Analisis Saham PT Phapros Tbk (PEHA) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)
Analisis mendalam saham PEHA (PT Phapros Tbk) per kuartal ketiga 2025, mencakup profil bisnis, kinerja keuangan, valuasi, risiko, dan kesimpulan analisis.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini adalah opini edukasi, bukan nasihat atau rekomendasi investasi. Kami tidak menerima komisi maupun afiliasi dari emiten yang dibahas. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 298 per lembar
Ticker: PEHA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Phapros Tbk
Sektor: Farmasi - Produksi, Distribusi Obat-obatan, Herbal, Supplement
Nilai Pasar: Rp 250 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 840 Juta lembar
Sejarah: Founded 1952 | IPO 2001 | Historical Blue-chip | Recently Restructuring
Overviewh2
PEHA adalah perusahaan farmasi bersejarah yang mengalami kesulitan 2023-2024 (loss Rp (285)M 2024) tetapi mulai recovery 2025. TTM menunjukkan loss Rp (210)M akibat bleed 2024, tapi 9M 2025 sudah swing positive profit Rp ~7-10M dengan trajectory jelas. Q3 2025 solidnya: revenue Rp 856M (+10,27% YoY), operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37%, OCF positif Rp 115M (turnaround signal kuat). Cost restructuring berhasil. Management target H1 2025 positive (achieved). Saham turun -82% dari peak sejalan dengan crisis 2024, dengan recovery yang tampak underway. P/E negative (loss company) tapi IMPROVING. Dividen history Rp 13-85 (dari era profitable) suggestive dari potensi ke depan bila turnaround berlanjut ke 2026.
Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9M 2025 Progress):
| Item | Nilai | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp 856 Miliar | Growing +10,27% YoY |
| Laba Kotor TTM | Rp 353 Miliar | Gross margin 41,2% |
| EBITDA TTM | Rp 157 Miliar | EBITDA margin 18,3% |
| Laba Bersih TTM | Rp (210) Miliar | TTM LOSS (2024 overhang) |
| Q3 2025 Profit | Rp 5 Miliar | Positive ✓ (inflection) |
| 9M 2025 Profit (est) | Rp ~7-10 Miliar | Swing positive ✓ |
| OCF TTM | Rp 115 Miliar | POSITIVE STRONG ✓ |
| FCF TTM | Rp 106 Miliar | STRONG ✓ |
| D/E Ratio | 1,67x | Manageable |
| Altman Score | 0,43 | 🟡 Distress zone (TTM), but improving |
| Interest Coverage | -3,88x | Negative (TTM), but Q3 positive |
| Operating Margin Q3 | 7,49% | Good |
| Net Margin Q3 | 2,37% | Positive inflection |
Profil Turnaround & Recovery:
- 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Rear-view mirror effect (2024 crisis cumulative in TTM)
- ✓ But Q1-Q3 2025 profitable - 9M swing positive turnaround underway
- ✓ OCF positive Rp 115M - Cash generation strong (turnaround signal)
- ✓ Revenue growth +10,27% - Demand recovery visible
- ✓ Cost restructuring working - Operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37% (Q3 improvement)
- 🟡 Price down -82% 5-tahun justified - But valuation now beaten down
- ✓ Dividen history Rp 13-85 - Suggests profitable era potential returning
- ✓ Pharmaceutical fundamentals solid - Essential products, recurring demand
Kesimpulan Awal: PEHA adalah HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND PLAY dengan clear inflection point Q3 2025. TTM loss hanya karena 2024 crisis yang sudah dilewati; operasional 2025 sudah profitable. OCF positif dan revenue growth confirm turnaround genuine. Profil risikonya tinggi, bergantung pada apakah turnaround ini complete pada 2026 dan tahan terhadap downside hingga -50% jika turnaround fails.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2
PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA & TIMING:
Format Konversi (CRITICAL):
- “856 B” Revenue TTM = Rp 856 MILIAR (B = Billion = Miliar, BUKAN Triliun)
- “353 B” Gross Profit TTM = Rp 353 MILIAR
- “157 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 157 MILIAR
- “(210) B” Net Loss TTM = Rp (210) MILIAR loss
- “115 B” OCF TTM = Rp 115 MILIAR
- “92 B” Kas Q = Rp 92 MILIAR
✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - semua dalam MILIAR format
PENTING - TTM vs Quarterly Sequential Analysis:
Kenapa TTM loss tapi Q3 positif? Karena TTM (last 12 months) includes:
- Q4 2024 (very weak, loss Rp ~100M+)
- Q1-Q3 2024 (weak, loss Rp ~180M total)
- Total 2024 loss ~Rp (285)M = Q4 2024 bleed
Sedangkan 2025 (9M):
- Q1 2025: (6) Miliar loss (early recovery)
- Q2 2025: 8 Miliar profit (turning point!)
- Q3 2025: 5 Miliar profit (confirmed!)
- Total 9M 2025 ~Rp 7M profit (SWING!)
Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM vs Sequential):
| Periode | Revenue | Operating Margin | Net Profit | Margin | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 267,5M | 7,49% | 5M | 2,37% | ↑ Positive |
| Q3 2024 | 243,3M | Negative | (18)M | Negative | ↓ Loss |
| 9M 2025 est | 800M | ~6% | ~7-10M | ~1% | ↑ Turnaround |
| 9M 2024 | 713M | Negative | (30)M | Negative | ↓ Loss |
| FY 2024 | 780M | Negative | (285)M | Negative | ↓ Crisis |
| TTM | 856M | 18% EBITDA | (210)M | Negative | ↑ Improving |
KEY INSIGHT: TTM loss is 2024 cumulative (Rp (285)M) still heavy-weighted. But 9M 2025 already swing positive! This suggests 4Q 2025 could be VERY positive if momentum continues.
Per Saham:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | Rp (249,48) |
| EPS (Annual) | Rp 12,28 |
| Revenue Per Share (TTM) | Rp 1.019,16 |
| Dividen (Historical) | Rp 13,37 |
🟡 EPS TTM negative - But annualized EPS positive Rp 12,28 (showing recovery).
🟡 Dividen historical Rp 13,37 - From profitable 2022, suggests distribution capacity if turnaround succeeds.
Neraca (Q3 2025):
| Item | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Kas | 92 |
| Total Aset | 1.457 |
| Total Liabilitas | 1.054 |
| Total Ekuitas | 390 |
| Utang Jangka Panjang | 388 |
| Utang Jangka Pendek | 261 |
| Total Utang | 649 |
| Net Debt | (557) |
🟡 Net Debt Rp (557)M - Some leverage, but D/E 1,67x manageable.
🟡 Working capital tight - Liabilities > Equity ratio elevated (turnaround stress).
Arus Kas (TTM):
| Komponen | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Arus dari Operasi | 115 ✓ |
| Arus dari Investasi | (9) |
| Arus Kas Bebas | 106 ✓ |
| Arus dari Pendanaan | (64) |
✓ OCF Rp 115M positive - EXCELLENT turnaround signal (company generating cash despite loss on paper).
✓ FCF Rp 106M positive - Can self-fund operations, no external financing needed.
Valuasi (pada harga Rp 298):
| Metrik | Nilai | Penilaian |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | Negative | N/A (loss company) |
| P/E (Annual) | 24,27x | 🟡 Fair-to-High (if turnaround succeeds) |
| P/B | 0,64x | 🟢 Discount to book (value) |
| P/S | 0,29x | 🟢 VERY CHEAP |
| EV/EBITDA | -4,09x | N/A (negative) |
| Price-to-FCF | 2,36x | 🟢 EXCELLENT |
🟢 VALUATION ATTRACTIVE IF TURNAROUND SUCCEEDS - P/S 0,29x is extremely cheap, P/B 0,64x discount, P/FCF 2,36x excellent.
🔴 BUT RISK: If turnaround fails, downside -50%+ (to Rp 150 range).
Profitabilitas (Quarterly Trend):
| Margin | Q3 2025 | 9M 2025 | FY 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 52,34% | ~41% | ~40% | Stable |
| Operating Margin | 7,49% | ~6% | Negative | ↑ RECOVERING |
| Net Profit Margin | 2,37% | ~1% | Negative | ↑ RECOVERING |
✓ Margins improving dramatically - Q3 2025 net margin 2,37% vs FY2024 negative = clear recovery.
Pertumbuhan (YoY):
| Metrik | Q3 YoY | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10,27% ✓ | Growing |
| Gross Profit | +27,32% ✓ | Strong |
| Net Income | +129,23% ✓ | Swing from loss |
✓ ALL positive YoY - Net income swing +129% (from -18M to +5M) shows inflection.
Kesehatan Finansial:
| Metrik | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1,32x | 🟡 Tight |
| Quick Ratio | 1,02x | 🟡 Barely adequate |
| D/E | 1,67x | 🟡 Manageable |
| Interest Coverage | -3,88x | 🔴 TTM negative |
| Altman Score | 0,43 | 🔴 DISTRESS (TTM), improving |
| FCF | 106 Miliar | ✓ Positive |
🟡 Altman 0,43 indicates distress - BUT this is TTM (2024 crisis). Q3 2025 momentum suggests Altman improving.
Returns (TTM):
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| ROA | -14,38% |
| ROE | -53,77% |
| ROIC | -23,01% |
🔴 ALL NEGATIVE TTM - But backward-looking (2024 loss). 2025 ROIC likely positive if turnaround continues.
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: 🟡 INFLECTION POINT - RECOVERING FROM LOSS
🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Negative fundamental.
✓ BUT Q3 2025 margin 2,37% - Positive inflection confirmed.
✓ 9M 2025 profit Rp ~7-10M - Turnaround underway.
✓ Margin trajectory improving - Operating margin 7,49% Q3 strong untuk farmasi.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: ✓ STRONG POSITIVE - RECOVERY SIGNAL
✓ OCF Rp 115M POSITIVE - Excellent for loss company (indicates genuine recovery, not accounting).
✓ FCF Rp 106M POSITIVE - Self-funding capability.
✓ Cash generation proof - Turnaround is real (not just paper).
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: 🟡 MANAGEABLE LEVERAGE, MONITORING NEEDED
🟡 D/E 1,67x manageable - High but typical turnaround.
🔴 Interest coverage negative TTM - But likely positive Q3 2025.
🟡 Altman 0,43 distress TTM - Will improve as 2024 loss weight out.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE TTM, BUT IMPROVING Q3
🔴 All returns negative TTM - ROE -53%, ROA -14%, ROIC -23%.
✓ But trend upward - If turnaround succeeds, returns will swing positive dramatically.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: - NONE NOW, BUT HISTORY STRONG (Rp 13-85)
❌ No dividen 2023-2025 - Suspended during crisis.
✓ But historical Rp 13,37 (2022), Rp 23,09 (2020) - Suggests capacity to resume if turnaround succeeds.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | 🟡 Inflection recovering | 2.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | ✓ Strong positive | 4/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | 🟡 Manageable | 2.5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | 🔴 Negative TTM | 1/5 |
| 5. Dividen | - None, but capacity if successful | 1/5 |
| RATA-RATA | 🟡 TURNAROUND INFLECTION | 2.2/5 (TTM) |
PENTING: Rata-rata 2.2/5 TTM tidak fair. Sequential Q3 2025 menunjukkan 3.5-4.0/5 trajectory. This is ASYMMETRIC risk/reward: downside defined (cash positive), upside significant (if turnaround complete).
TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2
Fair Value Estimation (Base on Turnaround Scenario):
| Model | Fair Value | Current | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B 1,0x (if profitable) | Rp 390 | Rp 298 | +31% |
| P/E 12x (normalized) | Rp 147 | Rp 298 | -50% |
| P/S 0,5x (industry avg) | Rp 428 | Rp 298 | +44% |
| DCF recovery scenario | Rp 350-450 | Rp 298 | +17-51% |
| Consensus (if turnaround) | Rp 350-450 | Rp 298 | +17-51% |
🟡 Fair value highly CONDITIONAL on turnaround success.
TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2
| Scenario | Prob | Return | Target | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | +100% | Rp 596 | Turnaround complete, profit Rp 30-40M, dividen resume |
| Base | 40% | +20% | Rp 358 | Turnaround succeeds, profit Rp 15M, normalized valuation |
| Bear | 20% | -40% | Rp 179 | Recovery stalls, margin pressure, dividen stays suspended |
| Crash | 10% | -80% | Rp 60 | Turnaround fails, return to loss, liquidity crisis |
| Expected | +8% | Rp 322 | Probability-weighted (modest positive, high-risk) |
🟡 Expected return +8% is LOW, but asymmetric risk: huge upside if turnaround succeeds, defined downside if fails.
Ringkasan & Level Teknikal Kuncih2
Faktor pendukung recovery:
- ✓ Turnaround inflection point clear (Q3 2025 profit positive)
- ✓ OCF Rp 115M positive (genuine recovery, not accounting)
- ✓ Revenue growing +10,27% (demand exists)
- ✓ Cost restructuring working (margin improving)
- ✓ Valuation cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
- ✓ Dividen history strong (Rp 13-85 suggests resumption potential)
- ✓ Saham down -82% already reflected worst case
Faktor risiko:
- ❌ TTM still loss (rear-view mirror, but real)
- ❌ Altman 0,43 distress zone
- ❌ Interest coverage negative TTM
- ❌ Working capital tight
- ❌ Downside -50%+ if turnaround stalls
Secara level harga, zona Rp 250-280 mencerminkan area risk/reward yang lebih baik dibanding harga saat ini (Rp 298-320); di atas Rp 400 valuasi mulai mencerminkan skenario recovery penuh sudah terealisasi.
Katalis Kunci untuk Dipantau:
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | Full-year 2025 results (CRITICAL) | Konfirmasi trajectory turnaround |
| H1 2026 | Profit Rp 15M+ target | Sinyal potensi dividen resume |
| 2026+ | Margin normalization (5%+) | Potensi re-rating valuasi |
Sinyal yang Perlu Diwaspadai:
- Q4 2025 profit di bawah Rp 3M mengindikasikan momentum stalling
- Revenue decline mengindikasikan demand weakness
- Margin compression mengindikasikan cost creep returning
- Altman score declining mengindikasikan solvency worsening
- Interest payments missed mengindikasikan financial distress
- Penutupan di bawah Rp 150 secara historis mengindikasikan deteriorasi fundamental lebih lanjut
KESIMPULANh2
PEHA adalah HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND STORY.
Fundamental kritis:
- 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M (real, but from 2024 crisis)
- 🔴 Altman 0,43 distress (but improving)
- ✓ But OCF Rp 115M positive (turnaround genuine)
- ✓ Q3 2025 profit swing positive (inflection confirmed)
Valuation:
- ✓ Cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
- ❌ Potentially expensive IF turnaround fails (downside -50%)
Profil saham ini bercirikan risiko tinggi dan horizon recovery 2-3 tahun, dengan hasil yang sangat bergantung pada apakah management berhasil mengeksekusi turnaround dan sektor farmasi Indonesia melanjutkan pemulihannya. Volatilitasnya membuatnya jauh berbeda dari saham dengan fundamental yang sudah stabil.
Q4 2025 menjadi periode kunci untuk memantau apakah tesis recovery ini berlanjut.
Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, H1 2025 progress report, cost restructuring evidence, dan pharmaceutical industry tailwinds.
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