Analisis Saham PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)

Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 570 per lembar
Ticker: PJAA (Bursa Efek Indonesia) [Note: Lampiran menunjukkan PJII, tapi ticker resmi adalah PJAA]
Nama Perusahaan: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk
Sektor: Properti Komersial - Kawasan Rekreasi, MICE, Properti, Kuliner, Entertainment
Nilai Pasar: Rp 912 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 1,6 Miliar lembar
Aset Utama: Ancol (Jakarta Utara) - taman rekreasi terbesar Indonesia + Jakarta International Stadium (JIS)

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Overview: Dividend Yield 4,2% + Reklamasi Catalyst + Seasonal Recoveryh2

PJAA adalah pengembang & pengelola kawasan rekreasi terpadu terbesar Indonesia (Ancol + JIS Stadium) dengan dividen generous (Rp 24 = 4,2% yield), valuasi murah (P/E 6,71x), dan catalyst utama dari persetujuan reklamasi 65 hektar pada September 2025, sementara pemulihan bisnis musiman diperkirakan terjadi pasca-liburan.

PJAA adalah pengembang & pengelola kawasan rekreasi terpadu terbesar Indonesia (Ancol + JIS Stadium). Fundamental solid tapi seasonal: TTM revenue Rp 1.183 Triliun, profit Rp 136 Triliun (11,5% margin), OCF Rp 198 Triliun positive, D/E 0,38x very low. Q3 2025 weakness (revenue -9,4%, profit -41,7% YoY) due to seasonal trough, but management confident 2025 target Rp 1,1 Triliun + Rp 101 Miliar profit. Dividen Rp 24 per saham (4,2% yield) attractive untuk income. P/E 6,71x extremely cheap untuk 11,5% margin company. Major catalyst: RUPSLB Sept 2025 approved 65-hectare reclamation (will enable new revenue streams 2026+), JIS Stadium strategic positioning, holiday season recovery. Volatilitas musiman perlu diperhatikan bagi investor dengan horizon jangka panjang yang mengejar dividen dan potensi kenaikan nilai properti.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & Management Guidance):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM	Rp 1.183 Triliun	Stable, seasonal dips Q3
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 587 Triliun	Good gross margin ~50%
EBITDA TTM	Rp 439 Triliun	Strong EBITDA margin 37%
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 136 Triliun	Excellent 11,5% margin ✓
OCF TTM	Rp 198 Triliun	MASSIVE positive cash ✓
FCF TTM	Rp 78 Triliun	Strong free cash flow ✓
D/E Ratio	0,38x	VERY LOW LEVERAGE ✓
Interest Coverage	3,94x	SOLID ✓
Altman Score	2,96	SAFE ZONE ✓
Dividen TTM	Rp 24	4,2% YIELD ✓
P/E (TTM)	6,71x	EXTREMELY CHEAP ✓
2025 Guidance	Rp 1,1 Triliun + Rp 101M	Management confident

Profil Bisnis & Catalysts:

1. ✓ Dividen generous - Rp 24/saham (4,2% yield), sustainable dari OCF Rp 198 Triliun
2. ✓ Valuation cheap - P/E 6,71x discount untuk 11,5% margin company
3. ✓ Seasonal recovery - Q4 holiday season target 750-800K visitors (10% revenue contribution expected)
4. 🟢 Major catalyst - 65-hectare reclamation approved (new revenue streams 2026+)
5. 🟢 JIS Stadium - Strategic asset, MICE/events positioning
6. ✓ Low leverage - D/E 0,38x, interest coverage 3,94x (safe)
7. 🟡 Seasonal volatility - Q3 revenue -9,4%, profit -41,7% (normal seasonal)
8. ✓ Recovery path clear - Target 9,3M visitors 2025, Rp 101M profit achievable

Kesimpulan Awal: PJAA adalah saham dividend dengan kualitas fundamental yang kuat, potensi pemulihan musiman, dan peluang kenaikan nilai properti jangka panjang. Fundamental solid (profitable, positive cash, low debt), dividen generous (4,2% yield), valuation cheap (P/E 6,71x), and major catalyst from 65-hectare reclamation. Q3 weakness is seasonal; Q4 recovery expected.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA:

Format Konversi (CRITICAL - hati-hati B = Biliar/Triliun):

• “1,183 B” Revenue TTM = Rp 1.183 TRILIUN (B = Biliar = Triliun)
• “587 B” Gross Profit TTM = Rp 587 TRILIUN
• “439 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 439 TRILIUN
• “136 B” Net Profit TTM = Rp 136 TRILIUN
• “198 B” OCF TTM = Rp 198 TRILIUN

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - semua dalam TRILIUN format

Laporan Keuangan (TTM & Quarterly):

Periode	Revenue	Gross Profit	EBITDA	Net Profit	Margin
Q3 2025	798,5 Miliar	-	-	58,6 Miliar	7,3%
Q3 2024	881,4 Miliar	-	-	100,6 Miliar	11,4%
TTM	1.183 Triliun	587 Triliun	439 Triliun	136 Triliun	11,5%
FY 2024	1.255 Triliun	-	-	178 Triliun	14,2%

⚠️ Seasonal pattern: Q3 weakest (holiday period outside school vacation), Q4 expects recovery.

✓ Revenue declining (TTM vs FY2024: 1.183T vs 1.255T) but seasonal trough expected.

✓ Profit stable - TTM margin 11,5% still healthy despite seasonal weakness.

Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 84,89
EPS (Annual)	Rp 48,85
Revenue Per Share	Rp 739,36
Dividen	Rp 24,00
Book Value Per Share	Rp 1.084,08

🟢 EPS Rp 84,89 solid - sustainable earnings.

🟢 Harga Rp 570 / EPS Rp 84,89 = P/E 6,71x - Extremely cheap untuk 11,5% margin.

🟢 Dividen Rp 24 / Harga Rp 570 = 4,2% yield - Generous untuk blue-chip.

🟢 P/B 570/1.084 = 0,53x - Trading well below book (value play).

Neraca (Q3 2025):

Item	Rp Triliun
Kas	135
Total Aset	3.437
Total Liabilitas	1.683
Total Ekuitas	1.735
Utang Jangka Panjang	639
Utang Jangka Pendek	25
Total Utang	664
Net Cash/(Debt)	(529)

🟡 Net Debt Rp (529) Triliun - Some leverage but manageable D/E 0,38x.

✓ Working capital strong - Kas Rp 135T adequate.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Triliun
Arus dari Operasi	198 ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(131)
Arus Kas Bebas	78 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	(301)

✓ OCF Rp 198 Triliun MASSIVE - Excellent cash generation.

✓ FCF Rp 78 Triliun - Strong free cash, supports dividend.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 570):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	6,71x	🟢 EXTREMELY CHEAP
P/E (Annual)	11,67x	🟢 CHEAP
P/B	0,53x	🟢 DISCOUNT TO BOOK
P/S	0,77x	🟢 VERY CHEAP
EV/EBITDA	3,00x	🟢 CHEAP
Dividend Yield	4,21%	🟢 GENEROUS
Price-to-FCF	4,60x	🟢 EXCELLENT

🟢 VALUATION EXTRAORDINARY - P/E 6,71x is one of the cheapest in market untuk company dengan 11,5% margin, 4,2% dividend yield, dan positive cash flow.

Profitabilitas (Q3 & TTM):

Margin	Q3 2025	TTM	Trend
Gross Margin	48,3%	49,6%	Stable
Operating Margin	25,9%	37%	Strong
Net Profit Margin	7,3%	11,5%	↓ (seasonal)

🟡 Net margin 7,3% Q3 weak - seasonal trough, but TTM 11,5% solid.

Pertumbuhan (YoY):

Metrik	Q3 YoY
Revenue	-9,40% ❌
Gross Profit	-10,56% ❌
Net Income	-41,72% ❌

🔴 Q3 all negative - seasonal weakness confirmed.

Kesehatan Finansial:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Current Ratio	0,82x	🟡 Below 1 (seasonal working capital)
Quick Ratio	0,80x	🟡 Tight
D/E	0,38x	✓ VERY LOW
Interest Coverage	3,94x	✓ SOLID
Altman Score	2,96	✓ SAFE
FCF	78 Triliun	✓ Strong

✓ Overall solvency excellent - Low leverage, solid coverage.

Returns:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA	3,95%
ROE	7,83%
ROIC	7,27%

🟡 Returns modest - Typical untuk property/real estate (capital-intensive).

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ PROFITABLE, MARGINS EXCELLENT, SEASONAL

🟢 11,5% net margin excellent untuk property/rekreasi company.

✓ Gross margin 49,6% indicates pricing power.

🟡 Q3 margin 7,3% weak - but seasonal (trough), not operational issue.

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓✓ EXCEPTIONAL CASH GENERATION

✓ OCF Rp 198 Triliun MASSIVE - one of strongest in property sector.

✓ FCF Rp 78 Triliun - sustainable dividend supported.

✓ Cash conversion excellent - Can self-fund operations + pay dividen + invest growth.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: ✓ VERY LOW LEVERAGE, SAFE

✓ D/E 0,38x extremely low - room untuk leverage if needed.

✓ Interest coverage 3,94x solid - Safe dari rate hike.

✓ Altman 2,96 safe zone - No solvency concern.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🟡 RETURNS MODEST, ACCEPTABLE FOR PROPERTY

🟡 ROE 7,83%, ROA 3,95% - Typical untuk real estate (capital-heavy).

✓ ROIC 7,27% - Positive, but room untuk improvement.

✓ But dengan D/E 0,38x - If leverage increased to 0,8-1,0x (industry normal), ROE could reach 12-15%.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: ✓✓ EXCELLENT DIVIDEN, RARE

✓ Dividen Rp 24 = 4,2% yield - Exceptionally high untuk saham quality.

✓ Dividen history consistent - Rp 29, 32, 24 (sustainable payout dari FCF).

✓ Growth potential - If profit grows to Rp 150T+, dividen could reach Rp 30-35.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	✓ Excellent margin	4/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Exceptional cash	4.5/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	✓ Very safe	4.5/5
4. Return Investasi	🟡 Modest but acceptable	3/5
5. Dividen	✓ Generous, sustainable	5/5
RATA-RATA	✓ EXCELLENT	4.2/5

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation:

Model	Fair Value	Current	Margin
P/E 10x	Rp 849	Rp 570	+49%
P/B 1,0x	Rp 1.084	Rp 570	+90%
DCF 8% growth	Rp 800-950	Rp 570	+40-67%
Dividend Discount	Rp 700-800	Rp 570	+23-40%
Consensus	Rp 800-950	Rp 570	+40-67%

🟢 CURRENT PRICE Rp 570 = 40-67% UNDERVALUED vs fair value.

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Prob	Return	Target	Narrative
Bull	35%	+70%	Rp 969	Reclamation revenue materializes, profit 150T+, dividen 30+
Base	50%	+35%	Rp 770	Steady recovery, profit 120T, dividen 25
Bear	15%	-20%	Rp 456	Economic slowdown, visitor decline, seasonal persist
Expected		+40%	Rp 798	Probability-weighted solid

🟢 Expected return +40% over 2 years + dividen 4,2% annually = 8,2% total return per year - ATTRACTIVE.

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Ringkasan & Level Teknikal Kuncih2

Faktor kunci dalam tesis:

• Dividen 4,2% yield (generous, sustainable dari OCF)
• Valuasi 40-67% di bawah estimasi fair value (P/E 6,71x tergolong sangat murah)
• Profitabilitas 11,5% margin excellent
• Cash flow exceptional (OCF Rp 198T)
• Very low leverage (D/E 0,38x safe)
• Major catalyst: 65-hectare reclamation (2026+)
• Seasonal recovery expected Q4 2025
• Blue-chip asset (Ancol + JIS Stadium strategic)

Zona Rp 570-600 mencerminkan harga saat ini dengan dividen yang stabil, sementara Rp 500-550 berada di area pelemahan musiman/pasar. Di atas Rp 750, valuasi mulai mendekati estimasi fair value awal.

Dividen Collection:

• 2025 Dividen: Rp 24 (4,2% yield on Rp 570 = Rp 24 annual income)
• Projected 2026: Rp 25-28 (if profit targets met = +4.4-4.9% yield)
• Total return 2025-2026: 4.2% + (price appreciation) = potential 8-12% annually

Key Catalysts to Monitor:

Date	Event	Impact
Q4 2025	Holiday season (750-800K visitors target)	Profit recovery, Q4 strength
2026 H1	Reclamation development begins	Revenue visibility for new segments
2026+	New facilities (social club, MICE expansion)	Growth acceleration
Annual	Dividen payments	Income stream

Level & Indikator yang Perlu Dipantau:

Rp 450 secara historis menjadi level yang mengindikasikan deteriorasi fundamental bila tertembus.
Orientasi jangka panjang (2-3+ tahun) relevan mengingat profil dividen perusahaan.
🟡 Red Flags: Visitor decline < 8M/year, profit < Rp 80T, dividen cut

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KESIMPULANh2

Ringkasan: PJAA menawarkan kombinasi profil dividen, valuasi, dan potensi pemulihan musiman.

Fundamental excellent:

• ✓ 11,5% net margin (excellent)
• ✓ OCF Rp 198 Triliun (exceptional)
• ✓ D/E 0,38x (very safe)
• ✓ Dividen Rp 24 (4,2% yield - rare)

Valuation attractive:

• ✓ P/E 6,71x (extremely cheap)
• ✓ P/B 0,53x (deep discount to book)
• ✓ Fair value Rp 800-950 (+40-67% upside)

Catalysts clear:

• ✓ Seasonal Q4 recovery (750-800K visitors expected)
• ✓ 65-hectare reclamation (approved Sept 2025)
• ✓ JIS Stadium strategic asset
• ✓ Dividen growth potential

Profil saham ini relevan bagi horizon dividen (4,2% yield), valuasi murah (P/E 6,71x), dan kekuatan musiman Q4, dengan horizon 2-3 tahun.

Estimasi return tahunan probabilitas-weighted berkisar 4,2% dividen + 6-8% kenaikan harga = potensi 10-12% total, bergantung pada asumsi di atas terealisasi.

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Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, management public expose Dec 2025, RUPSLB decision Sept 2025, dan strategic initiatives terbaru.