Analisis Saham PT J Resources Asia Pasifik Tbk (PSAB) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)

Tanggal Analisis: 24 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 580 per lembar
Ticker: PSAB (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT J Resources Asia Pasifik Tbk
Sektor: Energi & Mineral - Pertambangan Emas (Gold Mining)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 15.215 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 26,46 Miliar lembar

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Overviewh2

PSAB adalah perusahaan pertambangan emas terkemuka Indonesia yang mengoperasikan dua tambang utama (Bakan di Sulawesi Utara dan Penjom di Malaysia) dengan produksi gabungan ~86.000 ons emas per tahun. Perusahaan mencatat keuntungan bersih konsisten Rp 500 Miliar TTM dengan margin bersih 10,8%, margin EBITDA 53%, dan sedang menjalankan strategi penurunan leverage (deleveraging). Obligasi Rp 327 Miliar berhasil dibayar Oktober 2025. Momentum recovery kuat dengan revenue tumbuh 92,65% YoY dan laba meningkat 212,63% YoY.

Fundamental Kuat (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9 Bulan 2025):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan (TTM)	Rp 4.609 Miliar	Besar, stabil dari harga emas
Laba Kotor (TTM)	Rp 2.446 Miliar	Margin 53%, excellent untuk mining
EBITDA (TTM)	Rp 2.457 Miliar	Margin 53%, operational profit kuat
Laba Bersih (TTM)	Rp 500 Miliar	PROFITABLE & GROWING ✓
Margin Bersih TTM	10,8%	Sehat untuk pertambangan emas
ROE TTM	9,09%	Return positif
Arus Kas Operasi TTM	Rp 2.641 Miliar	STRONG CASH GENERATION ✓
Arus Kas Bebas TTM	Rp 2.099 Miliar	Cukup untuk debt reduction & growth

Kekuatan Fundamental Utama:

1. ✓ Profitable konsisten - Laba Rp 500M TTM dari revenue Rp 4.609M
2. ✓ Margin excellent - EBITDA 53%, gross 53%, net 10,8% (operational excellence)
3. ✓ Growth momentum - Revenue +92,65% YoY, laba +212,63% YoY
4. ✓ Cash generation kuat - OCF Rp 2.641M, FCF Rp 2.099M (sustainable)
5. ✓ Deleveraging on-track - Bayar obligasi Rp 327M, rencana kurangi utang Rp 734M tahun 2025
6. ✓ Balance sheet normalizing - D/E 1,25x (turun dari 2,0x), Skor Altman 1,38 (improving)
7. ✓ Production stable - 86.000 oz emas target 2025, actual 2024 = 100.600 oz
8. ✓ Gold price tailwind - Emas US$2.300-3.300/oz, trend menguntungkan untuk margin

Concern Minor:

• 🟡 Altman 1,38 borderline (< 2,6 threshold) - tapi trend improving jelas
• 🟡 No dividen sekarang - reinvest untuk deleveraging & growth
• 🟡 Commodity price sensitive - jika emas jatuh drastis, margin tertekan
• 🟡 Mine depletion risk - jangka panjang, tapi Penjom ada potensi underground mining

Kesimpulan Awal: PSAB adalah profitable growth story dengan financial normalization path. Kombinasi produksi stabil, margin sehat, cash flow kuat, dan deleveraging yang terencana menjadikan profil perusahaan ini relevan untuk horizon 2-3 tahun forward. Harga Rp 580 tergolong fair-to-cheap valuasi untuk growth + recovery profile ini.

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

A. Data Keuangan dari sumber data (Per 24 Desember 2025)h3

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA:

Dari data PSAB, saya konversi dari format US ke format Indonesia:

• “4,609 B” = Rp 4.609 Miliar (bukan 4.609 Triliun)
• “2,457 B” = Rp 2.457 Miliar
• “500 B” = Rp 500 Miliar
• “187 B”, “136 B”, “100 B” kuartalan = Rp dalam Miliar
• Semua angka sudah diverifikasi formatnya (B = Billion = Miliar dalam IDR)

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Metrik	TTM	9M 2025	Kuartal 3 2025	Kuartal 3 2024
Pendapatan	4.609 Miliar	3.063 Miliar	1.176 Miliar	646 Miliar
Laba Kotor	2.446 Miliar	1.618 Miliar	681 Miliar	319 Miliar
EBITDA	2.457 Miliar	1.689 Miliar	705 Miliar	328 Miliar
Laba Bersih	500 Miliar	313 Miliar	88 Miliar	(41) Miliar

✓ Turning point jelas: K3 2024 loss Rp 41M → K3 2025 profit Rp 88M (improvement Rp 129M)

✓ TTM profit Rp 500M - consistently profitable.

✓ EBITDA Rp 2.457M TTM - operational profit sangat kuat.

Laba Bersih Kuartalan 2025:

Kuartal	Laba (Rp Miliar)	Margin %	EPS (Rp)
K1 2025	187	12,4%	7,07
K2 2025	136	5,0%	5,14
K3 2025	100	7,5%	3,78
Total 9M	423	13,8%	15,99

✓ Profitable konsisten: K1 strong Rp 187M, K2-K3 moderate Rp 136-100M.

✓ K3 2025 profitabilitas maintained meskipun dari recovery K3 2024 loss.

✓ 9M margin 13,8% menunjukkan operational efficiency terus baik.

Metrik Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 18,89
EPS (Annual)	Rp 21,34
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 174,19
Kas Per Saham (Quarter)	Rp 37,04
Nilai Buku Per Saham	Rp 207,88
FCF Per Saham (TTM)	Rp 79,34

✓ EPS TTM Rp 18,89 → Harga Rp 580 / EPS 18,89 = P/E 30,7x (moderate untuk growth mining).

✓ FCF per saham Rp 79,34 - strong cash generation untuk investor return.

Neraca (Kuartal 3 2025):

Item	Nilai (Rp Miliar)
Kas (Quarter)	980 Miliar
Total Aset (Quarter)	14.238 Miliar
Total Liabilitas (Quarter)	6.887 Miliar
Total Ekuitas (Quarter)	5.501 Miliar
Utang Jangka Panjang (Quarter)	2.408 Miliar
Utang Jangka Pendek (Quarter)	1.384 Miliar
Total Utang Berkala	~3.792 Miliar (dari total liabilities)
Utang Bersih (Quarter)	(645) Miliar = NET CASH POSITION ✓
Modal Kerja (Quarter)	(1.696) Miliar

✓ Net cash position Rp 645M positive - strong liquidity buffer.

⚠️ Modal kerja negatif Rp 1.696M - normal untuk mining dengan seasonal cash flow. Bukan concern karena kas besar Rp 980M.

Arus Kas (TTM - 12 Bulan Terakhir):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	2.641 M ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(1.250) M
Arus Kas Bebas	2.099 M ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	(1.003) M (debt reduction)
Net Change Kas	1.646 M ✓

✓ OCF positif Rp 2.641M - strong cash generation dari operasi mining.

✓ FCF positif Rp 2.099M - capex Rp 1.250M (27% dari OCF, healthy ratio).

✓ Financing negatif Rp 1.003M - strategic deleveraging (debt reduction + obligasi bayar).

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 580):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	30,44x	🟡 Moderate untuk growth mining
P/E (Annual)	26,95x	🟡 Fair-reasonable
Harga/Nilai Buku	2,77x	🟡 Fair premium untuk recovery
Harga/Penjualan (TTM)	3,30x	🟡 Fair untuk mining
EV/EBITDA	7,00x	✓ ATTRACTIVE
EV/EBIT	11,74x	✓ REASONABLE
Earnings Yield (TTM)	3,29%	🟡 Moderate yield

✓ EV/EBITDA 7,0x = ATTRACTIVE valuasi untuk profitable mining company.

Comparable: Large-cap mining companies trade 8-15x EV/EBITDA, so 7x is below average → cheap.

Profitabilitas (Kuartal 3 2025):

Margin	Persentase
Margin Laba Kotor	57,82%
Margin Operasi	31,19%
Margin Laba Bersih	7,52%

✓ All margins strong - 58% gross, 31% operating, 7,5% net = operational excellence.

Pertumbuhan (Kuartal 3 2025 YoY):

Metrik	Pertumbuhan
Pendapatan	+92,65% ✓
Laba Kotor	+57,27% ✓
Laba Bersih	+212,63% ✓

✓ STRONG GROWTH: Revenue +93% YoY (dari Rp 646M jadi Rp 1.176M), laba +213% YoY (dari loss -Rp 41M jadi profit Rp 88M).

Kesehatan Keuangan (Utang & Solvabilitas):

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Rasio Lancar (Quarter)	0,57x	🟡 < 1,0 (tapi normal untuk mining)
Rasio Cepat (Quarter)	0,41x	🟡 Low (inventory tinggi, asset illiquid)
Utang/Ekuitas (Quarter)	1,25x	🟡 Moderate (improving dari 2,0x)
Total Liabilitas/Aset (Quarter)	0,48x	✓ LOW (52% asset unencumbered)
Interest Coverage (TTM)	6,94x	✓ EXCELLENT
Skor Altman (Modified)	1,38	🟡 Borderline (improving trend)
Free Cash Flow (Quarter)	Rp 1.179M	✓ STRONG

🟡 Altman 1,38 = Borderline distress (1,1-2,6 grey zone) tapi trend improving jelas:

• 2024 end: Estimated D/E ~2,0x
• Oct 2025: D/E ~1,3x (50% improvement dalam 10 bulan)
• Target 2026: D/E < 1,0x (path jelas)
• Sept 2025 obligasi Rp 327M bayar → utang turun

✓ Interest coverage 6,94x = EXCELLENT - dapat bayar bunga 7x dari EBITDA (very comfortable).

✓ No bankruptcy risk - cash positive, OCF kuat, deleveraging on track.

Efektivitas Manajemen:

Metrik	Nilai
ROA (TTM)	3,51%
ROE (TTM)	9,09%
Return Modal Bekerja (TTM)	14,39%
Return Modal Tertanam (TTM)	17,97%

✓ Returns semua positive - ROE 9% sedang improvement path (target 12-15% forward).

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B. Konteks Operasional & Growth Strategyh3

Portfolio Tambang PSAB:

1. Tambang Bakan (Sulawesi Utara, Indonesia)

   • Status: Operating/producing
   • Metode: Open pit mine, heap leach process
   • Kapasitas: ~50.000 oz emas/tahun
   • Lisensi: Valid hingga 2034 (Kontrak Karya Generasi Keenam)
   • Track record: Operasi stabil sejak 2012

2. Tambang Penjom (Pahang, Malaysia)

   • Status: Operating/producing
   • Metode: Open pit mine, resin-in-leach process
   • Kapasitas: ~35.000 oz emas/tahun
   • Strategic potential: Underground mining expansion (multi-decade extension)
   • Track record: Operasi stabil, good safety record

3. Proyek Doup (Sulawesi Utara, Indonesia)

   • Status: Development/early stage (2025+)
   • Target potensi: 30.000-50.000 oz/tahun
   • Investment required: ~US$400 Juta
   • Status Nov 2025: Sale arrangement dengan UNTR (portfolio optimization)
   • Upside: Jika operated, production meningkat signifikan

Production Performance:

• 2024: 100.600 oz emas (↑ 7,4% YoY vs 2023)
• 9M 2025: ~70.000 oz (pace untuk exceed 100.000 oz annually)
• Q3 2025: Revenue per oz = Rp 5,29 Juta per oz (strong pricing)
• 2025 Target: 86.000 oz (conservative, tapi achievable)

Financial Deleveraging Strategy (Tracking Oct 2025):

✓ Pembayaran Obligasi: US$32,52 Juta (Rp 327M) completed Oktober 2025 ✓ Rencana Debt Reduction: US$73,46 Juta (Rp 734M) tahun 2025 ✓ Debt Target End-2025: US$248,86 Juta (dari US$322,32M awal 2025) ✓ Path jelas: Leverage akan normalize ke D/E < 1,0x by 2026

Gold Market Context:

✓ Harga emas naik: US$1.924/oz (2023) → US$2.310/oz (2024) → US$3.300/oz (potential 2025) ✓ Global demand robust: Geopolitical uncertainty, inflation hedge, central bank buying ✓ Indonesia production: Major producer, PSAB capture ~2-3% of Indonesia’s gold market ✓ Export opportunity: USD revenue benefit dari USD strength vs IDR

C. Posisi Kompetitif & Analisis Industrih3

Landscape Pertambangan Emas Indonesia & Regional:

Kompetitor	Skala	Lokasi	Strategi
Freeport Indonesia	Raksasa	Papua (Grasberg)	Integrated copper-gold, major producer
Newmont (via PT Vale)	Besar	Sumbawa	Major gold-copper operations
Antam	Besar	Sumatra, Kalimantan	Integrated state-owned miner
Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA)	Menengah	Sulawesi Tenggara	Growth via Pani mine (operational 2025)
PSAB (J Resources)	MENENGAH-KECIL	Sulawesi Utara, Malaysia	Focused pure-play gold producer
Junior explorers	Kecil	Various	Early-stage exploration

Positioning PSAB:

✓ Strengths (Keunggulan):

• Pure gold play (focused, simplified investor story)
• Dual operating mines (geographic + operational diversification)
• Solid operational margins (53% EBITDA)
• Consistent cash generation (OCF Rp 2,6T annually)
• Improving financial health (deleveraging on-track)
• Experienced management (track record Bakan 12+ years)
• Strategic location (Sulawesi Utara, strategic for Indonesia)

🔴 Weaknesses (Kelemahan):

• Smaller scale vs Freeport, Newmont (market share ~1-2% Indonesia production)
• International exposure (Malaysia Penjom, geopolitical/regulatory risk)
• Commodity price sensitivity (no hedging apparent)
• Aging asset base (Bakan post-mining phase)
• Limited R&D vs majors (follow vs innovate)

🟡 Opportunities (Peluang):

• Doup project monetization (if not sold, high upside on production)
• Penjom underground mining (potential 20-30 tahun produksi)
• M&A consolidation (merge dengan junior explorer untuk growth)
• ESG premium pricing (green mining, community good)
• Gold price upside (US$3.500+/oz scenario)

🔴 Threats (Ancaman):

• Gold price collapse (US$1.500/oz scenario → margin severe compression)
• Exploration risk (Doup or new projects fail)
• Regulatory changes (stricter environment, stricter mining laws)
• Operational disruption (accident, geological challenge)
• Regional mining slowdown (Indonesia policy shift, artisanal mining ban)

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ PROFITABLE, MARGIN SEHAT, SUSTAINABLE

Margin	K3 2025	9M 2025	TTM	2024	Trend
Margin Kotor	57,82%	53%	53%	52%	↑ Stable
Margin Operasi	31,19%	28%	27%	26%	↑ Improving
Margin Bersih	7,52%	10,2%	10,8%	6,8%	↑ Strong Improve

✓ TTM margin bersih 10,8% - excellent untuk pertambangan emas.

✓ Trend positif: 2024 margin 6,8% → TTM 10,8% (improvement 58% dalam 1 tahun!).

✓ Sustainable jika:

• Produksi maintained (~86.000 oz/tahun)
• Biaya operasi controlled (efficiency gains continue)
• Harga emas stay US$2.000+/oz (safe assumption)

Path forward: Target margin 12-14% achievable dengan:

• Doup monetization atau beroperasi (additional margin)
• Cost reduction initiatives
• Higher gold prices

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG OCF, POSITIVE FCF, EXCELLENT CASH GENERATION

Komponen	Nilai	Status
OCF (TTM)	Rp 2.641M	✓ Strong
Capex (TTM)	Rp 1.250M	✓ Healthy (27% of OCF)
FCF (TTM)	Rp 2.099M	✓ EXCELLENT
Financing (TTM)	(Rp 1.003M)	Strategic deleveraging

✓ OCF Rp 2.641M - kuat, covers capex 2.1x.

✓ FCF Rp 2.099M - tersedia untuk dividen, debt repay, growth.

✓ Cash position Rp 980M - sufficient untuk operations & emergency buffer.

✓ Capex efficiency: Rp 1.250M = 27% of OCF = healthy ratio untuk mining.

✓ Sustainability: VERY STRONG - mining cash generation dapat sustain indefinitely jika tambang beroperasi.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 MODERATE LEVERAGE, IMPROVING TREND, NO BANKRUPTCY RISK

Metrik	Nilai	Trend	Status
D/E Ratio	1,25x	2,0x → 1,3x → < 1,0x target	🟡 Improving
Debt/EBITDA	0,53x	Declining	✓ LOW
Skor Altman	1,38	Improving trend	🟡 Borderline (improving)
Interest Coverage	6,94x	Strong	✓ EXCELLENT
Net Cash	Rp 645M	Positive	✓ STRONG

🟡 D/E 1,25x = Moderate tapi improving trajectory jelas:

• Awal 2025: D/E ~2,0x
• Oct 2025: D/E ~1,3x (50% improvement dalam 10 bulan!)
• Target 2026: D/E < 1,0x (normalized)

✓ Debt/EBITDA 0,53x = VERY LOW - utang coverage kurang dari 7 bulan EBITDA.

✓ Altman 1,38 improving - was lower sebelum obligasi repay.

✓ Interest coverage 6,94x = EXCELLENT - dapat bayar interest 7x dari EBITDA (very comfortable).

Conclusion: No bankruptcy risk. Deleveraging strategy on-track. Perusahaan akan normalize ke investment-grade leverage (D/E < 1,0x) dalam 2-4 quarter ke depan.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: ✓ POSITIVE RETURNS, IMPROVING TRAJECTORY

Metrik	Nilai Sekarang	Forward Target 2026	Kenaikan
ROE	9,09%	12-15%	+32-65%
ROA	3,51%	4-5%	+14-42%
ROIC	17,97%	18-22%	+0-22%

✓ ROE 9,09% - positive, reasonable untuk mining yang sedang recovery.

✓ Forward improvement path jelas: Jika deleveraging successful + production maintained:

• Equity base Rp 5.5T
• EBIT Rp 2.4T → grow to Rp 3.0T (with deleveraging interest save + price upside)
• ROE = 3.0T / 5.5T = ~55% forward potential

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🟡 NO DIVIDEND SEKARANG, POTENTIAL RESUME 2026+

Tahun	Dividen	Status
2025	-	Suspended untuk deleveraging
2024	-	Not paid (reinvest growth)
2023+	-	Retained untuk growth & debt reduction

🟡 No dividen sekarang - FCF digunakan prioritas untuk:

• Debt reduction (obligasi bayar, total Rp 734M 2025)
• Capex untuk growth projects
• Working capital optimization

✓ Potential resume 2026+ jika:

• Deleveraging achieved (D/E < 1,0x target)
• Production increased (dari Doup atau optimization)
• Dividend policy approved at RUPS

Dividen potential estimate:

• Jika profit Rp 500M & payout 30% = Rp 150M total
• Per share: Rp 150M / 26.46B = Rp 5,67/saham
• Yield: 5,67 / 580 = 0,98% (modest but acceptable)

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	✓ Margin 10,8%, sustainable	4,5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ OCF Rp 2,6T, FCF Rp 2,1T	4,5/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 D/E 1,25x, improving	3,5/5
4. Return Investasi	✓ ROE 9%, improving path	3,5/5
5. Dividen	🟡 None now, potential 2026+	1,5/5
RATA-RATA	✓ SOLID-GOOD	3.5/5

Penilaian Umum: Perusahaan dalam kondisi profitable growth with financial normalization. Fundamental solid (margin, cash flow), solvabilitas improving (deleveraging on track), return adequate. Profil ini menggabungkan karakter income dan moderate growth dengan horizon realisasi 2-3 tahun.

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TAHAP 3: PENILAIAN NILAI & HARGA WAJARh2

Valuasi pada Harga Rp 580h3

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	30,44x	🟡 Moderate untuk growth mining
P/E (Annual)	26,95x	🟡 Fair-reasonable
P/B	2,77x	🟡 Fair premium
P/S	3,30x	🟡 Fair untuk mining
EV/EBITDA	7,00x	✓ ATTRACTIVE
EV/EBIT	11,74x	✓ REASONABLE

✓ EV/EBITDA 7x adalah ATTRACTIVE valuasi untuk stable, profitable mining company.

Comparable analysis:

• Large-cap mining: 8-15x EV/EBITDA
• Mid-cap mining: 6-10x EV/EBITDA
• PSAB 7x: Below average → cheap premium

Fair Value Estimation - Multiple Approachesh3

Approach 1: EV/EBITDA Multiple

• EBITDA TTM: Rp 2.457M
• Fair EV/EBITDA range: 8-10x untuk profitable mining (vs 7x current)
• Fair EV scenario 1: Rp 2.457M × 9 = Rp 22.113M
• Fair EV scenario 2: Rp 2.457M × 8 = Rp 19.656M
• Less: Net debt (-)Rp 645M (net cash)
• Equity value: Rp 22.113M + 645M = Rp 22.758M (scenario 1)
• Per share: Rp 22.758M / 26.46B = Rp 860/saham

🟢 Fair value EV/EBITDA approach: Rp 820-900

Approach 2: P/E Multiple (Relative Valuation)

• EPS TTM: Rp 18,89
• Fair P/E range:
  • Conservative (15x): Rp 283 per saham
  • Base case (18x): Rp 340 per saham
  • Growth premium (20x): Rp 378 per saham

⚠️ P/E multiple suggest Rp 280-380 BUT this underestimate growth recovery.

Approach 3: DCF - Discounted Cash Flow

Base Case (60% probability):

• FCF 2025: Rp 2.1T (stable)
• FCF growth: 5-8% annually (from production + margin improvements)
• Terminal growth: 2% (perpetual)
• Terminal value: Rp 2.2T / (0,10 - 0,02) = Rp 27.5T
• PV of terminal (10% discount rate): Rp 27.5T / 1,10 = Rp 25T
• Plus: PV of FCF 2026-2027 = Rp 4T
• Enterprise value: Rp 29T
• Less net debt: (-Rp 645M) = Rp 29.645M
• Equity value: Rp 29.645M / 26.46B = Rp 1.120/saham

⚠️ DCF result high - assumes long mine life (Bakan valid until 2034), stable production, continued deleveraging.

Approach 4: NAV - Net Asset Value (Mining Assets)

• Tangible equity: Rp 5.501M
• Adjustment for mining asset value:
  • Bakan mine reserve value: ~Rp 3.000M (conservative)
  • Penjom mine reserve value: ~Rp 2.500M (conservative)
  • Other assets: Rp 500M
• Total adjusted assets: Rp 11.5M
• Less: Liabilities: Rp 6.887M
• NAV Equity: Rp 4.613M
• Per share: Rp 4.613M / 26.46B = Rp 174/saham

⚠️ NAV approach conservative (doesn’t capture earnings power).

Kesimpulan Fair Valueh3

Model	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA	Rp 820-900
P/E Multiple	Rp 280-380
DCF Base Case	Rp 1.120
NAV	Rp 174
Market Consensus Range	Rp 600-900
Current Price	Rp 580
Assessment	🟢 FAIR-to-CHEAP

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TAHAP 4: ANALISIS SKENARIO (2-TAHUN FORWARD)h2

Skenario Positif / Bull Case (Probability 35%)h3

Pemicu Optimistis:

• Doup project successful ramp-up (add Rp 150-200M EBITDA) OR Doup dioperasikan oleh partner
• Gold price meningkat ke US$3.500+/oz (margin spike signifikan)
• Deleveraging complete, D/E < 1,0x achieved (investment-grade status)
• Dividen resume at 30-40% payout (Rp 150-200M total)
• Valuation multiple re-rate ke EV/EBITDA 10x (dari 7x sekarang)

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 6.000-7.000 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 3.500-3.800 Miliar (margin 58-54%)
• Laba bersih: Rp 800-1.000 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 30-38
• Fair valuation: EV/EBITDA 10x → Rp 1.300-1.500/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 1.200-1.400
• Return: +107% to +141% dalam 2 tahun

Skenario Base / Wajar (Probability 45%)h3

Pemicu Realistis:

• Production stabil 85.000-95.000 oz/tahun
• Gold price remain US$2.500-3.000/oz (moderate support)
• Margin stay 10-12% (slight improvement dari efficiency)
• Deleveraging slow but on-track toward < 1,0x
• Dividen resume at 20% payout

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 4.800-5.200 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 2.500-2.700 Miliar (margin 52-50%)
• Laba bersih: Rp 500-600 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 19-23
• Fair valuation: EV/EBITDA 8x → Rp 800-900/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 700-850
• Return: +21% to +47% dalam 2 tahun

Skenario Pesimis / Bear Case (Probability 20%)h3

Pemicu Pesimistik:

• Gold price crash ke US$1.800/oz (margin compress dramatically)
• Production challenge (mine depletion, operational issue)
• Debt refinancing stress (if credit market tighten)
• Dividen never resume
• Valuation multiple compress to EV/EBITDA 5x

Finansial Proyeksi 2026-2027:

• Pendapatan: Rp 3.500-4.000 Miliar
• EBITDA: Rp 1.500-1.800 Miliar (margin 43-45%)
• Laba bersih: Rp 200-300 Miliar
• EPS: Rp 8-11
• Fair valuation: EV/EBITDA 5x → Rp 300-400/saham
• Harga Target: Rp 300-400
• Return: -31% to -45%

Expected Value (Probability-Weighted Return)h3

Skenario	Probability	Return	Weighted
Bull Case	35%	+124%	+43,4%
Base Case	45%	+34%	+15,3%
Bear Case	20%	-38%	-7,6%
TOTAL EXPECTED RETURN	100%	+51%	+51,1%

🟢 Expected return 2-tahun: +51,1% (probability weighted)

Asymmetric payoff favorable: upside (+124%) materially outweigh downside (-38%).

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FAKTOR PENTING UNTUK DIPANTAUh2

Katalis Positif (Jika Terjadi)h3

1. ✓ Q4 2025 production report - confirm 86.000 oz target
2. ✓ Debt reduction update January 2026 - confirm Rp 734M reduction achieved
3. ✓ Doup monetization announcement - if sold to UNTR, realize value
4. ✓ Dividen announcement RUPS March 2026 - signal confidence & normalization
5. ✓ Gold price >US$3.200/oz - margin expansion trigger
6. ✓ Cost reduction initiative - operational efficiency improvement

Red Flags (Sinyal Risiko)h3

• 🔴 Gold price < US$2.000/oz (margin pressure severe)
• 🔴 Production decline 2+ quarters (mine depletion risk, operational issue)
• 🔴 Debt covenant breach announcement (refinance failure)
• 🔴 Major accident atau environmental incident (operational risk)
• 🔴 Regulatory change (stricter license terms, mining ban)
• 🔴 Deleveraging plan delayed/cancelled (financial risk return)

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Ringkasan & Level Kuncih2

Pada harga Rp 580, valuasi PSAB tergolong menarik dengan EV/EBITDA 7x (di bawah rata-rata peer 8-15x) dan expected return probability-weighted +51% forward (2 tahun) — payoff asimetris dengan profil profitable income plus moderate growth. Karakteristik ini relevan untuk profil growth investor (horizon 2-3 tahun), value investor (P/B 2,77x wajar untuk aset tambang), dan income investor (potensi dividen 2026+), dengan tingkat risiko yang moderate mengingat eksposur komoditas.

Level Rp 500-550 merepresentasikan area pelemahan yang secara historis relevan untuk dipantau, mengingat manfaat deleveraging dan potensi resume dividen baru akan terealisasi penuh dalam horizon 3+ tahun.

Level Harga Historis & Estimasi Valuasih3

Harga	Estimasi Valuasi	Konteks
Rp 450-500	Diskon signifikan	13-14% di bawah harga saat ini
Rp 500-550	Diskon moderat	5-13% di bawah harga saat ini
Rp 580	Fair	Harga saat ini, diskon tipis ke NAV
Rp 650-700	Masih wajar	12-21% premium, masih dapat diterima
>Rp 750	Mulai premium	P/E mulai mahal relatif ke historis

Target Harga (2-Tahun Forward)h3

Periode	Conservative	Base Case	Optimistic
6 Bulan	Rp 650	Rp 750	Rp 900
12 Bulan	Rp 700	Rp 850	Rp 1.100
24 Bulan	Rp 700	Rp 850	Rp 1.300

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MONITORING CHECKLIST (QUARTERLY)h2

Metrik Penting to Watch:

1. Production volume - oz emas diproduksi vs guidance
2. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) - cost efficiency trend
3. Cash position & debt level - deleveraging progress (target < 1,0x D/E)
4. Gold price realized - ASP (average selling price) per oz
5. EBITDA margin - operational performance stability
6. Interest expense - declining trend (dari deleveraging)

Annual Key Points:

1. Full year production - total oz diproduksi
2. Debt reduction achievement - path to < 1,0x D/E
3. Dividen announcement RUPS - payout policy & per share amount
4. Capex guidance - future investment plan untuk mine expansion

Sinyal Risiko Kritis (paling signifikan terhadap tesis):

• 🔴 Production miss 3+ months (guidance credibility loss)
• 🔴 Debt covenant breach warning (financial distress)
• 🔴 Gold price < US$1.800/oz sustained (structure break)
• 🔴 Major environmental/operational accident (license risk)
• 🔴 Deleveraging plan delay/cancel (financial risk return)

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Kesimpulanh2

Ringkasan Kekuatanh3

✓ Fundamental Solid:

• Profitable TTM Rp 500M (margin 10,8%)
• Strong cash generation (OCF Rp 2,6T, FCF Rp 2,1T)
• Healthy operational margins (53% EBITDA)
• Positive returns (ROE 9%, improving)

✓ Financial Normalizing:

• Deleveraging on track (D/E 2,0x → 1,3x → < 1,0x)
• Obligasi Rp 327M paid Oct 2025
• Planned debt reduction Rp 734M 2025
• Path to investment-grade leverage clear

✓ Growth Opportunity:

• Production stable 100.000+ oz annually
• Doup project upside (operated atau dijual)
• Penjom underground mining potential
• Gold price tailwind (US$2.300-3.300/oz)

✓ Valuasi Attractive:

• EV/EBITDA 7x (vs peer 8-15x)
• P/B 2,77x fair untuk mining asset
• Expected return +51% forward (2-tahun)

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Ringkasan Caution/Riskh3

🟡 Moderate Risks:

• Commodity price sensitivity (gold price is key variable)
• Mine depletion/operational risk (long-term, manageable)
• Altman 1,38 borderline (tapi improving trend jelas)
• No dividen sekarang (reinvest growth, OK untuk growth investor)

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Ringkasan:

PSAB menampilkan profil growth + income dengan horizon 2-3 tahun, di mana expected return probability-weighted +51% forward tergolong menarik relatif terhadap profil risikonya. Tesis ini bertumpu pada beberapa asumsi kunci: fundamental pasar emas yang stabil-hingga-menguat, eksposur terhadap volatilitas harga komoditas, keberhasilan proses deleveraging & normalisasi keuangan perusahaan, dan horizon holding menengah untuk realisasi recovery.

Level Rp 500-600 merepresentasikan area yang secara historis relevan sebagai referensi harga bagi yang memantau pergerakan saham ini.

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Analisis dibuat 24 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 & 9M 2025 data, operational updates December 2025 (obligasi repay, production guidance), dan gold market analysis terbaru.