Tanggal Analisis: 16 November 2025
Data Source: KeyStats Q3 2025, Financial Statements 9M2025
Current Price: Rp 1.280/saham (Nov 16, 2025)
Rating: BUY (for dividend income) / HOLD | Fair Value: Rp 1.200-1.400 | Target Price: Rp 1.300-1.500 (steady-state, no growth)

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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFh2

PT Paramita Bangun Sarana Tbk (PBSA) adalah QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCK dengan MATURE CASH COW characteristics. Perusahaan memiliki fundamental exceptional (ROE 30,27%, net margin 19,10%) dan strong cash generation (FCF Rp 295B), dengan attractive dividend yield 4,30%.

TETAPI, perusahaan menghadapi STRUCTURAL GROWTH HEADWIND - revenue declining -19,17% YoY dan earnings declining -36,17% YoY karena heavy dependence pada palm oil construction sector yang sedang mengalami slowdown structural.

Ini adalah perfect dividend stock untuk income investors tetapi NOT untuk growth investors. Valuasi fair-to-slightly-premium (PER 16,53x, PBV 5,00x) reflects quality tetapi earnings declining creates valuation risk.

Key Highlights:

• ✓✓✓ Profitabilitas exceptional: Net margin 19,10%, gross 23,23%
• ✓✓✓ Returns outstanding: ROE 30,27%, ROCE 33,05%
• ✓✓ Balance sheet fortress: Minimal debt Rp 11B, net cash Rp 195B
• ✓✓ Strong cash flow: OCF Rp 304B, FCF Rp 295B
• ✓ Dividend attractive: 4,30% yield, sustainable payout 78,84%
• ❌ Revenue declining: -19,17% YoY (structural headwind)
• ❌ Earnings declining: -36,17% YoY (momentum deteriorating)
• ⚠️ High PBV 5,00x for declining growth company
• ⚠️ Palm oil sector dependency (ESG & regulation risks)

Rekomendasi: BUY for income investors at current price, HOLD for existing holders, NOT for growth investors.

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TAHAP 1: BUSINESS PROFILE & SECTOR HEADWINDh2

Company Overviewh3

PT Paramita Bangun Sarana Tbk (PBSA) didirikan 2002, IPO 2016. Perusahaan adalah specialized industrial construction contractor dengan focus pada oil palm sector.

Products & Services:

• Civil construction (pile driving, concrete/steel structures)
• Infrastructure development (road construction)
• Mechanical works (machinery installation)
• Electrical works

Revenue Segmentation:

• Palm oil industry: 70-80% of revenue
• Other industrial: 10-20%
• Commercial/office: < 10%

Recent Projects:

• Palm oil refinery construction (Kalimantan, Lampung)
• CPO bulking stations
• Oleochemical facilities
• Biodiesel plants
• Plaza Paramita office building (Jakarta)

Sector Headwind - Critical Contexth3

Palm Oil Industry Crisis:

• Indonesia subsidi dicabut tahun 2024 → biodiesel production drop
• ESG pressures globally → declining investment in new palm oil projects
• Market saturation → few new refinery/processing projects
• Result: Construction demand for palm oil facilities COLLAPSING

PBSA Impact:

• Revenue 9M2025: Rp 1.089B vs Rp 1.334B 9M2024 = -18,3%
• Earnings 9M2025: Rp 157B vs Rp 245B 9M2024 = -36,0%
• This is NOT temporary - STRUCTURAL downturn

Revenue & Earnings Declineh3

9M2025 Performance vs 9M2024:

Revenue:        Rp 1.089B vs Rp 1.334B = -18,3% ❌
Gross Profit:   Rp 253B vs Rp 265B = -4,5% (margins stable)
Net Income:     Rp 157B vs Rp 245B = -36,0% ❌
EPS:            Rp 52.33 vs Rp 81.67 = -36,0%

Quarterly Trend 2025:

• Q1: Rp 26B (weak)
• Q2: Rp 71B (moderate)
• Q3: Rp 60B (declining)

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TAHAP 2: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - QUALITY BUT DECLININGh2

Profitability - EXCELLENT (but with declining base)h3

Margins (Still Strong on lower revenue):

Gross Profit Margin:      23,23%  ✓ Good (stable despite revenue down)
Operating Profit Margin:  16,72%  ✓ Good
Net Profit Margin:        19,10%  ✓✓ Excellent

Assessment: Company maintaining excellent margins despite revenue decline = disciplined cost management. This is positive signal (not cutting prices to maintain volume).

Return Metrics - EXCEPTIONAL (on declining capital base)h3

Metric	Value	Status
ROE	30,27%	✓✓ Excellent
ROA	19,10%	✓ Good
ROCE	33,05%	✓✓ Exceptional
ROIC	27,91%	✓ Excellent

Critical Note: High returns reflect high profitability on capital base, BUT declining earnings means returns will also decline if trend continues.

Growth - STRUCTURAL HEADWINDh3

Revenue Growth YoY:  -19,17% ❌ DECLINING
Earnings Growth YoY: -36,17% ❌ DECLINING

Earnings declining FASTER than revenue = margin compression risk
This is structural - not temporary cyclical issue

Management Guidance:

• Target revenue 2025: Rp 1.380T (annual)
• 9M2025 already Rp 1.089B
• Implies Q4 needs Rp 291B (vs Q4 2024 Rp 420B = -31% expected)
• Management targets likely MISSED

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TAHAP 3: BALANCE SHEET & CASH FLOWh2

Balance Sheet - FORTRESSh3

Debt Position:

Long-term Debt:       Rp 0B
Short-term Debt:      Rp 11B ✓ Minimal
Total Debt:           Rp 11B ✓✓ Near zero
NET CASH POSITION:    Rp 195B ✓✓ Positive

Solvency Metrics:

• Debt/Equity: 0,01x (minimal)
• Current Ratio: 2,27x (excellent)
• Quick Ratio: 2,17x (excellent)
• Altman Z-Score: 6,95 (SAFE zone)
• Interest Coverage: 186,28x (excellent)

Verdict: Fortress balance sheet. No financial distress risk. Can weather downturn.

Cash Flow - EXCELLENTh3

Operating Cash Flow: Rp 304 Miliar

vs. Revenue Rp 1.466B:
OCF/Revenue = 20,7% (very good, typical 15-20%)

vs. Net Income Rp 232B:
OCF/NI = 131% (excellent, converting profit to cash efficiently)

Free Cash Flow: Rp 295 Miliar

Operating CF:     Rp 304B
Less Capex:       -Rp 9B (minimal capex!)
FREE CASH FLOW:   Rp 295B ✓✓ STRONG

FCF Margin:       20,1% of revenue (excellent)

Key Insight: Company generating massive cash despite declining earnings. This enables high dividend payout and provides safety margin.

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TAHAP 4: DIVIDEND - ATTRACTIVE BUT HIGH PAYOUTh2

Current Dividendh3

Dividend Per Share:       Rp 55,00
Current Price:            Rp 1.280
Dividend Yield:           4,30% ✓ Attractive
EPS TTM:                  Rp 77,44
Payout Ratio:             78,84% ⚠️ High but sustainable

Sustainability Assessmenth3

Dividend Coverage:

Free Cash Flow:       Rp 295B
Dividend Paid:        ~Rp 165B (Rp 55 × 3B shares)
FCF Coverage:         1,8x (very safe)

Assessment: Dividend is SUSTAINABLE on cash basis but payout ratio 78,84% is HIGH. Leaves minimal room for:

• Growth capex
• Share buybacks
• Emergency reserves

Risk: If earnings decline further → may force dividend cut.

Dividend Historyh3

2024:  Rp 55,00 (strong)
2023:  Rp 53,00
2022:  Rp 40,00
2021:  Rp 47,00
2020:  Rp 27,00

Dividend stable despite recent earnings decline

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TAHAP 5: VALUASI ANALYSISh2

Current Valuation Metricsh3

Metrik	PBSA	Market	Status
PER TTM	16,53x	8,59x	+92% premium
PER Annualised	18,35x	-	Premium
PBV	5,00x	1,5-2,0x	2,5-3,3x premium
P/S	2,62x	2-3x	Fair
Earnings Yield	6,05%	~11-12%	Lower
PEG	1,47	Normal 1,0	Above 1 (slower growth)

Valuation Assessmenth3

PER 16,53x is PREMIUM but justified by quality:

• Excellent ROE 30,27%, ROCE 33,05%
• Strong profitability 19,10% net margin
• Quality management (maintaining margins despite revenue decline)

BUT PBV 5,00x is EXPENSIVE for declining company:

• Paying Rp 1.280 for equity worth only Rp 255,80 book value
• This 5x premium only justified if company growing
• Company is declining -19,17% revenue YoY

PEG 1,47 indicates undervaluation IF assuming growth resumes:

• But if structural decline continues, PEG becomes expensive

Fair Value Calculationh3

Method 1: PER-Based (Quality Dividend Comparable)

Justified PER for quality dividend stock: 14-16x
Current PER 16,53x = at upper-end of range

For fair value:
EPS Rp 77,44 × 15x = Rp 1,161
Current Rp 1,280 = 10% premium to fair value

Method 2: Dividend Discount Model

Dividend Rp 55, dividend growth 3-5% (conservative)
Discount rate 9% (for quality)
Fair Value = Rp 1,100 - Rp 1,300 (range)

Method 3: Book Value (Downside)

Book Value per Share: Rp 255,80
Current Price: Rp 1,280 = 5,00x book value
PBV 5,00x is PREMIUM even for quality

If company struggles further:
Price could compress to 3,5-4,0x book = Rp 900-1,020

Fair Value Rangeh3

Scenario	Price	Probability	Basis
Bear	Rp 900-1,050	25%	Revenue decline accelerates, PBV compression
Base	Rp 1,150-1,350	60%	Steady dividend, earnings stable
Bull	Rp 1,400-1,600	15%	Diversification works, stabilization

Current Rp 1,280 = Upper-mid range BASE case

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TAHAP 6: RISKS & CATALYSTSh2

Key Risks (Ranked by Probability)h3

1. Continued Structural Decline (HIGH PROBABILITY)

• Palm oil industry facing long-term headwinds
• Subsidy removal = biodiesel decline continues
• ESG pressures limiting new investment
• Few new projects in pipeline
• Risk: Revenue continues declining, margins compress

2. Dividend Cut Risk (MEDIUM-HIGH PROBABILITY)

• Payout ratio 78,84% leaves no margin for error
• If earnings miss targets → forced to cut
• Would trigger sharp selling pressure
• Risk: 20-30% stock decline on announcement

3. Valuation Compression (MEDIUM PROBABILITY)

• PBV 5,00x is premium for declining company
• PER 16,53x could compress if market reprices
• If growth story dies, valuation multiple shrinks
• Risk: 15-25% downside from compression

4. Low Liquidity (MEDIUM PROBABILITY)

• Free float only 8,36% (very low!)
• Difficult to exit large positions
• Potential for manipulation
• Risk: Bid-ask spread widens, execution slippage

Positive Catalystsh3

1. Diversification Success (Low Probability)

• Plaza Paramita office building (rental income)
• Non-palm oil industrial projects
• If revenue from diversification grows significantly

2. Palm Oil Recovery (Low Probability)

• If global oil prices spike → biodiesel demand returns
• If ESG pressure eases → new projects green-lit
• Unlikely in next 12-24 months

3. Dividend Stability (High Probability)

• Company strong enough to maintain dividend even with declining earnings
• 4,30% yield remains attractive
• Good for income investors

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TAHAP 7: REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: BUY (for dividend income) / HOLDh3

Investment Thesis: PBSA adalah QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCK dengan exceptional profitability (ROE 30,27%, net margin 19,10%), fortress balance sheet (minimal debt, net cash Rp 195B), dan strong cash generation (FCF Rp 295B). Attractive 4,30% dividend yield makes this perfect for income-focused investors seeking stability and quality.

TETAPI, NOT for growth investors - company declining structurally due to palm oil sector headwind. Earnings declining -36,17% YoY is serious concern. Valuation fair-to-slightly-expensive (PBV 5,00x premium) for declining company.

Investor Profilesh3

Suitable For:

• ✓ Income investors seeking dividend yield (4,30% attractive)
• ✓ Retired/conservative investors (quality + stability)
• ✓ Dividend reinvestment strategy (compound over time)
• ✓ Portfolio core holding (quality base)
• ✓ Defensive portfolio positioning

NOT Suitable For:

• ❌ Growth investors (declining -19,17% revenue)
• ❌ Short-term traders (illiquid, low float)
• ❌ Momentum traders (deteriorating fundamentals)
• ❌ Sector bears on palm oil (conflict of conviction)

Price Targets & Action Planh3

Price Level	Action	Rationale	Confidence
Rp 1,100-1,150	STRONG BUY	Deep value, attractive yield	High
Rp 1,150-1,280	BUY	Fair entry for income	High
Rp 1,280-1,350	HOLD	Fair value, watch earnings	Medium
Rp 1,350-1,450	REDUCE 50%	Fair-to-expensive, trim	Medium
Rp 1,450+	SELL	Expensive relative to fundamentals	Medium

Position Sizingh3

For Income Investors:

Target Position:          3-5% of portfolio (core holding)
Entry Strategy:           Buy gradually Rp 1,100-1,280
Dividend Reinvestment:    YES (compound, DCA)
Hold Period:              3-5 years minimum (long-term income)

Risk Management:

Stop Loss:               Rp 900 (if fundamental deterioration confirmed)
Profit Taking:           Trim 50% if reaches Rp 1,450 (take some gains)
Rebalancing:             If allocation exceeds 5%, trim to maintain

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KESIMPULANh2

PBSA adalah QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCK tetapi MATURE dengan STRUCTURAL HEADWIND:

Exceptional Strengthsh3

• ✓✓✓ Outstanding profitability: ROE 30,27%, net margin 19,10%
• ✓✓✓ Exceptional returns: ROCE 33,05% (generating value)
• ✓✓ Fortress balance sheet: Minimal debt Rp 11B, net cash Rp 195B
• ✓✓ Strong cash generation: OCF Rp 304B, FCF Rp 295B
• ✓ Attractive dividend: 4,30% yield (sustainable on cash basis)
• ✓ Low financial risk: Altman Z 6,95 (safe), DER 0,01

Critical Weaknessesh3

• ❌ Revenue declining: -19,17% YoY (structural headwind)
• ❌ Earnings declining: -36,17% YoY (deteriorating momentum)
• ❌ Palm oil sector dependent: ESG & regulation risks high
• ❌ High payout ratio: 78,84% (limited growth capex room)
• ⚠️ PBV 5,00x premium: Expensive for declining company
• ⚠️ Low free float: 8,36% (illiquidity risk)

Valuation Verdicth3

• PER 16,53x = Fair for quality dividend stock
• PBV 5,00x = Expensive for declining company
• Current Rp 1,280 = Fair-to-slightly-expensive for base case
• Dividend yield 4,30% = Attractive for income investors

Investment Thesis Summaryh3

PBSA is QUALITY DIVIDEND CASH COW - excellent for income investors seeking:

• Stable 4,30% dividend yield
• Quality balance sheet (minimal risk)
• Strong cash generation capability
• Proven management execution

BUT NOT for growth investors - company declining structurally, not temporary cyclical.

Final Recommendationh3

⭐ BUY for income investors at Rp 1,100-1,280

• Attractive 4,30% yield
• Quality fundamentals
• Fortress balance sheet
• Suitable for long-term dividend income

⭐ HOLD for existing holders at Rp 1,280

• Quality position to maintain
• Monitor quarterly for further decline
• Reinvest dividends

✗ AVOID for growth investors

• Company in structural decline
• No growth catalysts visible
• Better opportunities elsewhere

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Analisis Tanggal: 16 November 2025
Status: Comprehensive fundamental analysis complete
Rekomendasi Utama: BUY (for income), HOLD (existing holders), AVOID (growth investors)