Analisis Saham PT Maharaksa Biru Energi Tbk (OASA) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)

Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 242 per lembar
Ticker: OASA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Maharaksa Biru Energi Tbk
Sektor: Energi Terbarukan & Konstruksi - Biomassa, Waste-to-Energy (WtE), Engineering & Construction Services
Nilai Pasar: Rp 1.536 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 6,35 Miliar lembar

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Overviewh2

OASA adalah perusahaan transformasi dari jasa konstruksi telco tower menuju pemain energi terbarukan (biomassa, waste-to-energy). Kondisi finansial kritis: TTM loss Rp (77)M, margin negatif -162%, OCF negative Rp (25)M, Altman 8,19 distress zone, interest coverage negative. TAPI momentum positif terlihat: K3 2025 swing profit Rp 2,1M, capex 2025 minimal (Rp < 500jt) untuk persiapan, capex 2026 akan >Rp 100M untuk PSEL project. Strategi: Waste-to-Energy plant di Tangerang Selatan target operasi 2028, full ramp 2029. Harga Rp 242 mencerminkan narasi “green energy + government support”, meski eksekusinya sangat uncertain dan risiko finansial tinggi.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & Update Manajemen Desember 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM (Est)	Rp 47 Miliar	Low, dari carry-over & biomassa
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp (8) Miliar	Negative
EBITDA TTM	Rp (38) Miliar	NEGATIVE EBITDA ❌
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp (77) Miliar	LOSS ❌
Margin Bersih TTM	-162%	DEEPLY NEGATIVE
K3 2025 Profit	Rp 2,1 Miliar	Swing positive (momentum)
Arus Kas Operasi TTM	Rp (25) Miliar	NEGATIVE ❌
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp 24 Miliar	Positive tapi misleading
Capex 2025	< Rp 500 Juta	Minimal (project prep stage)
Capex 2026 Plan	>Rp 100 Miliar	PSEL project begins
D/E Ratio	0,03x	Very low (asset-light)
Altman Score	8,19	DISTRESS ZONE ❌

Profil Transformasi & Risiko:

1. 🔴 Loss-making fundamental - TTM loss Rp (77)M, negative EBITDA, OCF negative (operasional broken)
2. 🟡 Swing profit K3 2025 - Rp 2,1M dari carry-over projects (momentum but temporary)
3. 🔴 Negative cash flow - Burning cash from operations (unsustainable without financing)
4. 🟡 Government support clear - Waste-to-Energy project aligned dengan national waste management agenda
5. 🟡 Capex plan significant - 2026+ >Rp 100M annually untuk PSEL Tangerang Selatan
6. 🔴 Execution risk extreme - 3+ tahun untuk project operational (2028), lots can go wrong
7. 🟡 Dilution planned - Private placement untuk capex financing (shareholder dilution risk)
8. 🟡 Price momentum - Up +76,64% 3 tahun (speculation, not fundamental)

Kesimpulan Awal: OASA adalah extremely risky transformation story dengan negative fundamentals sekarang tapi potential upside jika government waste-to-energy agenda materializes - perusahaan yang loss-making, cash burning, tapi strategically positioning untuk green energy boom. Profil risikonya sangat tinggi dan volatilitasnya mengikuti kepastian eksekusi proyek waste-to-energy pemerintah.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari Lampiran (Per 29 Desember 2025)h3

• Revenue TTM Rp 47M ÷ Saham 6,35B = Rp 7,38 per saham RPS (matches Revenue Per Share TTM 7,38) ✓
• Net loss Rp (77)M ÷ Saham 6,35B = Rp (12,10) per saham EPS (matches approx -12,10) ✓

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM):

Metrik	TTM	K3 2025	K3 2024	K2 2025	K1 2025
Pendapatan	47 Miliar	~7-10M (est)	0	(180)M	(8)M
Laba Kotor	(8) Miliar	Positive swing	Loss	Loss	Loss
Laba Bersih	(77) Miliar	2,1 Miliar ✓	(435)M	(7)M loss	(8)M

⚠️ TTM loss Rp (77)M - company deeply unprofitable overall.

✓ K3 2025 swing positive Rp 2,1M - dari carry-over konstruksi (one-time item).

🔴 K2 2025 loss Rp (180)M extreme - negative spike (unusual).

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp (12,10)
EPS (Annual)	Rp (2,80)
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 7,38
Kas Per Saham	Rp 6,85
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 93,14
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 3,81

🔴 EPS negative Rp (12,10) → Harga Rp 242 / EPS (-12,10) = NEGATIVE P/E (loss company).

🟡 P/B Rp 242 / Rp 93,14 book = 2,60x - High premium untuk loss company (speculation).

🔴 FCF positive Rp 24M tapi misleading (dari financing activities, not operational).

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas	44 Miliar
Total Aset	668 Miliar
Total Liabilitas	79 Miliar
Total Ekuitas	591 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang	0 (none)
Utang Jangka Pendek	17 Miliar
Total Utang	17 Miliar
Net Cash	27 Miliar (positive!)
Modal Kerja	114 Miliar

✓ Net cash position Rp 27M - POSITIVE (bright spot).

✓ D/E 0,03x very low - minimal leverage (conservative balance sheet).

✓ Working capital Rp 114M - adequate short-term buffer.

🟡 Total aset hanya Rp 668M - small company, asset-light model.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	(25) ❌
Arus dari Investasi	50
Arus Kas Bebas	24 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	(42)

🔴 OCF negative Rp (25)M - operational cash burning.

🟡 FCF positive Rp 24M tapi dari investing activities (financing, not sustainable).

🔴 Financing negative Rp (42)M - cash outflow (paying back obligations).

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 242):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	NEGATIVE	🔴 Loss (N/A)
P/B	2,60x	🔴 HIGH untuk loss company
P/S	32,80x	🔴 EXTREMELY HIGH
EV/EBITDA	(40,11)	🔴 Negative (loss)
Price-to-FCF	63,45x	🔴 VERY HIGH

🔴 VALUATION EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE FOR LOSS-MAKING COMPANY - P/S 32,80x absurd, P/B 2,60x high for fundamentally broken company.

Market pricing in MASSIVE transformation potential.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	%
Gross Margin	25,26%
Operating Margin	31,25%
Net Profit Margin	35,07%

⚠️ Margins positive in K3 but this is from one-time carry-over projects (high margin ending), not sustainable.

Pertumbuhan:

Metrik	% YoY
Revenue	-42,38% ❌
Gross Profit	-73,54% ❌
Net Income	595,71% ✓ (from base loss)

🔴 Revenue declining -42% YoY - shrinking operational base.

✓ Net income +595% - but from swing out of bigger loss (not meaningful).

Kesehatan Keuangan:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Current Ratio	2,84x	✓ Good
Quick Ratio	2,84x	✓ Good
D/E	0,03x	✓ Very low
Interest Coverage	-15,12	🔴 NEGATIVE
Altman Score	8,19	🔴 DISTRESS
FCF Quarter	(36) Miliar	🔴 Negative

🔴 Altman 8,19 = FINANCIAL DISTRESS ZONE - company in financial difficulty (despite positive net cash position).

🔴 Interest coverage negative - cannot service any debt from earnings.

✓ Current ratio 2,84x good - short-term liquidity ok.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA	-11,50%
ROE	-12,99%
ROIC	-8,06%

🔴 ALL RETURNS NEGATIVE - destroying shareholder value.

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B. Konteks Operasional & Strategi Transformasih3

Portfolio Bisnis OASA:

1. Konstruksi & Jasa Engineering (Legacy/Declining)

   • PT Telesys Indonesia (anak usaha) - jasa konsultansi & konstruksi telco tower
   • Kontribusi 2025: Terbesar dari carry-over 2024 projects
   • Margin: ~25-30% historis
   • Trend: Declining (telco tower saturated, market mature)

2. Biomassa (Growing But Small)

   • PT Mentari Biru Biomassa - biomassa energy
   • Produk: Wood pellet, biomassa power
   • 2025 kontribusi: Small (capex minimal Rp < 500j)
   • Margin: Expected 15-20% (better than construction)

3. Waste-to-Energy (WtE) - STRATEGIC FOCUS

   • Proyek PSEL (Pengolahan Sampah Energi Listrik) Tangerang Selatan
   • Deskripsi: Plant pengolahan limbah menjadi energi listrik
   • Capex 2026+: >Rp 100M annually untuk development
   • Timeline: Konstruksi 2026-2027, operasi 2028, full ramp 2029
   • Margin potential: 35-45% (high-margin recurring)
   • Government backing: Aligned dengan nasional waste management agenda

Strategic Rationale:

✓ Government Support Explicit:

• Indonesia waste management crisis (daily waste generation ~67M ton, limited landfill capacity)
• Government initiative untuk divert waste ke energy production
• Policy support untuk WtE projects (tariff guarantee, waste supply guaranteed)

✓ Market Opportunity:

• Indonesia WtE capacity: Currently minimal (~5% vs developed countries 30%+)
• Potential: Dozens of plants needed nationally (Raskha LNG + energy transition agenda)
• OASA first-mover positioning untuk regional WtE player

🟡 Capex Plan Aggressive:

• 2026: >Rp 100M (project prep, land, design)
• 2027: >Rp 200M (construction phase)
• 2028+: Operational (revenue generation)
• Total estimated capex: Rp 400-600M+ untuk Tangerang + other projects

Financing Plan:

• Private placement approved (Sept 2025) - 10% dilution untuk capex + working capital
• Bank financing expected 2026+ (capex acceleration)
• Risk: Dilutive equity financing (shareholder dilution ongoing)

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C. Industri Landscape & Kompetisih3

Waste-to-Energy Industry Indonesia:

Kompetitor	Scale	Position
OASA (PERSADA)	Small but first-mover	Tangerang PSEL only
International players	Large	Limited presence in Indonesia
Regional players	Medium	Early stage (few operational)

OASA Positioning (Weak but Strategic):

✓ First-mover advantage - Nias FSRU era (comparison: GTSI, HUMI) vs WtE (OASA first regional player) ✓ Government partnership - Direct support from ESDM, local govt ✓ Technology alignment - WtE aligned dengan national waste management master plan

🔴 Weaknesses:

• Financially weak (loss-making, negative OCF)
• Scale too small (single project focus)
• Execution risk high (no operational WtE track record)
• Capital constrained (dilutive financing only option)

🟡 Opportunities:

• Dozens of potential WtE sites nationally (Indonesia-wide expansion)
• Government tenders for waste management contracts (recurring revenue)
• International ESG investors interest dalam clean energy plays
• Merger/acquisition potential (strategic buyer in energy sector)

🔴 Threats:

• Energy transition long-term (waste demand structural but carbon eventually decline)
• Project execution delays (2028 timeline aggressive)
• Capex cost inflation (construction cost may exceed projections)
• Regulatory changes (tariff guarantee not certain)
• International competition (global WtE player entry)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🔴 LOSS-MAKING, DEEPLY NEGATIVE FUNDAMENTAL, NO PROFITABILITY PATH NEAR-TERM

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	25,26%	Low	-17%	Negative	↑ K3 improving
Margin Operasi	31,25%	Low	Negative	Negative	↑ K3 improving
Margin Bersih	35,07%	-0,1%	-162%	Negative	↑ K3 swing

🔴 TTM margin -162% - DEEPLY UNPROFITABLE overall.

🟡 K3 margin positive - But from one-time carry-over high-margin projects (not sustainable operational).

🔴 Trend deceptive - K3 positive swing misleading (projects ending, not real operational improvement).

Sustainable Profitability?

🔴 NO - NOT SUSTAINABLE NEAR-TERM:

• Current operational base (Telesys construction) declining
• Biomassa segment nascent (revenue minimal)
• WtE only generates revenue 2028+ (3+ years away)
• Until 2028, company will remain loss-making from core operations

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE CASH FLOW, OPERATIONAL BURNING, CRITICAL RISK

Komponen	Nilai
OCF (TTM)	(25) Miliar ❌
Capex (TTM)	0 (minimal)
FCF (TTM)	24 Miliar ✓
Financing (TTM)	(42) Miliar

🔴 OCF negative Rp (25)M - OPERATIONAL CASH BURNING (core problem).

🟡 FCF positive Rp 24M tapi misleading (from financing/investing, not sustainable).

🔴 Financing negative Rp (42)M - paying back obligations, not generating cash.

🔴 Unsustainable: Company will run out of cash if no new financing.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 LOW LEVERAGE POSITIVE, BUT ALTMAN DISTRESS SIGNAL CRITICAL

Metrik	Nilai	Status
D/E Ratio	0,03x	✓ Very low
Debt/Assets	2,5%	✓ Minimal
Altman Score	8,19	🔴 DISTRESS
Interest Coverage	-15,12	🔴 CANNOT PAY
Net Cash	27 Miliar	✓ Positive

✓ D/E 0,03x very low - virtually no debt leverage.

✓ Net cash Rp 27M positive - has cash buffer.

🔴 Altman 8,19 = FINANCIAL DISTRESS ZONE - despite low debt, company shows distress signals (loss-making, negative cash generation).

🔴 Interest coverage negative - cannot service any debt from operations.

Conclusion: Low leverage positive, but operational distress is the real problem (not debt).

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE RETURNS, VALUE DESTRUCTION

Metrik	Nilai
ROE	-12,99%
ROA	-11,50%
ROIC	-8,06%

🔴 ALL NEGATIVE - destroying shareholder capital.

Forward path: If WtE materializes 2028+ with 40% margins, ROE could reach 15-20% by 2030-2032. But this requires: (1) successful execution, (2) no delays, (3) government support continuous. Probability < 40%.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🔴 NO DIVIDEN, PURE SPECULATION

Tahun	Dividen
2025	-
2024	-
TTM	-

🔴 NO DIVIDEN - 100% speculation on WtE upside.

Dividen outlook: Not until 2030+ (WtE ramp, profitability).

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🔴 Loss, no near-term path	0.5/5
2. Arus Kas	🔴 Negative OCF, unsustainable	0.5/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 Low debt, but Altman distress	2/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 All negative	0/5
5. Dividen	🔴 None	0/5
RATA-RATA	🔴 VERY POOR	0.6/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi financial distress with long-term transformation bet - Loss-making, negative cash flow, destroying value. Satu-satunya harapan: WtE project delivery 2028+ dengan successful execution. Ini adalah PURE SPECULATION dengan reward potential tapi downside catastrophic jika project delays.

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation:

Model	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA	N/A (negative EBITDA)
P/B Distress	Rp 50-75 (0,5-0,8x)
DCF Turnaround	Rp 100-150 (if WtE success)
Consensus	Rp 50-150
Current Price	Rp 242
Assessment	🔴 OVERVALUED 60-80%

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Prob	Return	Target
Bull	25%	+150%	Rp 600+
Base	35%	-50%	Rp 120
Bear	40%	-85%	Rp 35
Expected		-40%	Rp 145

Expected return: -40% (probability-weighted) - NEGATIVE with heavy downside.

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Ringkasan & Level Kuncih2

Pada harga Rp 242, valuasi mencerminkan fundamental yang masih sangat lemah (loss-making TTM, negative cash flow, valuasi P/S 32,80x) sekaligus risiko eksekusi proyek WtE yang 3+ tahun ke depan (target operasi 2028). Skenario probability-weighted menunjukkan expected return -40%, dengan zona Rp 100-150 mendekati estimasi fair value distress dan Rp 500-600 mencerminkan skenario di mana berita positif WtE terealisasi.

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KESIMPULANh2

Fundamental OASA saat ini sangat lemah (loss, negative cash), valuasi tergolong overpriced relatif fundamental (P/S 32,80x), dan ketidakpastian eksekusi tinggi. Green energy story menarik secara narrative, namun probabilitas keberhasilannya di bawah 40% berdasarkan skenario yang disusun di atas.

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Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, manajemen update Desember 2025 (public expose), danrencana strategis WtE project.