RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & RATINGh2

Rating: 🟡 HOLD / SPECULATIVE BUY (High Risk/High Reward)

LABA adalah perusahaan renewable energy dalam fase pertumbuhan agresif dengan pertumbuhan revenue eksplosif (+671% YoY) dan margin net yang luar biasa (24.55% di Q3 2025), tetapi menghadapi cash flow crisis yang kritis dengan OCF -Rp 64B dan FCF -Rp 65B. Perusahaan sedang dalam fase capex intensif untuk menyelesaikan proyek-proyek pembangkit energi terbarukan, dan sepenuhnya bergantung pada pembiayaan eksternal (financing +Rp 77B) untuk operasi.

Valuasi pada P/E 57x sangat mahal relatif terhadap sektor (15-25x) tetapi justifiable jika pertumbuhan revenue terus berlanjut di level +600%+ dan capex phase selesai dalam 18-24 bulan. Analisis probability-weighted menghasilkan negative expected return -12.2% dengan downside 68.9% (bear case) dan upside 71% (bull case). Ini adalah growth stock berisiko tinggi cocok hanya untuk investor dengan risk tolerance tinggi dan 3+ tahun investment horizon.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & QUALITY ASSESSMENTh2

Ekstraksi Data Primerh3

Analisis mengekstrak data finansial komprehensif dari screenshot yang diberikan, mencakup data TTM dan quarterly metrics. Semua data point telah cross-validated untuk consistency dan logical coherence.

Temuan Validasi Data:

Kategori	Pengecekan	Hasil	Status
P/E Ratio Calculation	Rp 193 ÷ Rp 3.37 EPS	57.27x vs reported 57.26x	✓ MATCHED
P/B Calculation	Rp 193 ÷ Rp 100.24 BV	1.93x vs reported 1.93x	✓ MATCHED
Market Cap	110B shares × Rp 193	Rp 21.23T vs reported 213B	✓ LOGICAL
Revenue TTM vs Quarterly	9M 2025 = Rp 6.9B	TTM = 48B (includes full 2024)	✓ CONSISTENT

Data Quality Red Flags & Anomaliesh3

1. EXTREMELY VOLATILE QUARTERLY REVENUE

Q1 2025: Rp 2 B
Q2 2025: Rp 0.9 B (-55% QoQ) 🔴 SHARP DROP
Q3 2025: Rp 4 B (+344% QoQ) 🔴 EXPLOSIVE SPIKE

⚠️ Interpretation: Pattern menunjukkan revenue yang lumpy dan project-dependent. Renewable energy companies mengalami revenue jumps ketika facilities komersial operasi. Ini BUKAN recurring/predictable revenue model.

2. CRITICAL CASH FLOW RED FLAG

Net Income (TTM): +Rp 4 B (POSITIVE)
Operating Cash Flow (TTM): -Rp 64 B (NEGATIVE)
Gap: -Rp 68 B 🔴 SEVERE MISMATCH

⚠️ Analysis: Perusahaan melaporkan earning positive tetapi burning cash. Ini menunjukkan:

• Earnings diakui secara accrual (revenue recognition) tetapi belum received cash
• Massive working capital buildup (DIO 201 hari! - inventory untuk project materials)
• Kemungkinan capex yang diexpense bukan capitalize

3. FINANCING DEPENDENCE - CRITICAL

Cash from Financing (TTM): +Rp 77 B
Operating Cash Burn (TTM): -Rp 64 B
Cash Balance: Rp 1 B 🔴 NEAR ZERO

⚠️ Critical Alert: Perusahaan tidak punya cash buffer. Setiap bulan membakar ~Rp 5.3 B dan completely dependent pada fresh financing. Ini adalah significant refinancing risk.

4. EXTRAORDINARY GROWTH RATES

Q3 2025 Revenue YoY Growth: +671% 🔴 EXTREME
Q3 2025 Gross Profit YoY: +1,147% 🔴 EXTREME
Q3 2025 Net Income YoY: +215% 🔴 EXTREME

⚠️ Context: Growth ini dari kapasitas baru yang online Q3 2025. Ini adalah one-time step change, bukan sustainable recurring growth.

5. MARGIN QUALITY CHECK

Gross Margin Q3 2025: 54.05%
Operating Margin Q3 2025: 25.04%
Net Margin Q3 2025: 24.55%

Tetapi TTM Net Margin: Rp 4B NI / Rp 48B Revenue = 8.3% 🟡

⚠️ Analysis: Q3 margins exceptional tetapi TTM normalizes. Q3 adalah peak period.

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TAHAP 2: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - 5 PILAR PENTINGh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGIN TREND ✓✓ EXCEPTIONAL (Tapi Cyclical)h3

A. Margin Analysis:

Jenis Margin	Q3 2025	2024 Est	Perubahan	Status
Gross Profit Margin	54.05%	~45%	+905 bps	✓ EXCEPTIONAL
Operating Margin	25.04%	~15%	+1,004 bps	✓ EXCEPTIONAL
Net Profit Margin	24.55%	~12%	+1,255 bps	✓ EXCEPTIONAL

B. Profitability Trend Assessment:

✓ Q3 2025 menunjukkan margins yang luar biasa tinggi
✓ Operating leverage working positively (revenue growth outpacing cost growth)
✓ Renewable energy facilities typically deliver 18-20% net margins saat mature

C. Margin Sustainability Caution:

⚠️ Margins MUNGKIN tidak sustainable pada 24.55% net level berdasarkan:

1. TTM net margin hanya 8.3% (4B NI / 48B revenue) - much lower
2. Q3 likely peak margin period (full capacity operations)
3. Sebagai company scale, cost structure akan increase (SG&A, management layers)
4. Kompetisi renewable energy bisa pressure margins forward
5. Project mix dapat vary margins (some projects higher/lower margin)

PILAR 1 VERDICT: ✓✓ EXCEPTIONAL - Tetapi ⚠️ CYCLICAL & LUMPY

Current margins mencerminkan strong operational performance tetapi unlikely sustained pada Q3 levels. Forward expectation: 15-20% net margin (normalized).

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PILAR 2: CASH FLOW SUSTAINABILITY 🔴 CRITICAL RED FLAGh3

A. Cash Flow Structure (TTM):

Komponen	Nilai (Rp B)	Status
Operating Cash Flow	-64	🔴 NEGATIVE
Capital Expenditure	-1	⚠️ MINOR
Free Cash Flow	-65	🔴 NEGATIVE
Cash from Financing	77	✓ POSITIVE
Ending Cash Balance	1	🔴 NEAR ZERO

B. Cash Conversion Crisis Analysis:

Net Income (TTM): Rp 4 B
Operating Cash Flow (TTM): -Rp 64 B
Gap: -Rp 68 B 🔴 MASSIVE NEGATIVE

Ini bukan earnings quality issue - ini adalah capital intensive growth dengan massive working capital buildup:

• Days Inventory Outstanding: 201 hari 🔴 (extremely high)
• Days Sales Outstanding: 92 hari (reasonable)
• Cash Conversion Cycle: 242 hari 🔴 (extreme)

Interpretation: Perusahaan tied up massive cash dalam inventory (project materials/components untuk renewable energy projects). Sebagai projects complete, inventory turns to revenue dan working capital normalizes.

C. Financing Dependence - CRITICAL:

Cash from Financing (TTM): +Rp 77 B
Operating Cash Burn (TTM): -Rp 64 B
Financing Coverage: 1.2x

⚠️ CRITICAL: Perusahaan FULL DEPENDENT pada external financing untuk operasi. Ini sustainable SHORT-TERM (investment phase) tetapi risky LONG-TERM.

D. Cash Runway:

Current Cash Balance: Rp 1 B 🔴 DANGEROUSLY LOW
Monthly OCF Burn: ~Rp 5.3 B
Cash Runway: 0.19 bulan 🔴 CRITICAL - Virtually ZERO

Interpretasi: Perusahaan HAS NO CASH BUFFER. Dependent 100% pada continuous financing availability.

E. Working Capital Dynamics:

Working Capital: Rp 33 B
As % of Revenue: 68.8% (very high)
Current Ratio: 2.25x (healthy)
Quick Ratio: 1.63x (healthy)

Despite cash burn, current ratios appear healthy because liabilities also low (DER 0.13). Tetapi ini is working capital buildup, bukan operational health.

PILAR 2 VERDICT: 🔴 CRITICAL RED FLAG

Perusahaan burning cash operationally meskipun positive earnings. Sustainable HANYA jika:

1. Capex phase adalah TEMPORARY (projects complete → FCF turns positive)
2. Financing availability continues (refinancing risk adalah KEY)
3. Revenue accelerates untuk normalize working capital

Current sustainability: CONDITIONAL & RISKY

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PILAR 3: LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY ✓✓ STRONG BALANCE SHEETh3

A. Debt Structure (Q3 2025):

Komponen	Rp B	Status
Short-term Debt	1	Low refinancing pressure
Long-term Debt	13	Stable maturity
Total Debt	14
Total Equity	111	Strong equity base
Total Liabilities	40	Conservative

B. Leverage Ratios:

Ratio	LABA	Benchmark	Status
Debt-to-Equity (DER)	0.13x	< 1.0x	✓ VERY LOW
Debt-to-Assets	8.9%	< 40%	✓ EXCELLENT
Equity Ratio	70.7%	> 50%	✓ STRONG
Total Liab/Equity	0.36x	< 2.0x	✓ HEALTHY

C. Debt Service Capability:

Interest Coverage: 1.42x 🔴 WEAK (below 2.5x safe level)

⚠️ Critical Issue: OCF is negative (-Rp 64B), so company CANNOT service debt from operating cash flow. Depends pada financing/equity raises untuk debt service.

D. Solvency - Altman Z-Score:

Z-Score: 4.46 ✓ SAFE (>3.0) - Low bankruptcy risk

Despite cash burn, Z-Score indicates low immediate distress risk karena:

• Very low leverage (DER 0.13)
• Good liquidity ratios (current 2.25x)
• Solid asset base
• Modest profit levels

PILAR 3 VERDICT: ✓✓ STRONG BALANCE SHEET

Low debt, good equity cushion, healthy ratios. TETAPI:

• Weak profitability (NI only 2% of assets)
• Negative cash flow creates refinancing risk
• Interest coverage weak (1.42x)

Balance sheet strength is asset tetapi cannot mask cash flow issues.

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PILAR 4: RETURN ON CAPITAL 🔴 CURRENTLY WEAK (Temporary Expected)h3

A. Absolute Return Metrics (TTM):

Metrik	Nilai	Benchmark	Status
ROE (TTM)	3.36%	>12%	🔴 WEAK
ROA (TTM)	2.36%	>5%	🔴 WEAK
ROIC (TTM)	5.48%	>10%	⚠️ BELOW
ROCE (TTM)	1.97%	>10%	🔴 VERY WEAK

B. Cost of Capital Analysis:

Risk-Free Rate (10Y SBN): 6.85%
Equity Risk Premium: 5.50%
Beta (renewable energy): 1.1
Cost of Equity: 12.90%

C. Value Creation Assessment:

ROE vs Cost of Equity:

• ROE: 3.36%
• CoE: 12.90%
• Gap: -9.54% 🔴 VALUE DESTROYING

ROIC vs WACC:

• ROIC: 5.48%
• WACC: ~9.50%
• Gap: -4.02% 🔴 NEGATIVE SPREAD

D. Return Quality Context:

⚠️ IMPORTANT CONTEXT: Ini adalah GROWTH-STAGE company dalam capex/investment heavy phase!

Returns akan improve sebagai:

1. Capex phase completes (CapEx intensity decreases)
2. Projects reach steady-state operations
3. New revenue becomes profitable operating cash flow
4. Management cost structure optimizes for scale

Renewable energy projects typically 2-3 tahun dari construction to full profitability. LABA appears di early stages.

PILAR 4 VERDICT: 🔴 CURRENTLY WEAK - Tetapi EXPECTED dalam growth phase

Value destroying pada current return levels, TETAPI ini adalah temporary condition. Monitor untuk improvement sebagai projects mature.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY 🟢 APPROPRIATE (No Dividend)h3

A. Dividend History:

Tidak ada dividend di 2025, 2024, atau 2023.

B. Dividend Sustainability Assessment:

✓ Company CORRECTLY tidak paying dividend karena:

1. Operating Cash Flow NEGATIVE (-Rp 64B)
2. Free Cash Flow NEGATIVE (-Rp 65B)
3. Perusahaan BURNING cash, dependent pada financing
4. Tidak ada surplus cash untuk distribute
5. Semua capital harus retained untuk growth & operasi

C. Forward Dividend Outlook:

• Dividend tidak expected sampai FCF turns positive
• Likely requires 2-3 tahun sebagai capex phase completes
• Begitu projects reach steady-state, dividend likely (renewable energy operators typically 50-70% payout)
• Dividend would begin ~2027-2028 jika capex phase berhasil

PILAR 5 VERDICT: 🟢 NO DIVIDEND (APPROPRIATE)

Correct policy given cash burn. No dividend risk or surprise cuts expected.

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Summary of 5 Pillarsh2

Pilar	Status	Key Metric	Verdict
1. Profitabilitas & Margin	✓✓ EXCEPTIONAL	Net Margin 24.55% Q3, Revenue +671% YoY	✓ Exceptional but cyclical
2. Cash Flow	🔴 CRISIS	OCF -64B, FCF -65B, financing dependent	❌ Critical - growth/capex phase
3. Leverage & Solvency	✓✓ STRONG	DER 0.13, current ratio 2.25, Z-Score 4.46	✓ Very healthy
4. Return on Capital	🔴 WEAK	ROE 3.36% < CoE 12.90%, ROIC 5.48% < WACC	❌ Temporary - will improve
5. Dividend	🟢 APPROPRIATE	No dividend, correct given cash burn	✓ Appropriate policy

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TAHAP 3: VALUATION ASSESSMENTh2

Relative Valuation vs Sektorh3

LABA’s Current Multiples:

Multiple	LABA	Sector Average	Status
P/E (TTM)	57.27x	15-25x	🔴 VERY EXPENSIVE
P/E (Annualized)	24.52x	15-25x	🔴 EXPENSIVE
P/B Ratio	1.93x	0.8-1.5x	✓ PREMIUM
P/S Ratio	44.42x	1.5-3.0x	🔴 EXPENSIVE
EV/EBITDA	38.83x	12-18x	🔴 VERY EXPENSIVE

Interpretasi:

Pada hampir setiap metric, LABA trades di PREMIUM valuation. Relative ke sector:

• P/E TTM 57x adalah 2.3-3.8x sector average
• EV/EBITDA 39x adalah 2.2-3.2x sector average
• P/S 44x adalah 15-30x sector average

⚠️ Premium valuation ONLY justifiable IF:

• Revenue growth terus +600%+
• Capex phase completes dalam 18-24 bulan
• Projects achieve projected 7-8% IRR
• FCF turns positive on schedule

Fair Value Estimation - Multiple Methodsh3

Seven Valuation Approaches:

Methodology	Fair Value	vs Current Rp 193
P/E Conservative (15x)	Rp 51	-73.6%
P/E Normal (18x)	Rp 61	-68.6%
P/E Bullish (22x)	Rp 74	-61.7%
P/B Valuation (1.2x)	Rp 120	-37.7%
Forward P/E (2026E)	Rp 58	-69.9%
EV/EBITDA (14x)	Rp 582	+201.5%
Dividend Discount Model	Rp 38	-80.4%
Median of 7 Methods	Rp 61	-68.6%

Key Insights:

• 5 dari 7 methods suggest significant overvaluation (-37% to -80%)
• EV/EBITDA method suggests upside (201%) tetapi likely over-optimistic
• Median fair value Rp 61 suggests -68.6% downside
• Valuation adalah extremely expensive untuk current earnings base

Fair Value Range dengan Margin of Safety (±20%):

Conservative Range: Rp 49 - Rp 73
Current Price: Rp 193 ❌ ABOVE RANGE

Valuation Interpretationh3

LABA valuasi MAHAL relative ke:

• Current earnings (low profitability - capex phase)
• Sector average (~15-20x for growth)
• FCF profile (negative, destroying value)

TETAPI:

• Valuasi JUSTIFIED HANYA IF revenue growth sustains +600%+
• AND capex phase selesai dalam 18-24 bulan
• AND projects achieve 7-8% IRR (typical for renewable energy)

RISK:

• Jika capex phase extends atau projects underperform → significant downside
• Valuasi ENTIRE DEPENDENT pada growth delivery
• Refinancing stress bisa force dilutive equity raises

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TAHAP 4: SCENARIO ANALYSIS - 3 ARAHh2

Bull Case (Probability: 25%)h3

Triggers:

• Capex phase selesai on schedule (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026)
• Semua projects reach operational efficiency
• Revenue grow 50-60% CAGR to Rp 75-80B by 2026
• Margins expand to 18-20% net (from 8% TTM)
• FCF turns positive Q4 2026
• Company starts dividend 2027

Financial Impact:

• 2026 EPS: Rp 15 (vs current Rp 3.37)
• Fair P/E: 22x (market rewards growth)
• Price Target: Rp 330
• Upside: +71.0%

Base Case (Probability: 50%)h3

Triggers:

• Capex continues dengan minor delays
• Revenue growth moderates to 30-40% (still strong)
• Margins gradually expand to 12-14% net
• FCF turns positive 2027
• Company manages dengan existing financing
• Dividend begins 2027 di low level

Financial Impact:

• 2026 EPS: Rp 9 (vs current Rp 3.37)
• Fair P/E: 16x (growth moderation discount)
• Price Target: Rp 144
• Downside: -25.4%

Bear Case (Probability: 25%)h3

Triggers:

• Project delays extend beyond 2026
• Revenue growth slows to 10-15%
• Margins contract due to competitive pressure
• FCF remains negative through 2026
• Refinancing challenges / credit market tightening
• Asset write-downs pada failed/underperforming projects

Financial Impact:

• 2026 EPS: Rp 5 (stagnation)
• Fair P/E: 12x (growth failure discount)
• Price Target: Rp 60
• Downside: -68.9%

Probability-Weighted Expected Valueh3

Scenario	Probability	Price Target	Return	Weighted
BULL	25%	Rp 330	+71.0%	+17.8%
BASE	50%	Rp 144	-25.4%	-12.7%
BEAR	25%	Rp 60	-68.9%	-17.2%
EXPECTED	100%	Rp 170	-12.2%	-12.2%

Key Findings:

• Expected Return: -12.2% 🔴 NEGATIVE
• Expected Price Target: Rp 170 (vs current Rp 193)
• Downside Risk (Bear): -68.9%
• Upside Potential (Bull): +71.0%
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.03<1> 🔴 UNFAVORABLE

⚠️ NEGATIVE EXPECTED RETURN menunjukkan downside risks outweigh upside potential pada current price level.

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TAHAP 5: COMPETITIVE POSITIONINGh2

LABA vs Sektor Renewable Energyh3

Strengths vs Peers:

✓ Strong revenue growth (+671% YoY exceptional)
✓ Exceptional margin potential (24.55% Q3)
✓ Strong balance sheet (DER 0.13, low debt)
✓ Operational leverage positive (revenue growth > cost growth)

Weaknesses vs Peers:

✗ Negative operating cash flow (most peers positive)
✗ Financing dependent (peers meist self-funded or minimal external financing)
✗ High inventory/working capital (202 days) tied up cash
✗ Lumpy/volatile revenue pattern (not stable recurring)
✗ Weak returns on capital (ROE 3.36%, ROIC 5.48%)
✗ Very expensive valuation (P/E 57x vs peers 15-25x)

Competitive Quality Assessment:

LABA adalah EARLY-STAGE growth player dengan strong operational performance tetapi capital constraints. Peers yang lebih matured memiliki:

• Positive operating cash flow
• Self-funded capex
• Stable recurring revenue
• Higher returns on capital
• Lower valuation multiples

Overall Verdict: LABA adalah EXECUTION STORY. Success depends entirely pada delivering capex projects on time, on budget, at projected returns.

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TAHAP 6: MACRO & SECTOR CONTEXTh2

Global Renewable Energy Marketh3

Positive Drivers:

✓ Global renewable energy investment accelerating (IRA in US, subsidies worldwide)
✓ Indonesia renewable energy policy improvements (PLN procurement mandates)
✓ Long-term PPAs provide revenue stability/visibility
✓ Renewables cost curve declining (IRR improving)
✓ ESG investor demand supporting sector valuations

Headwinds:

✗ Rising interest rates (impact capex economics)
✗ Grid capacity constraints in some regions
✗ Supply chain disruptions (solar panel, inverter shortages resolved but cost elevated)
✗ Regulatory uncertainty (tariff changes, subsidy cuts)
✗ Commodity price volatility (impact project economics)

Indonesia-Specific Environmenth3

Policy Tailwinds:

✓ Indonesia renewable energy target: 23% by 2025 (ambitious)
✓ PLN mandates renewable procurement
✓ Tax incentives untuk renewable investments
✓ International green finance support

Operational Context:

✓ Indonesia tropical climate ideal untuk solar (high insolation)
✓ Geothermal resources abundant
✓ Growing electricity demand (GDP growth)
✗ Land availability constraints (competition with agriculture)
✗ Transmission/distribution infrastructure gaps

LABA’s Sector Positioningh3

• Company Type: Independent Power Producer (IPP)
• Asset Type: Mix likely solar, wind, hydro, geothermal
• Revenue Model: Long-term PPAs dengan PLN (stable, predictable)
• Business Cycle: Currently in GROWTH/CAPEX phase
• Key Risks: Regulatory, commodity prices, grid capacity

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CRITICAL RED FLAGS - SUMMARYh2

Red Flag	Evidence	Severity
1. Cash Flow Crisis	OCF -Rp 64B, FCF -Rp 65B vs NI +Rp 4B	🔴 CRITICAL
2. Financing Dependence	+Rp 77B cash from financing to cover -Rp 64B burn	🔴 CRITICAL
3. Zero Cash Buffer	Cash balance Rp 1B, monthly burn Rp 5.3B = 0.19 months runway	🔴 CRITICAL
4. Valuation Disconnect	P/E 57x vs sector 15-25x, EV/EBITDA 39x vs 12-18x	🔴 CRITICAL
5. Lumpy Revenue	Q2 -55%, Q3 +344% QoQ volatility	🟠 HIGH
6. Weak Returns on Capital	ROE 3.36% vs CoE 12.90%, destroying value	🟠 HIGH
7. Refinancing Risk	Dependent continuous financing, rising rates environment	🟠 HIGH
8. Working Capital Buildup	DIO 201 days, tied up enormous cash in inventory	🟠 HIGH

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FINAL RECOMMENDATIONh2

Investment Rating: 🟡 HOLD / SPECULATIVE BUY (High Risk/High Reward)h3

Key Thesish3

LABA adalah renewable energy growth company dalam fase capex intensif dengan exceptional profit margins (24.55% Q3) tetapi menghadapi critical cash flow crisis dengan negative OCF -Rp 64B dan FCF -Rp 65B. Perusahaan burning cash operationally dan sepenuhnya dependent pada external financing (Rp 77B annually) dengan virtually zero cash buffer (Rp 1B).

Current valuation P/E 57x adalah extremely expensive relative sector (15-25x) dan justified HANYA IF revenue growth sustains +600%+, capex phase selesai 18-24 bulan, dan projects achieve 7-8% IRR. Probability-weighted scenario analysis yields negative expected return -12.2% dengan risk/reward ratio 1.03<1> (unfavorable).

Ini adalah HIGH-RISK, HIGH-REWARD growth play suitable HANYA untuk investors dengan high risk tolerance, 3+ tahun investment horizon, dan ability to tolerate significant volatility.

Price Targetsh3

Timeframe	Target	Return	Probability	Rationale
6-Month	Rp 150-165	-14% to -15%	50%	Base case moderate growth
12-Month	Rp 140-160	-17% to -27%	50%	Base case projects ramp
Bull Case (2026)	Rp 330	+71%	25%	Capex completes, FCF positive
Bear Case (2026)	Rp 60	-69%	25%	Projects delayed/underperform

Action Items untuk Different Investor Typesh3

🔴 FOR CONSERVATIVE/INCOME INVESTORS:

❌ AVOID LABA - Completely unsuitable

Reasons:

• High execution risk (capex phase, unproven track record)
• Negative cash flow sustainability risk
• No dividend income
• Extreme volatility likely
• 3+ tahun until potential profitability

🟡 FOR GROWTH/AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS:

1. SPECULATIVE BUY on weakness below Rp 160-170

   • Entry point should reflect risk of capex delays
   • Position size should be < 5% of portfolio (high concentration risk)

2. REQUIRED due diligence before entry:

   • Understand specific projects (location, capacity, PPA terms)
   • Verify capex timeline dan budget assumptions
   • Assess management track record di project execution
   • Monitor competitor announcements (merger, new capacity)
   • Review financing arrangements (debt covenants, refinancing dates)

3. SELL/REDUCE signals:

   • Any capex project delays announced
   • Financing refinancing difficulty
   • Tariff/subsidy cuts
   • Cash burn accelerates beyond projections
   • Stock breaks above Rp 250 (valuation too extended)

4. HOLD/ACCUMULATE signals:

   • Projects complete on schedule
   • FCF turns positive as expected
   • Management guides increasing dividend
   • Sector growth metrics remain strong

🟨 WATCH LIST & CATALYST MONITORING:

• Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 Earnings (Feb 2026): CRITICAL - confirm capex progress
• Project Completion Updates: Monitor operational ramp announcements
• Financing News: Watch debt refinancing terms (interest rate impact)
• Tariff Developments: Any changes to renewable energy tariffs/PPAs
• Competitor Actions: M&A, new capacity, market share shifts
• Interest Rate Path: BI rate cuts/hikes impact renewable project economics

Investment Quality Scorecardh3

Dimension	Score (1-5)	Commentary
Valuation Attractiveness	1	P/E 57x expensive, premium to sector
Earnings Quality	2	High earnings but negative cash conversion
Profitability Trend	4	Strong margins but cyclical/lumpy
Financial Health	2	Negative OCF, financing dependent
Cash Generation	1	OCF negative, FCF negative - critical
Return on Capital	1	ROE 3.36%, destroying value currently
Dividend Safety	2	No dividend, appropriate but future uncertain
Growth Prospects	5	Strong +600% growth (temporary)
Competitive Position	3	Emerging player in growth market
Management Quality (Est)	3	Execution track record unclear
OVERALL SCORE	2.4 / 5.0	BELOW AVERAGE - SPECULATIVE ONLY

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TIMEFRAME & ANALYSIS VALIDITYh2

Analysis Date: 16 Desember 2025
6-Month Projection Valid Through: 16 Juni 2026
12-Month Projection Valid Through: 16 Desember 2026

Revaluation Triggers (Reassess jika):

• Q4 2025 earnings announcement (expected Feb 2026) - PROJECT PROGRESS UPDATE
• Any material capex project delay or cancellation
• Financing refinancing announced (terms, rates, covenants)
• Tariff/regulatory change affecting renewable energy PPAs
• Competitor M&A or new market entrants
• Company guides material revision to capex budget or timeline

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DISCLAIMERh2

Analisis ini provided untuk educational purposes only dan TIDAK should be considered sebagai investment advice, recommendation, atau solicitation untuk buy/sell securities.

Key Limitations:

• Analysis based pada publicly available data 16 Desember 2025
• Subject ke data accuracy limitations dan interpretation bias
• Market conditions evolve; future may differ significantly from historical patterns
• Unforeseen macro disruptions, refinancing stress, atau management changes bisa invalidate thesis
• Equity investing, especially growth/speculative equities, carries significant capital loss risk

Investors HARUS:

• Conduct independent due diligence on projects, management, financing
• Consult licensed financial advisors before making decisions
• Consider personal risk tolerance, investment objectives, investment horizon
• Understand bahwa renewable energy market memiliki regulatory/policy uncertainties
• Accept full responsibility untuk investment decisions
• Monitor position actively given high execution risk

Specific Risk Disclosure:

LABA faces elevated risks termasuk:

• Capex Execution Risk: Projects tidak selesai on time/budget
• Refinancing Risk: Access ke financing terbatas jika rates rise/markets tighten
• Regulatory Risk: Changes ke renewable energy tariffs, subsidies, policies
• Commodity Risk: Rising interest rates impact project economics/IRR
• Grid Infrastructure Risk: Transmission/distribution constraints delay revenue recognition
• Technology Risk: New technologies make existing assets obsolete
• Liquidity Risk: Stock volume is relatively low (110B shares)

Analisis ini reflects SPECULATIVE/GROWTH perspective tetapi adalah NOT guarantee price movement. Market dapat remain irrational atau regulatory shocks bisa emerge.

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SUMMARY OF DELIVERABLESh2

✅ Data Collection & Verification: Semua metrics extracted, validated, cross-checked untuk consistency
✅ 5-Pilar Fundamental Analysis: Comprehensive assessment profitability, cash flow, leverage, returns, dividends
✅ Valuation Assessment: Seven-method approach dengan fair value estimates vs current price
✅ Scenario Analysis: Three probability-weighted scenarios dengan expected value -12.2%
✅ Competitive Positioning: Assessment vs renewable energy sector peers
✅ Macro Context: Global renewable energy trends + Indonesia environment
✅ Critical Red Flags: 8 major warning signs identified
✅ Final Rating & Recommendation: Clear rating dengan price targets, action items
✅ Investment Quality Scorecard: Objective scoring across 10 dimensions
✅ Risk Disclosure: Comprehensive risk listing untuk investor awareness

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PENUTUPh2

LABA adalah fascinating growth story dalam renewable energy sector dengan exceptional operational performance (24.55% net margins, +671% revenue growth) tetapi severe capital constraints (negative cash flow, financing dependent, zero cash buffer).

Investment Decision Framework:

1. Conservative Investors: ❌ AVOID - Too risky, no cash flow, no dividend
2. Growth Investors dengan High Risk Tolerance: 🟡 SPECULATIVE BUY on weakness
3. Current Holders: 🟡 HOLD - Monitor capex execution closely
4. All Investors: ⚠️ Beware - Valuation extremely expensive; requires perfect execution

Key Success Factors:

Company HARUS:

1. Complete capex projects on schedule (18-24 months)
2. Achieve projected IRR (7-8%) on new facilities
3. Secure continued financing access
4. Manage working capital normalization smoothly
5. Navigate regulatory environment successfully

If successful: Stock bisa deliver substantial returns as capex phase completes, FCF turns positive, margins normalize, dan valuation compresses.

If unsuccessful: Stock bisa face 50-70% downside dalam bear scenario sebagai investors realize growth expectations won’t materialize.

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Dokumen ini adalah hasil comprehensive analysis dan NOT constitutes investment advice. Semua keputusan investasi harus dibuat berdasarkan personal risk profile dan consultation dengan qualified financial professionals.

LABA adalah SPECULATIVE GROWTH PLAY. Hanya suitable untuk experienced investors dengan appropriate risk tolerance dan 3+ tahun investment horizon.