Analisis Saham PT Ulima Nitra Tbk (UNIQ) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)

Tanggal Analisis: 30 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 376 per lembar
Ticker: UNIQ (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Ulima Nitra Tbk
Sektor: Jasa Pertambangan & Energi - LCT Rental, Konstruksi, Jasa Sumur Minyak/Gas, Kontraktor Pertambangan
Nilai Pasar: Rp 1.174 Triliun
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 3,14 Miliar lembar
Didirikan: 1992 (Palembang) | IPO 1995 | 30+ tahun track record

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - HOLD (QUALITY CYCLICAL, COMMODITY HEADWIND, MARGIN PRESSURE, DIVIDEN STABLE 1%)h2

Rating: 🟡 HOLD (Perusahaan jasa pertambangan berkualitas dengan fundamental solid (ROA 7,13%, ROE 11,14%, D/E 0,6x, dividen 1%) tapi menghadapi cyclical headwind dari komoditas lemah (batubara & minyak under pressure), H1 2025 profit down 19% YoY dari cost inflation, valuation moderate P/E 21,68x - suitable untuk patient income investors, tidak untuk growth seekers)

UNIQ adalah jasa pertambangan & energy services provider yang menyediakan LCT rental, konstruksi, well services untuk klien besar (Bukit Asam, ConocoPhillips, Pertamina, Medco). Fundamental solid: TTM revenue Rp 601M, profit Rp 54M (9% margin healthy), OCF Rp 132M positive, FCF Rp 115M excellent. Dividen konsisten Rp 3.98 per saham (1,07% yield). D/E 0,6x moderate, interest coverage 4,5x solid, Altman 5,5 excellent. TAPI menghadapi headwind: H1 2025 profit -18,93% YoY (dari Rp 21,75M 2024 → Rp 17,73M 2025) karena kenaikan beban pokok penjualan & beban usaha (cost inflation). Revenue juga -32,97% TTM (unusual; Q3 2025 down YoY from Rp 241M 2024 to Rp 165M 2025). Valuation moderate: P/E 21,68x, P/B 2,41x. Momentum YTD -14% weak. Rating HOLD untuk risk-aware investor - quality stock tapi cyclical headwind jelas, dividen 1% modest attraction. Recommendation: HOLD current position, ACCUMULATE only on major dips (Rp 300-330).

Status Kini (Data H1 2025, Q3 2025, TTM):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM	Rp 601 Miliar	Down -32,97% TTM (!unusual)
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 110 Miliar	Gross margin 18,3%
EBITDA TTM	Rp 195 Miliar	EBITDA margin 32,4%
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 54 Miliar	9% margin healthy
H1 2025 Profit	Rp 17,73M	Down 18,93% YoY ❌
Q3 2025 Profit	Rp 24M (est)	Down YoY from Rp 33M Q3 2024 ❌
OCF TTM	Rp 132 Miliar	POSITIVE ✓
FCF TTM	Rp 115 Miliar	STRONG ✓
D/E Ratio	0,60x	Moderate ✓
Interest Coverage	4,50x	SOLID ✓
Altman Score	5,50	EXCELLENT ✓
Dividen	Rp 3,98	1,07% yield ✓
P/E (TTM)	21,68x	Fair-to-moderate
Momentum YTD	-14%	Weak

Profil Cyclical & Headwind:

1. ❌ Cyclical exposure kuat - Dependent pada commodity prices (coal, oil, gas) & energy company capex
2. 🟡 Cost inflation pressure - H1 2025 profit down 19% despite stable revenue (margin squeeze)
3. ❌ Revenue declining TTM - Down 32,97% unusual (likely H2 2024 was strong, now normalizing)
4. ✓ Quality fundamental - ROA 7%, ROE 11%, D/E 0,6x, Altman 5,5 all solid
5. ✓ FCF positive & strong - Rp 115M supports current dividen
6. ✓ Dividen stable - Rp 3.98 consistent, payout sustainable from FCF
7. 🟡 Valuation not cheap - P/E 21,68x fair but not discount (justifiable only if growth materializes)
8. ❌ Momentum weak - YTD -14%, stock from Rp 498 (Dec 23) to Rp 376 now (-24% recent)

Kesimpulan Awal: UNIQ adalah QUALITY CYCLICAL COMPANY menghadapi COMMODITY HEADWIND. Fundamental solid tapi tertekan by cost inflation. Rating HOLD - cocok untuk income investor (dividen 1%) tapi tidak untuk growth seeker. Momentum negatif suggest patience needed sebelum accumulate.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATAh2

PERHATIAN - TTM REVENUE UNUSUAL (Down 32,97%!):

Lampiran TTM data menunjukkan revenue declining Q3 2025 YoY (-32,97%), tapi Q1-Q3 revenue aggregate usually growing. This suggests either:

• (a) Q4 2024 was EXCEPTIONALLY strong, making TTM declining (revenue normalization)
• (b) Q3 2025 specific weakness from project gaps

Laporan Keuangan (Available Data):

Period	Revenue	Net Profit	Margin	Notes
Q3 2025	165M	24M (est)	14,5%	Profit margin high, revenue down YoY
Q3 2024	241M	33M	13,7%	Strong quarter
H1 2025	288M	17.73M	6,2%	Profit down 19% YoY despite revenue +3%
H1 2024	280M	21.75M	7,8%	Stronger margin
FY 2024	670M	67.6M	10,1%	Full year solid
TTM	601M	54M	9%	TTM declining, margin compressed

Analysis of TTM Decline:

• Q4 2024 likely Rp 245-250M (strong)
• Q1-Q3 2025 ≈ Rp 356M (weak, down YoY)
• TTM decline suggests Q4 2024 was PEAK, now normalizing

Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 17,25
EPS (Annual)	Rp 17,72
Revenue Per Share	Rp 191,53
Dividen	Rp 3,98
Book Value Per Share	Rp 154,90

✓ EPS positive Rp 17,25 - Sustainable earnings.

✓ P/E 376 ÷ 17,25 = 21,8x - Fair para cyclical stock.

✓ Dividen Rp 3.98 / Rp 376 = 1,06% yield - Modest but stable.

Neraca (Q3 2025):

Item	Rp Miliar
Kas	3
Total Aset	759
Total Liabilitas	273
Total Ekuitas	486
Utang Jangka Panjang	76
Total Utang	291
Net Debt	(288)

🟡 Net Debt Rp (288)M - Some leverage but manageable D/E 0,6x.

✓ Aset light - Asset turnover good untuk service business.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
OCF	132 ✓
Investing	(7)
FCF	115 ✓
Financing	(133)

✓ OCF Rp 132M positive - Solid operational cash.

✓ FCF Rp 115M strong - Supports current dividen (Rp 12.5M annual).

Valuasi (pada Rp 376):

Metrik	Nilai	Assessment
P/E (TTM)	21,68x	🟡 Fair-moderate
P/B	2,41x	🟡 Fair-premium
P/S	1,95x	🟡 Moderate
EV/EBITDA	17,34x	🟡 Fair
Dividend Yield	1,07%	🟡 Modest
Price-to-FCF	8,90x	🟡 Fair

🟡 Valuasi NOT CHEAP - P/E 21.68x only justified if growth returns. If cyclical headwind continues, could compress 15-18x (suggesting -25% downside).

Profitabilitas (Sequential):

Margin	Q3 2025	Q3 2024	Trend
Gross Margin	30,68%	Unknown	High
Operating Margin	26,84%	Unknown	Strong
Net Margin	16,04%	Unknown	Excellent

✓ Q3 margin excellent - 16% net margin is strong.

🟡 But H1 margin weak - 6,2% (cost inflation impact).

Pertumbuhan (YoY):

Metrik	Q3 YoY	H1 YoY
Revenue	-32,97% ❌	+3% (modest)
Net Income	-27,97% ❌	-18,93% ❌

❌ ALL negative YoY - Growth stalled, profit compressed.

Kesehatan Finansial:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Current Ratio	1,57x	✓ Good
Quick Ratio	1,54x	✓ Good
D/E	0,60x	✓ Moderate
Interest Coverage	4,50x	✓ Solid
Altman Score	5,50	✓ Excellent
FCF	115M	✓ Strong

✓ Financial health excellent - All metrics solid.

Returns (TTM):

Metrik	Nilai
ROA	7,13%
ROE	11,14%
ROIC	9,37%

✓ Returns solid - 7-11% range healthy for industrial.

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🟡 EXCELLENT MARGIN BUT DECLINING YoY

✓ TTM margin 9% healthy, Q3 margin 16% excellent.

❌ But H1 margin 6,2% weak - Cost inflation visible.

❌ YoY declining profit - Q3 down 27,97%, H1 down 18,93%.

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG POSITIVE CASH

✓ OCF Rp 132M positive - Solid operational cash.

✓ FCF Rp 115M strong - Self-funding capable.

✓ Dividen sustainable - From FCF fully covered.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: ✓ SOLID, MANAGEABLE LEVERAGE

✓ D/E 0,60x moderate - Safe, room untuk leverage if needed.

✓ Interest coverage 4,5x solid - Safe dari rate shock.

✓ Altman 5,5 excellent - Best solvency.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: ✓ SOLID, STABLE

✓ ROE 11,14%, ROA 7,13% - Healthy for industrial.

✓ ROIC 9,37% - Positive capital deployment.

🟡 But declining under margin pressure - Trend concerning.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: ✓ STABLE DIVIDEN, LOW YIELD

✓ Dividen Rp 3,98 consistent - 1,07% yield.

✓ Sustainable from FCF - No dividend risk.

🟡 But yield modest - Only 1% for cyclical stock.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🟡 Excellent but declining	3.5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Strong positive	4.5/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	✓ Solid	4.5/5
4. Return Investasi	✓ Solid but declining	3.5/5
5. Dividen	✓ Stable, sustainable	3/5
RATA-RATA	✓ GOOD (but declining)	3.8/5

Score 3.8/5 fair - Quality company but cyclical headwind visible, margin pressure concerning.

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation (Base on Cyclical Thesis):

Scenario	Fair Value	Assumption	Margin
Bull Case	Rp 450-500	Commodity recovery, margin to 10-11%	+20-33%
Base Case	Rp 350-400	Margin stabilize 8-9%, dividen 1%	-7-+6%
Bear Case	Rp 250-300	Margin compresses 6%, dividen cut	-33-20%

🟡 Fair value Rp 350-400 = current price near fair - Limited upside at Rp 376.

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Probability	Return	Target	Narrative
Bull	25%	+40%	Rp 526	Commodity recovery, cost control, margin +2%, profit +20%
Base	55%	+2%	Rp 383	Cyclical stabilization, margin 8-9%, flat growth
Bear	20%	-30%	Rp 263	Commodity weakness continues, margin 6%, profit -15%
Expected		+4%	Rp 391	Modest return, low conviction

🟡 Expected return +4% very modest - Not attractive for growth seekers. Suitable only for income seekers (dividen 1%).

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 HOLD (Quality but Cyclical, Headwind Visible, Dividen 1%)h3

🟡 HOLD current position | ACCUMULATE only on dips Rp 300-330

Alasan HOLD (Tidak BUY aggressive):

• ❌ Revenue declining YoY (-32,97% TTM)
• ❌ Profit YoY declining (-27,97% Q3, -18,93% H1)
• ❌ Margin pressure visible (H1 6,2% down from H1 2024 7,8%)
• ❌ Cyclical headwind from coal & oil weakness
• ❌ Valuation fair not cheap (P/E 21,68x, P/B 2,41x)
• ❌ YTD momentum -14% weak
• 🟡 Dividen only 1,07% modest untuk cyclical stock

TAPI reasons to HOLD (Tidak SELL):

• ✓ Fundamental quality solid (ROA 7%, ROE 11%, Altman 5,5)
• ✓ FCF positive & strong (Rp 115M supports dividen)
• ✓ D/E 0,6x manageable, no solvency risk
• ✓ Long-term track record 30 years
• ✓ Large contract base (Bukit Asam, ConocoPhillips, Pertamina)

Entry/Exit Strategy:

Level	Action	Rationale
Rp 376	HOLD current	Fair value, wait for clarity
Rp 300-330	ACCUMULATE	Major dip, accumulation opportunity
>Rp 450	REDUCE 50%	Profit taking, valuation stretched

Hold Period: 2-3 years (cyclical cycle time)

Key Catalysts to Monitor:

Event	Impact
Coal price recovery	Positive (Bukit Asam client improvement)
Oil price strength	Positive (ConocoPhillips capex increase)
H2 2025 results	CRITICAL - profit inflection test
Medco Energi contract	Positive (Rp 93M new revenue visible)
Margin stabilization	Positive if cost control works

Red Flags / Stop-Loss:

• 🔴 Dividen cut (financial stress signal)
• 🔴 D/E >1,0x (leverage increasing)
• 🔴 Profit < Rp 40M TTM (deterioration)
• 🔴 FCF negative (cash crisis)
• Stop-Loss: Rp 250 (fundamental distress)

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KESIMPULANh2

UNIQ adalah 🟡 HOLD - QUALITY CYCLICAL dengan COMMODITY HEADWIND.

Fundamental excellent:

• ✓ ROA 7%, ROE 11%, ROIC 9% solid
• ✓ FCF Rp 115M positive
• ✓ D/E 0,6x, Altman 5,5 safe

Tapi cyclical headwind clear:

• ❌ Revenue declining -32,97% TTM
• ❌ Profit down -27,97% Q3 YoY
• ❌ Cost inflation margin squeeze
• ❌ Commodity prices weak

Valuation fair, not cheap:

• 🟡 P/E 21,68x justifiable only if growth resumes
• 🟡 Dividen 1,07% modest untuk cyclical
• 🟡 Limited upside at Rp 376

Best for: Income investor (1% dividen), cyclical bottom-fisher (wait for Rp 300-330 dips)

NOT for: Growth seeker (declining earnings), yield hunter (1% low)

Recommendation: HOLD current, WAIT for better entry atau H2 2025 earnings clarity before accumulating. Monitor commodity prices closely (coal, oil recovery = upside catalyst).

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Analisis dibuat 30 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, H1 2025 results, TTM metrics, dan commodity market headwind assessment.