Analisis kuantitatif dan fundamental mendalam terhadap saham BBRM (PT Pelayaran National Bina Buana Raya Tbk) per kuartal ketiga 2025, mencakup verifikasi data, penilaian fundamental 5 pilar, evaluasi valuasi, analisis skenario, posisi kompetitif, konteks makro dan sektor, serta rekomendasi investasi akhir.
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini bukan nasihat investasi. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Analisis Saham Kuantitatif & Fundamentalh2
Tanggal Analisis: 16 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 157 per lembar
Sektor: Transportasi & Logistik (Shipping & Pelayaran)
Market Cap: Rp 1,323 Miliar
Saham Beredar: 8,48 Miliar
RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & RATINGh2
Rating: 🟢 BUY (High-Growth Turnaround, Quality at Recovery Stage)
BBRM menunjukkan extraordinary recovery trajectory dengan revenue tumbuh +6.47% YoY, tetapi profit tumbuh jauh lebih cepat: Net Income +48.74% YoY, Gross Profit +33.95% YoY. Ini mengindikasikan significant margin expansion & operational efficiency improvement. Valuasi pada P/E TTM 12.38x menarik untuk perusahaan dengan ROE 15.18%, earnings yield 8.08%, dan exceptional cash conversion.
Balance sheet sangat kuat (DER 0.06x, net cash position Rp 162B, Z-Score 9.18), dengan cash flow positif (OCF Rp 129B, FCF Rp 37B). Meskipun belum membayar dividen, payout ratio 0% memberi flexibility untuk dividend initiation yang bisa significantly boost returns. Dengan market positioning dalam sektor pelayaran yang recovering, BBRM adalah quality turnaround play dengan strong fundamentals, safe balance sheet, dan multi-year upside potential.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & QUALITY ASSESSMENTh2
Ekstraksi Data Primer (Dari Screenshot)h3
Income Statement (TTM & Quarterly 2025):
| Metrik | TTM (Rp B) | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 232 | 20 | 25 | 24 |
| Gross Profit | 118 | - | - | - |
| EBITDA | 131 | - | - | - |
| Net Income | 107 | 13 | 64 | 16 |
9M 2025 NI Total: 13 + 64 + 16 = 93B (interesting: Q2 exceptionally high)
TTM NI: 107B, maka implied Q4 2024 NI: 107 - 93 = 14B
⚠️ Q2 Anomaly: Q2 2025 NI Rp 64B jauh lebih tinggi dari Q1 (13B) dan Q3 (16B). Kemungkinan:
- One-time gain/extraordinary item di Q2
- Seasonal shipping strength
- atau timing of revenue recognition
Balance Sheet (Quarter Current):
| Item | Nilai (Rp B) |
|---|---|
| Cash | 219 |
| Total Assets | 1,374 |
| Total Liabilities | 670 |
| Total Equity | 704 |
| Long-term Debt | 43 |
| Short-term Debt | 15 |
| Total Debt | 57 |
| Net Debt | (162) |
| Working Capital | 255 |
Net Cash Position: Rp 162B (Cash > Debt) 🟢 Significant strength
Cash Flow Statement (TTM):
| Komponen | Nilai (Rp B) |
|---|---|
| Cash From Operations (OCF) | 129 |
| Capital Expenditure (Capex) | (92) |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 37 |
| Cash From Investing | (96) |
| Cash From Financing | (11) |
Per Share Metrics:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | Rp 12.60 |
| EPS (Annualised) | Rp 10.79 |
| Revenue per Share (TTM) | Rp 27.39 |
| Cash per Share (Quarter) | Rp 25.84 |
| Book Value per Share | Rp 83.04 |
| Free Cash Flow per Share (TTM) | Rp 4.37 |
Valuation Multiples:
| Multiple | Nilai |
|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 12.38x |
| P/E Annualised | 14.46x |
| P/B | 1.88x |
| P/S (TTM) | 5.70x |
| EV/EBIT (TTM) | 5.58x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 9.00x |
| Earnings Yield (TTM) | 8.08% |
Profitability (Quarter Q3 2025):
| Margin | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 46.56% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 38.92% |
| Net Profit Margin | 44.73% |
⚠️ EXTREME MARGINS ALERT: Net margin 44.73% adalah extremely high untuk shipping. Ini likely driven by Q2 extraordinary item atau favorable one-off revenue mix. TTM normalized net margin: 107/232 ≈ 46% (still extremely high, mungkin indicate Q3 underperformance or special event).
YoY Growth (Q3 2025):
| Metrik | Growth |
|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.47% |
| Gross Profit | +33.95% |
| Net Income | +48.74% |
Solvency & Returns:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 10.39x |
| Quick Ratio | 10.35x |
| Debt to Equity | 0.06x |
| Total Liab/Assets | 0.07x |
| Interest Coverage (TTM) | 17.26x |
| Altman Z-Score (Modified) | 9.18 |
| ROA (TTM) | 13.80% |
| ROE (TTM) | 15.18% |
| ROCE (TTM) | 13.98% |
| ROIC (TTM) | 13.35% |
Data Quality Assessment & Anomaliesh3
-
Q2 2025 Exceptional NI (Rp 64B):
This is 3.9x higher than Q3 (16B) dan 4.9x higher than Q1 (13B). Not sustainable baseline. Likely one-time or favorable seasonal event. -
Extremely High Margins:
- TTM NM 46% is exceptionally high untuk shipping
- Q3 margin 44.73% also extreme
- Likelihoods: mix favorable contracts, seasonal peak, atau one-off gains
-
Very Low Leverage:
- DER 0.06x is among lowest di sektor
- Current ratio 10.39x extremely high (excess cash position)
- Debt/Assets 0.07x very conservative
-
Strong Return Metrics:
- ROE 15.18%, ROIC 13.98%
- Consistent dengan profitability margins observed
-
FCF Positive but Small:
- FCF Rp 37B much smaller than OCF Rp 129B
- Capex Rp 92B (40% of OCF) reflects growth investment
- Positive FCF sustainable jika capex controlled
Conclusion: Data consistent overall, but profitability highly influenced by exceptional Q2 2025 result (likely non-recurring). Normalized earnings power should be assessed at ~Rp 70-80B annually (vs TTM 107B yang inflated oleh Q2).
TAHAP 2: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGIN TRENDh3
A. Margin Snapshot (Caveat: Q2 inflated):
| Margin | Q3 2025 | TTM (Distorted) | “Normalized” |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 46.56% | ~50.8% | ~30-35% |
| Operating Margin | 38.92% | ~56.4% | ~20-25% |
| Net Margin | 44.73% | ~46% | ~15-20% |
B. YoY Growth Analysis:
- Revenue: +6.47% (modest, stable growth)
- Gross Profit: +33.95% (much stronger than revenue)
- Net Income: +48.74% (strongest growth)
Pattern: Margin expansion accelerating; profit growth >> revenue growth → operational efficiency improvements or favorable mix.
C. Q3 2025 vs Historical:
Q3 2025 net margin 44.73% is likely peak/exceptional given Q1 (margin likely ~65%, 13B NI on ~20B revenue) dan Q2 spike. Normalized expectation:
- Gross margin: 30-35%
- Operating margin: 15-20%
- Net margin: 10-15% (sustainable)
D. Sustainability Concerns:
⚠️ CRITICAL: Margins at reported levels are NOT sustainable. More realistic normalized profit:
- If margin normalize to 12% net: sustainable annual NI ~Rp 28B (vs reported Rp 107B)
- Or if TTM is accurate, current high margins maintained only with favorable contracts/conditions
Verdict Pilar 1: 🟡 PROFITABILITAS MEMBAIK TAPI INFLATED
Underlying trend positive (margin expansion, profit growth > revenue), tetapi absolute margin levels likely unsustainable. Normalized earnings closer to Rp 70-90B (vs TTM 107B), suggesting current earnings power ~Rp 30% lower than reported.
PILAR 2: CASH FLOW SUSTAINABILITYh3
A. Cash Flow Structure (TTM):
| Komponen | Nilai (Rp B) |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | 129 |
| Capital Expenditure (Capex) | (92) |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 37 |
B. Quality of Earnings:
- Cash Conversion Ratio = OCF / NI = 129 / 107 ≈ 1.21x
- Interpretation: For every Rp 1 of reported profit, company generates Rp 1.21 cash.
- Good conversion, suggesting earnings not heavily inflated by accruals
C. FCF Assessment:
- FCF Rp 37B positive despite high capex → company generating real cash
- FCF per share: Rp 4.37 (vs EPS Rp 12.60 TTM)
- FCF/NI ratio: 37/107 ≈ 35% → typical for company in investment phase
D. Capex Intensity:
- Capex Rp 92B / Revenue Rp 232B ≈ 39.7% capex intensity
- High for shipping (fleet/asset renewal)
- Suggests growth investment phase, which should drive future earnings
E. Working Capital:
- Working Capital: Rp 255B (positive, healthy)
- DSO 81.65 days (customer collection reasonable)
- DIO 5.89 days (very low, minimal inventory)
- DPO 28.13 days
- CCC: ~59 days (tied-up working capital)
Verdict Pilar 2: ✓✓ CASH FLOW STRONG & QUALITY
OCF robust, FCF positive, cash conversion good. Company not just “paper profit” - generating real cash. High capex is investment not distress, should improve future earnings power.
PILAR 3: LEVERAGE & SOLVENCYh3
A. Debt Structure:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| Total Debt | Rp 57 B |
| Long-term Debt | Rp 43 B (75%) |
| Short-term Debt | Rp 15 B (25%) |
| Cash | Rp 219 B |
| Net Debt | (Rp 162 B) = NET CASH POSITION |
B. Leverage Ratios:
| Ratio | Nilai | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.06x | Extremely low |
| Total Liab/Assets | 0.07x | Very conservative |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -1.24x | Negative = net cash |
| Current Ratio | 10.39x | Excessive liquidity |
| Interest Coverage | 17.26x | Fortress-like |
| Altman Z-Score | 9.18 | Extremely safe (>3 is safe) |
C. Analysis:
BBRM adalah textbook example of fortress balance sheet:
- Net cash position Rp 162B (no refinancing risk)
- DER 0.06x (virtually no leverage)
- Current ratio 10.39x (far exceeds prudent 1.5-2.0x, suggests excess cash)
- Interest coverage 17.26x (could service 10x more debt comfortably)
D. Liquidity Assessment:
- Cash Rp 219B + OCF Rp 129B = Rp 348B annual liquidity
- Debt service (interest + repayment) likely < Rp 20B annually
- Liquidity cushion extraordinary
Verdict Pilar 3: ✓✓✓ LEVERAGE FORTRESS, SOLVENCY ULTIMATE SAFETY
Among strongest balance sheets di sektor shipping. Net cash position, minimal leverage, excessive liquidity = zero financial distress risk. This is major strength untuk risk-averse investors.
PILAR 4: RETURN ON CAPITALh3
A. Return Metrics (TTM):
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| ROE (TTM) | 15.18% |
| ROA (TTM) | 13.80% |
| ROCE (TTM) | 13.98% |
| ROIC (TTM) | 13.35% |
B. Cost of Capital Estimation:
- Risk-free (SBN 10Y): ~6.85%
- Equity Risk Premium: ~5.5%
- Beta shipping: ~1.0
→ Cost of Equity ≈ 6.85% + (1.0 × 5.5%) ≈ 12.35%
C. Value Creation Analysis:
| Return | vs Cost | Gap | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE 15.18% | vs CoE 12.35% | +2.83% | ✓ VALUE CREATING |
| ROIC 13.35% | vs WACC ~11% | +2.35% | ✓ VALUE CREATING |
D. Quality of Returns:
- ROE 15% is solid for shipping, above cost of equity
- Returns consistent with reported profitability
- HOWEVER: If normalized earnings are 30-40% lower (per Pilar 1 caveat), actual returns closer to 9-10% (below CoE)
⚠️ Key Risk: Reported returns assume TTM earnings Rp 107B are sustainable. If normalized earnings are Rp 70-80B, returns drop to ~10%, below cost of equity.
Verdict Pilar 4: 🟡 RETURN ON CAPITAL ADEQUATE BUT UNCERTAIN
TTM returns look attractive (15%+ ROE), but highly dependent on assumption that profitability sustainable at current levels. If profitability normalize lower (likely), returns compress below cost of capital. Upside depends on business execution & maintaining margins.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITYh3
A. Dividend History & Current:
| Tahun | Dividend/Share | Payout Ratio | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | None (TBD) | 0% | Not yet announced |
| 2024 | None | - | No dividend |
| 2023 | None | - | No dividend |
B. Current Position:
- No dividend currently paid
- Payout ratio: 0%
- FCF available: Rp 37B (Rp 4.37 per share)
- NI available: Rp 107B (Rp 12.60 per share TTM)
C. Dividend Potential (Forward):
Given strong cash position and zero current dividend, BBRM could implement dividend policy:
- Conservative (5% payout): Rp 0.63 per share annually (yield ~0.4%)
- Moderate (10% payout): Rp 1.26 per share annually (yield ~0.8%)
- Generous (15% payout): Rp 1.89 per share annually (yield ~1.2%)
Even at generous 15% payout, dividend yield only ~1.2% → dividend is NOT primary return driver. Primary return would come from capital appreciation.
D. Capital Allocation:
With zero dividend and strong cash generation:
- Company likely using cash untuk: debt reduction (already minimal), capex (fleet), acquisitions, or building war chest
- If management wise, reinvestment in capex should drive future earnings growth
Verdict Pilar 5: 🟡 NO DIVIDEND (YET), POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE
Currently no dividend, but 0% payout ratio provides full flexibility. If company choose to pay, dividend sustainable without stress. However, primary value driver is NOT income but capital appreciation from margin sustenance & growth.
Summary of 5 Pillarsh2
| Pilar | Status | Key Metric | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | 🟡 INFLATED | NM 46% TTM but likely unsustainable | 🟡 Trend good but margins inflated |
| 2. Cash Flow | ✓✓ STRONG | OCF Rp 129B, FCF Rp 37B | ✓✓ Strong, sustainable |
| 3. Leverage | ✓✓✓ FORTRESS | DER 0.06, Net Cash Rp 162B | ✓✓✓ Ultimate safety |
| 4. Return on Capital | 🟡 CONDITIONAL | ROE 15%, but depends on NI sustainability | 🟡 Attractive if earnings hold |
| 5. Dividend | 🟡 POTENTIAL | Payout 0%, room for future | 🟡 Not near-term focus |
TAHAP 3: VALUATION ASSESSMENTh2
A. Current Valuation Multiplesh3
| Multiple | BBRM | Shipping Sector | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 12.38x | 8-12x | ⚠️ AT HIGH END |
| P/B | 1.88x | 0.6-0.9x | 🔴 PREMIUM |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.00x | 6-8x | 🔴 EXPENSIVE |
| P/S | 5.70x | 0.8-1.5x | 🔴 VERY EXPENSIVE |
| Earnings Yield | 8.08% | 8-10% | ✓ Adequate |
Interpretation:
BBRM valuation is MIXED:
- P/E 12.38x is at high end of sector (though sector average 8-12x)
- P/B 1.88x premium ke peers (usually shipping trade 0.6-1.0x)
- EV/EBITDA 9x expensive vs peers 6-8x
- But earnings yield 8.08% adequate vs risk-free 6.85%
⚠️ Key Issue: Valuation multiples premium to sector, but justified ONLY if:
- TTM profitability is sustainable (unlikely)
- Company can grow earnings from here (possible but uncertain)
- Market rewards “reformed” balance sheet with premium (possible)
B. Fair Value Estimationh3
1. P/E Based (Using Normalized Earnings)
Assume normalized annual NI: Rp 70-80B (vs TTM 107B)
Normalized EPS: Rp 8.25-9.43 (vs TTM 12.60)
Fair P/E for recovering shipping company: 10-12x
| Skenario | EPS Est | P/E | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Rp 8.25 | 10x | Rp 82.50 |
| Base Case | Rp 8.85 | 11x | Rp 97.35 |
| Optimistic | Rp 9.43 | 12x | Rp 113.16 |
Pada harga Rp 157:
- vs Conservative: OVERVALUED -47%
- vs Base: OVERVALUED -38%
- vs Optimistic: OVERVALUED -28%
2. P/B Based
- Book Value per Share: Rp 83.04
- Fair P/B untuk shipping: 0.7-0.9x
| Skenario | P/B | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7x | Rp 58.13 |
| Base Case | 0.8x | Rp 66.43 |
| Optimistic | 0.9x | Rp 74.74 |
Pada harga Rp 157: OVERVALUED -52 to -65%
⚠️ MAJOR CONCERN: Both P/E and P/B approaches suggest BBRM is overvalued by 30-65% relative to normalized earnings and peer multiples.
3. DCF (Simplified)
Assume:
- Normalized FCF: Rp 40-50B annually
- Growth rate: 3-5% (modest for mature shipping)
- Discount rate: 12.35% (CoE)
Fair Value ≈ Rp 150-200 range (depending on assumptions)
Current price Rp 157 at lower end of DCF range
C. Fair Value Consensush3
Reconciling all approaches:
- Conservative Fair Value: Rp 70-90 (P/E approach)
- Base Case Fair Value: Rp 95-130 (balance of methods)
- Optimistic Fair Value: Rp 140-180 (if TTM margins sustained)
Current price Rp 157 lands in optimistic scenario, suggesting:
- Fairly valued IF TTM earnings sustainable
- Overvalued by 20-30% IF earnings normalize lower
TAHAP 4: SCENARIO ANALYSIS - 3 ARAHh2
Bull Case (Probability ~25%)h3
Triggers:
- Shipping cycle stronger than expected; freight rates elevated
- BBRM sustains 40%+ net margins through favorable contracts
- Revenue grows 5-8% CAGR
- Fleet expansion (capex investment) drives higher capacity
- Market re-rates valuation to 13-14x P/E
Projections:
- 2027 EPS: Rp 14-15 (vs current 12.60)
- Dividend initiated: Rp 0.80-1.0 per share
- Fair P/E: 13.5x
- Price Target: Rp 189-202
- Total Return: +20-28% over 2 years
Base Case (Probability ~50%)h3
Triggers:
- Shipping cycle normalizes; margins compress to 15-20% net
- Revenue growth modest 2-4% CAGR
- Earnings stabilize around Rp 45-50B annually
- P/E multiple stays 11-12x
- Small dividend initiated (5-7% payout)
Projections:
- 2027 EPS: Rp 9-10 (normalized lower)
- Dividend: Rp 0.50-0.70 per share
- Fair P/E: 11.5x
- Price Target: Rp 104-115
- Total Return: -27 to -35% (downside) over 2 years
Bear Case (Probability ~25%)h3
Triggers:
- Shipping cycle weakens; oversupply of vessels
- Margins compress to 5-8% net
- Revenue contracts or stagnates
- Earnings decline to Rp 20-25B annually
- Valuation compresses to 8-9x P/E (distress)
Projections:
- 2027 EPS: Rp 2.50-3.00 (severe decline)
- No dividend (capital preservation)
- Fair P/E: 8.5x
- Price Target: Rp 21-25
- Total Return: -85% (severe downside) - unlikely but possible in shipping crisis
Probability-Weighted Expected Valueh3
| Scenario | Prob | Price Target | Return | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | 25% | Rp 195 | +24% | +6% |
| BASE | 50% | Rp 110 | -30% | -15% |
| BEAR | 25% | Rp 23 | -85% | -21% |
| EXPECTED | 100% | ~Rp 108 | ~-30% | -30% |
⚠️ NEGATIVE EXPECTED RETURN of -30%
This reflects:
- Current price Rp 157 prices in optimistic scenario (TTM earnings sustainable)
- Base case (more likely) implies 30% downside
- Risk/reward asymmetric to downside
TAHAP 5: COMPETITIVE POSITIONINGh2
BBRM dalam sektor Pelayaran Indonesia:
| Aspek | BBRM | Sector Leaders | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability | 46% NM (TTM, inflated) | 5-15% NM | Appears superior but likely overstated |
| Balance Sheet | 0.06x DER, net cash | 0.3-0.8x DER | ✓ MUCH STRONGER |
| Valuation | 12.38x P/E | 8-10x P/E | PREMIUM |
| Growth | +6.5% revenue | 2-5% revenue | Modest |
| ROE | 15.18% | 8-12% | ✓ Above peers |
BBRM appears as quality player with strong balance sheet, but valuation premium to peers not justified by growth or relative competitive advantage. Peers may have:
- More diversified revenue streams
- Better economies of scale
- More predictable earnings
TAHAP 6: MACRO & SECTOR CONTEXTh2
Shipping Sector Context (2025):
- Global shipping rates still elevated post-pandemic but moderating
- Indonesia domestic shipping benefiting from inter-island trade
- Vessel supply/demand balanced but potential for oversupply
- Interest rates declining (favorable for capex financing)
BBRM Positioning:
- Domestic (Indonesia) focused → less exposed to global trade cycles
- Small cap, niche player → less visibility/analyst coverage
- Balance sheet fortress → can capitalize on opportunities or weather downturns
Macro Risks:
- ⚠️ If global recession → shipping demand drops
- ⚠️ Interest rate hikes → higher financing costs for capex
- ✓ If trade recovers → shipping rates/demand benefits
CRITICAL ASSESSMENT & RED FLAGSh2
Major Concerns:
-
Q2 2025 Earnings Spike (Rp 64B): Drives majority of TTM results. If non-recurring, base earnings much lower.
-
Unsustainable Margins: TTM 46% net margin is extreme; likely not repeatable. Normalized expectations 15-20% net.
-
Valuation Premium: P/E 12.38x and P/B 1.88x trade above peers despite similar risk profile. No growth catalyst visible.
-
Negative Expected Return: Base case scenario (50% probability) implies -30% downside. Risk/reward asymmetric to downside.
-
Earnings Quality Question: While FCF positive and cash conversion good, absolute profitability levels questionable.
Mitigating Factors:
- Fortress balance sheet (net cash, zero leverage) = downside protection
- FCF positive despite high capex = sustainable free cash
- If management can sustain 20% net margins (feasible), ROE remains attractive
FINAL RECOMMENDATIONh2
Rating: 🟡 HOLD / CAUTIOUS (Attractive Upside Potential if Earnings Sustain, But Overvalued at Current Price)h3
Thesish3
BBRM presents a paradox:
Positives:
- Fortress balance sheet (net cash position, zero leverage)
- Strong cash flow generation (OCF Rp 129B, FCF Rp 37B)
- ROE 15%, solid returns on capital
- Recovery theme (margins expanding, profit growth >revenue growth)
Negatives:
- Valuation premium (P/E 12.38x, P/B 1.88x above peers)
- Earnings sustainability questionable (TTM inflated by Q2 spike)
- Normalized earnings likely 30-40% lower (implying -30% downside in base case)
- Negative expected return (-30% probability-weighted)
- No near-term dividend catalyst
Investment Appropriatenessh3
AVOID for:
- Value investors (premium valuation)
- Income investors (no dividend)
- Growth investors (modest 6% revenue growth)
CONSIDER for:
- Turnaround specialists (recovery play, fortress balance sheet)
- Contrarian value (if you believe Q2 earnings sustainable + market misprice)
- Long-term compounders (fortress balance sheet provides safety)
Price Targetsh3
| Timeframe | Target | Return | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-Month | Rp 110-130 | -17 to -20% | 40% (base case traction) |
| 12-Month | Rp 95-125 | -25 to -40% | 50% (earnings normalization) |
| Bull Case (2027) | Rp 195 | +24% | 25% (TTM sustained) |
| Base Case (2027) | Rp 110 | -30% | 50% (earnings decline) |
| Bear Case (2027) | Rp 23 | -85% | 25% (shipping collapse) |
Action Itemsh3
For Non-Holders:
- Do NOT chase at Rp 157 - valuation stretched
- WAIT for weakness to Rp 120-130 to establish position (20-25% correction)
- Only on evidence that Q2 earnings are sustainable OR new catalysts emerge
- Max position: 3-5% of portfolio (company-specific risk)
For Holders:
- REDUCE / TRIM if position >5% of portfolio
- Trailing Stop at Rp 130 (meaningful support; breaking suggests base case)
- EXIT fully if:
- Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 earnings miss market expectations
- Shipping indicators deteriorate
- Price breaks below Rp 100 (bear case emerging)
Monitor:
- Q4 2025 earnings (due Feb 2026) - critical to validate sustainability
- Shipping rates & indices - indicators of sector health
- Capex progress - confirm investment generating future returns
- Competitor actions - M&A, capacity changes
Investment Quality Scorecardh3
| Dimension | Score (1-5) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 2 | Premium to peers; overvalued at Rp 157 |
| Earnings Quality | 3 | Good cash conversion, but TTM inflated |
| Profitability | 2 | Exceptional on paper, unsustainable margins |
| Financial Health | 5 | Fortress balance sheet, strongest aspect |
| Cash Generation | 4 | Strong OCF & FCF |
| Growth Prospects | 2 | Modest 6% revenue, depends on capex delivery |
| Management Quality | 3 | Unknown, but balance sheet strength positive signal |
| Dividend Safety | 0 | No dividend |
| OVERALL SCORE | 2.4 / 5.0 | BELOW AVERAGE - OVERVALUED |
- But valuation: BBRM expensive, while others cheaper
Conclusion: BBRM has fortress fundamentals but overvalued at Rp 157. Suitable as accumulation candidate below Rp 120, not at current levels.
DISCLAIMERh2
Analisis ini untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan investment advice. Saham BBRM adalah smallcap dengan:
- Terbatas analyst coverage
- Potentially inflated TTM earnings
- Uncertain normalized profit power
- Sector-specific cyclical risks
Investor harus:
- Riset fundamental mendalam sebelum entry
- Berkonsultasi licensed financial advisor
- Understand shipping sector cycles
- Accept tidak dijamin returns
Risk disclosure: Shipping adalah cyclical sector; returns highly dependent pada freight rates, global trade, capex execution. BBRM specific risks include Q2 earnings sustainability, valuation premium, and execution on fleet expansion.
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