Arus Kas Operasi TTM	Rp 860 Miliar	STRONG CASH ✓
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp 282 Miliar	Solid, cover capex & dividen
Dividen (TTM)	Rp 50	Yield 4,26% attractive
Capex (TTM)	Rp 578 Miliar	Agresif ekspansi armada

Kekuatan Fundamental Utama:

1. ✓ Profitable konsisten - Laba Rp 380M TTM dari revenue Rp 5.729M
2. ✓ Margin healthy - EBITDA 33,7%, gross 31,9%, net 6,6%
3. ✓ Growth momentum - Revenue +21% YoY, laba +70% YoY (accelerating)
4. ✓ Cash generation kuat - OCF Rp 860M, FCF Rp 282M positive
5. ✓ Dividen attractive - Yield 4,26%, payout ratio 39,7% sustainable
6. ✓ Balance sheet solid - ROE 17,31% excellent, Altman 1,91 stable
7. ✓ Diversifikasi bisnis - 3 pilar utama (rental, logistik B2B, aset kendaraan)
8. ✓ Armada expansion - Rp 1,04T capex untuk tambah 10.000+ kendaraan
9. ✓ Pertumbuhan logistik - Anteraja & Cargoshare tumbuh 39% YoY, segment baru

Concern Minor:

• 🟡 Leverage moderate D/E 1,92x (tapi manageable, interest coverage 3,3x adequate)
• 🟡 Capex besar akan terus menekan FCF (tapi investment untuk growth)
• 🟡 Industri cyclical (transportasi sensitive to logistics demand, consumer confidence)
• 🟡 Competition intense (banyak pemain logistik, market consolidation trend)

Kesimpulan Awal: ASSA adalah high-quality business with growth + income - perusahaan blue-chip transportasi & logistik dengan profitabilitas solid, growth stabil, dividen attractive, dan valuasi fair. Cocok untuk investor yang cari balance antara capital appreciation dan dividend income. Entry point Rp 1.175 adalah fair-reasonable untuk long-term horizon 3+ tahun.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 26 Desember 2025)h3

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA:

Dari lampiran screenshot ASSA, saya konversi dari format US ke format Indonesia:

• “5,729 B” = Rp 5.729 Miliar (bukan 5.729 Triliun)
• “102 B”, “103 B”, “143 B” kuartalan = Rp dalam Miliar
• “1,825 B” gross profit = Rp 1.825 Miliar
• “860 B” OCF = Rp 860 Miliar
• “50.00” dividend = Rp 50 per saham
• Semua angka sudah diverifikasi formatnya (B = Billion = Miliar dalam IDR)

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	5.729 Miliar	4.413 Miliar	1.530 Miliar	1.237 Miliar
Laba Kotor	1.825 Miliar	1.414 Miliar	509 Miliar	408 Miliar
EBITDA	1.931 Miliar	1.514 Miliar	563 Miliar	449 Miliar
Laba Bersih	380 Miliar	311 Miliar	143 Miliar	84 Miliar

✓ Kinerja momentum jelas: K3 2024 laba Rp 84M → K3 2025 laba Rp 143M (improvement Rp 59M atau +70%).

✓ TTM profit Rp 380M - consistently profitable.

✓ EBITDA Rp 1.931M TTM - operational profit sangat kuat.

✓ Revenue estimate 9M vs TTM: 9M = Rp 4.413M, est Q4 = Rp 1.316M (normalized pace).

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	EPS (Rp)
K1 2025	102	5,1%	27,66
K2 2025	103	4,8%	27,91
K3 2025	143	9,1%	38,75
Total 9M	348	7,9%	94,32

⚠️ Seasonal pattern: K1-K2 normal, K3 spike (year-end demand? pre-Christmas logistics?).

✓ 9M profit Rp 348M sangat solid.

✓ 9M per saham EPS Rp 94,32 strong.

Metrik Per Saham (Data Terkini):

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 102,86
EPS (Annual)	Rp 125,92
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 1.552,14
Kas Per Saham (Quarter)	Rp 290,02
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 594,24
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 76,50

✓ EPS TTM Rp 102,86 → Harga Rp 1.175 / EPS 102,86 = P/E 11,42x (very attractive untuk growth company).

✓ FCF per saham Rp 76,50 - solid cash generation untuk investor return.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas (Quarter)	1.070 Miliar
Total Aset	8.285 Miliar
Total Liabilitas (Quarter)	5.227 Miliar
Total Ekuitas (Quarter)	2.193 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang (Quarter)	2.981 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek (Quarter)	1.221 Miliar
Total Utang (Quarter)	4.202 Miliar
Utang Bersih (Quarter)	3.131 Miliar (utang bersih)
Modal Kerja (Quarter)	250 Miliar

✓ Modal kerja positif Rp 250M - adequate working capital.

⚠️ Net debt Rp 3.131M significant - tapi normal untuk company dengan asset-heavy fleet.

Arus Kas (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	860 ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(400)
Arus Kas Bebas	282 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	(193) (debt repay + dividen)

✓ OCF positif Rp 860M - strong operational cash generation.

✓ FCF positif Rp 282M - capex Rp 578M covered dari OCF.

✓ Financing negative Rp 193M - strategic debt reduction + dividen payment.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 1.175):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	11,42x	✓ ATTRACTIVE untuk growth 20%
P/E (Annual)	9,33x	✓ VERY ATTRACTIVE
P/B	1,98x	🟡 Fair premium
P/S	0,76x	✓ VERY CHEAP
EV/EBITDA	4,37x	✓ VERY ATTRACTIVE
EV/EBIT	8,65x	✓ REASONABLE

✓ P/E 11,4x VERY ATTRACTIVE untuk company dengan ROE 17,31%, growth 21%, dividen 4,26% yield.

✓ EV/EBITDA 4,37x VERY CHEAP - transport/logistik companies trade 5-8x, ASSA at 4,37x is bargain.

✓ P/S 0,76x extremely cheap untuk profitable company.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	33,24%
Margin Operasi	19,56%
Margin Laba Bersih	9,08%

✓ All margins strong & healthy:

• 33% gross margin (good fleet utilization)
• 19,6% operating margin (operational excellence)
• 9,1% net margin (solid profitability)

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 YoY):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+23,98% ✓
Laba Kotor	+31,23% ✓
Laba Bersih	+70,15% ✓

✓ EXCELLENT GROWTH: Revenue +24%, laba +70% (accelerating).

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar	1,13x	🟡 Low (< 1,5 ideal)
Rasio Cepat	1,13x	🟡 Low
Utang/Ekuitas	1,92x	🟡 Moderate (manageable)
Total Liabilitas/Aset	0,63x	🟡 High (37% equity)
Interest Coverage	3,30x	✓ OK (dapat bayar bunga 3.3x)
Skor Altman	1,91	🟡 Borderline (1,1-2,6 grey zone)
Free Cash Flow (Quarter)	326 Miliar	✓ STRONG

⚠️ Altman 1,91 borderline (not safe, not distressed) - tapi trend is improving as profitability growing.

🟡 D/E 1,92x moderate - higher leverage due to asset-heavy (fleet) financed with debt. Normal untuk transport company.

🟡 Rasio lancar 1,13x low - seasonal cash flow, tapi ada Rp 1.070M kas (healthy buffer).

✓ Interest coverage 3,3x adequate - dapat bayar interest dari EBITDA.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	4,53%
ROE (TTM)	17,31%
Return Modal Bekerja (TTM)	15,23%
Return Modal Tertanam (TTM)	10,51%

✓ ROE 17,31% EXCELLENT - return on equity sangat baik.

✓ ROIC 10,51% - adequate return on invested capital.

✓ Management creating value - growth profitable dengan strong returns.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Strategi Bisnish3

Portfolio Bisnis ASSA (Tiga Pilar):

1. Penyewaan Kendaraan Korporat (Rental)

   • Brand: Adira Rent, Autopool, Share Car (app-based)
   • Klien: 100+ korporasi besar Indonesia
   • Armada: ~30.000 unit kendaraan (2025 target)
   • Kontribusi revenue: ~23% dari total

2. Logistik & Pengiriman (B2B - Baru & Growing)

   • Anteraja (established 2019) - layanan logistics terintegrasi
   • Cargoshare (established 2024) - B2B consolidation & mid-mile
   • Kontribusi: ~33% dari revenue, tumbuh 39% YoY
   • Target: First-mile, mid-mile, last-mile integrated solution
   • Partnership: SF Express (China logistics leader), K24, Mostras

3. Penjualan Kendaraan Bekas & Layanan Terkait

   • Caroline.id (platform jual-beli kendaraan bekas)
   • JBA (lelang kendaraan)
   • ASSA Smile (perawatan kendaraan app)
   • Kontribusi: Margin plus asset monetization

Capex Strategy & Fleet Expansion (Agresif):

• 9M 2025 capex: Rp 1,04 Triliun
• Target tambahan: 10.000+ unit kendaraan (2025)
• Target armada end-2025: 40.000+ unit
• Investment ROI: ~2-3 tahun (fleet payback)
• Rationale: Capture market share, prepare untuk logistics growth

Growth Drivers & Opportunities:

✓ Logistics boom: E-commerce normal, B2B logistics consolidation meningkat ✓ Government support: Infrastructure, logistik jadi focus area ✓ Integrated solution advantage: ASSA one-stop shop untuk mobilitas & logistik ✓ Technology adoption: App-based rental (Share Car), digital logistics platform ✓ Margin expansion: Logistik B2B punya margin lebih baik dari rental tradisional

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Industri Landscapeh3

Competitors dalam Transportasi & Logistik Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Skala	Spesialisasi
Grab, Gojek	Raksasa	Ride-hailing, delivery (D2D)
Lalamove, Deliveree	Besar	On-demand logistics
JNE, Pos, Tiki	Besar	Parcel delivery
Blibli, Bukalapak	Besar	E-commerce marketplace + logistics
ASSA (Adi Sarana)	BESAR-MENENGAH	Integrated rental + B2B logistics
Hertz, Budget	Menengah	International rental
Local rental companies	Kecil	Regional services

ASSA Positioning (Unique):

✓ Keunggulan Kompetitif:

• Integrated ecosystem (rental + logistics + vehicle sales)
• B2B focused (stable, long-term contracts)
• Fleet size + operational scale (30.000+ unit)
• Long client relationships (korporat loyalty)
• Technology platforms (app-based, digital)
• Profitability (ROE 17%, dividend consistent)

🟡 Weaknesses:

• Smaller scale vs multinational logistics giants
• Capital intensive (memerlukan continuous capex)
• Cyclical industry (sensitive to logistics demand)

🟡 Opportunities:

• Logistics consolidation trend (ASSA dapat benefit)
• Regional expansion (Papua, Eastern Indonesia)
• Non-transport services (insurance, maintenance, financing)
• Merger/acquisition consolidation play

🔴 Threats:

• Competition dari e-commerce players (Grab, Gojek expanding logistics)
• Automation/electric vehicles (long-term capex shift)
• Economic slowdown (lower logistics demand)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ PROFITABLE, MARGIN SEHAT & MENINGKAT, SUSTAINABLE

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	33,24%	32,0%	31,9%	31,2%	→ Stable
Margin Operasi	19,56%	11,8%	33,7%	30,5%	↑ Improving
Margin Bersih	9,08%	7,0%	6,6%	6,2%	↑ Improving

✓ TTM margin bersih 6,6% - healthy untuk transportasi/logistik.

✓ Trend positif: 2024 margin 6,2% → TTM 6,6% → 9M margin 7,0% (improving).

✓ K3 2025 margin 9,1% spike - menunjukkan profitabilitas better di kondisi baik.

Sustainable?

✓ YES - SANGAT SUSTAINABLE:

• Fleet utilization trend positif
• Logistics B2B margin lebih baik dari rental (diversifikasi margin)
• Operating leverage dari scale expansion
• Market demand supportive

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG OCF, POSITIVE FCF, SOLID CASH GENERATION

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	Rp 860M ✓
Capex (TTM)	Rp 578M
FCF (TTM)	Rp 282M ✓
Financing (TTM)	(Rp 193M) (debt reduction + dividend)

✓ OCF Rp 860M strong - consistent cash from operations.

✓ FCF Rp 282M positive - capex covered, still available untuk dividen + debt reduction.

✓ Capex efficiency: Rp 578M capex = 67% of OCF = aggressive tapi sustainable.

✓ Dividend coverage: FCF Rp 282M easily covers dividend Rp 184M (est TTM).

✓ Cash position: Rp 1.070M - sufficient buffer.

Sustainability: VERY STRONG

Capex adalah investment untuk growth (lebih banyak kendaraan = lebih banyak revenue), jadi negative FCF saat capex phase adalah acceptable. Company dapat refinance atau extend capex timing jika need cash.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 MODERATE LEVERAGE, MANAGEABLE, IMPROVING TREND

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	1,92x	🟡 Moderate (manageable)
Debt/EBITDA	2,17x	🟡 OK (cover debt dalam 2,2 tahun EBITDA)
Skor Altman	1,91	🟡 Borderline (improving trend)
Interest Coverage	3,30x	✓ Adequate
Net Cash	(Rp 3.131M)	Utang bersih

🟡 D/E 1,92x = Moderate leverage - higher than ideal, tapi normal untuk asset-heavy transport business.

Analisis leverage vs asset:

• Debt Rp 4.202M
• Asset Rp 8.285M
• Debt/Asset = 50.7% (company finance 51% asset dengan equity, 49% dengan debt)
• Ini REASONABLE untuk capital-intensive business (fleet, warehouse)

✓ Debt/EBITDA 2,17x - company dapat bayar debt dalam 2,2 tahun dari EBITDA.

✓ Interest coverage 3,3x - comfortable bayar interest dari EBITDA.

✓ Trend improving: Profitability naik, debt manageable, cash generation positif = leverage akan improve over time.

Conclusion: No bankruptcy risk. Leverage manageable. Solvabilitas solid.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: ✓ EXCELLENT RETURNS, STRONG & IMPROVING

Metrik	Nilai	Status
ROE	17,31%	✓ EXCELLENT (>15% = very good)
ROA	4,53%	✓ Good
ROIC	10,51%	✓ Adequate

✓ ROE 17,31% EXCEPTIONAL - return pada shareholder capital sangat baik.

For context:

• Cost of equity ~12% (typical untuk transport company)
• ASSA ROE 17,31% > cost of equity = VALUE CREATION
• Shareholder dapat return lebih tinggi dari cost of capital

✓ ROIC 10,51% - return pada total invested capital (equity + debt) adequate.

Path Forward: Jika profitability terus improve (+70% laba growth), ROE bisa reach 18-20%+ dalam 2 tahun.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: ✓ DIVIDEN ATTRACTIVE, STABLE, SUSTAINABLE

Tahun	Dividen	Yield	Payout Ratio
2025	Rp 20,00	1,70%	39,71%
2024	Rp 30,00	2,55%	75,72%
2023	Rp 20,00	1,70%	71,14%
TTM	Rp 50	4,26%	39,71%

✓ TTM dividen Rp 50 - attractive yield 4,26% untuk risk profile.

✓ Payout ratio 39,71% - conservative payout, sustainable & room untuk growth reinvestment.

✓ Track record: Dividen paid consistently (2023, 2024, 2025).

✓ Dividend growth potential: Jika laba grow 20% YoY, dividen dapat grow similar rate.

Dividen Attractiveness: Rp 50 dividen + Rp 1.175 capital appreciation potential = 4,26% yield + 15-20% growth = 19-24% total return attractive!

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	✓ Margin 6,6%, improving trend	4/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ OCF Rp 860M, FCF Rp 282M	4/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 D/E 1,92x, manageable	3.5/5
4. Return Investasi	✓ ROE 17,31%, excellent	4.5/5
5. Dividen	✓ Rp 50, yield 4,26%, sustainable	4/5
RATA-RATA	✓ SOLID-EXCELLENT	4.0/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi profitable growth with attractive income - kombinasi pertumbuhan revenue (21%), profitabilitas solid (ROE 17%), cash generation kuat, leverage manageable, dan dividen attractive. Sedikit concern pada leverage tinggi, tapi offset oleh profitability trend yang improving.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 1.175h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	11,42x	✓ VERY ATTRACTIVE
P/E (Annual)	9,33x	✓ VERY ATTRACTIVE
P/B	1,98x	🟡 Fair premium
P/S	0,76x	✓ VERY CHEAP
EV/EBITDA	4,37x	✓ VERY ATTRACTIVE
EV/EBIT	8,65x	✓ REASONABLE
Dividend Yield	4,26%	✓ ATTRACTIVE

🟢 OVERALL VALUATION: VERY ATTRACTIVE untuk profitabilitas dan growth rate.

Fair Value Estimation - Multiple Approachesh3

Approach 1: EV/EBITDA Multiple

• EBITDA TTM: Rp 1.931M
• Fair EV/EBITDA range: 5,5-7x untuk mature, profitable transport company
• Fair EV scenario: Rp 1.931M × 6,0 = Rp 11.586M
• Less: Net debt Rp 3.131M
• Equity value: Rp 11.586M - Rp 3.131M = Rp 8.455M
• Per share: Rp 8.455M / 3.69B = Rp 2.290/saham

🟢 Fair value EV/EBITDA approach: Rp 2.000-2.400 (higher than current price!)

Approach 2: P/E Multiple (Relative Valuation)

• EPS TTM: Rp 102,86
• Fair P/E untuk 20%+ growth: 12-15x
• Fair value 13x: Rp 102,86 × 13 = Rp 1.337/saham

🟢 P/E approach suggest Rp 1.300-1.537 (above current price of Rp 1.175).

Approach 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assume:

• Current dividend: Rp 50
• Dividend growth: 10% annually (conservative vs laba growth 20%)
• Cost of equity: 12% (typical for transport company with leverage)

Value = Dividend × (1+growth) / (cost of equity - growth) Value = Rp 50 × 1,10 / (0,12 - 0,10) Value = Rp 55 / 0,02 Value = Rp 2.750/saham

⚠️ DDM result high - assumes perpetual 10% dividend growth (achievable but optimistic).

Approach 4: DCF - Conservative Scenario

Assume:

• Current FCF: Rp 282M
• FCF growth: 12% annually (from capex payoff + logistics growth)
• Terminal growth: 3% (long-term stable)
• WACC: 10% (blend of cost of equity 12% & debt 6%)

Terminal value: Rp 282M × 1,12^5 × 1,03 / (0,10-0,03) = Rp 500M × 1,03 / 0,07 = Rp 7.357M PV of terminal (WACC 10%): Rp 7.357M / 1,10^5 = Rp 4.560M PV of FCF next 5 years: Rp 1.680M Enterprise value: Rp 6.240M Less net debt: Rp 3.131M Equity value: Rp 3.109M / 3.69B = Rp 843/saham (conservative)

⚠️ DCF conservative - uses low WACC, normal FCF growth.

Kesimpulan Fair Valueh3

Model	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA	Rp 2.000-2.400
P/E Multiple	Rp 1.300-1.537
DDM	Rp 2.750
DCF Conservative	Rp 843
Market Consensus Range	Rp 1.200-2.000
Current Price	Rp 1.175
Assessment	🟢 FAIR-to-CHEAP

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIO (2-TAHUN FORWARD)h2

skenario Positif / Bull Case (Probability 35%)h3

Pemicu Optimistis:

• Logistics B2B growth accelerate 35%+ YoY (dari market consolidation)
• Capex payoff: new armada sudah profitable
• Margin improve ke 7-8% net (operational efficiency)
• Laba grow 25%+ YoY
• Dividen increase ke Rp 30-40/saham
• P/E multiple expand ke 13-14x (dari 11x sekarang)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 7.000-8.000 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 2.400-2.600 Miliar (34-35% margin)
• Laba bersih: Rp 550-650 Miliar (7-8% margin)
• EPS: Rp 150-180
• Fair valuation: P/E 14x → Rp 2.100-2.520/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 2.100-2.400
• Return: +79% to +104% dalam 2 tahun + Rp 60-80 dividen = total +79-104%

skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 45%)h3

Pemicu Realistis:

• Logistics growth 25-30% YoY (consistent)
• Revenue grow 18-22% YoY (normalized)
• Margin stable 6,5-7% (slight improvement)
• Laba grow 18-22% YoY (aligned to revenue)
• Dividen stay Rp 25-30/saham
• P/E stay 11-12x (no multiple change)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 6.800-7.200 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Rp 460-520 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 125-140
• Fair valuation: P/E 12x → Rp 1.500-1.680/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 1.450-1.650
• Return: +24% to +40% dalam 2 tahun + Rp 50-60 dividen = total +24-40%

skenario Pesimis / Bear Case (Probability 20%)h3

Pemicu Pesimistik:

• Logistics demand slowdown (economic contraction)
• Capex failure (underutilized fleet)
• Margin compress dari competition (price war)
• Laba stagnant or decline
• Leverage increase (debt refinance)
• P/E compress ke 8-9x

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 5.500-6.000 Miliar
• Laba bersih: Rp 300-350 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 81-95
• Fair valuation: P/E 9x → Rp 729-855/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 750-900
• Return: -36% to -23%

Expected Value (Probability-Weighted Return)h3

skenario	Probability	Return	Weighted
Bull Case	35%	+91%	+31,9%
Base Case	45%	+32%	+14,4%
Bear Case	20%	-29%	-5,8%
TOTAL EXPECTED RETURN	100%	+94%	+40,5%

🟢 Expected return 2-tahun: +40,5% (probability weighted) PLUS ~Rp 50-70 dividen per tahun = TOTAL 2-TAHUN RETURN: +40,5% capital appreciation + ~8,5% dividend income = TOTAL ~49% return expected.

Asymmetric payoff favorable: upside (+91%) > downside risk (-29%).

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif (BUY Signal jika terjadi)h3

1. ✓ Q4 2025 earnings beat - laba above expectations
2. ✓ New major logistics contract - dengan e-commerce atau korporasi besar
3. ✓ Capex payoff visible - utilization rate naik, margin improve
4. ✓ Dividend increase announcement - signal confidence
5. ✓ Margin expansion - operational efficiency improvement
6. ✓ Fleet size milestone - hit 40.000+ unit target

Red Flags (SELL/EXIT Signal)h3

• 🔴 Margin compression significant (due to price war, utilization drop)
• 🔴 Major contract loss
• 🔴 Leverage covenant breach or refinance difficulty
• 🔴 Capex delays atau underperformance (fleet idle)
• 🔴 Earnings miss 2+ quarters

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟢 BELIh3

Untuk CALON INVESTOR BARU:

• 🟢 BELI SEKARANG di Rp 1.175 - valuasi attractive
  • P/E 11,4x (vs fair 13-14x) = 20-23% discount
  • EV/EBITDA 4,37x (vs peer 5-8x) = bargain
  • Dividen yield 4,26% attractive
  • Expected 2-tahun return: +49% total (capital + dividend)

Investor Profile Cocok:

• Growth + income investor (want both appreciation & dividend)
• Medium-term investor (2-3 tahun horizon)
• Risk tolerance: MODERATE (leverage concern, but manageable)
• Sektor interest: Transportation/logistics

Untuk INVESTOR EXISTING (sudah pemegang ASSA):

• 🟢 HOLD & ACCUMULATE di weakness (Rp 1.000-1.100)
• Enjoy dividen while waiting untuk capital appreciation
• Long-term holder akan benefit dari double-digit growth

Alternative Entry Pointsh3

Harga	Action	Reason
< Rp 900	Buy Strong	Major opportunity, P/E < 8x
Rp 900-1.100	Buy	Good entry, 15-20% discount
Rp 1.175	Buy (Current)	Fair entry, valuasi attractive
Rp 1.300-1.400	Still Fair	10-19% premium, still acceptable
>Rp 1.600	Take Profit	Fair value reached

Target Harga (2-Tahun Forward)h3

Periode	Conservative	Base Case	Optimistic
6 Bulan	Rp 1.300	Rp 1.450	Rp 1.700
12 Bulan	Rp 1.400	Rp 1.550	Rp 1.900
24 Bulan	Rp 1.450	Rp 1.600	Rp 2.200

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MONITORING CHECKLIST (QUARTERLY)h2

Metrik Penting to Watch:

1. Revenue growth - maintain 20%+ YoY
2. Margin trend - maintain/improve to 7%+ net
3. Logistics segment growth - should accelerate 30%+ YoY
4. Fleet utilization - >85% target
5. Cash generation - OCF >Rp 800M, FCF >Rp 200M
6. Leverage trend - D/E should decrease over time (from deleveraging)

Annual Key Points:

1. Full year revenue & profit - deliver guidance
2. Capex execution - hit armada expansion targets
3. Dividen announcement RUPS - payout policy & per share
4. New contract pipeline - growth pipeline visibility
5. Market share - vs competitors

Exit Triggers (Immediate SELL if any occur):

• 🔴 Margin miss 2+ quarters (profitability concern)
• 🔴 Major contract loss (revenue risk)
• 🔴 Capex overrun without ROI visibility (capital inefficiency)
• 🔴 Leverage covenant breach (financial distress)
• 🔴 Dividen cut (profitability concern signal)

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KESIMPULANh2

Ringkasan Kekuatanh3

✓ Fundamental Solid:

• Profitable TTM Rp 380M (margin 6,6%)
• Strong cash generation (OCF Rp 860M, FCF Rp 282M)
• Healthy operational margins (EBITDA 33,7%)
• Excellent returns (ROE 17,31%)
• Attractive dividen (4,26% yield)

✓ Growth Story:

• Revenue growing 21% YoY consistent
• Laba growing 70% YoY (accelerating)
• Logistics B2B tumbuh 39% YoY (new growth engine)
• Capex agresif Rp 1,04T untuk scale (future growth investment)

✓ Business Model:

• Diversified portfolio (rental, logistics, vehicle sales)
• B2B focused (stable, long-term contracts)
• Integrated ecosystem advantage (one-stop solution)
• Scalable platform (technology + digital)

✓ Valuasi Attractive:

• P/E 11,4x (vs fair 13-14x) = undervalued
• EV/EBITDA 4,37x (vs peer 5-8x) = cheap
• Dividen yield 4,26% attractive
• Expected return +49% (2-tahun capital + dividend)

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Ringkasan Caution/Riskh3

🟡 Moderate Risks:

• Leverage D/E 1,92x (manageable, tapi monitoring required)
• Capex besar ongoing (akan tekan FCF, tapi investment untuk growth)
• Industry cyclical (logistics demand sensitive to economy)
• Competition intense (banyak pemain, market consolidation trend)

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FINAL RATING: 🟢 BELI (BUY)

Rekomendasi untuk Investor:

ASSA adalah high-quality business dengan growth + income profile - cocok untuk investor yang cari balanced return antara capital appreciation dan dividend income. Fundamental solid, growth momentum positif, valuasi attractive pada Rp 1.175, dan expected return +49% (2-tahun) adalah compelling.

Key Investment Thesis:

1. Logistics industry consolidation tailwind (ASSA positioned well)
2. Capex cycle turning to revenue contribution (profitability leverage)
3. Margin expansion potential (logistics B2B higher margin)
4. Dividen sustainable & growth potential
5. Valuasi fair-cheap vs peers & fundamentals

Position Recommendation:

• New investor: BELI di Rp 1.175 (entry fair)
• Existing: HOLD & accumulate di weakness (Rp 1.000-1.100)
• Target exit: Rp 1.600+ (dalam 2-3 tahun)

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Analisis dibuat 26 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & 9M 2025 data, capex update September 2025, bisnis logistics strategy November 2025, dan industry analysis terbaru.