Analisis Saham Kuantitatif & Fundamental - SEAFOOD/TRADING DISTRESSEDh2

Tanggal Analisis: 17 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 190 per lembar (per screenshot)
Sektor: Konsumen (Seafood Processing & Trading)
Market Cap: Rp 793 Miliar (per screenshot, ~4.17B shares)
Saham Beredar: 4,17 Miliar

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🔴 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & RATING - AVOID (DISTRESSED SEAFOOD TRADER)h2

Rating: 🔴 AVOID / EXTREME CAUTION (Deeply Unprofitable, Negative Earnings, High Leverage)

⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: DPUM adalah severely distressed seafood processing & trading company dengan persistent unprofitability, extreme leverage, deteriorating fundamentals, and highly uncertain recovery path.

Core Problem (9M 2025 vs Full Year 2024):

• TTM Revenue: Rp 1,194B (but highly volatile: 2024 Rp 1,194B, 2023 estimates lower)
• TTM Gross Profit: Rp 53B (only 4.4% margin - razor thin for food business)
• TTM EBITDA: Rp 42B (only 3.5% margin - insufficient)
• TTM Net Income: -Rp 37B (DEEP LOSS) 🔴 FY 2024 showed loss
• Negative Net Margin: -3.1% (losing 3+ sen per rupiah revenue)

Quarterly 2025 Performance (Deterioration):

• Q1 2025: NI -Rp 75M (loss)
• Q2 2025: NI +Rp 7M (breakeven, not sustainable)
• Q3 2025: NI -Rp 52M (loss)
• 9M 2025 Total: Essentially breakeven but still heavily burdened by debt

Critical Findings from Research (2024-2025):

1. FY 2024 net loss: -Rp 37.1B (improved from 2023 -Rp 142.3B, but still deeply negative)
2. Extreme leverage: DER 2.03x (vs safe < 0.5x), Total Liab/Equity 2.02x
3. Debt/EBITDA 35.92x (vs safe < 2x) - CANNOT service debt from operations
4. Negative interest coverage -4.67% (cannot pay interest from operations)
5. Negative ROE & ROA: -9.40% and -3.11% (destroying shareholder value)
6. Negative FCF per share: -Rp 8.88 (burning cash despite operations)
7. Operating margin nearly zero: 0.52% (Q3 2025) or negative (-0.02% per screenshot)
8. P/E meaningless (negative earnings = -21.40x)
9. Stock heavily overbought technically (RSI 84.2, overbought condition) - suggests correction coming

Business Context (From Research):

• Seafood processing & trading (fish, shrimp, squid products)
• Headquartered in Pati, Indonesia (fishing region)
• Subsidiary of PT Pandawa Putra Investama
• 972+ employees (per 2025 data)
• Limited market presence vs larger seafood exporters

Verdict: DPUM adalah zombie company in seafood sector - technically operational but economically broken. Extreme leverage (DER 2.03x), negative earnings (-Rp 37B), razor-thin margins (0.4%), and minimal profitability make this unsuitable for all investors except extreme distressed specialists.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & CRITICAL ASSESSMENTh2

A. Ekstraksi Data dari Screenshot (Per 17 Desember 2025)h3

Income Statement (TTM, 9M 2025 + Q4 2024 implied):

Metrik	TTM (Rp B)	9M 2025	Q3 2025	FY 2024
Revenue	1,194	712	299	1,194
Gross Profit	53	31	7.5	49
EBITDA	42	27	1.5	39
Net Income	(37)	(20)	(15)	(37)

Analysis Note: TTM revenue same as FY 2024 suggests revenue stagnation or decline. 9M 2025 revenues Rp 712B imply Q4 2024 was Rp 482B - suggests Q3 2025 weak quarter.

Quarterly NI (2025):

Quarter	NI (Rp M)	Per Share
Q1 2025	(75)	(0.018)
Q2 2025	7	+0.002
Q3 2025	(52)	(0.012)
9M 2025 Total	(120)	(0.029)

🔴 CRITICAL: All quarters either loss or near-breakeven. Zero profitability. Q2 marginal profit cannot sustain.

Key Per Share Metrics:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	-8.88 🔴 (LOSS)
EPS (Annualised)	0.01 (from minimal Q2 profit, not sustainable)
Revenue per Share (TTM)	286.05
Cash per Share (Quarter)	7.18
Book Value per Share	94.42
Free Cash Flow per Share (TTM)	-8.88 🔴 (NEGATIVE)

Balance Sheet (Current Quarter):

Item	Nilai (Rp B)
Cash	30
Total Assets	1,192
Total Liabilities	797
Total Equity	394
Long-term Debt	579
Short-term Debt	30
Total Debt	609
Net Debt	579
Working Capital	287

Cash Flow Statement (TTM):

Komponen	Nilai (Rp B)
Cash From Operations (OCF)	23
Capital Expenditure (Capex)	(2)
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	20
Cash From Investing	(2)
Cash From Financing	(3)

⚠️ FCF Positive but Minimal: Only Rp 20B annually insufficient to service Rp 609B debt. Highly unsustainable leverage.

Valuation Multiples:

Multiple	Nilai	Interpretation
P/E TTM	-21.40x 🔴	Negative; meaningless
P/B	2.01x	Trading near book value (no margin of safety)
P/S (TTM)	0.66x	Cheap on sales but unprofitable
EV/EBIT (TTM)	66.54x 🔴	Negative earnings = N/A
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	33.00x	VERY EXPENSIVE for Rp 42B EBITDA
Earnings Yield (TTM)	-4.67% 🔴	Value destruction

Profitability (Q3 2025):

Margin	Nilai
Gross Profit Margin	2.50% 🔴
Operating Profit Margin	0.52% 🔴
Net Profit Margin	-0.02% 🔴

🚨 CRITICAL: Margins essentially zero or negative. Company not generating enough gross profit to cover operating expenses.

YoY Growth (Q3 2025):

Metrik	Growth
Revenue	-11.89% 🔴
Gross Profit	-2.76% 🔴
Net Income	-101.95% 🔴

🔴 All metrics negative: Revenue declining, profit declining. No growth trajectory visible.

Solvency & Leverage (EXTREME CONCERN):

Metrik	Nilai	Assessment
Current Ratio	2.63x	Appears healthy but misleading
Quick Ratio	1.86x	Decent surface appearance
DER	1.54x	🔴 HIGH
Total Liab/Equity	2.02x	🔴 VERY HIGH
Total Debt/Assets	0.51x	Moderate but coupled with losses = danger
Interest Coverage	2.58x	🟡 Adequate on paper but…
Altman Z-Score	0.17	🔴 🔴 BANKRUPTCY RISK ZONE (< 1.1)

🚨 CRITICAL RED FLAG: Z-Score 0.17 indicates severe bankruptcy risk. Below 1.1 is danger zone, below 1.81 is gray zone. 0.17 is near-certain bankruptcy territory if conditions don’t improve dramatically.

Management Effectiveness:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	-3.11% 🔴
ROE (TTM)	-9.40% 🔴
ROCE (TTM)	1.27% 🔴
ROIC (TTM)	-6.03% 🔴

All returns NEGATIVE = capital destruction.

B. Historical Context (From Research)h3

Net Income Trend:

Year	NI (Rp B)	Margin
2022	Unknown	-
2023	(142.3)	-13%
2024	(37.1)	-3.1%
9M 2025	(20)	-2.8%

Deterioration then Plateau: 2023 catastrophic loss, 2024 improved but still loss. 9M 2025 continuing losses.

Revenue Trend:

Year	Revenue (Rp B)
2023	~1,100 (est)
2024	1,194
9M 2025	712 (on pace for ~950B annualized)

Revenue stagnating/declining, losses persist despite top-line maintenance.

C. Technical Analysis (From Research - Dec 2025)h3

• RSI: 84.2 (overbought, correction likely)
• Price: Rp 141 (Dec 15) trending up from Rp 78 support
• Recommendation from technical analysts: BUY with targets Rp 162-176
• BUT: Fundamental deterioration contradicts technical bullishness

⚠️ Disconnect: Technical strongly bullish (RSI overbought suggests momentum), but fundamentals deeply distressed. Technical traders may be driving irrational price increases.

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TAHAP 2: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGIN TRENDh3

A. Margin Snapshot:

Margin	Q3 2025	9M 2025	2024
Gross Margin	2.50%	4.4%	4.1%
Operating Margin	0.52%	1.1%	-0.5%
Net Margin	-0.02%	-2.8%	-3.1%

B. Trend Analysis:

🔴 Critical: All margins essentially zero or negative

• Gross margin 2.5% is razor-thin for food/trading business (typically 20-30%)
• Operating margin 0.52% cannot cover overhead
• Net margin negative suggests losses after interest

C. Sustainability Assessment:

🔴 NOT SUSTAINABLE for reasons:

1. Gross margin 2.5% insufficient for operating expenses
2. Operating margin 0.52% essentially breakeven before debt/tax
3. Company dependent on one-time gains or asset sales to avoid losses
4. 2024 showed net loss -3.1%, 9M 2025 -2.8% (not improving)

Verdict Pilar 1: 🔴 PROFITABILITAS BROKEN & NON-SUSTAINABLE
Margins essentially zero. Company cannot generate profit from core operations. Losses continue despite stabilization in 2024 vs 2023 peak.

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PILAR 2: CASH FLOW SUSTAINABILITYh3

A. Cash Flow Structure (TTM):

Komponen	Nilai (Rp B)
OCF	23
Capex	(2)
FCF	20

B. Assessment:

⚠️ Barely positive OCF: Rp 23B is minimal for company with Rp 1,194B revenue

🔴 BUT: With Rp 609B debt, interest expense likely Rp 15-20B annually

• Meaning OCF barely covers interest, zero for principal repayment

C. Debt Serviceability:

• Debt service needs: ~Rp 40-50B annually (interest + principal)
• OCF available: only Rp 23B
• Shortfall: -Rp 17-27B annually

Company cannot service debt from operations. Dependent on:

• Refinancing (rolling debt)
• Asset sales
• Equity capital injection from parent PT Pandawa

D. Working Capital:

✓ Working capital positive Rp 287B (appears healthy) ✓ DSO 91.31 days (slow collections) ✓ DIO 44.47 days (moderate inventory) ✓ DPO 3.28 days (very short payment terms - pressure from suppliers)

⚠️ CCC 132.50 days (tied-up working capital) suggests cash flow stress.

Verdict Pilar 2: 🔴 CASH FLOW INADEQUATE FOR DEBT SERVICE
Positive OCF but minimal. Cannot service debt sustainably. Dependent on external support or refinancing.

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PILAR 3: LEVERAGE & SOLVENCYh3

A. Debt Structure:

Metrik	Nilai (Rp B)
Total Debt	609
LT Debt	579
ST Debt	30
Cash	30
Net Debt	579

B. Leverage Ratios:

Ratio	Nilai	Assessment
DER	1.54x	🔴 ELEVATED
Total Liab/Equity	2.02x	🔴 HIGH
Debt/EBITDA	35.92x	🔴 EXTREME (safe 2x)
Interest Coverage	2.58x	🟡 Adequate but…
Current Ratio	2.63x	Appears healthy
Altman Z-Score	0.17	🔴 🔴 BANKRUPTCY RISK

C. Critical Assessment:

🔴 SEVERE SOLVENCY CRISIS:

1. Z-Score 0.17 = near-certain bankruptcy indicator (safe >3, gray >1.8, danger < 1.1)
2. Debt/EBITDA 35.92x = company worth less than a year of debt if liquidated
3. DER 1.54x with negative earnings = leverage too high for non-profitable company
4. Negative net income = equity eroding annually
5. Current ratio 2.63x appears healthy but misleading - assumes asset liquidation value equals book value (unlikely in bankruptcy)

D. Debt Sustainability:

• Annual debt service Rp 40-50B needed
• OCF only Rp 23B available
• Shortfall forces either:
  • Continuous refinancing (refinancing risk)
  • Asset sales (depleting balance sheet)
  • Equity injections (parent support = uncertain)
  • Eventual default/restructuring

Verdict Pilar 3: 🔴 LEVERAGE EXTREME & SOLVENCY CRITICAL RISK
Z-Score 0.17 indicates bankruptcy probability high. Company only solvent if parent PT Pandawa continues support indefinitely.

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PILAR 4: RETURN ON CAPITALh3

A. Return Metrics (TTM):

Metrik	Nilai
ROE	-9.40% 🔴
ROA	-3.11% 🔴
ROCE	1.27% 🔴
ROIC	-6.03% 🔴

B. Value Creation:

ALL NEGATIVE = Destroying shareholder value rapidly

ROE -9.40% means shareholders losing 9.4% of equity annually. At this rate, equity wipes out in 10-11 years even without further losses.

Verdict Pilar 4: 🔴 RETURN ON CAPITAL SEVERELY NEGATIVE
Massive value destruction. Capital employed generating negative returns.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITYh3

A. Dividend Status:

Item	Status
Current Dividend	NONE
Historical	Never paid dividend while listed
Payout Ratio	N/A (not applicable with losses)
Likelihood Future	ZERO

B. Assessment:

Company loss-making - dividend impossible. All focus must be on debt service and survival.

Verdict Pilar 5: 🔴 NO DIVIDEND POSSIBLE
Focus is on survival, not distribution.

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Summary of 5 Pillars - DISTRESSED SEAFOOD COh2

Pilar	Status	Assessment
1. Profitabilitas	🔴 BROKEN	Margins zero, losses persist
2. Cash Flow	🔴 INADEQUATE	OCF positive but insufficient for debt service
3. Leverage	🔴 CRITICAL	Z-Score 0.17 bankruptcy risk, DER 1.54x excessive
4. Return on Capital	🔴 DESTROYED	All returns negative, -9.40% ROE
5. Dividend	🔴 IMPOSSIBLE	No profitability

Overall Score: 0.8/5 = SEVERELY DISTRESSED

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TAHAP 3: DISTRESSED VALUATIONh2

A. Traditional Multiples (MEANINGLESS)h3

With negative earnings and Z-Score 0.17:

• P/E -21.4x = nonsensical
• ROE -9.4% = value destruction

B. Liquidation / Bankruptcy Valuationh3

Book Value Approach:

• Equity: Rp 394B
• Book Value per Share: Rp 94.42
• Current Price: Rp 190 (101% premium to book!)

⚠️ Stock trading at DOUBLE book value despite bankruptcy risk = market pricing error

In bankruptcy liquidation scenario:

• Assets Rp 1,192B worth 40-60% in forced sale = Rp 477-715B
• Less debt Rp 609B = Rp -132 to +106B residual
• Per share: Rp 0-25 potential (likely closer to ZERO)

Current Rp 190 = SEVERELY OVERVALUED in bankruptcy scenario

C. Fair Value Estimateh3

Scenario	Probability	Price Target
Restructuring/Recovery	10%	Rp 100-150
Muddle Through (Parent Support)	30%	Rp 50-100
Forced Restructuring	40%	Rp 10-50
Bankruptcy	20%	Rp 0-10
Expected Value	100%	~Rp 40-60

Current price Rp 190 = 3.2-4.8x OVERVALUED vs expected value

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TAHAP 4: SCENARIO ANALYSISh2

Bull Case (Probability 10%)h3

Triggers:

• Parent PT Pandawa Putra provides capital injection
• New profitable contracts secured
• Operational turnaround (margins to 10%+)
• Leverage normalized

Projections (2027-2028):

• Revenue: Rp 2,000B+
• Net Margin: +5-8%
• NI: Rp 100-160B
• Price Target: Rp 150-200
• Return: -21 to +5% (limited upside)

Base Case (Probability 30%)h3

Triggers:

• Parent continues basic support
• Company muddles through
• Margins improve modestly to 2-3%
• Debt management through refinancing

Projections (2027-2028):

• Revenue: Rp 1,200-1,400B
• Net Margin: 0-1%
• NI: Rp 0-14B (breakeven region)
• Price Target: Rp 70-100
• Return: -47 to -63% downside

Bear Case (Probability 40%)h3

Triggers:

• Conditions deteriorate
• Parent withdraws support
• Forced restructuring announced
• Debt covenant breached

Projections (2027-2028):

• Revenue: Rp 800-1,000B
• Net Margin: -3 to -5%
• NI: -Rp 24-50B (losses resume)
• Restructuring announced
• Price Target: Rp 20-50
• Return: -74 to -89% severe downside

Bankruptcy Case (Probability 20%)h3

Triggers:

• Refinancing fails
• Parent abandons
• Forced liquidation

Price Target: Rp 0-10 (-100 to -95% loss)

Probability-Weighted Expected Valueh3

Scenario	Prob	Return	Weighted
Bull	10%	0%	0%
Base	30%	-55%	-16.5%
Bear	40%	-82%	-32.8%
Bankruptcy	20%	-97%	-19.4%
EXPECTED	100%	~-67%	-68.7%

🔴 EXPECTED RETURN -69% (CATASTROPHIC DOWNSIDE)

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CRITICAL CONSIDERATIONSh2

Why DPUM is Extremely High Risk:

1. Z-Score 0.17 = bankruptcy risk real and immediate
2. DER 1.54x with negative earnings = leverage unsustainable
3. Debt/EBITDA 35.92x = company worth < 1 year of debt
4. Margins zero = no profitability buffer
5. OCF insufficient for debt service
6. Stock trading at 2x book value (101% premium) = pricing error
7. Parent company support = only thing keeping alive (discretionary)

Current Technical Strength Misleading:

• RSI 84.2 overbought suggests correction
• Price run-up from Rp 78 to Rp 190 = speculative bubble
• Disconnect between strong technical and deteriorating fundamentals

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FINAL RECOMMENDATIONh2

Rating: 🔴 AVOID COMPLETELYh3

Investment Decision:

For 99.99% of investors: DO NOT BUY

DPUM is suitable ONLY for:

• Extreme distressed debt investors
• Bankruptcy specialists
• Actors with 0% loss tolerance

Reasons to AVOID:

1. Z-Score 0.17 = bankruptcy risk territory
2. Extreme leverage (DER 1.54x, Debt/EBITDA 36x)
3. Negative profitability (losses persist)
4. Inadequate cash flow for debt service
5. Dependent on uncertain parent support
6. Stock trading at DOUBLE book value (massive overvaluation)
7. Expected return -69% (probability-weighted)
8. Technical overbought (RSI 84.2) = correction likely

Price Guidanceh3

Price	Action
Rp 190 (current)	🔴 SELL - Overvalued, bankruptcy risk
Rp 100-150	🔴 AVOID - Still risky despite discount
Rp 50-100	⚠️ SPECULATIVE (distressed only)
Rp 10-50	🔴 BANKRUPTCY IMMINENT
Below Rp 10	🔴 LIQUIDATION VALUE

If You Own DPUM:h3

1. 🔴 SELL immediately at market price
2. ⚠️ Do NOT hold expecting recovery
3. ❌ Do NOT average down
4. Monitor for bankruptcy announcements

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DISCLAIMERh2

DPUM is NOT a normal investment - it is severely distressed:

• Bankruptcy risk (Z-Score 0.17)
• Unsustainable leverage
• Negative profitability
• Inadequate cash flow
• Dependent on parent support
• Overvalued at current price

Investor assumes FULL responsibility for capital loss (expected -69%).

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CONCLUSIONh2

DPUM represents failed seafood trading business with extreme solvency risk and significant overvaluation at current Rp 190 price.

With Z-Score 0.17, DER 1.54x, negative earnings, and expected return -69% probability-weighted, DPUM should be avoided completely by all normal investors.

The stock’s recent rally (Rp 78 → Rp 190 since December) appears driven by technical momentum and retail speculation, NOT fundamental improvements.

Recommendation: AVOID entirely. Do NOT chase the technical rally. Risk of 50-95% loss remains high.

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