Analisis Saham PT Chitose Internasional Tbk (CINT) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)
Analisis mendalam saham CINT per Q3 2025: Profit inflection spektakuler (+208% 2024), dividen agresif (Rp 10 = 4,1% yield), valuation cheap (P/E 12,75x), momentum excellent (+34% YTD).
Disclaimer:
Analisis ini adalah opini edukasi, bukan nasihat atau rekomendasi investasi. Kami tidak menerima komisi maupun afiliasi dari emiten yang dibahas. Saham berisiko tinggi—lakukan riset mandiri (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) dan konsultasi dengan penasihat keuangan berlisensi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Hasil masa lalu tidak menjamin kinerja masa depan.
Tanggal Analisis: 30 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 244 per lembar
Ticker: CINT (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Chitose Internasional Tbk
Sektor: Manufaktur - Furnitur Kantor, Pendidikan, Kesehatan (Office Furniture, Educational Chairs, Healthcare Furniture)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 244 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 100 Miliar lembar
Didirikan: 1975 (Cimahi) | IPO 1991 | 50+ tahun track record
Overview: Quality Growth Dividend, Profit Inflection +208%, Valuasi Murah, Momentum Excellenth2
CINT adalah manufacturer furnitur profesional (kantor, pendidikan, kesehatan) dengan profit inflection spektakuler (+208% 2024, target +39% 2025), dividen agresif (Rp 10 = 4,1% yield, doubled dari 2023), valuasi murah (P/E 12,75x), momentum excellent (+34% YTD), arus kas positif, dan fundamental solid.
CINT adalah manufacturer furnitur profesional (kantor, pendidikan, kesehatan) dengan turnaround story menjadi growth story 2024-2025. FY2024 profit leap +208% dari Rp 6M (2023) → Rp 18M (2024), melampaui target. 9M2025 profit Rp 10,23M (+53% YoY) on-track untuk 2025 target Rp 25M (39% growth). Dividen doubled Rp 10 (2024) dari Rp 5 (2023), = 4,1% yield. Revenue stable Rp 461M (2024), target Rp 470M (2025) modest +2% growth (focus on margin expansion). Fundamental excellent: ROA 4%, ROE 6,64%, ROIC 6,7%, OCF Rp 8M positive, FCF Rp 5M, D/E 0,27x very low, Altman 3,62 solid. Margin excellent: Q3 operating margin 9%, net margin 5% (furniture industry leading). Valuation cheap: P/E 12,75x (P/E 15 typical untuk furniture growth), P/B 0,85x discount. Momentum exceptional: +34% YTD, +27% 1W recent rally. Piotroski F-Score 7.0 strong. Estimasi skenario mengarah ke kisaran Rp 350-400 dalam horizon 2 tahun bila asumsi pertumbuhan dan dividen di atas terealisasi.
Status Kini (Data 9M 2025, FY 2024, TTM):
| Item | Nilai | Keterangan |
|---|---|---|
| Pendapatan TTM | Rp 466 Miliar | Stable, target Rp 470M (2025) |
| Laba Kotor TTM | Rp 162 Miliar | 34,8% gross margin excellent |
| EBITDA TTM | Rp 44 Miliar | 9,4% EBITDA margin |
| Laba Bersih TTM | Rp 19 Miliar | 4,1% margin ✓ |
| 9M 2025 Profit | Rp 10,23M | +53% YoY ✓ |
| FY 2024 Profit | Rp 18M | +208% YoY ✓ |
| 2025 Target | Rp 25M | +39% guidance |
| OCF TTM | Rp 8 Miliar | POSITIVE ✓ |
| FCF TTM | Rp 5 Miliar | Positive ✓ |
| D/E Ratio | 0,27x | VERY LOW ✓ |
| Altman Score | 3,62 | SOLID ✓ |
| Dividen 2024 | Rp 10,00 | 4,1% yield ✓ |
| P/E (TTM) | 12,75x | CHEAP ✓ |
| Momentum YTD | +34% | Excellent ✓ |
Profil Growth + Dividend Hybrid:
- ✓ Profit inflection dramatic - +208% (2024), +53% 9M (2025), +39% guidance 2025
- ✓ Dividen aggressive - Rp 10 (2024), doubled from Rp 5 (2023), sustainable 4,1% yield
- ✓ Valuation cheap - P/E 12,75x (vs 15-18x typical furniture growth), P/B 0,85x
- ✓ Fundamental solid - ROA 4%, ROE 6.64%, Altman 3.62, D/E 0.27x
- ✓ Margin excellent - Operating 9%, net 5% (furniture industry leading)
- ✓ Momentum exceptional - +34% YTD, +27% 1W, strong institutional interest
- ✓ Cash positive - OCF Rp 8M, FCF Rp 5M (supports growth capex + dividen)
- ✓ Piotroski F-Score 7.0 - Strong financial health signals
Kesimpulan Awal: CINT adalah saham growth + dividend hybrid berkualitas tinggi dengan clear earnings inflection, cheap valuation, excellent momentum. Profil ini menggabungkan potensi pertumbuhan (profit +39-50% 2025-2026 potential) dan income (dividen 4%+ sustainable), dengan horizon 2-3 tahun.
TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATAh2
Laporan Keuangan (2023-2025):
| Period | Revenue | Net Profit | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M 2025 | 324 M | 10,23 M | 3,2% | +53% ✓ |
| 9M 2024 | 289 M | 6,7 M | 2,3% | Baseline |
| FY 2024 | 461 M | 18 M | 3,9% | +208% ✓ |
| FY 2023 | 457 M | 6 M | 1,3% | Turnaround |
| FY 2022 | Low | (Loss) | Negative | Crisis |
| TTM | 466 M | 19 M | 4,1% | Excellent |
✓ Inflection point clear: 2023 turnaround (Rp 6M profit) → 2024 growth (+208%) → 2025 sustained (+53% 9M).
Per Saham:
| Metrik | Nilai |
|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | Rp 19,13 |
| Dividen (2024) | Rp 10,00 |
| Book Value | Rp 288 |
| P/E at Rp 244 | 12,75x ✓ |
| P/B at Rp 244 | 0,85x ✓ |
| Dividend Yield | 4,1% ✓ |
🟢 Valuation excellent - P/E 12,75x cheap untuk growth story.
Neraca (Q3 2025):
| Item | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| Kas | 18 |
| Total Aset | 468 |
| Liabilitas | 166 |
| Ekuitas | 288 |
| Total Utang | 76 |
| D/E | 0,27x ✓ |
🟢 Balance sheet pristine - Very low leverage, strong equity base.
Arus Kas (TTM):
| Komponen | Rp Miliar |
|---|---|
| OCF | 8 ✓ |
| Investing | (6) |
| FCF | 5 ✓ |
| Financing | (11) |
✓ Positive FCF supports dividen - Rp 5M FCF sustainable untuk Rp 10M dividen payment (1B shares × Rp 10).
Profitabilitas (Trend):
| Margin | Q3 2025 | 9M 2025 | FY 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 9,01% | - | ~3,9% | ↑ Improving |
| Net | 5,91% | 3,2% | 3,9% | Stable |
✓ Q3 margin 5.91% net excellent - Shows pricing power + cost control.
Pertumbuhan:
| Metrik | 9M YoY | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +14,76% ✓ | +2% (2025) |
| Net Income | +53% ✓ | +39% (2025) |
✓ Both metrics positive & strong.
Returns & Solvency:
| Metrik | Nilai | Status |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4,09% | ✓ Solid |
| ROE | 6,64% | ✓ Solid |
| ROIC | 6,70% | ✓ Solid |
| D/E | 0,27x | ✓ Very low |
| Altman | 3,62 | ✓ Good |
| Piotroski | 7.0 | ✓ Strong |
✓ ALL indicators excellent.
TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2
PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3
Status: ✓ EXCELLENT, IMPROVING
✓ Net margin 4,1% TTM - Higher than 2024 (3,9%), improving trend.
✓ Q3 margin 5,91% - Best quarterly margin, shows pricing power.
✓ Profit inflection +208% (2024), +53% 9M (2025) - Clear growth trajectory.
PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3
Status: ✓ POSITIVE, SUPPORTS DIVIDEN
✓ OCF Rp 8M positive - Solid cash generation.
✓ FCF Rp 5M positive - Supports Rp 10M dividen payment (100B shares basis).
✓ No capex burden - Light CapEx model (furnitur business).
PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3
Status: ✓ PRISTINE, BEST-IN-CLASS
✓ D/E 0,27x extremely low - One of lowest ratios.
✓ Altman 3,62 solid - No financial distress risk.
✓ Current ratio 1,58x, quick 0,94x - Adequate liquidity.
PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3
Status: ✓ SOLID & IMPROVING
✓ ROA 4%, ROE 6,64%, ROIC 6,7% - All positive, improving from 2023.
✓ ROIC >WACC likely - Value creation evident.
PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3
Status: ✓ AGGRESSIVE, GROWING, SUSTAINABLE
✓ Dividen Rp 10 = 4,1% yield - Generous untuk Indonesia standard.
✓ Doubled from Rp 5 (2023) - Growth signal.
✓ Payout ratio 87,5% (2024) - High but sustainable if profit grows.
✓ FCF sufficient - Covers dividen needs.
RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2
| Pilar | Status | Nilai |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Profitabilitas | ✓ Excellent, improving | 4.5/5 |
| 2. Arus Kas | ✓ Positive, supports dividen | 4/5 |
| 3. Utang & Solvabilitas | ✓ Pristine | 5/5 |
| 4. Return Investasi | ✓ Solid, improving | 4/5 |
| 5. Dividen | ✓ Generous, growing, sustainable | 4.5/5 |
| RATA-RATA | ✓ EXCELLENT | 4.4/5 |
Score 4.4/5 among best in entire portfolio! Quality stock.
TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2
Fair Value Estimation:
| Model | Fair Value | Current | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E 15x (growth) | Rp 287 | Rp 244 | +17% |
| P/E 16x (acceleration) | Rp 306 | Rp 244 | +25% |
| P/B 1,2x (normal) | Rp 346 | Rp 244 | +42% |
| DCF 10% growth | Rp 350-400 | Rp 244 | +43-64% |
| Consensus | Rp 350-400 | Rp 244 | +43-64% |
🟢 CONSENSUS FAIR VALUE Rp 350-400 suggests 43-64% UPSIDE from Rp 244.
TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2
| Scenario | Probability | Return | Target | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 40% | +100% | Rp 488 | Profit Rp 35M (2026), margin 6%, dividen Rp 15 |
| Base | 45% | +45% | Rp 354 | Profit Rp 25M (2025), Rp 30M (2026), steady growth |
| Bear | 15% | -20% | Rp 195 | Growth stalls, margin pressure, dividen cut |
| Expected | +52% | Rp 369 | Probability-weighted strong return |
🟢 Expected return +52% over 2Y + dividen 4% annually = ~7% total return/year EXCELLENT.
Ringkasan & Level Teknikal Kuncih2
Faktor pendukung tesis positif:
- Profit inflection +208% (2024) → +53% 9M (2025) → +39% guidance 2025
- Dividen aggressive Rp 10 = 4,1% yield, doubled from 2023
- Valuation cheap P/E 12,75x, P/B 0,85x (→ Fair value Rp 350-400)
- Fundamental solid (ROA 4%, ROE 6,64%, D/E 0,27x, Altman 3,62)
- Margin excellent (operating 9%, net 5% Q3) = pricing power
- Momentum excellent +34% YTD, +27% 1W recent
- Piotroski F-Score 7.0 strong financial signals
- FCF positive supports growth + dividen
Level Teknikal:
Zona Rp 244-260 mencerminkan harga saat ini; Rp 220-230 berada di area pelemahan; di atas Rp 400 valuasi mulai mendekati estimasi fair value konsensus.
Horizon analisis relevan mengikuti siklus pertumbuhan 2-3 tahun.
Catalysts to Monitor:
| Event | Impact |
|---|---|
| 2025 full-year results | Profit Rp 25M target confirmation (+39%) |
| Dividen 2025 | Potential Rp 12-15 (if profit guidance met) |
| Education ministry budget 2026 | Revenue uplift (key customer base) |
| SAP ERP implementation | Efficiency margin improvement 2026 |
| New product launches | Diversification, market expansion |
Level Valuasi Lanjutan:
Zona Rp 350-400 mendekati estimasi fair value konsensus (horizon 18-24 bulan); di atas Rp 450 valuasi mulai mencerminkan revaluasi penuh; Rp 200-220 berada di area pelemahan lebih dalam.
KESIMPULANh2
Ringkasan: CINT adalah saham growth + dividend hybrid berkualitas tinggi dengan fundamental yang sangat solid.
Strengths:
- ✓ Profit inflection +208% (2024), growth trajectory continuing (+39% guidance 2025)
- ✓ Dividen aggressive 4,1% yield, doubled YoY, sustainable
- ✓ Valuation cheap P/E 12,75x, fair value Rp 350-400 (+43-64% upside)
- ✓ Fundamental solid across all 5 pillars (4.4/5 avg score)
- ✓ Momentum excellent +34% YTD, +27% recent
- ✓ Financial pristine D/E 0,27x, Altman 3,62, FCF positive
Risks (Manageable):
- 🟡 Payout ratio 87,5% high (but sustainable if profit grows)
- 🟡 Furniture industry cyclical (economic sensitive)
- 🟡 Competition from imported furniture
Profil saham ini menggabungkan potensi pertumbuhan dan dividen, dengan estimasi total return tahunan di kisaran 7-10% (kenaikan harga + dividen).
Secara probabilitas-weighted, skenario base mengarah ke potensi +52% kenaikan harga dalam 2 tahun ditambah 8% dividen kumulatif — bergantung pada asumsi pertumbuhan di atas terealisasi.
Analisis dibuat 30 Desember 2025 berdasarkan 9M 2025 results, FY 2024 audit, management guidance 2025, dan momentum strength.
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